British Prime Minister Tony Blair (shown in a June photo) said today that he was unsure if prewar Iraq’s alleged WMD would ever be found (AFP photo/Gerard Cerles). Alleged Iraqi WMD May Never be Found, Blair Says British Prime Minister Tony Blair said today that prewar Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction may never be found (see GSN, June 7). “We know [former Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction but we know we haven’t found them,” Blair said. “I have to accept we have not found them, that we may not find them,” he said...Full Story

IAEA Reports Few Instances of Diverted, Undeclared Nuclear Materials, Activities By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency last year found only two instances of diverted nuclear materials or of undeclared materials and activities in countries where safeguards inspections were conducted, the agency announced last week (see GSN, June 30)...Full Story

United Kingdom Says Iran Must Reassure World Iran has yet to convince the world that it is not developing nuclear weapons, a top British official said Sunday (see GSN, July 1)...Full Story

	Tuesday, July 6, 2004

Alleged Iraqi WMD May Never be Found, Blair Says British Prime Minister Tony Blair said today that prewar Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction may never be found (see GSN, June 7). “We know [former Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction but we know we haven’t found them,” Blair said. “I have to accept we have not found them, that we may not find them,” he said. Blair also said, though, that even if banned weapons are not found in Iraq, Hussein still posed a threat. “They could have been removed, they could have been hidden, they could have been destroyed,” Blair said. “The truth is, he was a threat,” he added (Mike Peacock, Reuters, July 6). Meanwhile, former British special envoy to Iraq, Jeremy Greenstock, said Sunday that he had been “wrong” to claim that prewar Iraq possessed large biological and chemical weapons stockpiles, according to the London Telegraph (Jones/Smith, London Telegraph, July 5). The United Kingdom’s inquiry into British prewar intelligence on Iraq is expected to criticize two top British intelligence officials — Joint Intelligence Committee head John Scarlett and MI6 chief Richard Dearlove, according to Agence France-Presse. The inquiry’s report is set to criticize the committee, which coordinates British intelligence efforts, for not including caveats from MI6 in the British government’s 2002 dossier on prewar Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts, according to AFP. The inquiry is expected to criticize MI6 for its poor assessments of prewar Iraq’s WMD efforts, AFP reported. In addition to Scarlett and Dearlove, the inquiry is expected to criticize British Attorney General Peter Goldsmith, according to AFP. A report on the inquiry’s findings is set to be released July 14 (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 4) Back to top       Asian Countries Warned About WMD Terrorism The recent discovery in the Philippines of a terrorist manual on development of chemical and biological weapons means Asian governments must prepare for attacks using those agents, government representatives were told Monday (see GSN, July 1). “There is a growing concern of the potential threat posed by chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists,” said Zainal Abidin Zain, director general of the Southeast Asia Regional Center for Counterterrorism, during a conference of chemical weapons experts in Malaysia. Rohan Gunaratna, head of the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore, discussed the Jemaah Islamiyah manual behind closed doors, due to its “sensitive nature,” according to Agence France-Presse. He told AFP that the manual, “discovered recently in the Philippines,” describes assembly of chemical and biological weapons “in a rudimentary way.” Gunaratna added that a Malaysian biochemist in detention in Malaysia had collaborated with al-Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah on an anthrax program (Hazlin Hassan, Agence France-Presse/IOL, July 5). Back to top       UNMOVIC to Exit U.N. Headquarters U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has ordered the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission to move from its offices in the U.N. headquarters to the former offices of the U.N. oil-for-food program, the Washington Times reported yesterday (see GSN, June 29). The commission, once responsible for WMD inspections in Iraq, was idled by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq last year. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric described the move of several blocks as “routine space management.” Commission officials, though, have complained that the new offices lack adequate security for the sensitive materials in the agency’s possession, such as U.S. and British intelligence files, according to the Times. The commission has hired a private security guard for its new offices, but the guard can only work from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. on weekdays, according to an official. “It is really serious,” a senior commission official said. “We have a lot of sensitive files, and I don’t know how they are going to be protected,” the official added (Stewart Stogel, Washington Times, July 5). Back to top       Senate Review Panel to Release Critical Report on Prewar Iraq Intelligence This Week The U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence is set to release a report this week criticizing the CIA for failing to collect adequate information on Iraq’s alleged prewar WMD efforts and faulting intelligence analysts for preparing poor reports on the information they possessed, according to the New York Times (see GSN, July 2). The Senate committee found that there were instances when CIA analysts distorted information to improve their case that prewar Iraq was engaged in WMD programs, according to U.S. officials. The committee also determined, though, that the analysts did not alter their reports due to pressure from the White House, according to officials familiar with the report. The committee’s report is expected to be strongly critical of CIA Director George Tenet — who is set to formally resign later this month — as well as other senior agency officials, including Deputy CIA Director John McLaughlin, who will serve as acting director once Tenet leaves, the Times reported. The committee’s report also reveals the existence of a prewar CIA program to debrief relatives of Iraqi WMD scientists, according to the Times. While the relatives told the agency that Iraq had abandoned its WMD efforts, it did not include that information in intelligence reports distributed throughout the government, according to U.S. officials. A CIA spokesman said that the relatives’ statements were “not at all convincing.” “There was nothing definitive about it,” the spokesman said. “No useful information was collected from the family members, and that’s why it wouldn't have been disseminated,” the spokesman added (James Risen, New York Times, July 6). Back to top       U.S. Democratic Party Platform Emphasizes National Security, Blocking Nuclear Terror An early draft of the U.S. Democratic Party’s political platform, which will be presented during the party’s presidential convention later this month, emphasizes national security issues and calls for increased focus on preventing nuclear terrorism, the New York Times reported Sunday (see GSN, June 2). The platform is being prepared by a committee led by Representative Rosa DeLauro (Conn.) and will be presented to the party’s platform committee next weekend during a meeting in Miami. The final platform will then be subject to a party vote during the Democratic presidential convention in Boston. “This platform reflects John Kerry,” DeLauro said, referring to the Massachusetts senator who is the party’s presumptive presidential nominee for this year’s election. “It shows what Democrats believe and what direction the country can go in under a Kerry presidency,” she added. Nearly the entire first half of the platform is dedicated to national security issues, about twice as much space as national security has taken in the last three Democratic platforms, according to the Times. While not entirely ruling out the use of pre-emptive military action, the Democratic platform describes it as an act of last resort and not a part of standard U.S. policy, the Times reported. The platform criticizes President George W. Bush for failing to focus on the suspected nuclear efforts of Iran and North Korea, and calls for direct talks with Pyongyang, according to the Times. The platform also calls for a cutoff to weapon-grade material production. “There’s a priority on nuclear terrorism because that is something we can actually do a lot to prevent, unlike terror in general,” said Harvard University professor Ashton Carter, who helped create the new national security policy approach in the platform. “We can stop the production of the source material,” he said (Rosenbaum/Sanger, New York Times, July 4). Back to top       Security High for U.S. Political Conventions The United States is stepping up security efforts as its two major political parties prepare for their presidential nominating conventions this summer, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 24). The Democratic Party convention in Boston and Republican Party convention in New York “will bring to bear more protective measures than any in history, and while many of these measures can be seen, others like weapons of mass destruction detection equipment won’t be seen,” said Homeland Security Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse. U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups are determined to launch an election-altering attack on the United States similar to the March 11 Madrid train bombings that preceded the defeat of Spain’s government days later. Such conclusions are based on what officials refer to as incontrovertible classified intelligence, including electronic surveillance. However, officials added that they have no intelligence specifying the time or place of an attack, according to the Post. Federal agents are due to inspect sewers and weld shut manholes around the two convention centers, and to remove nearby mailboxes and most trash cans, according to the Post. Coast Guard craft are set to survey waterways, while police officers guard ventilation systems of hotels where delegates stay, and dozens of emergency response teams wait in warehouses in case of chemical or biological attack (John Mintz, Washington Post, July 6). Back to top

IAEA Reports Few Instances of Diverted, Undeclared Nuclear Materials, Activities By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency last year found only two instances of diverted nuclear materials or of undeclared materials and activities in countries where safeguards inspections were conducted, the agency announced last week (see GSN, June 30). Last year, the agency conducted safeguards activities in 40 non-nuclear weapons-states where both comprehensive safeguards agreements and the Additional Protocol were in force or being applied. Under comprehensive safeguards agreements, countries are required to accept IAEA safeguards on all fissionable materials. The Additional Protocol to a country’s safeguards agreement gives that agency the ability to conduct more intrusive monitoring of a country’s nuclear activities. The Bush administration has proposed making the Additional Protocol a requirement for countries seeking access to nuclear materials.     There were 40 countries in 2003 in which both comprehensive safeguards agreements and the Additional Protocol were in effect. The organization found no indications of diversion of nuclear materials or of undeclared materials and activities in 19 of those nations, the agency said in its annual safeguards statement. The 19 countries were Australia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Ecuador, Ghana, the Holy See, Hungary, Indonesia, Japan, Jordan, Latvia, Lithuania, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia and Uzbekistan.  In an additional 19 countries, the agency found no indication of nuclear materials diversion, but was still working to evaluate possible undeclared materials and/or nuclear programs. Spokesman Mark Gwozdecky refused to comment last week on when the agency might complete its safeguards conclusions for the remaining countries, noting that a “variety of factors” may need to be addressed. “Conclusions can only be drawn when the agency has had sufficient information and has completed sufficient activities to do so, including resolving any questions or inconsistencies with regard to declared information,” he said in a written response to Global Security Newswire. The remaining two countries — Iran and Libya — were found last year to have violated their safeguards agreements by engaging in undeclared nuclear activities, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran claims is intended for civilian power production only, has been the subject of several IAEA reports and Board of Governors’ resolutions. Most recently, Iran announced last month that it would resume producing uranium enrichment centrifuge components, and Iranian lawmakers said last week that they may move to scrap an agreement reached last year with three European countries under which Tehran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment in return for nuclear technology (see related GSN story, today). Libya revealed earlier this year that it had covertly obtained uranium enrichment technology, which was subsequently dismantled and shipped to the United States as part of Libya’s pledge to end its WMD efforts. In March, the IAEA Board of Governors approved a resolution referring the Libyan case to the U.N. Security Council, but indicated no need for further action against Tripoli since it had “remedied the situation,” Gwozdecky said. The IAEA also conducted last year safeguards activities in 98 countries that had comprehensive safeguards agreements in place but lacked the Additional Protocol. Of these countries, 36 of which had “significant nuclear activities,” no indications were found of diversion of nuclear materials that had been placed under IAEA safeguards, the agency said. The agency was unable last year to conduct safeguards inspections in North Korea due to Pyongyang’s decision in late 2002 to expel agency personnel who had been monitoring the 1994 nuclear freeze agreement there. In June of last year, the agency conducted safeguards activities in Iraq to verify the nuclear material subject to safeguards at the Tuwaitha nuclear complex. In April 2003, the nuclear materials stored at Tuwaitha, such as natural and low enriched uranium, were subject to looting and as much as 10 kilograms of material may have been dispersed, the agency said. It added, though, that the amount and type of missing material was “not sensitive from a proliferation point of view” (see GSN, May 24). In addition, the agency found no signs last year of diverted nuclear materials that had been placed under agency safeguards and no signs of misuse of nuclear-related facilities and equipment under safeguards in Cuba, India, Israel and Pakistan. These four countries have “item-specific” safeguards agreements in place with the organization. Under such agreements, the agency is required to ensure that the specific nuclear-related items placed under safeguards are not diverted to military uses. Early this year, top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan confessed to having transferred nuclear-related technologies to Iran, Libya and North Korea; and there is suspicion that other countries may have also been clients. The agency did not note such transfers in its 2003 safeguards statements, however, because the lack of a full-scope safeguards agreement with Pakistan means the agency does not have authority there, Gwozdecky said (see GSN, June 23). Safeguards activities were conducted last year at “selected facilities” of four of the five declared nuclear weapons states — China, France, the United Kingdom and the United States — according to the agency. In those four countries, the agency found no diversion of nuclear materials that had been placed under safeguards.  “On this basis … the agency concluded that the nuclear material under safeguards remained in peaceful nuclear activities or was otherwise adequately accounted for,” the agency said. Russia is the fifth recognized nuclear weapons state. In the five nuclear weapons-states, the agency has in effect “voluntary offer agreements,” under which each country has offered some of its civilian nuclear materials and/or facilities from which the agency may choose which to impose safeguards. No facilities were selected in Russia last year for the application of agency safeguards, the agency said in its report. By the end of last year, 45 non-nuclear weapons-states that are NPT members had not yet brought into force comprehensive safeguards agreements as required under the treaty. As a result, the agency was unable to conduct safeguards activities in those countries. Back to top       United Kingdom Says Iran Must Reassure World Iran has yet to convince the world that it is not developing nuclear weapons, a top British official said Sunday (see GSN, July 1). “Where they have not helped themselves is in not providing full and frank disclosures to the International Atomic Energy Agency,” said British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw. He added that he was not certain whether he believed Tehran’s assertion it is not seeking nuclear weapons. “‘I’m not sure,’ is the answer,” said Straw. “And nobody is,” he added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, July 4). Back to top       ElBaradei Visits Israel to Urge Nuclear-Free Middle East; Sharon Says “Ambiguous” Policy to Continue Hours before a visit today from the top international nuclear official, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon announced that his country’s “ambiguous” nuclear policy would not change, the BBC reported (see GSN, June 28). International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei is expected to press for a nuclear arms-free Middle East during his two-day visit to Israel, according to the BBC. Israel, however, does not plan to alter its “no show, no tell” nuclear arms policy, Sharon told Israeli Army Radio. “I don’t know what he [ElBaradei] is coming to see,” Sharon said. “Israel has to hold in its hand all the elements of power necessary to protect itself by itself,” he added. “Our policy of ambiguity on nuclear arms has proved its worth, and it will continue,” Sharon said (BBC, July 6). Meanwhile, Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission launched a Web site on Sunday that includes photographs of its two nuclear plants, Dimona and Nahal Sorek, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, July 4). ElBaradei would not be permitted to visit the Dimona facility during his visit, Haaretz daily reported, according to the Xinhua News Agency (Xinhua, July 5). Back to top       Russia-North Korea Meeting Could Help, Official Says Russia’s foreign minister said yesterday that meetings in Pyongyang with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il left him optimistic about ongoing nuclear talks (see GSN, July 2). “At the meeting with Kim Jong Il, and at the meeting with North Korea’s foreign minister, there was a general consensus that the positive momentum on the third round of six-way talks in June allow us to count that, with proper preparation, quite concrete results will be achieved during the fourth round,” said Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who met with top officials in North and South Korea over the past three days (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 5). Lavrov added that a deal requiring dismantlement of Pyongyang’s nuclear programs would probably develop in stages, Interfax reported. “The emergency awareness of the need to move forward in stages and (the idea) that the first stage must rely on the formula of a freeze in exchange for compensation have to be consolidated,” Lavrov said, according to the Associated Press (Mara Bellaby, Associated Press, July 6). Meanwhile, Kim told a senior Chinese official that he hopes to visit South Korea “at an appropriate time,” a former South Korean presidential aide said Sunday, according to Yonhap. Kim Han-jung, an aide to former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, said he heard about the North Korean leader’s intent to visit “from a Chinese official who Kim met in person when he visited China (in April),” the Associated Press reported (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 4). Elsewhere, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Friday he hoped to normalize relations with North Korea within a year, AFP reported. “It will be good if we can do so within a year. I believe the sooner the better,” Koizumi said. Earlier in the week, Koizumi had said he hoped the normalization could come “within two years” (Agence France-Presse, July 2). Back to top       Togo Ratifies Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Togo submitted its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty on July 2, according to the CTBT Organization (see GSN, June 15).  To date, 115 countries have ratified the agreement, including 32 of the 44 nations whose ratifications are necessary for the treaty to enter into force (CTBT Organization release, July 6). Back to top

2001 Anthrax Was Mix of Two Samples Anthrax used in the 2001 mail attacks was a mixture of two slightly different samples, providing a distinct signature that could be matched with a source, the Baltimore Sun reported Sunday (see GSN, June 29). FBI scientific consultants made the discovery at least a year ago, according to the Sun. The bureau has since screened dozens of anthrax samples collected from all over the United States and some foreign countries, according to a scientist who advises the agency. The FBI said last week that its anthrax tests have not been completed, but declined to comment further on the investigation. Some biology experts said the new information has probably helped the FBI narrow its search by now. “I think we have the science now to trace the anthrax to a particular lab,” said Babetta Marrone, a cell biologist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and a member of an FBI advisory group on bioforensics. However, she added that identifying the source lab would serve to narrow the number of potential suspects rather than specifically identifying the perpetrator of the attacks (Scott Shane, Baltimore Sun, July 4). Back to top       Scientists Create 3-D Image of Anthrax Infection Scientists have created a three-dimensional molecular image of how anthrax toxin infects human cells, giving researchers more potential targets for blocking the toxin, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases announced today (see GSN, June 30). “This elegant work provides important new leads for the development of novel antitoxins to protect people from anthrax, a dangerous and serious bioterror threat,” said institute Director Anthony Fauci. “It also leads us closer to therapies that could save lives late in the disease when large amounts of toxin are present and antibiotics are less effective,” he added. The institute-funded study was led by Robert Liddington of the Burnham Institute in La Jolla, Calif. (NIAID release, July 4). Back to top

Most Iraqi Rockets Discovered by Polish Troops Do Not Contain Chemical Agents, Coalition Says Only two of 18 rocket warheads discovered in Iraq in recent weeks by Polish troops contain even a trace amount of chemical weapons agents, a coalition spokesman said Friday (see GSN, July 2). Sixteen 122 mm rockets, which had initially tested positive for sarin after being found last week, “were all empty and tested negative for any type of chemicals,” according to the Coalition Press Information Center. Two other 122 mm rockets that were discovered by Polish troops on June 16 did test positive for small amounts of sarin, but were “so deteriorated” they would have had “limited to no impact” if used, the coalition said. Polish forces in Iraq purchased the two 122 mm rockets on June 16 after an Iraqi informant told them that militants were seeking to buy such weapons, according to Polish army intelligence chief Marek Dukaczewski. “We bought all the shells available,” Dukaczewski said. A senior U.S. intelligence official said he had not known that Polish troops purchased the rockets. The United States was told that the rockets had been found at several sites mixed with conventional rockets, the official said (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, July 3). A spokesman for the Polish troops in Iraq, Col. Robert Strzelecki, on Saturday continued to assert that the rockets contained chemical weapons. “In each of the missiles found, the presence of a chemical substance was found. It was cyclosarin,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Tehran Times, July 3). Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said yesterday that his country was still waiting for the results of U.S. tests conducted on the rockets. “We still do not have full information [on] what has been found. Let’s remain calm,” he said (Associated Press, July 5). Back to top       Iran Wants Hussein Prosecuted for Chemical Attacks Iraq’s invasion of Iran in 1980 and its use of chemical weapons during the two countries’ eight-year war must not be forgotten as former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is prosecuted, Iranian officials said Sunday (see GSN, July 1). “One of [the] crimes Saddam committed was his invasion of Iran and starting the war, killing many Iranian citizens and using chemical weapons in Halabja (within Iraq) and other places (in Iran) during the war,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi, according to the Associated Press.  “We have prepared [a] complaint and Iran will definitely file the complaint with the Iraqi court,” he said. “We will hand over our documents to the court. … We believe the court has to investigate Saddam’s crimes transparently and openly,” he added (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 4). Among the seven charges filed against Hussein by the Iraqi Special Tribunal last week was the chemical bombardment of Halabja, according to the Washington Times. Additional charges can still be filed, said Salem Chalabi, the tribunal’s executive director. “The hearing (last week) was one in which just some of the principal — though not exclusive — charges were laid out,” Chalabi said. Victims of one chemical attack on the Iranian town of Sardasht are eager to have the former dictator answer for the action, the Times reported. “The greatest aspect of this crime was the silence we heard from both Iran and the international community,” said Hossein Mohammadian a survivor of the Sardasht bombing and author of a book chronicling the attack. “If this court trying Saddam is to be a just and humane court and not be a tool for political and economic interests, it must include Sardasht,” he added. “It’s been 17 years,” Mohammadian went on. “Even if the international community would just acknowledge what happened, we’d be grateful,” he added (Borzou Daragahi, Washington Times, July 6). Back to top

India Tests Nuclear-Capable Agni Ballistic Missile India successfully tested a short-range variant of its Agni nuclear-capable ballistic missile Sunday, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, July 2). The solid-fuel missile, with a maximum range of 700 kilometers, was tested from a mobile launcher at Wheeler Island off India’s eastern coast. Senior Indian officials, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, reportedly praised defense scientists for the test. Pakistani officials did not criticize the test. “We reserve the sovereign right to improve our defense capability and [the] same right [should] be granted to other countries,” said Mushahid Hussain, chairman of Pakistan’s senate foreign relations committee (Pratap Mohanty, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 5). Back to top

Airborne Laser Faces More Delays The U.S. Airborne Laser, planned as a component of U.S. missile defenses, will probably not be deployed by 2006 as had been previously suggested, the head of the Missile Defense Agency said last week (see GSN, March 12). Due to the difficulties of integrating the system’s “revolutionary” technologies, the laser will not be included in Block 2004, the set of U.S. missile defense systems to be deployed later this year, according to Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish. The Block 2004 system is set to operate until fiscal 2006, according to Jane’s Defense Weekly. “(ABL) could contribute within the Block ’04 time frame but right now it is better that we don’t plan it to,” said Kadish who is retiring this month.  “I think we need patience with the ABL,” he said. “I am very encouraged and getting increasingly confident that we are going to be able to make this happen,” Kadish added (Michael Sirak, Jane’s Defense Weekly, July 7). Meanwhile, the Missile Defense Agency on Saturday held an official dedication ceremony at Fort Greely, Alaska to mark the completion of major construction of a missile interceptor base to be used as part of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense program, according to the Anchorage Daily News (see GSN, July 2; Dan Rice, Anchorage Daily News, July 6).     Back to top

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