Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

    Issue for Wednesday, October 5, 2005

    Week in Review

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  wmd  
France at Great Risk of WMD Terrorism, Official Says Full Story
Top-Secret U.S. Air Force War Game Tests Future Capabilities Against Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation Full Story
Joseph to Discuss PSI with Tajik Officials Full Story
Recent Stories

  nuclear  
North Korean, U.S. Officials Continue Contacts at United Nations Full Story
Iran Said to Give Military Control of Nuke Program Full Story
France, U.K., U.S. Continue Opposition to Central Asian Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Plan Full Story
Russia Conducts Nuclear Strike Exercise Full Story
ElBaradei in Moscow to Discuss Proliferation Issues Full Story
Recent Stories

  biological  
Inconclusive Test Results Cited in Delayed Tularemia Notification to Federal, Local Health Agencies Full Story
Researchers Discover Smallpox-Resistant Antibody Full Story
Recent Stories

  chemical  
U.S. Raises Concerns Over CW Treaty Budget Full Story
Recent Stories

 

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The Bush administration will have to try to build an incentive structure so that, at every step of the way, North Korea is better off continuing the process instead of bailing out of it.
—Former U.S. nonproliferation official Robert Einhorn, on the next round of six-nation North Korea nuclear disarmament negotiations.


U.S. and North Korean officials have been meeting regularly to prepare for the next round of nuclear talks, according to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, shown at the most recent negotiations last month in Beijing (Getty Images/Ng Han Guan).
U.S. and North Korean officials have been meeting regularly to prepare for the next round of nuclear talks, according to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, shown at the most recent negotiations last month in Beijing (Getty Images/Ng Han Guan).
North Korean, U.S. Officials Continue Contacts at United Nations

North Korean and U.S. officials have been meeting regularly through Pyongyang’s U.N. mission in New York to prepare for the next round of six-nation nuclear talks, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 4).

“It’s fairly routine, these contacts in the context of the six-party talks,” said Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, the lead U.S. envoy to the negotiations.

Hill said he expected the parties would continue to grapple with challenging issues when the multilateral negotiations resume next month.

“If you thought the principles were difficult, the implementations will be even more difficult,” he said.

Hill also said he still had no set plans to visit North Korea
(Reuters/Yahoo!News, Oct. 4)...Full Story

Iran Said to Give Military Control of Nuke Program

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has given his military control of Tehran’s nuclear program, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 4)...Full Story

Inconclusive Test Results Cited in Delayed Tularemia Notification to Federal, Local Health Agencies

Inconclusive tests prevented the U.S. Homeland Security Department from quickly notifying federal and local health agencies that sensors on the National Mall in Washington had detected tularemia last month, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 3)...Full Story

Current Issue Wednesday, October 5, 2005
wmd

France at Great Risk of WMD Terrorism, Official Says


There is a significant danger that militant Islamists could attack in France, possibly using unconventional weapons, the country’s senior terrorism investigator said in an article published yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 26).

“The level (of threat) is incontestably high. Radicalization has never been this strong,” Judge Jean-Louis Bruguiere told the Le Figaro newspaper.

Bruguiere said a chemical attack could occur, “for the simple reason that some of these networks have worked with chemicals or biological toxins such as ricin or botulin.”

Asked about the likelihood of a nuclear attack, he said, “One thing is certain: the risk of a dirty bomb has not been taken out of the equation.”

Home to Europe’s largest Muslim minority, France has become a top recruiting area for Islamist militants, according to Bruguiere.

“It is directly linked to the situation in Iraq, which is changing the shape of the threat,” he said (Reuters, Oct. 4).


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Top-Secret U.S. Air Force War Game Tests Future Capabilities Against Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation


The U.S. Air Force is conducting a three-day war game this week to test its potential capability in 2025 to take on nuclear weapons proliferation and terrorism while fighting two conventional wars, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, April 30, 2004).

The outcome of the top-secret desktop exercise, scheduled to conclude tomorrow, will help the Air Force determine if revisions are needed to its weapons purchase plans, said Col. Gail Wojtowicz, division chief for Air Force future concepts and transformation.

The results could also affect military budgeting and the Quadrennial Defense Review of major weapons programs, according to Reuters

Wojtowicz said the 100 officers, researchers and other U.S. officials taking part in the war game had about 290 “capabilities” — weapons — at their disposal. Several British and Australian officials also took part, she added (Andrea Shalal-Esa, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Oct. 4).


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Joseph to Discuss PSI with Tajik Officials


U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph is traveling to Tajikistan today to discuss Proliferation Security Initiative goals with officials there, according to Asia-Plus (see GSN, Aug. 1).

Joseph is also expected to acquaint himself with the region, said a source at the U.S. Embassy in Tajikistan (Asia-Plus/BBC Monitoring, Oct. 5).


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nuclear

North Korean, U.S. Officials Continue Contacts at United Nations


North Korean and U.S. officials have been meeting regularly through Pyongyang’s U.N. mission in New York to prepare for the next round of six-nation nuclear talks, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 4).

“It’s fairly routine, these contacts in the context of the six-party talks,” said Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, the lead U.S. envoy to the negotiations.

Hill said he expected the parties would continue to grapple with challenging issues when the multilateral negotiations resume next month.

“If you thought the principles were difficult, the implementations will be even more difficult,” he said.

Hill also said he still had no set plans to visit North Korea
(Reuters/Yahoo!News, Oct. 4).

The Bush administration plans to push North Korea to begin disclosing the locations of its nuclear installations when talks resume, the Washington Post reported today.

“The first step is to declare what they have. And we hope the declaration is complete,” Hill said yesterday at the Foreign Press Center.

Some congressional Republicans warned against pushing North Korea too hard.

“If we go into it with the attitude of ‘Okay, we’ve got a deal, now here are the terms of how we move forward’ and push it … I think it may be a bit too much,” said Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), chairwoman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on East Asia. “We need to remember how tenuous this agreement really is.”

“The second round is going to be much more difficult than the first,” said Representative Jim Leach (R-Iowa), chairman of the House International Relations subcommittee on East Asia.

The White House expects to push for an acknowledgement of Pyongyang’s alleged uranium enrichment effort and ultimately for a full accounting of North Korean nuclear arms and programs, the Post reported. A schedule for rewarding North Korea is anticipated, but is not likely to be produced at next month’s meeting.

U.S. negotiators are expected to focus on the rapidity in which South Korea could begin construction of a power plant to provide North Korea with electricity. They hope to avoid too much discussion of a light-water reactor demanded by Pyongyang.

“The Bush administration will have to try to build an incentive structure so that, at every step of the way, North Korea is better off continuing the process instead of bailing out of it,” said Robert Einhorn, a former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation (Baker/Kessler, Washington Post, Oct. 5).

Meanwhile, South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said today that Seoul would consult with the United States and China this month on “active measures” for ending the nuclear standoff, Agence France-Presse reported.

Deputy Foreign Minister Song Min-soon will travel to Beijing and Washington to discuss “the dismantling of nuclear programs and corresponding measures to be taken in mutual coordination,” Ban said.

“The joint statement issued at the fourth round of talks is a ‘word-for-word’ agreement. To discuss its implementation at the fifth round is more important because it is an ‘action-for-action’ consultation,” he said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 5).


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Iran Said to Give Military Control of Nuke Program


Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has given his military control of Tehran’s nuclear program, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 4).

Revolutionary Guard commanders also have been installed in several key political posts, according to a report issued yesterday by an exiled Iranian opposition group.

“The military under the new president is firmly in control of the nuclear program and the nuclear negotiations with the United Nations and the West,” Mohammad Mohaddessin, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, told the Times yesterday.

The personnel changes “make it less and less credible that Iran is pursuing nuclear programs for peaceful uses,” he said.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei instituted the changes in order to “eliminate all bureaucratic and political obstacles to obtaining nuclear weapons,” Mohaddessin said (David Sands, Washington Times, Oct. 5).

Iran is looking to Arab countries for support in its nuclear confrontation with the West, the Associated Press reported yesterday.

“Our ties with Arab countries in the southern Persian Gulf includes this topic,” Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said yesterday in Kuwait during a three-country tour of the region (Diana Elias, Associated Press/TheDaily Star, Oct. 4).

Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department denied it wanted Russia to freeze cooperation with Iran on the Bushehr nuclear energy plant, as Moscow had inferred from yesterday’s statement to the United Nations by acting Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Stephen Rademaker, Agence France-Presse reported.

As the agreement provides for repatriation of spent fuel to Russia, Washington said it does not oppose the deal.

The agreement “addresses the concerns that the United States has and others in the international community have with regard to Iran getting access to those sensitive nuclear fuel cycle activities,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 4).


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France, U.K., U.S. Continue Opposition to Central Asian Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Plan


France, the United Kingdom and the United States maintain their opposition to the existing plan for creating a nuclear weapon-free zone in Central Asia, U.N. ambassadors from the three nations said this week (see GSN, Aug. 1).

In a letter sent Monday to the ambassadors from the five Central Asian states, the Western countries said that the treaty proposed to create the zones does not address all concerns. The Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan — agreed on the draft treaty in February. 

Support from the five official nuclear-weapon states is considered a significant addition to such pacts. China and Russia have already expressed their support, according to AP.

The United States, United Kingdom and France in the letter object to language that could allow prior security agreements to take precedent over the treaty. That could include a 1992 treaty Russia signed with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan that Moscow said could allow for missile deployment in the area.

“A nuclear-weapons free zone treaty must ban from the territory of its parties the deployment of nuclear weapons by anyone, no exceptions whatsoever,” said Richard Grenell, U.S. spokesman at the United Nations.

The United States earlier said it was concerned that the treaty would stop “nuclear powered or nuclear-capable ships and aircraft” from passing through the Central Asian nations. This would limit the movement of certain parts of the U.S. military in the region, which is close to Iran and Afghanistan, according to AP (Nick Wadhams, Associated Press/ABC News, Oct. 4).


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Russia Conducts Nuclear Strike Exercise


Russia yesterday used nuclear-capable Topol missiles in an exercise designed to test the military’s readiness to use nuclear weapons in a strike against an enemy, ITAR-Tass reported (see GSN, Sept. 21).

“Over 2,500 servicemen and over 200 pieces of hardware, including 10 Topol strategic mobile rocket systems, took part in the command and staff exercises in the Vladimir missile division,” according to a military press statement.

“The main aim of the exercises was to check the readiness of missile crews to disperse on terrain and inflict a nuclear strike against a likely enemy, as well as to evaluate the real state of military and mobile readiness of officers, a series of missile divisions and military units,” Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, said in the release (ITAR-Tass, Oct. 5).


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ElBaradei in Moscow to Discuss Proliferation Issues


International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei is in Moscow today for private talks on nuclear proliferation, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 26).

While in Moscow, ElBaradei is scheduled to meet with former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn and Ted Turner, heads of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (Associated Press, Oct. 5).

[The Nuclear Threat Initiative is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by the National Journal Group.]


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biological

Inconclusive Test Results Cited in Delayed Tularemia Notification to Federal, Local Health Agencies


Inconclusive tests prevented the U.S. Homeland Security Department from quickly notifying federal and local health agencies that sensors on the National Mall in Washington had detected tularemia last month, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 3).

The Centers for Disease Control did not learn of the Sept. 25 sensor readings for at least 72 hours. It took five days for Washington, D.C.-area health agencies to receive the news, the Post reported.

Inconclusive tests following the sensor readings made officials wary of issuing a false alarm, said Richard Besser, director of the CDC coordinating office for terrorism preparedness and emergency response.  

Besser said the incident was “highly unusual,” but added that the agency and the Homeland Security Department needed to review their response protocol “to make sure the system doesn't have any flaws in it.”

“It really will cause us to look at the system and say, ‘Should things have been different?’” he said.

Representative Tom Davis (R-Va.), in a letter to Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff and CDC Director Julie Gerberding, called the delay “alarming” and asked for an outline of the procedures triggered when one of the government’s Biowatch program sensors detects a biological agent. 

Davis wants to know when the agencies knew sensors went off and when state and local officials were alerted. “Why weren't these officials notified immediately following the detection?” he wrote.

Besser said that if true positives were seen after initial evaluations, the Homeland Security Department would have been immediately contacted. State and local health agencies then would have been told of the results. 

However, late into last week, CDC officials expected the initial positive results to be discounted. “So we didn't really think there was a need to alert [area] public health officials,” he said (Levine/Horwitz, Washington Post, Oct. 5).


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Researchers Discover Smallpox-Resistant Antibody


Scientists at the La Jolla Institute for Allergy & Immunology in California have identified an antibody in humans that fights smallpox, the research center announced in September (see GSN, Oct. 4).

“This is a very important finding because it has the potential to be an effective treatment for smallpox in humans and therefore could help quickly stop a smallpox outbreak” Mitchell Kronenberg, La Jolla Institute president, said in a press release. The results of the study were published last month in a paper called “Vaccinia H3L envelope protein is a major target of neutralizing antibodies in humans and elicits protection against lethal challenge in mice.”

A team of researchers found a protein in the smallpox virus that elicits a strong response by human antibodies. “Out of the 200 or so proteins contained in the smallpox virus, we found that the H3 protein is a major target for antibodies that kill the virus,” team leader Shane Crotty said in the release.

The U.S. National Institutes of Health is funding additional research to help better understand the discovery. Crotty said he hopes to fully develop the antibodies in the laboratory so that they can be used in humans.  “We'll be working to further characterize and develop the use of this antibody as a treatment for smallpox,” he said.

Kronenberg said that if additional studies support Crotty’s initial findings, “we may one day see high-quality batches of anti-H3 antibody stockpiled around the world right alongside the supplies of smallpox vaccine.” 

“While we do have a smallpox vaccine, there are concerns because people who are immuno-compromised cannot use the current vaccine, including infants and the aged,” he said.

Kronenberg added that in an outbreak the antibody could provide immediate, short-term protection to cover periods while people wait for the vaccine (La Jolla Institute for Allergy & Immunology release, Oct. 5).


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chemical

U.S. Raises Concerns Over CW Treaty Budget


The United States has raised concerns about the draft 2006 budget for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, according to a U.S. State Department press statement (see GSN, Sept. 28).

U.S. Ambassador Eric Javits told the organization’s executive committee last week in The Hague that while the budget “contains important new initiatives that address the needs of the organization,” it initially “rested upon a dangerously shaky foundation.”

For instance, Javits said that the United States believes it is “unrealistic” to base anticipated income on the expected workload. The organization receives funding from member states in which inspections are conducted. Only between 60 and 70 percent of inspections were completed annually in previous years, meaning the organization received only that percentage of revenue, Javits said.

“If our assumptions about inspection activity at destruction facilities are overly optimistic, then some of that work may never happen; the expedited income may never materialize; and we may be forced, as we were in 2001, to savagely cut expenditure for international cooperation, industry inspections, and other vital programs in order to balance the budgets,” he said.

Javits also said the United States wants to increase industry and chemical production facility inspections. Member states must also work to ensure that the organization has personnel capable of performing thorough inspections, he said. 

The United States was also critical of member states that have not fulfilled their obligations. Javits said that 17 states that joined more than two years ago have yet to designate a national authority and that 21 have not drafted legislation and submitted it to their legislative bodies for approval as required.

Javits also pushed for Russia to set a date to destroy 45 percent of its chemical weapons, and called for all states with these weapons to provide assurances that their stockpiles would be destroyed quickly.

“As the world's largest possessor of chemical weapons, it is important for Russia to provide such an assurance by not allowing the question of when it plans to have 45 percent of its stockpile destroyed to linger,” he said (State Department release/Scoop.co.nz, Oct. 5).

 


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