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Iran Needs at Least Five Years for Bomb, Study Finds
Iran could develop a nuclear weapons capacity in five years with a fully committed effort, according to a study released today by a London-based think tank (see GSN, Aug. 26). “We estimate, if everything goes right, if they throw all their effort into solving their problems, they might be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear weapon within five years,” Gary Samore, editor of the report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told BBC radio. However, Samore said Iran was more likely to acquire production capability over 10 or 15 years before deciding whether to acquire a nuclear bomb. The report also says it is unlikely that Iran has stockpiled significant amounts of undeclared nuclear weapons materials, but that its ability to design and manufacture a nuclear weapon was less clear. In addition, the document warns of the consequences of a nuclear-capable Iran. “At worst, it could lead to a long-term erosion of the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty, as additional countries sought to hedge their bets by acquiring latent nuclear weapons capability under the guise of dual use fuel-cycle programs,” it says (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Sept. 6). The International Atomic Energy Agency said in a report Friday to its Board of Governors Friday that Iran has produced about 7 tons of uranium hexafluoride — enough for an atomic bomb — since resuming reprocessing last month, the Associated Press reported. The confidential report obtained by AP says the agency was unable “to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran.” “Iran’s full transparency is indispensable and overdue,” it says. It calls on Iran to provide “access to individuals, documentation related to procurement ... certain military-owned workshops and research and development locations.” The report cites gaps in documentation provided by Tehran detailing the development of its centrifuge program. The report did, however, confirm that most of the traces of weapon-grade uranium found on Iranian equipment originated in Pakistan — though it added that it could not determine the origins of low-enriched uranium traces. The document reports on Iranian activities through the end of last month, when inspectors last visited the Isfahan uranium conversion facility, according to AP (George Jahn, Associated Press/Washington Post, Sept. 3). The report provides the United States and the European Union with ample evidence to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions, said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. “It again shows that Iran is not willing to cooperate to clear up what are violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” he said. A senior U.S. diplomat said that unless Iran ceases uranium conversion, cooperates with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, and returns to negotiations with the European Union, the IAEA board should refer the matter to the Security Council, Agence France-Presse reported (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/Hindustan Times, Sept. 4). Iran believes the report “contains errors” and makes “excessive” demands on Tehran, a senior official there said today. “Iran’s response to the report is being prepared and will be given to the IAEA soon. This response is in fact a rejection of the report by the director general, which contains errors,” said nuclear negotiator Ali Agha Mohammadi. “In certain cases, the report includes excessive demands and inspections that go beyond” those required by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, he said (Agence France-Presse/IranMania.com, Sept. 7). Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, meanwhile, said Iran would move to satisfy international concerns as it continues with its nuclear development, AFP reported today. “Having said this principle, that we are determined to have nuclear technology, at the same time we are fully prepared to have any negotiation or discussion to remove the international concern,” Larijani said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 7). Top deputies in Iran’s parliament, however, threatened to limit international inspections at the country’s nuclear sites, AFP reported yesterday. If the West “wishes to deprive Iran of its rights by using political pressure, a suitable decision will be taken such as a halt to inspections or a halt in the application of the Additional Protocol [to Iran’s IAEA safeguards agreement],” said foreign policy commission spokesman Kazem Jalali (Agence France-Presse/IranMania.com, Sept. 6). French President Jacques Chirac took a hard line with Iran Monday, warning Tehran that it would face the Security Council if it did not abide by a nuclear freeze as declared under November’s Paris Agreement. “The use of civilian nuclear energy, which is perfectly legitimate, must not serve as a pretext for pursuing activities that could actually be aimed at building up a military nuclear arsenal,” Chirac said (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/Washington Post, Sept. 1). British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, however, said Friday that London hopes Tehran will resume negotiations, Reuters reported. “We want to see these talks resumed because we not only believe this is in the interests of the international community but also in the interests of Iran,” he said (Reuters, Sept. 2). The European Union, though, has lost hope that Iran will reinstate a nuclear freeze or resume nuclear negotiations, a senior EU diplomat said yesterday. Iran’s decision to reject EU incentives and instead resume uranium conversion meant that the EU’s diplomatic role was effectively finished, he told AFP. “If the Iranians changed their minds and decided to restart the suspension or discuss restarting the suspension, I think that would be very interesting, but that doesn’t seem remotely likely,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 6). Russia, however, remains opposed to referring Iran’s case to the Security Council, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Yakovenko told Interfax (Reuters, Sept. 5). Meanwhile, an Iranian exile group said last week that China had provided Iran with dual-use material that could be used in a nuclear weapons program, Reuters reported. The National Council of Resistance of Iran said Iran obtained beryllium, a substance under international export controls, from China last year. “The (Iranian) Ministry of Defense is vigorously trying to obtain beryllium. This includes smuggling 20 kilograms of beryllium from China in 2004 for use in the regime’s nuclear weapons project,” the council announced in a statement. Beryllium can be combined with polonium 210 to create a catalyst for a nuclear explosion, according to Reuters (Francois Murphy, Reuters, Sept. 1). Elsewhere, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reinstated the head of Iran’s nuclear program yesterday, AP reported. Gholamreza Aghazadeh, who has led Iran’s nuclear program since 1997, will remain in his post, seemingly indicating that the new administration will continue to take a hard line on nuclear policy, according to AP (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press/Washington Post, Aug. 29). The U.S. State Department, meanwhile, announced that Washington would grant a visa to Ahmadinejad to attend the opening next week of the U.N. General Assembly, the Washington Post reported today (Robin Wright, Washington Post, Sept. 7).
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