Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, pictured late last month, this weekend asked France, Germany and the United Kingdom to resume negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program (AFP/Getty Images). Iran Requests Resumption of Nuclear Talks With EU Iran made a formal request to France, Germany and the United Kingdom yesterday to resume negotiations over its controversial nuclear program, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Nov. 3). Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani asked for “constructive and logical negotiations” in letters to the three countries’ foreign ministers, according to the official IRNA news service (Karl Vick, Washington Post, Nov. 7)...Full Story

ElBaradei Eyes Fuel-Supply Assurance by Next Year By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — An agreement for a mechanism to assure countries of a nuclear-fuel supply while taking proliferation-sensitive elements of the fuel cycle out of their hands could be in place by next year, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said here today (see GSN, Nov. 4)...Full Story

Expert Sees Similar Challenges in Responses to Pandemic Influenza and Bioterror Attack By David Francis Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Parallels between U.S. bioterrorism response plans and the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza released last week highlight challenges posed by disease outbreaks that occur naturally or through intentional acts, a bioterrorism expert said (see GSN, Nov. 2)...Full Story

	Monday, November 7, 2005

Documents Show Doubts About Iraq Intelligence Declassified documents released this weekend show that the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency had doubts more than a year before the invasion of Iraq about claims that terrorists were being trained to use biological and chemical weapons in Iraq, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Nov. 4). The documents, released by Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.) said that the agency questioned why captured Libyan al-Qaeda operative Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi could not name any Iraqis involved in the program, what type of materials were used and where the training occurred. “[I]t is more likely this individual is intentionally misleading the debriefers,” the agency said. Al-Libi retracted his statements in January 2004, and the CIA the following month withdrew intelligence reports based on his claims. Levin said that while the Bush administration before the war was linking Iraq and al-Qaeda, the agency and other intelligence services were questioning the connection, the Post reported. It is not known whether anyone at the White House saw the DIA report but Levin said it was his “presumption” that someone at the National Security Council reviewed the document. The White House declined to comment. Levin noted an Oct. 27, 2002, speech in which President George W. Bush addressed the “grave threat” posed by Iraq days before Congress voted to give the president power to go to war. “We've learned that Iraq has trained al-Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and deadly gases,” Bush said in the speech. Levin said this claim was based largely on information provided by al-Libi. Bush also said in the speech that, “We know that Iraq and al-Qaeda have had high-level contacts that go back a decade.” Levin said that the 2002 DIA report found that “Saddam's regime is intensely secular and wary of Islamic revolutionary movements. Moreover, Baghdad is unlikely to provide assistance to a group it cannot control.” “Just imagine the public impact of that DIA conclusion if it had been disclosed at the time. It surely could have made a difference in the congressional vote authorizing the war,” Levin said in a prepared statement. Levin said he did not know if the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has the DIA document. It did not have the document when it compiled its first report on prewar Iraq’s WMD programs, according to the Post. The committee is now working to looking at the use of intelligence leading up to the March 2003 invasion. That includes comparing prewar statements by members of the Bush administration and Congress and known intelligence at the time on Iraq (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Nov. 6). On Friday, Senate Democrats called on intelligence committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) to do a “thorough” and “credible” investigation into the White House’s use of intelligence, Knight Ridder reported. Democrats last week forced Republicans to continue the investigation into U.S. intelligence on prewar Iraq. “A rush job that glosses over key questions is in no one's interest,” said Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.). A number of questions remain on the use of intelligence in the run up to the war, including: why all caveats and restrictions were removed from the National Intelligence Estimate prepared prior to the war; whether intelligence analysts skeptical of information provided by Iraqi exiles were bypassed by the Defense and State departments and the White House; whether Vice President Dick Cheney knew the FBI and CIA doubted intelligence that indicated Sept. 11 hijacker Mohammed Atta met with an Iraqi official in Prague; and whether Iraqi exiles delivered information directly to the Pentagon and Cheney’s office. Democrats have also asked Roberts to look into a recent report that found Cheney’s former chief of staff, I. Lewis Libby, withheld documents from the committee during its initial investigation (David Goldstein, Knight Ridder, Nov. 5). Roberts yesterday sad that the committee’s initial work found no sign that the administration used “political manipulation or pressure” to change intelligence, the New York Times reported. The committee is expected to review a draft report on the issue this week. Roberts did not offer details of the report. As part of the committee’s initial investigation last year on prewar intelligence, “we interviewed over 250 analysts and we specifically asked them: ‘Was there any political manipulation or pressure?’ Answer: ‘No,’” Roberts said. Studies by the other U.S. and British commissions came to the “same conclusion,” Roberts said (Eric Lichtblau, New York Times, Nov. 6). Meanwhile, four U.S. officials said that the Italian military intelligence service SISMI gave the CIA three reports from October 2001 to March 2002 detailing an alleged agreement for Iraq to buy uranium from Niger, Knight Ridder reported Saturday. Two of these officials said that the Italian agency gave similar reports based on forged document to the United Kingdom, France and Germany. One U.S. official said that a portion of one of the reports given to the United States was taken directly from badly forged documents.  “SISMI was involved in this; there is no doubt,” said a U.S. intelligence official. Italy denies any part in passing on the forged documents (Jonathan Landay, Knight Ridder II/Kansas City Star, Nov. 5). The FBI said last week that the documents were believed to be part of a moneymaking scheme, the Associated Press reported. An investigation “confirmed the documents to be fraudulent and concluded they were more likely part of a criminal scheme for financial gain,” rather than an effort to influence U.S. policy, said FBI spokesman John Miller. Miller did not say how the FBI came to this conclusion (Associated Press/Washington Post, Nov. 5). Back to top       Canada to Study Behavioral Responses to WMD Attack The Canadian Defense Department is sponsoring a study to determine how the general population would respond to a biological or radiological strike, the Canadian Press reported today (see GSN, Nov. 3). “We don’t really have tools in place to measure those psychological effects — and part of what we’re interested in doing with this contract is actually having experts help us develop methods for doing that properly,” said lead project scientist David Mandel. Researchers plan to examine the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, the response to Hurricane Katrina and other incidents in order to determine how people react to both the threat and to the first responders on the scene. “When people come in as first responders and members of the public are suspicious of their intentions, that’s a problem that goes beyond the initial crisis itself,” Mandel said (Stephen Thorne, Canadian Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 7). Back to top

Iran Requests Resumption of Nuclear Talks With EU Iran made a formal request to France, Germany and the United Kingdom yesterday to resume negotiations over its controversial nuclear program, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Nov. 3). Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani asked for “constructive and logical negotiations” in letters to the three countries’ foreign ministers, according to the official IRNA news service (Karl Vick, Washington Post, Nov. 7). The European Union announced today that it is considering the offer, Agence France-Presse reported. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said the EU would send its reply to Tehran in short order. “The Iranians are under the obligation to respond positively to the resolution of the Board of Governors at the International Atomic Energy Agency in late September and we look to them to do that,” he said (see GSN, Sept. 26). Straw said “informal discussions” with Tehran are continuing (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 7). A EU diplomat in Vienna said Iran’s refusal to suspend uranium fuel work makes its request to restart talks unacceptable, AFP reported yesterday. “No, definitely not,” the diplomat from one of the three EU powers said regarding the possibility of new talks (Agence France-Presse I/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 6). Iran, meanwhile, is reportedly seeking investors for its uranium enrichment operations, according to AFP. Cabinet officials were cited as granting the country’s atomic energy agency authority to seek investors, even though uranium enrichment remains frozen. “The government is authorizing the Iranian atomic energy agency to seek Iranian or foreign investors — from the public or private sectors — for the Natanz enrichment project,” AFP quoted press reports as saying (Agence France-Presse II/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 6). Tehran announced yesterday that it would convert another batch of uranium at its Isfahan facility, according to AFP. “We have told the (International Atomic Energy) Agency that we are going to inject new initial materials (uranium ore) into the production chain,” said Javad Vaidi, an official from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (Agence France-Presse III/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 6). Agency experts are unlikely to complete analysis of samples taken by inspectors at Iran’s Parchin military complex in time for a Nov. 24 Board of Governors meeting, diplomats said. “I think it’s way too close,” said a European diplomat close to the agency. The United States suspects Iran is conducting nuclear weapons work at the site. Lack of analysis is likely to decrease the chances that the board would decide on whether to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council over the nuclear program, the diplomat said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Nov. 4). Elsewhere, Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh announced yesterday that his country might reverse its vote on the September IAEA resolution censuring Iran at the next board meeting, the Associated Press reported. If a harsher resolution is tabled, “my recommendation to the government will be to revise our vote,” Singh said. India “will take decisions considering what we think is in our vital national interest,” he said (Vijay Joshi, Associated Press, Nov. 6). Back to top       ElBaradei Eyes Fuel-Supply Assurance by Next Year By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — An agreement for a mechanism to assure countries of a nuclear-fuel supply while taking proliferation-sensitive elements of the fuel cycle out of their hands could be in place by next year, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said here today (see GSN, Nov. 4). The assurance-of-supply arrangement would be the crucial first step in a new system limiting the spread of uranium-enrichment and plutonium-separation technology, said the director general, who along with his agency won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. “You are taking away a justification for countries to say, ‘I would like to make my own fuel,’” ElBaradei said at the Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference. Instead of delivering his prepared remarks from the podium at this morning’s conference opening, ElBaradei sat on stage and was interviewed by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nonproliferation Director Joseph Cirincione. ElBaradei called for a process containing four components: the assurance of supply, a moratorium on new enrichment and reprocessing facilities and the creation of both a nuclear fuel multilateral reprocessing and disposal system and a multilateral enrichment and fuel-production arrangement. The first step, he said, appears to be gaining traction: The United States this year said it would make available 17.4 metric tons of highly enriched uranium for downblending into fuel to be used in an international “fuel bank,” and Russia has indicated it plans to follow suit. “I need to look at the big picture,” ElBaradei said. “I need to see how verification is really helping to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The real 800-pound gorilla that I see is this whole question [of the fuel cycle]. We need to revisit this whole framework of using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.” Asked by U.S. State Department nuclear-verification specialist Sally Horn about new nonproliferation commitments from states and new powers for the agency under a fuel-bank setup, ElBaradei said the deal would be a voluntary one based on benefits for all parties, not on any legal authority. New nonproliferation commitments by nonweapon states are not the point of the plan, ElBaradei said, because “the proliferation dimension of it [nuclear power] would be taken away” while the deal was in force. “They would not have access to … highly enriched uranium or plutonium that could go into nuclear weapons,” he said. At the same time, he conceded, countries could choose to go back on their commitment not to expand fuel-cycle capabilities if they were not receiving a fuel supply. “I am not asking any country to give up any rights. … You keep your rights. You simply exercise self-restraint,” ElBaradei said. “This is part of a package.” ElBaradei touched on a myriad of topics in his exchange with Cirincione and during subsequent questioning from the audience. The director general proclaimed himself “delighted” by the recent U.S. congressional move to withhold funding for a nuclear “bunker-buster” study (see GSN, Nov. 4). ElBaradei called for “creative” ways to get India, Pakistan and Israel involved in the international nonproliferation regime, while calling it unlikely the three nuclear-armed states would ever formally join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Addressing Cirincione’s remark that the agency “got it right” on Iraq by affirming before the U.S. invasion that there was no evidence Baghdad was resuming nuclear-weapon programs, ElBaradei portrayed the assessment as a straightforward and apolitical one. “I simply was reading the data that we were getting,” he said. “I simply was heeding the advice that we were getting from the experts on the ground.” Asked about decade-old international discussions on whether to begin negotiations on a treaty cutting off new production of fissile material, ElBaradei became animated. “It’s absolutely ridiculous that we’re spending 10 years doing [this] kabuki dance,” he said. “For God’s sake, let’s start a negotiation.” Back to top       China Expects No Major Breakthrough in North Korea Nuclear Negotiations This Week Multilateral talks on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions will resume for three days beginning Wednesday but are not expected to reach a breakthrough this week, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei said today (see GSN, Nov. 4). “It is premature to expect some kind of major achievement. We are at the stage where a new process is starting,” Wu told Kyodo News. “We want to set up another opportunity for further discussions. (The talks) will be resumed within the year,” he said. Wu said a panel of experts should be established to implement the September joint statement under which Pyongyang agreed in principle to dismantle its nuclear programs in exchange for aid, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 7). There is pressure on the United States to offer some immediate benefits to North Korea in exchange for its pledge to dismantle its nuclear program, AFP reported. “I think the next round is unlikely to yield significant progress, because the two sides are very far apart on what each of them should do at the beginning,” said Selig Harrison, director of the Center for International Policy’s Asia program. Pyongyang wants Washington to “take some steps” toward normalized relations between the two countries, Harrison said. Divisions within the Bush administration on North Korea policy also continue to complicate negotiations, diplomatic sources said. For example, the top U.S. envoy to the talks, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, could not obtain approval from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to travel to Pyongyang during the last recess in talks, AFP reported. “The combination of a relatively inflexible and deeply divided foreign policy establishment in Washington and a brutal and difficult ... dictatorship in Pyongyang makes it very hard to imagine that we can proceed ahead without many bumps on the road,” said Kurt Campbell, a former U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 6). Tokyo plans to revisit the issue of Cold War-era abductions of Japanese citizens by Pyongyang at this week’s meeting, Kyodo News reported. “Our country will have to raise the nuclear, missile and abduction issues as problems that should be resolved,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said today (Kyodo News/Yahoo!News, Nov. 7). Back to top       Dutch Businessman Unrepentant About Alleged Nuclear Technology Transfers to Pakistan A Dutch businessman accused of making illegal nuclear technology transfers to Pakistan said that maintaining the balance of power in Asia required that Islamabad possess nuclear weaponry, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 19). Henk Slebos allegedly sent graphite, O-rings and other dual-use equipment to former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan between 1999 and 2002. Prosecutors are seeking an 18-month prison sentence. A verdict in the trial is expected in two weeks. Slebos, who met Khan while studying at the Delft University of Technology, told the Dutch television program Zembla he was “still best friends” with the scientist, according to an interview posted yesterday on the program’s Web site. “I don’t recognize the hegemony of the Western world,” Slebos said. “Pakistan needed an atom bomb for stability. If you then say the country is too stupid (to have the bomb), then you really make me angry.” Slebos said Dutch intelligence agents visited Khan several times but failed to act on whatever information they acquired regarding the scientist’s black market nuclear network. Slebos was convicted of sending sensitive equipment to Khan’s laboratories in 1985 and sentenced to a year in prison. The term was reduced on appeal and Slebos never spent time in prison, according to AP (Associated Press/Brandon Sun, Nov. 6). Back to top

Expert Sees Similar Challenges in Responses to Pandemic Influenza and Bioterror Attack By David Francis Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Parallels between U.S. bioterrorism response plans and the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza released last week highlight challenges posed by disease outbreaks that occur naturally or through intentional acts, a bioterrorism expert said (see GSN, Nov. 2). “I think there are overlaps between planning and response to pandemic influenza and an intentional bioterrorism attack,” said Richard Waldhorn, a Georgetown University professor and a distinguished scholar at the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Biosecurity.  The National Response Plan outlines how the United States should respond to a biological attack, setting up coordination between federal agencies and providing guidance to state and local law enforcement and public health agencies. The plan outlines: how a biological incident would be detected; how its source would be determined; how public health and law enforcement response would be shaped; how to control the outbreak from becoming epidemic; and how to supplement public health and medical services.  The pandemic influenza strategy has been undergoing revisions since the 1970s. Recent fears over an avian flu outbreak prompted the government to finish the strategy. Like the National Response Plan, the flu strategy: outlines how to detect a pandemic outbreak and track people who could be or are infected; discusses how countermeasures should be used and how to manage shortages of drugs; and suggests how to manage hospitals and public health services during an outbreak.   Quarantines for sick patients are also an option. In most cases, the plan does not offer specifics on what to do, but suggests courses of action to local and state authorities. Waldhorn said the first difficulty in a bioterrorism attack or an outbreak of pandemic flu is isolating the origin of the disease. Knowing where the disease began makes it easier to track people who could become sick. “We don’t know exactly … who it’s going to attack, where it’s going to occur,” he said.  That would be the case whether trying to locate the origin point of a flu outbreak or an anthrax attack, Waldhorn said. “Achieving that sort of situational awareness is a challenge.” Another challenge is the ability of the U.S. government and the pharmaceutical industry to produce vaccines. The Bush administration announced that it would dedicate $1.7 billion toward the development of an avian flu vaccine. Congress has been working through the Project Bioshield legislation to boost the pharmaceutical industry’s development of bioterrorism countermeasures, with limited results so far due to companies’ concerns over liability and an uncertain market for the products. “The ability to ramp up vaccine production,” Waldhorn said, “would be a conveyable challenge with a large-scale biological attack” as well as with pandemic flu. “Some of the same issues on how to get a national security approach towards bioterrorism countermeasures” come up when discussing flu vaccine development, including promoting development by drug companies and boosting overall production. Also problematic in both scenarios is how the public health infrastructure would handle a surge of highly contagious patients following an attack or outbreak. Many hospital workers lack the training to deal with these types of situations, including doctors who recent studies have found have difficulty recognizing the symptoms of biological agent infection (see GSN, Nov. 3). Waldhorn said the best way to fill gaps in the response plans is to create strategies that could fix shortcomings in both, such as creating a production infrastructure that could be used to make vaccines to counter the flu and biological threats. “Those of us who have been interested in biothreats believe if we make investments in bioterror, it should be dual use,” he said. Back to top       Database Could Aid Bioterrorism Response The University of Nebraska Medical Center has created a database that could help coordinate the medical response to a biological attack, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 21). The database, which tracks 35,000 health care professionals in Nebraska, has attracted the attention of other states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “They clearly, I think, are in the forefront,” said Edward Salsberg, director of the Center for Workforce Studies at the Association of American Medical Colleges. “They are definitely a model for the other states.” The database contains information on where medical personnel live and work, their education, languages spoken and their specialty. “They have near current, not just mailing addresses, but e-mail addresses and fax numbers … and other means of quickly reaching their health care professionals,” said Ed Thompson, CDC head of public health practice. If anthrax were detected in a Nebraska city, the database could identify doctors capable of handling the pathogen, said database creator Kolene Kohll. The state Health and Human Services Department would then quickly contact those physicians through an emergency broadcast system. Kohll said 30 states have shown interest in having databases created. “There's a big, nationwide push toward getting accurate work force information. There's very much a need,” she said (Chuck Brown, Associated Press/ABC News, Nov. 6). Back to top

Contract Dispute Threatens Work at Newport Employees of the private operator of the U.S. Army’s Newport Chemical Depot are threatening to walk off the job because of a contract dispute over incentive pay, the Terre Haute, Ind., Tribune-Star reported Friday (see GSN, Nov. 1). The workers are responsible for operating and maintaining the Indiana plant in which VX nerve agent is destroyed, said Scott Rowden, environmental director for contractor Parsons Technologies. A walkout by 50 or more workers could halt weapons disposal, said Rick Rife, Parson’s project manager at the site. “If we don't have an adequate number of people, we can't operate,” he said. “If we don't have enough people to run safely, we won't run.” However, Col. Jesse Barber, project manager for the Army's Alternative Technologies and Approaches Project, said work at the site would continue without the Parsons workers. “If we lost 50 to 60 people we will consolidate the work force and go to a smaller crew,” he said. “We will go to a one-shift operation, which will allow us to continue destroying VX. It will not shut us down.  I have a promise from my boss, Kevin Flamm, program manager for the Elimination of Chemical Weapons, that allows me to borrow workers from other sites to keep Newport going if we can't do it with the existing work force” (Patricia Pastore, Tribune-Star, Nov. 4). Back to top       Contractor at Umatilla Chemical Depot Fined for Improper Labeling of Waste from Weapons Processing The state of Oregon has levied a $25,800 fine against the contractor that operates the Umatilla Chemical Depot, the Portland Oregonian reported Friday (see GSN, Nov. 3). Most of the fines against the Washington Demilitarization Co. involve improper labeling for containers filled with waste created during weapons processing, according to the Oregonian. The contractor must appeal or pay the fine within 20 days (Andy Dworkin, Oregonian, Nov. 4). Back to top       Mustard Agent Detected at Aberdeen A trace of mustard gas was detected Friday at the Aberdeen Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Maryland (see GSN, Oct. 26). Workers were visually inspecting a container that had already been cleaned when the alarm sounded. The building was evacuated, but the community and the environment were not threatened, according to a U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release. The four workers who were inspecting the container received medical attention and were cleared to return to work. The container that tripped the alarm previously stored mustard gas. It was in the last stage of an 11-step process in which it was bisected, cleansed with hot water, steam cleaned and dried and monitored for remaining chemicals. The Army said a tube in the container still held agent residue. “Despite the fact that we are dealing with levels of agent vapor so miniscule that they are only trace amounts, we are taking measures to prevent a reoccurrence of this scenario because safely is our first priority,” project manager Joseph Lovrich said in the release. He said the Army plans to conduct more rigorous cleaning and monitoring (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Nov. 4). Back to top

German Firms Warned of Illegal Missile Technology Transfers to Iran, Syria via Third Parties Berlin has issued a warning to several German firms that Russian criminals have transferred German missile technology to Iran and Syria, Agence France-Presse reported Saturday (see GSN, May 23). The warning identified 15 Russian entities, including Moscow’s State Technical University, as being connected to the transfers. “Leading-edge (German) technology sold in a completely legal fashion to Russian enterprises and research institutes has been transmitted immediately to Iranian and Syrian workshops manufacturing missiles,” Focus magazine reported in today’s edition. Tehran has already incorporated German measuring instruments and propulsion and control systems into its Shahab 3 missile, Focus reported (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 5). Back to top

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