U.S. officials have tried to convince other nations that Iran is designing a nuclear warhead for the Shahab 3 missile, shown here on parade last year (Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images). U.S. Offered Iran Intelligence Briefings Before IAEA Meeting The United States conducted briefings with key nations on alleged Iranian nuclear weapons work prior to the International Atomic Energy Agency board meeting last month in which Iran was found in noncompliance with international nuclear safeguards, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 7)...Full Story

Kazakhstan Eliminates Nuclear Weapon-Usable Uranium Kazakhstan has nearly completed a project to eliminate tons of nuclear weapon-usable uranium by converting the material into fuel for nuclear power plants, officials announced Saturday (see GSN, April 4)...Full Story

U.K. Intelligence Identifies WMD Program Supporters The British MI5 intelligence agency has identified more than 350 governmental, academic and corporate entities that have supported WMD programs around the world, the Associated Press reported Saturday (see GSN, Sept. 27)...Full Story

	Tuesday, October 11, 2005

U.K. Intelligence Identifies WMD Program Supporters The British MI5 intelligence agency has identified more than 350 governmental, academic and corporate entities that have supported WMD programs around the world, the Associated Press reported Saturday (see GSN, Sept. 27). Organizations operating in Asia, the Middle East and Europe have supplied goods and technology for WMD efforts, according to a report viewed by the Guardian newspaper. The report names 95 Pakistani entities that have supported the country’s nuclear program, along with 114 Iranian bodies, 73 Indian organizations, 11 Israeli entities, an Egyptian chemical company and a Syrian nuclear energy commission. “It is absolute rubbish for Pakistan to be included,” Pakistani Deputy High Commissioner Abdul Basit told the Guardian. The purpose of the report was to keep British companies from doing business in sensitive goods or know-how with entities that support WMD programs, AP reported. “It is not suggested that the companies and organizations on the list have committed an offense under U.K. legislation. However, in addition to conducting nonproliferation related business, they have procured goods and, or technology for weapons of mass destruction programs,” the report states, according to the Guardian (Associated Press, Oct. 8). Meanwhile, a report from the Australian Foreign Affairs and Trade Department says that terrorist organizations pose the primary danger to global WMD nonproliferation efforts, the Australian Associated Press reported yesterday. Terrorists do not have to worry about deterrence or containment, making them even more dangerous than rogue nations such as North Korea, said Foreign Minister Alexander Downer.  “The only real constraints on terrorists are the resources at their disposal to kill, maim and terrify innocent civilian populations,” he said. “Their possession of WMD has truly been said to represent the sum of all our fears.” The report does single out North Korea and Iran as nations of concern. While the document notes Australia’s nonproliferation efforts, Downer acknowledged the difficulty in promoting disarmament and stopping the spread of unconventional weapons. “If we cannot stop horizontal proliferation — that is, an increase in the number of countries acquiring WMD — then we cannot reasonably hope that those countries which already have nuclear weapons will just go and abandon them,” Downer said (Robin Pash, Australian Associated Press, Oct. 10). Back to top       Nuclear Deterrence Theorist Wins Nobel Prize A retired University of Maryland professor won the Nobel Prize in economics yesterday for his work in applying game theory to a number of complex international issues, including nuclear deterrence and arms control (see GSN, Oct. 7). Thomas Schelling “had a profound impact on military theorists and practitioners in the Cold War era, played a major role in establishing ‘strategic studies’ as an academic field of study and may well have contributed significantly to deterrence and disarmament among the superpowers,” said the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in describing his accomplishments. He shared the award with Robert Aumann of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The two described the idea that adversaries could avoid conflict by establishing credible counterstrike capabilities. Such theories of deterrence helped to prevent a nuclear exchange during the Cold War, according to the Washington Post. Game theory “depends on what one anticipates the partner or adversary would do,” Schelling said yesterday at a press conference. It could be used “to discipline a child or deal with employees, or employers or neighbors,” he said (Nell Henderson, Washington Post, Oct. 11). The concept of mutual assured destruction, so prevalent during the U.S.-Soviet face-off, could still apply in the post-Cold War world, he said. Islamic terrorists considering using biological weapons, for example, might think twice if they realize that a very contagious disease could easily spread to the Muslim world. “Anyone who appreciates what a smallpox attack would lead to globally might be largely deterred,” Schelling said (Stephen Manning, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Oct. 10). Still, there is more uncertainty with terrorists, he said, because “it is difficult to figure out what their objectives are.” Schelling and Aumann will share $1.3 million in prize money (Washington Post). Back to top

U.S. Offered Iran Intelligence Briefings Before IAEA Meeting The United States conducted briefings with key nations on alleged Iranian nuclear weapons work prior to the International Atomic Energy Agency board meeting last month in which Iran was found in noncompliance with international nuclear safeguards, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 7). A non-Western diplomat said the U.S. briefing “looks plausible but there is no hard evidence” of an Iranian nuclear warhead project. Iran on Sunday denied the allegations. “It’s a lie. It needs no more explanation,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi. The intelligence, first reported by the Wall Street Journal in March, consists of Farsi-language computer files of diagnostic information on putting a “black box” inside a Shahab 3 ballistic missile, a diplomat told AFP. The focus of the alleged research is on preparing a nuclear warhead that would detonate at an altitude at which it would do the greatest damage. “I’m very confident that it’s authentic,” said nonproliferation expert Gary Samore. It was “pretty clear that it was a nuclear warhead that was being designed,” he said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 9). An IAEA delegation is in Tehran to discuss nuclear issues, the Xinhua news agency reported. A four-member delegation led by the agency’s deputy chief Olli Heinonen arrived Sunday and is expected to begin work Tuesday, according to the Mehr news agency (Xinhua/People’s Daily Online, Oct. 10). Tehran could stop allowing inspections of its nuclear facilities if the agency does not rescind last month’s resolution, a top official said Friday. “Definitely it would be the right of Iran to discontinue confidence-building measures, including (unfettered inspections), if the resolution is not amended at the next meeting of the IAEA,” said Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 7). U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected this week to discuss joint strategy on Iran with European powers during trips to France and the United Kingdom, Reuters reported. The allies are also expected to discuss how much pressure to exert on countries such as Russia that offer Tehran nuclear assistance (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Oct. 10). A senior U.S. official said yesterday that the European Union and the United States must stick together in dealing with Iran, Reuters reported. “I think the Iranians are deeply interested in trying to find divisions between the United States and the EU-3, or even within the EU-3,” said Kurt Volker, a senior official responsible for Europe and Eurasia in the U.S. State Department. “I think it’s very important that we react in a unified way that makes clear what it is we expect the Iranians need to do,” Volker said (Reuters, Oct. 10). Mohammad Saeedi, deputy head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said Saturday that it would be in the interests of all parties to conduct unconditional talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, AP reported. “If the case could be settled through practical, logical, legal and technical solutions then the positive result of the negotiations will be in favor of Iran as well as Europe and the United States,” Saeedi said (Associated Press/USA Today, Oct. 8). Back to top       Kazakhstan Eliminates Nuclear Weapon-Usable Uranium Kazakhstan has nearly completed a project to eliminate tons of nuclear weapon-usable uranium by converting the material into fuel for nuclear power plants, officials announced Saturday (see GSN, April 4). Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan found itself with a variety of nuclear weapons and facilities. More than 1,400 nuclear warheads were returned to Russia in the early 1990s, but tons of highly enriched uranium have remained in the country, creating a potential target for terrorists seeking nuclear weapons. To address the risk, Kazakhstan moved 2,900 kilograms of fresh reactor fuel, containing as much as 26 percent of the weapon-usable isotope U-235, to a facility where technicians have begun to blend the material down into lower concentrations that can be used for civilian power reactors. The highly enriched uranium contained enough material for as many as two dozen nuclear weapons, according to a press release. The down-blending process began early this year and is expected to be completed by January. The Nuclear Threat Initiative shared the $2 million cost with Kazakhstan’s nuclear agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency has supervised the process, according to a press release (Nuclear Threat Initiative release, Oct. 8). Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev praised the progress and looked forward to future efforts. “Now we are capable of converting the highly enriched uranium, or any remains of that uranium, into low-enriched uranium,” he said. “Maybe one day our factory here in Kazakhstan can be a place where highly enriched uranium from other countries can be processed into a low-enriched form” (Ethan Wilensky-Lanford, New York Times, Oct. 9). Nazarbayev also urged the United States and Russia to reduce their nuclear arsenals. “Some countries are allowed to have nuclear weapons and modernize them. Other countries are banned from having them, even to do research,” he said. “It’s wrong, disproportionate and unfair” (Bagila Bukharbayeva, Associated Press/PhillyBurbs.com, Oct. 8). [EDITOR’S NOTE: The Nuclear Threat Initiative is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by the National Journal Group.] Back to top       U.S. Nuclear Programs Behind Schedule, Over Budget Several U.S. Energy Department nuclear programs are significantly behind schedule and over budget, the Albuquerque Journal reported Sunday (see GSN, Sept. 14). The National Ignition Facility, meant to simulate conditions within a nuclear weapon as it detonates, was supposed to cost $1.1 billion and be finished in 2002. Instead, the project at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California is now budgeted at $3.4 billion and is due for completion no earlier than 2008, the Journal reported. Laboratory spokesman Bob Hirschfeld said the problem arose because scientists were working on something completely new. “Nobody had ever done this before,” he said. The laboratory has successfully stuck to a budget and schedule developed in 2000, Hirschfeld said. Critics, however, argue that some funding for the project has been hidden in other DOE budget areas, and that the National Ignition Facility will ultimately cost more than $5 billion. The facility was due to attain nuclear fusion capability in 2010. The Energy Department last year pushed that back to 2014, but reinstated the earlier date after coming under fire for the delay, according to the Journal. Cost estimates for the DOE Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrotest Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico are 10 times higher than originally planned. The facility has yet to fully achieve its planned function of producing three-dimensional X-Ray images of exploding nuclear weapons components. An unfinished machine has been conducting some work, which helps test the reliability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. The full facility is set to be finished by 2008. A 1998 design change contributed to the delay and cost hike, laboratory officials have said. Design of a new nuclear trigger — or pit — at Los Alamos has also been troubled, the Journal reported. The laboratory had hoped to be producing up to 50 annually by 2003. The date to make 10 pits per year is now set at 2008. The project was supposed to cost $310 million, but is now estimated at $1.7 billion (John Fleck, Albuquerque Journal, Oct. 9). Meanwhile, the Y-12 nuclear weapons plant in Tennessee has maintained uranium processing research despite a 2003 explosion that occurred during the work, the Associated Press reported yesterday. The explosion caused no injuries, but contaminated a laboratory and exposed several workers to radiation. Contractor BWXT was subsequently fined $82,500. The facility is now using different equipment for testing of the saltless direct oxide reduction process, the Knoxville News Sentinel reported. “We are still investigating the process after having redesigned, basically from the ground up, the part of the process that had the problem,” said Y-12 spokesman Bill Wilburn. “That portion was torn down and examined and redesigned, incorporating lessons learned from the event” (Associated Press/The Tennsessean, Oct. 10). Back to top       Russia Tests Submarine-Launched Missile Russia over the weekend tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile, and is planning to test a silo-based missile before the end of October, ITAR-Tass reported (see GSN, Sept. 28). A submerged submarine launched the RSM-54 missile, which flew more than 6,000 kilometers and hit a target at the Kura training range in Kamchatka. “This is the sixth sea-based ICBM launch this year,” the Russian Defense Ministry said. A land-based ICBM is to be test-fired this month from the Baikonur space center, ITAR-Tass reported. “The ICBM is in one of the silos at the cosmodrome. Strategic rocket crews are checking the missile and the launching system,” an official said (ITAR-Tass, Oct. 10). Meanwhile, Russia is destroying another rail-based missile launcher, Interfax reported yesterday. “The process of scrapping should be complete by the end of the week,” a source said. This is the eighth of nine rail launch pads set to be destroyed in 2005, Interfax reported. Japan on Friday agreed to help fund disposal of five Russian nuclear submarines, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi are scheduled to sign the agreement when they meet next month in Japan. Japan will contribute millions of dollars to an international fund for Russian disarmament to pay for the submarine project, which could begin this year, Yomiuri reported. Russia is expected to conduct the work (Yomiuri Shimbun/Daily Yomiuri, Oct. 8). Back to top       U.S. Plutonium Consolidation up to Two Years Away The absence of a plan for consolidating 50 metric tons of surplus plutonium is increasing the danger of an accidental release of the radioactive material, experts said Friday in congressional testimony (see GSN, Aug. 23). A plan is expected to be prepared within the next two years, said Charles Anderson, Energy Department assistant secretary of environmental management. Experts said until that occurs, plutonium storage and security costs will rise, as will the danger of an accident, according the Associated Press. The Energy Department is not prepared to completely monitor plutonium to make sure it is safely stored, said Gene Aloise, Government Accountability Office natural resources and environment director. Plutonium that is not needed for nuclear weapons is now spread between the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, the Hanford Site in Washington state and the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site in Colorado. Rocky Flats, Hanford and Savannah have finished plutonium stabilization and packaging, Aloise said. Rocky Flats has sent 1,900 storage containers to Savannah, which could receive nearly 5,700 containers once work is complete, AP reported (Jim Abrams, Associated Press/Washington Post, Oct. 7). Back to top       Allies Expected to Terminate KEDO Next Month Japan, South Korea and the United States are expected next month to finalize a decision to terminate a light-water reactor project in North Korea, the Yonhap News Agency reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 7). South Korea, the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization’s main supporter, has sided with Tokyo and Washington in looking to end the project, the daily Asahi Shimbun quoted Japanese government officials as saying. “South Korea, which has been negative about the termination of the program, has shifted its policy, as seen in its decision to provide electric energy for the North,” Asahi reported. KEDO had already suspended construction until Dec. 1 (Yonhap, Oct. 10). Meanwhile, Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi met Saturday with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to discuss the nuclear standoff, Agence France-Presse reported Saturday (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 8). Back to top

U.S. Chemical Defense Installation Opens The U.S. Army on Friday officially opened a chemical defense research facility at the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland, the Baltimore Sun reported (see GSN, Aug. 24). The $46 million facility is part of the Edgewood Chemical Biological Center. Researchers will study detection, protection and decontamination methods against nerve, blister and blood agents, said Jeffrey Hinte, a director of advanced planning and initiatives for the center. The focus will be on gas masks, hand-held detectors and other hardware, the Sun reported. “Our job is to prevent technological surprises,” Hinte said. “We focus on the nonmedical aspects of the Chemical Biological Defense Program,” he added. The 75,000-square-foot building is designed to allow researchers to work directly with deadly substances, Hinte said (Josh Mitchell, Baltimore Sun, Oct. 8). Back to top

More Than 30 PAC-3 Missiles Needed to Defend Japanese Airspace, Tokyo Estimates Japan is seeking more than 30 Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missiles as part of a joint missile defense system it is developing with the United States, the Associated Press reported Saturday (see GSN, Sept. 26). “We need more than 30 PAC-3s to defend the entire airspace of Japan,” a senior air force official said, according to the Kyodo News agency. Tokyo plans to deploy the first 18 PAC-3s before the end of fiscal 2010, and another 14 would be deployed from fiscal 2011, Kyodo cited Japanese Defense Agency sources as saying (Associated Press/IndiaDaily.com, Oct. 9). Back to top

Radiation Pill Stockpile Plan Faces Further Delay Radiation sickness pills are unlikely to be made available to people living within 20 miles of nuclear power plants before early next year, despite a congressional order that the medication be stockpiled by mid-2003, USA Today reported today (see GSN, Oct. 25, 2004). Representative Edward Markey (D-Mass.) called the delay in providing potassium iodide pills “outrageous.” “Nuclear power plants are at the top of the al-Qaeda target list,” he said. “Potassium iodide is an inexpensive way to protect infants and children.” Some 21.9 million U.S. residents live within a 20-mile radius of a nuclear power plant, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Two years of bureaucratic indecision about which government agency should be in charge of the federal government’s bioterrorism antidote stockpile caused the delay, said Robert Claypool, emergency preparedness planning director for the Health and Human Services Department. Health and Human Services came out on top in the dispute with the Homeland Security Department, according to USA Today (Mimi Hall, USA Today, Oct. 11). Back to top

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