By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — Talks over Iran’s nuclear programs should be seen as a test of the relevance of the International Atomic Energy Agency as a forum for handling such problems, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich said yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 15). The failure of a U.S. bid to send the Iran case to the U.N. Security Council, which could impose economic sanctions over Tehran’s alleged pursuit of a nuclear weapon, would indicate the nuclear agency is unable to take even minimal steps to address pressing crises, Gingrich told a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs subcommittee. The nuclear agency’s Board of Governors meets next week at its Vienna headquarters in the latest in a two-year series of meetings focusing on the Iran impasse. At its last meeting in September, the board found that Iran was not complying with its nonproliferation commitments, a step needed to begin a sequence of events the Bush administration believes is required to end with a Security Council referral. “The IAEA should see itself as being under test next week, not the United States,” said Gingrich, who is now a chairman of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Task Force on the United Nations. The Nobel Peace Prize awarded last month to the U.N. nuclear watchdog and to its director general, Mohamed ElBaradei, has been widely seen as strengthening the agency’s hand in resisting U.S. pressure and seeking a diplomatic solution to the Iran standoff. Gingrich said sanctions are unlikely to prevent Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, since such measures tend to strengthen tyrannical governments and encourage corruption. Short of a “naval blockade,” he said, “countries don’t collapse” because of economic penalties. “We’ve had sanctions against [Cuban President] Fidel Castro since 1960. We had sanctions against [toppled Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein for years,” the Georgia Republican told the Federal Financial Management, Government Information and International Security Subcommittee. The Iran case presents the world with two options, Gingrich said: potentially “lose Tel Aviv and Jerusalem” by allowing a “genocidal, homicidal regime” in Tehran to obtain a nuclear weapon — a reference to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s remark last month that Israel should be “wiped off the map” — or “replace the regime.” A “simple, small first step” toward the second option, he said, would be to suspend Iranian membership in the United Nations. Expand U.S. Military to Stare Down Iran, Woolsey SaysFellow conservatives on the subcommittee and among the witnesses at the hearing echoed Gingrich’s calls for a hard line with Iran. Subcommittee Chairman Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) expressed alarm at Ahmadinejad’s comments on Israel, which Tehran has since sought to temper. “There should be no doubt that Iran isn’t just blustering here. Iran has a history of carrying out its threats,” Coburn said. The United States should pursue “regime change” in Iran, he said, because “democracies tend not to threaten other democracies.” Former Director of Central Intelligence James Woolsey told the subcommittee a “major expansion of our own armed forces” is needed in response to the Iranian threat. Woolsey, now a vice president with consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, warned against a policy of “appeasement” akin to some European countries’ reactions to the rise of Nazism in Germany. He said Iran would have a nuclear weapon in “extremely short order” if it obtained the necessary material. “I think the Iranian intent is crystal clear to any objective observer,” Woolsey said. Woolsey expressed hope that the United States would not have to use force against Iran but added, “I’m afraid … that with respect to this regime, regime change is the only option.” U.S. President George W. Bush’s description of groups such as al-Qaeda as “Islamofascists” does not go far enough to describe the Iranian president, Woolsey said. “That is not severe enough for Ahmadinejad, because the Italian Fascists, while terrible, were not genocidal, were not explicitly genocidal, while Ahmadinejad is genocidal,” Woolsey said. International Support is Crucial, Say ExpertsOthers at the hearing advocated stronger diplomatic and economic measures to try to change Iran’s plans. Former U.S. Senator Alfonse D’Amato (R-N.Y.) called for a policy of “constrictive engagement” with Iran in which countries would work together to tighten or loosen economic penalties, according to Tehran’s nuclear conduct. “It’s very easy to say, ‘We’ll just bring about regime change,’” said D’Amato, but “what policies will we undertake to bring about regime change? … I don’t think the American people are willing at this point to say, ‘Let’s go to war. Let’s bomb them.’” Former White House nonproliferation adviser Gary Samore said Iran has been making only “tactical concessions” in its dealings with the nuclear agency and called Russia and China, which have resisted sending Iran to the Security Council, the keys to more tangible progress. “The challenge is to mobilize strong international support for [uranium] enrichment as a red line, having already failed to enforce [uranium] conversion [activities] as the trigger for referral,” said Samore, vice president for global security and sustainability at the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Russia and China “basically … do not want to be dragged into a confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program, which could jeopardize their relations with Iran as well as their overall relations with the U.S. and European powers,” Samore said. “We need to convince Moscow and Beijing that the best way to avoid a crisis is to convince Iran not to aggravate the situation by resuming enrichment. That requires a strong warning by Russia and China to Iran not to expect protection if Iran decides to breach the enrichment red line.” Council on Foreign Relations Middle East Studies Senior Fellow Ray Takeyh called for engagement with Iran, warning that U.S. belligerence would strengthen the hand of the country’s hard-liners generally and with respect to the need for a nuclear weapon. He called for using “soft power,” including “cultural exchanges, academic scholarships and a more relaxed visa policy,” as well as relaxing economic sanctions. “By integrating Iran into the global economy, the U.S. can generate internal pressures for transparency and decentralization that will press Iran toward a more responsible international conduct,” Takeyh said. Although Iran is now governed by its right wing, reforms over the last decade have made it “impossible for Iran to become a rigid, authoritarian state,” Takeyh said. “Iran’s democratic transition must come on its own terms and at its own pace,” Takeyh said. “Iran will change. However, this will not be a change imposed or accelerated from abroad.” “It is neither inevitable nor absolute that Iran will become the next member of the nuclear club,” he added, “as its internal debates are real and its course of actions is still unsettled.”
By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Senate yesterday unanimously passed legislation barring allocation of $4 million requested by the Energy Department to continue study of an earth-penetrating nuclear weapon (see GSN, Nov. 9). The language sponsored by Senator Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) was approved as an amendment to the Senate’s $492 billion fiscal 2006 defense authorization bill. “None of the funds authorized to be appropriated to the Department of Energy under this act may be made available for the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator,” it says. Both the Senate and the House have passed appropriations bills for the Energy and Defense departments that deny funding for the study this fiscal year 2006. However, observers say the Defense Department this fiscal year could request congressional permission to use other defense funds for the study. The House Armed Services Committee earlier this year approved language in the House version of the defense authorization bill authorizing Defense Department spending on nuclear and conventional penetrator concepts. Democratic senators have vowed to block in the pending conference on the authorization bill any Defense Department funding of the study of nuclear penetrators in fiscal 2006.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei could visit Iran this weekend in hopes of brokering a deal over Tehran’s controversial nuclear program, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 15). Moscow’s envoy to the agency yesterday briefed ElBaradei on the proposal for a Russian-Iranian joint venture that would allow Tehran to continue uranium enrichment activities if they take place on Russian soil, Reuters reported. A source close to the agency said ElBaradei’s trip would go forward if the plan were to gain approval from board members such as France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, which have pushed for Security Council referral of Iran’s dossier; nations such as China and Russia that have opposed referral; and developing nations with an interest in increased access to nuclear power. “But there’s still quite a lot of water left to flow under the bridge before a done deal (among key board members),” said the source. “Without that, ElBaradei’s not likely to go and risk such a sensitive visit backfiring in his face.” The official from an EU power said ElBaradei seemed “optimistic that the Russian deal could go through” and was favored making the trip. ElBaradei’s latest report on Tehran’s activities is expected to be released to members of the agency’s Board of Governors later this week, ahead of the board meeting scheduled to begin Nov. 24. Diplomats said the report would be more positive than its predecessor, which prompted the board to pass a resolution critical of Tehran in September. “We expect the (new) report to be very short ... there will be positive elements in it. Iran permitted the IAEA to visit Parchin (military test site) and early results show no signs of nuclear materials,” said one EU diplomat (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, Nov. 15). Two agency inspectors are in Isfahan this week , the Iranian Fars News Agency reported yesterday. The experts are scheduled to visit nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Natanz before departing on Nov. 23, Fars reported (Fars News Agency/BBC Monitoring, Nov. 15). Russia’s nuclear talks with Iran will continue, Russian Security Council chief Igor Ivanov said in an interview published today by in RIA Novosti. Ivanov also said Iran’s negotiations with the EU powers ought to resume, the Associated Press reported (Associated Press, Nov. 16). Meanwhile, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried said yesterday “the world should contemplate a nuclear weapons-armed Iran with the greatest of concern.” He said the International Atomic Energy Agency must “act with determination and resolve for all of us,” AP reported (Susanna Loof, Associated Press, Nov. 15).
North Korea has been receiving economic and diplomatic incentives from South Korea, even though Pyongyang has made no movement on its September pledge to dismantle its nuclear weapons program, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Nov. 15). South Korea’s National Assembly last week approved a $2.6 billion package of economic and humanitarian aid to North Korea, more than doubling its 2005 allocation. The amount is so large that Seoul might have to issue bonds to finance the aid, according to the Post. An official South Korean liaison office opened in Pyongyang this month for the first time since the Korean War, and a railroad line between the countries is expected to be completed this year. Such efforts were meant to persuade North Korea to dismantle its nuclear programs, the Post reported, but instead Pyongyang has pledged to restart work on building a 50-megawatt nuclear reactor. Since the signing of the September agreement, “the mood for reconciliation has improved,” said Moon Dae-keun, economic cooperation director for South Korea’s Unification Ministry. “We still need to resolve the nuclear issue, but the agreement has helped us to move ahead with South-North cooperation.” Opposition leaders in Seoul, however, have said granting concessions to the North now would be a strategic error. “We can’t give them everything they want now. Instead, we need to make them understand the consequences if they don’t comply” with the September agreement, said Hwang Jin-ha, a National Assembly member from the opposition Grand National Party. “We should only make positive gestures with food aid, economic assistance and investment when we see real steps being taken to resolve the nuclear issue” (Anthony Faiola, Washington Post, Nov. 16). Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said today that it remained unclear whether Pyongyang was serious about disarmament, Agence France-Presse reported. “I think the jury is out on whether the North Koreans are prepared to do what they need to do, which is to get serious about dismantlement and verification obligations that they undertook,” Rice said. “Thus far, I think the round that just ended did not have the kind of engagement on that issue from the North Koreans that we might have expected,” she said of last week’s six-party talks (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 16). Elsewhere, Chinese President Hu Jintao and South Korean Prime Minister Roh Moo-hyun agreed yesterday to strengthen bilateral connections and increase their efforts at resolving the standoff over North Korea, the Associated Press reported. “If the two countries of China and South Korea want to realize their separate development goals, they require a peaceful external environment,” Hu said. Hu said he and Roh had agreed to create a hot line between their respective capitals (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press, Nov. 16).
Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen said yesterday that India’s decision on whether to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council could shape Congressional support for a nuclear technology sharing agreement between India and the United States, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Nov. 8). “It is important for India to say it is still committed to making sure Iran doesn’t become a nuclear weapons country,” Cohen said. In September, India supported a vote of the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors finding Iran in noncompliance with its nonproliferation obligations. The coalition government in New Delhi is facing pressure from communist allies to oppose Security Council referral when the board meets again next week, AP reported. “If India votes against Iran we will raise the matter in Parliament,” said Prakash Karat of the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Cohen said Congress “would be very interested in seeing that India remains true” to its position on Iran. U.S. lawmakers must approve the White House plan for it to become reality. India, as part of the July agreement, has vowed to separate its military and civilian nuclear facilities. While that would be an extended process, Cohen said, “there are a number of steps that can be taken to show that India is committed to doing precisely that” (Rajesh Mahapatra, Associated Press, Nov. 15).
Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday appointed Sergei Kiriyenko as head of its Federal Atomic Energy Agency, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 15). Kiriyenko, a former Russian prime minister, will lead the agency that manages Russian civilian and military nuclear sites. That includes oversight of construction of the Russian-built Bushehr reactor in Iran, according to AFP. Kiriyenko was serving as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy to the Volga region. He replaces Alexander Rumyantsev, who had led the nuclear agency since 2001 (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 15).
Global Security Newswire incorrectly reported yesterday that the House of Representatives had not yet voted on the fiscal 2006 Energy and Water Appropriations bill. The House voted Nov. 9 to approve the bill by a vote of 399-17, the Senate passed it 84-4 Monday, and the bill now awaits the president’s signature.
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