By Chris Schneidmiller Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — The agreement between the United States and United Kingdom to share nuclear weapons information and technology appears set to be quietly extended for another decade, despite some critics’ concerns that it undermines nonproliferation efforts focused on countries such as Iran and North Korea (see GSN, Aug. 8, 2003). Article 3 bis of the 1958 Mutual Defense Agreement would expire on Dec. 31 without action, but that appears unlikely to occur. Over the objections of some members of Parliament, the British government has already approved a 10-year extension. U.S. President George W. Bush also in June signed off on the agreement, which would be automatically approved under federal law if Congress makes no objections within “60 days of continuous session.” “The U.K. side of this is complete,” British Labor Party MP Alan Simpson told Global Security Newswire. “I don’t suspect it will be challenged in the U.S,” he added. In the contract, the United States and United Kingdom pledge to “communicate to or exchange with the other party such classified information, sensitive nuclear technology, and controlled nuclear information” needed for the allies’ nuclear defense plans, delivery systems and military reactors. The agreement does not include transfer of actual nuclear weapons, but allows for exchange of enriched uranium. “The United Kingdom intends to continue to maintain viable nuclear forces,” Bush said in a June 14 message to Congress. “In light of our previous close cooperation and the fact that the United Kingdom has committed its nuclear forces to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, I have concluded it is in our interest to assist them in maintaining a credible nuclear force,” he added. The agreement allows the two allies to ensure the safety, security and reliability of their respective nuclear arsenals, said Simon Shercliff, a spokesman for the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. The extension would continue that cooperation, he said. Details of what has been exchanged under this agreement remain classified. However, it is “almost a certainty” that the United States shared warhead design information for its submarine-based Trident ballistic nuclear missiles, given the strong similarities between the two countries’ systems, said Matt Martin, deputy director for the British American Security Information Council (BASIC). Renewing the agreement could open the door for development of a replacement for the British Trident system, according to BASIC (see GSN, Oct. 3, 2002). The two countries could collaborate on new weapons such as low-yield nuclear bombs or the “bunker buster,” according to critics, who also fear the agreement could be used to perform an end-run around barriers to nuclear development in either country (see GSN, July 16). For example, U.S. officials could send information on the bunker buster to the United Kingdom for further work if they are unable to obtain approval for development here, Martin argued. Even if that occurred, the weapon under the pact could not be sent back to its country of origin, countered Stephen Rademaker, U.S. assistant secretary of state for arms control, in an interview last week with GSN. Rademaker also rejected the results of a legal analysis commissioned by BASIC and other nonproliferation groups that found that the agreement violates the spirit — and possibly the letter of the law — of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Article 1 of the treaty forbids member states from transferring any nuclear weapons to another country or entity, while Article 6 requires members to “pursue negotiations in good faith” toward nuclear disarmament. Critics acknowledge that the Mutual Defense Agreement does not involve transfer of weaponry. They argue, however, the pact breaks the commitment to disarm by sharing information and equipment that could be used to develop new weapons. There is nothing in the Nonproliferation Treaty that requires the five recognized nuclear states not to share information or seek new weaponry, Rademaker said. He pointed to the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty, under which the United States and Russia agreed to reduce their respective deployed strategic nuclear warheads to no more than 2,200, as an indication of the administration’s disarmament work (see GSN, June 22). “The United States doesn’t feel that it has any apologies to make,” Rademaker said. Problems with the agreement go beyond its Nonproliferation Treaty implications, critics said. The two countries give up the moral high ground by operating a secretive nuclear agreement while pressing other countries to abandon nuclear or WMD programs, Simpson said. Global opinions on the war in Iraq would be greatly different if Saddam Hussein had been found operating a secret program to share nuclear weapons information with an ally, he said. “It completely undermines any chance the United Kingdom has to organize against the proliferation of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction around the world,” said David Lowry, an independent consultant for nuclear matters for British Labor Party MP Llew Smith. The ScheduleFollowing negotiations during the spring, Rademaker signed the extension agreement with British representative Frank Baker on June 14 in Washington. The amendment changes the expiration date for the information-sharing agreement from Dec. 31, 2004, to Dec. 31, 2014, and updates text in the contract to correspond to personnel and physical security policies made over the last decade. The proposal was forwarded for consideration to the U.S. Congress and the British Parliament in June. The British government, however, rejected a motion signed by 43 members of Parliament to open the matter for debate, Simpson said. Instead, it included the agreement in a series of routine legislative matters that could be removed from the docket but could not be argued. Simpson said he did not recollect if anyone tried to remove the MDA amendment before its passage, but said the British leadership simply would have kept bringing it back until it was approved. Beginning in mid-June, the agreement must sit before Congress for 60 session days under the 1954 U.S. Atomic Energy Act. If no action is taken, it goes into effect following an exchange of messages between the two countries. That is expected to happen before the end of the year. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee and House International Relations Committee would have jurisdiction over the agreement. The Senate committee has not set its fall schedule, but with most legislators out of Washington during the summer recess, it would be difficult to know if matter would come up before Congress’ Oct. 1 target closing date for the 2004 session, said Andy Fisher, spokesman for committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). Lawmakers could issue a resolution of disapproval for the amendment, but the president could veto any effort to block the extension, Rademaker said. Congress should at least hold a hearing to allow members to be informed and to enable nongovernmental agencies to file their opinions on the extension, Martin said. “I can’t imagine it’s going to happen,” he said. “I don’t know that most members of Congress even know this arrangement exists,” Martin said. “Unless they’re made to look they’re not going to know,” he added.
The United States would not rule out covert military action against Iranian nuclear installations, the New York Sun reported today (see GSN, Aug. 5). The Bush administration is considering “many means” to prevent the Islamic republic from building a nuclear weapon, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said yesterday on NBC’s Meet the Press. “We cannot allow the Iranians to develop a nuclear weapon,” she said. “The president will look at all the tools that are available to him,” she added (Luiza Savage, New York Sun, Aug. 9). The United States has been calling attention to Iran’s nuclear development for 3 1/2 years, and the world is finally “worried and suspicious” about those activities, Rice said. “The United States was the first to say that Iran was a threat in this way, to try and convince the international community that Iran was trying, under the cover of a civilian nuclear program, to actually bring about a nuclear weapons program,” she said. “I think we’ve finally now got the world community to a place, and the [International Atomic Energy Agency] to a place, that it is worried and suspicious of the Iranian activities,” said Rice. “Iran is facing for the first time real resistance to trying to take these steps,” she added (William Mann, Associated Press/San Francisco Chronicle, Aug. 9). Meanwhile, Iranian officials said they would retaliate if the U.N. Security Council imposes sanctions on their country, the Financial Times reported. “You don't expect a country like Iran to be pushed around and take it sitting down,” said Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s U.N. ambassador. “What is important is that our integrity is not to be bargained or up for sale. We react very strongly when we see people trying to undermine our national integrity,” he added. Iran rejected a request from France, Germany and the United Kingdom during talks last week in Paris to “relinquish” control of uranium enrichment as a “confidence-building measure,” said Hossein Mussavian, foreign policy chairman of the Supreme National Security Council. The Europeans proposed that Iran receive an international supply of enriched uranium and that resulting spent fuel be removed, according to the Times. Talks with the European powers would continue, according to Mussavian, who considers it “very unlikely” that they would support a referral to the U.N. Security Council. The situation is “on the verge of something drastic,” according to an anonymous Iranian official in Tehran. Iranian security officials expect the International Atomic Energy Agency to pass a critical resolution in September and they believe that the United States might launch attack targets in Iran, he added. “If there is more criticism in September, Iran will remove the (IAEA) cameras (at nuclear sites) and start injecting the gas (the final stage of uranium enrichment),” he said. “Iran notes the example of North Korea, a regime the U.S. is negotiating with,” he added. “Radicals” are thinking of “stupid things against the U.S. and even Europe,” the official said, recalling the days when Iran “carried out assassinations” in Europe (Smyth/Dinmore, Financial Times, Aug. 8).
Iran and North Korea have made significant progress in their nuclear programs despite U.S. diplomatic efforts with its Asian and European allies, according to U.S. intelligence officials and outside nuclear experts (see GSN, July 12). While Iran seems to be keeping within the bounds of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, it probably has the ability to switch gears and begin nuclear weapons work at any time, said Robert Gates, the director of central intelligence under President George H.W. Bush. “The evidence suggests that Iran is trying to keep all of its options open,” Gates said last week at a conference on nuclear terrorism and the spread of unconventional weapons. “They are trying to stay just within their treaty obligations” while producing highly enriched uranium, “and I think they can go with a weapon whenever they want to,” said Gates, now president of Texas A&M University. Iran is assembling the necessary ingredients and might be using a Chinese- origin bomb design that the nuclear network operated by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan sold to Libya, intelligence experts said. They added that the Islamic republic might be just a few years away from developing a working nuclear device. A cautiously worded U.S. intelligence report on North Korea asserts that Pyongyang now probably has enough weapon-grade plutonium to test a bomb in the future, which would allow it to demonstrate its capability, according to the New York Times. A “whiff” of a nuclear byproduct detected by an American spy plane off the coast of North Korea last year is believed to be evidence that plutonium reprocessing was under way in the communist nation, said Gary Samore, who led nonproliferation work at the National Security Council under President Bill Clinton and has conducted a detailed assessment of North Korea for the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London (see GSN, July 21, 2003). However, some intelligence analysts say North Korea may have run into difficulty in the chemical process of converting spent fuel into bomb material (see GSN, Sept. 12, 2003). “The conventional wisdom now is that they have completely reprocessed all of [the spent plutonium fuel],” Samore said. “They had a huge window of opportunity when we were invading Iraq, and they appear to have made maximum use of it,” he added (see GSN, April 28). “It’s very frustrating,” said one former official who left the Bush administration recently and believes that the administration has failed to set “red lines” beyond which North Korea would not be allowed to expand its nuclear work. The official noted that the Bush administration has been touting Libya as a disarmament model for North Korea and Iran, highlighting the North African nation’s re-establishment of political and economic ties with the West as its reward (see GSN, March 8). However, the official argued, such an offer was unlikely to tempt Iran because it does strong trade with Europe. Likewise, North Korea still receives considerable aid from China, the official added. Bush administration and intelligence officials say they are exploring ways to use unspecified covert actions “to disrupt or delay as long as we can” Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons efforts, according to the Times. However, former Clinton administration officials and other experts say such covert action would likely be less effective than in the past, as the Iranian program is increasingly self-sufficient. “It’s a much harder thing to accomplish today than it would have been in the ‘90s,” said one senior U.S. intelligence official, citing assistance to Iran by the network built by Khan. The scientist’s sales have also complicated efforts to disarm North Korea, according to intelligence reports. Meanwhile, Israel’s increasing concern over Iran’s nuclear program has made military action an option. “They are doing what they can to delay the Iranian program and preparing military options,” said one official who has dealt with the Israeli government on the issue (David Sanger, New York Times, Aug. 8).
By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — A bill introduced late last month in the U.S. House of Representatives would limit U.S. aid to Pakistan if Islamabad fails to sufficiently help U.S. efforts to investigate the international nuclear black market formerly headed by top Pakistani nuclear weapons scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan (see GSN, July 26). The Nuclear Black Market Elimination Act would limit U.S. aid to Pakistan to 75 percent of a year’s allotted funds unless the president certified to Congress that Pakistan was “fully sharing” all relevant information to the international nuclear network and had provided U.S. investigators with full access to Khan and his associates. The bill would also require certification that Pakistan had “verifiably halted” any nuclear- and missile-related cooperation with other countries before receiving full U.S. aid. The aid restriction could be waived if it were found to be in the interest of national security interest and determined to help increase Pakistani cooperation in efforts to investigate the nuclear network. The bill would also provide the president with the authority to impose sanctions against any foreign entity found to have provided enrichment or reprocessing technology to a country determined to be seeking nuclear weapons or that has not provided the International Atomic Energy Agency with the authority to conduct more intrusive nuclear monitoring. The sanctions envisioned in the bill would prevent the targeted entity from engaging in transactions with any U.S. entity for a period of at least three years. Representative Tom Lantos (Calif.), the top Democrat on the House International Relations Committee, introduced the bill on July 22. The bill’s four co-sponsors include Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), who was one of the main authors of the Syria Accountability Act, which imposed sanctions against Damascus for failing to cease its suspected efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, May 12). Khan confessed early this year to transferring Pakistani nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea; and there is concern that other countries may have also been recipients. To date, the Bush administration has shown little interest in punishing Pakistan for the illicit transfers, supporting instead the assertions by Pakistani leaders that the smuggling occurred without official approval. U.S. lawmakers, though, have criticized Islamabad for failing to provide the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency with full access to Khan and his associates to aid efforts to further investigate the network. A Democratic congressional staff member said today that while the bill has yet to be brought to the White House’s attention, he expected the administration’s reaction to be “negative.” While denying that the bill specifically targeted Pakistan, the staff member acknowledged the key role of Pakistani nuclear scientists in the international network. The staff member also suggested, though, that the section related to Pakistan could be later removed from the bill. “If they were allowing full access to Khan … then there would be no need for that provision,” the staff member said. The Pakistani Embassy in Washington did not return calls for comment. South Asian expert Michael Krepon, president emeritus of the Henry L. Stimson Center, today said that the bill would likely be considered as a “slap in the face” in Pakistan and would not result in increased cooperation. If U.S. lawmakers “feel compelled to send messages to Pakistan,” Krepon said, “I don’t think this is the best way to do this.” Krepon also said that he would be “very much surprised” if Pakistan made Khan available to U.S. officials for interrogation, noting that the Pakistani public would likely see such a move as “disrespectful.” Khan has long been held in high esteem in Pakistan for his role as the “father” of the country’s nuclear weapons program. The bill was referred to the House International Relations Committee, but little is expected to happen before the 2004 session ends on Oct. 1. The staff member said the bill would probably be reintroduced during the next congressional session, adding that an effort was being made to add co-sponsors to the legislation. While the proposal would restrict U.S. aid to Pakistan if it were found to be hindering efforts to investigate the nuclear black market, there is little support within Congress for directly cutting U.S. aid to Islamabad, according to the staff member. The White House’s fiscal 2005 budget request contains the first allotment of a planned five-year, $3 billion economic and security aid package to Pakistan. Noting the belief among lawmakers that Pakistan was “crucial” to the U.S. war on terrorism, the staff member said that the planned aid package would be unaffected unless Pakistan “does something stupid.” As examples, the staff member cited theoretical revelations of continuing transfers of Pakistani nuclear technology or official cooperation with the suspected nuclear weapons efforts of Iran and North Korea. “There’s a point where you can’t ignore particular activity,” the staff member said.
U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin abandoned efforts Friday to win a contract to manage the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, a facility that has come under fire for security concerns, according to the Alameda Times-Star (see GSN, Aug. 5). The recent security issues at Los Alamos, stemming from the disappearance last month of two computer disks containing classified information, were part of Lockheed’s decision to “look at the resources it would take to manage the contract,” company spokeswoman Wendy Owen said Lockheed Martin manages the Sandia National Laboratories and an Energy Department atomic power laboratory, and also is part of the management of the United Kingdom’s nuclear weapons laboratory. Owen said that Lockheed has decided to focus on managing those facilities (Ian Hoffman, Alameda Times-Star, Aug. 7).
International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have found that none of the natural uranium stored at the Tuwaitha nuclear complex in Iraq is missing, the agency announced Saturday (see GSN, Aug. 4). IAEA inspectors conducted an inventory of “several tons” of natural uranium stored at the site, agency spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. The material poses little proliferation risk, according to the Associated Press (George Jahn, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 7). The inventory was required as part of the safeguards agreement that the agency has in place with Iraq, according to an agency press release (IAEA release, Aug. 7).
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