India and Pakistan last week continued talks to develop a formal agreement to notify each other of pending missile tests, such as of the Indian Agni 2 (shown in a 2004 photo; AFP photo/Raveendran). India, Pakistan Make Progress, But Fail to Complete Missile Test Notification Agreement By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan last week moved toward a formal advance notification system for ballistic missile tests, but failed to reach a final agreement (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2004)...Full Story

Dirty Bomb Attack More Likely to Occur Than Nuclear Terrorism Incident, Experts Say Terrorists would find it difficult to acquire a nuclear weapon or the materials to build such a device, and the White House believes that other weapons of mass destruction pose a greater threat, the Washington Post reported last week (see GSN, Dec. 10, 2004)...Full Story

Terrorists Face Technical Difficulties in Acquiring Biological Warfare Capabilities, Experts Say Terrorists seeking to acquire biological weapons are likely to face a variety of technical obstacles, biological warfare experts said in a Washington Post article last week (see GSN, Dec. 14, 2004)...Full Story

	Monday, January 3, 2005

U.S. Port Security Grants Misspent, Homeland Security Department Inspector General Says U.S. Homeland Security Department grants designated for port security have not been spent on the most pressing problems, according to a forthcoming report by the department’s departing inspector general, the Associated Press reported last week (see GSN, Dec. 17, 2004). Homeland Security Department Inspector General Clark Kent Ervin blamed inadequate staffing and poor coordination for the department’s failure to prioritize needs, adding that its port security grant program needs better oversight. “The DHS does not have a strong grant evaluation process in place by which to address post-award administration issues, including measuring progress in accomplishing DHS’ grant objectives,” Ervin said in a recent summary of the report. The White House defended the department’s performance, but acknowledged that some improvements are needed. “Obviously, there are organizational challenges when you undertake the biggest government reform since the Pentagon was created, and we’re working on that,” said deputy press secretary Trent Duffy. The Homeland Security Department has disbursed roughly $560 million in port security grants over the last few years, AP reported. Agency spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said the department simplified its grant procedures in 2004. “We have made progress in integrating all of the previous disparate grant programs from the agencies that created DHS into one office in the department that is ensuring all grant dollars are maximized and spent according [to] a strategy outlining the greatest needs,” Roehrkasse said (Sam Hananel, Associated Press/Kansas City Star, Dec. 28, 2004). Back to top

Pentagon Dismisses Official Who Alleged Russian Role in Removal of Suspected Iraqi Weapons U.S. Deputy Defense Undersecretary John Shaw, who this fall alleged that Russia helped to move suspected Iraqi explosives out of the country prior to the 2003 invasion, was dismissed early last month, according to the Washington Times (see GSN, Oct. 28, 2004). A “reorganization” within the Pentagon eliminated Shaw’s position, defense officials said. Shaw, however, said he had first been asked to resign for “exceeding his authority” in disclosing information on the alleged Russian involvement, the Times reported (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Dec. 30). Back to top

Dirty Bomb Attack More Likely to Occur Than Nuclear Terrorism Incident, Experts Say Terrorists would find it difficult to acquire a nuclear weapon or the materials to build such a device, and the White House believes that other weapons of mass destruction pose a greater threat, the Washington Post reported last week (see GSN, Dec. 10, 2004). “I would say that from the perspective of terrorism, the overwhelming bulk of the evidence we have is that their efforts are focused on biological and chemical” weapons, said U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and Disarmament John Bolton. “Not to say there aren’t any dealings with radiological materials, but the technology for bio and chem is comparatively so much easier that that’s where their efforts are concentrating.” Other experts warned, however, that some groups remain committed to acquiring a nuclear weapon. “The thing to keep in mind is that while it is extremely difficult, we have highly motivated and intelligent people who would like to do it,” said Daniel Benjamin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Groups such as al-Qaeda — possessing minimal nuclear know-how and equipment — have two main avenues for acquiring an atomic bomb, experts said. The group could steal either an existing weapon or one of its essential components — plutonium or highly enriched uranium. Stealing uranium from the former Soviet Union would be the most likely way for terrorists to acquire a nuclear capability, according to nuclear scientists, while counterterrorism officials think al-Qaeda would prefer to buy a stolen Russian or Pakistani weapon, according to the Post. Experts added, however, that it would be very difficult for terrorists to figure out how to detonate such a weapon without expert assistance. Newer Russian weapons, for example, are equipped with sophisticated locking devices, the Post reported. “You’d have to run it through a specific sequence of events, including changes in temperature, pressure and environmental conditions before the weapon would allow itself to be armed, for the fuses to fall into place and then for it to allow itself to be fired,” said Charles Ferguson, a science and technology fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “You don’t get it off the shelf, enter a code and have it go off.” Older Russian atomic bombs, however, have simpler protection mechanisms, experts acknowledged, but even those devices have security features that would be difficult for an untrained individual to overcome, according to the Post. “There is a whole generation of weapons designed for artillery shells, manufactured in the 1950s, that aren’t going to have sophisticated locking devices,” said Laura Holgate, who ran nonproliferation programs at the Defense and Energy departments from 1995 to 2001. “But it is a tougher task to take a weapon created by a country, even the 1950s version, a tougher job for a group of even highly qualified Chechen terrorists to make it go boom.” Transporting such a device out of Russia would also be difficult, according to the Post. Most bombs that could be stolen would contain plutonium, which would be more easily detected by sensors due to the higher radiation levels it emits. “I wouldn’t rule out plutonium altogether, but if one were a terrorist bent upon demonstrating a nuclear explosion, the HEU route is technically much easier,” said William Potter, director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California. Some nuclear experts believe that al-Qaeda would be more likely to build a “gun-type” device combining uranium and conventional explosives, like the one used in the atomic bomb over Hiroshima. There have been 10 reported incidents of highly enriched uranium theft in the past 10 years, totaling less than 8 kilograms of material, according to a database maintained by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Moreover, the various quantities could not be easily combined because of varying levels of enrichment, while the thieves — none of whom was connected to al-Qaeda — had no buyers lined up. Nearly all were caught while trying to find one, the Post reported. “Making the connection between buyer and seller has proved to be one of the most substantial hurdles for terrorists,” said Matthew Bunn of Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom. Each of the few known attempts by al-Qaeda to obtain highly enriched uranium was foiled because there was either no seller or the material was fake. “Each time they tried, they got scammed,” said counterterrorism expert Bruce Hoffman of the RAND Corp. (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Dec. 29, 2004). A radiological weapon would be far easier to procure and to detonate, experts said. “You would need a stick of dynamite and the kind of radioactive source you find in a common smoke detector,” said Charles Ferguson, co-author of The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism. “Any person who could build a car bomb or suicide bomb, like the ones we’ve seen in Iraq or other places, could couple that to radioactive materials and that is it,” he added. Undersecretary of State Bolton said there is a risk from the availability of radiological materials, and that the United States and other countries “have not paid enough attention to this question. Everybody needs to do more work on that.” Damage from a “dirty bomb” attack would be mostly psychological, expert said. “The real effects would be economic shutdown due to contamination, as well as the social and psychological fear created,” Ferguson said (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post II, December 29, 2004). Back to top       Khan Traveled to Almost 20 Countries Before 2004 Arrest in Nuclear Network Case, Investigators Say Former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan traveled to 18 countries prior to his arrest in early 2004 for transferring nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, the New York Times reported last week (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2004). During his travels, Khan went to a number of countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, including Afghanistan, Egypt, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Tunisia, according to nuclear experts. Many of the countries Khan visited are Islamic and several are known to possess large quantities of uranium ore, the Times reported. The United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency are still working to determine the scope of the international nuclear network revealed by Khan’s confession, according to the Times. The investigation has been hampered by disputes between the United States and the U.N. nuclear watchdog and by lack of direct access to Khan. Instead, investigators must submit questions through the Pakistani government; so far, they have received little information, the Times reported. “Some questions simply were never answered,” a senior intelligence official said. “In other cases, you don’t know if you were getting Khan’s answer, or the answer the government wanted to hear.” Among the unanswered questions are what countries besides Libya may have received nuclear weapons designs from Khan, according to the Times. While investigators suspect Iran and North Korea may have obtained such information, they do not have proof. Other countries suspected of being Khan’s clients include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Sudan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Algeria, federal and private experts said. Concerns remain that sections of Khan’s network may continue to operate, the Times reported. “It may be more like al-Qaeda, where you cut off the leadership but new elements emerge,” one IAEA official said (Broad/Sanger, New York Times, Dec. 26, 2004). Back to top       Iran, EU to Resume Negotiations Economic and trade cooperation talks between Iran and the European Union are expected to resume this month, the Iranian state news agency reported (see GSN, Dec. 23, 2004). Negotiators are scheduled to meet in either Tehran or Brussels around Jan. 12, according to diplomats in Vienna. A political and security working group is also expected to hold talks this month, a Western diplomatic source told IRNA (IRNA/BBC Monitoring, Dec. 29, 2004). Meanwhile, top Iranian nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani said Saturday that negotiations were heading in the right direction but expressed disappointment that one incentive promised to Iran by the European powers — World Trade Organization membership — had not yet been realized, Agence France-Presse reported. “As part of their commitments, the Europeans were supposed to support Iran’s membership of the WTO, which they did. But we feel the Europeans did not support Iran enough. They have to get Iran become a member,” he told Iranian state television. “Since the Paris accord we can conclude the Europeans have tried to meet their commitments,” he added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Jan. 1). Back to top       ElBaradei to Run Unopposed For Third Term as Head of International Atomic Energy Agency International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei will run unopposed this year for a third four-year term leading the U.N. nuclear watchdog, ITAR-Tass reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 23, 2004). No other candidates came forward by the Dec. 31 deadline to challenge ElBaradei, according to representatives of the agency’s secretariat. The United States, however, opposes ElBaradei’s re-election, which could delay efforts by several months to reach consensus by the agency’s Board of Governors, ITAR-Tass reported (Yuri Kozlov, ITAR-Tass, Jan. 2). Back to top       CTBTO to Analyze Tsunami Data The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization’s nuclear test monitoring network is expected to provide information about last week’s earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean, but its systems were not equipped to provide early warning of the disaster, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Nov. 22, 2004). “The whole system has not been set up to warn for natural disasters,” said organization spokeswoman Daniela Rozgonova. Rozgonova said CTBTO analysts would review raw data from seismic and hydroacoustic monitoring stations in the impacted region when they return from vacation tomorrow. The organization is constructing a network of more than 320 monitoring stations to detect underwater and atmospheric nuclear tests; 175 stations are already collecting data, according to the Post. When analysts detect an unusual seismic activity, they issue preliminary announcements to some member states in one to three hours and send a more comprehensive report within 24 hours. Bernard Massinon, a French seismologist and scientific adviser to the organization, said member states could link the agency’s seismic stations throughout the region to provide a warning system for earthquakes and tsunamis. “Could we help by providing real-time data from this network?” he said. “The answer should be yes.” Geoscientists noted that other sensors immediately detected the 9.0 underwater earthquake, and that Australia issued an alert about 30 minutes after it occurred. Experts also said that, while measurements could be helpful in generating computer models of tsunami behavior, they would likely not have made a difference in last week’s disaster. “The hydroacoustic stations probably recorded a lot of energy radiated by the main earthquake and its aftershocks, but those signals wouldn’t give a clear indication of whether a tsunami was likely or not,” said Jeffrey McGuire, assistant scientist for geology and geophysics at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Dec. 30, 2004). Back to top       Pakistan, India Exchange Lists of Nuclear Sites India and Pakistan on Saturday exchanged lists of their nuclear facilities, as called for under a 1988 bilateral agreement, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2004). The agreement, which entered into force in 1991, requires the nuclear-armed rivals to exchange lists of their respective nuclear facilities at the start of each year. Under the agreement, India and Pakistan pledged not to attack each other’s nuclear sites if the two countries go to war (Agence France-Presse/Khaleej Times, Jan. 1). Back to top       Russia Tests Topol-M ICBM Russia conducted a successful test of its Topol-M ICBM on Dec. 24, according to Reuters (see GSN, Dec. 21, 2004). The test was the fourth and last of the missile before its deployment this year, according to Reuters. The system is expected to form the backbone of Russia’s missile forces by the end of the decade, according to defense experts (Reuters, Dec. 24, 2004). Back to top

Terrorists Face Technical Difficulties in Acquiring Biological Warfare Capabilities, Experts Say Terrorists seeking to acquire biological weapons are likely to face a variety of technical obstacles, biological warfare experts said in a Washington Post article last week (see GSN, Dec. 14, 2004). The medical community is cautious about selling specimens of virulent anthrax specimens, according to the Post, while live samples of smallpox are believed to exist only at two secure facilities — one in Russia and the other in the United States. Some experts, however, have said a terrorist group is likely to obtain the capability to launch biological attacks, according to the Post. Biological weapons development information is readily accessible and necessary equipment is easy to come by. Scientific advances and rapid dissemination of such knowledge are making it easier for even relatively unskilled scientists to develop pathogens, the Post reported. While there are 1,000 to 10,000 known biological “weaponeers” worldwide, there are potentially millions of “broadly skilled” scientists who could create such weapons, according to Richard Danzig, a biowarfare consultant to the U.S. Defense Department. “It seems likely that, over a period between a few months and a few years, broadly skilled individuals equipped with modest laboratory equipment can develop biological weapons,” Danzig said. “Only a thin wall of terrorist ignorance and inexperience now protects us.” A 2002 National Defense University study concluded that, at the time, rogue states or disgruntled scientists were more likely to develop large-scale biological weapons, the Post reported. Since then, dissemination of knowledge and increased availability of equipment have made it possible for less-skilled individuals to develop biological weapons, experts said (John Mintz, Washington Post, Dec. 30, 2004). Back to top       Iraqi Lawyer Calls for Release of “Dr. Anthrax” Due to Health Concerns; U.S. Says Scientist is Healthy A lawyer for former Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz on Saturday called for the release of one-time Iraqi biological weapons scientist Huda Salih Mahdi Ammash because of her poor health, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Sept. 23, 2004). Attorney Badiaa Aref Ezzat has called on U.S. President George W. Bush and interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi to free Ammash, known as “Dr. Anthrax,” from U.S. custody. Aref Ezzat said Aziz had requested the plea for Ammash’s release. “He asked me to do all I can in the case of Mrs. Ammash owing to the deterioration in her health as a consequence of the cancer she is suffering from,” the attorney said (Agence France-Presse/Channel News Asia, Jan. 1). A U.S. military officer said, however, that there are no “immediate concerns” for Ammash’s health. “We are aware that she had been treated for cancer at one time, prior to ever being detained. She is checked routinely to ensure there is no reoccurrence,” the officer said. Ammash and another suspected Iraqi biological weapons researcher, Rihab Taha, also known as “Dr. Germ,” are believed to be the only women held by the U.S. military in Iraq (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 1). Back to top

One-Third of U.S. Chemical Agent Stockpile Destroyed; Umatilla Resumes Sarin Incineration The United States has destroyed 33.34 percent of its chemical agent stockpile, the U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency announced Tuesday (see GSN, Nov. 3, 2004). “The dedicated workers at all of our disposal facilities are making great strides to eliminate these weapons and make our nation safer in the process,” agency director Michael Parker said in a press release. “We remain focused on our mission and will use our expertise, experience and resolve to continue this work until the last of this materiel is safely destroyed.” The Army has eliminated 10,503 tons of chemical agent, one-third of the U.S. stockpile, along with more than 42 percent of the nation’s chemical weapons munitions, according to the press release. The U.S. Army Nonstockpile Chemical Materiel Program has eliminated 80 percent of the country’s original chemical weapons production capabilities. Work is 16 months ahead of schedule, and the final two sites are expected to be destroyed by April 2007 (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Dec. 28, 2004). Meanwhile, the Umatilla Chemical Depot resumed destruction of sarin-filled rockets on Dec. 23, following a three-week suspension for worker retraining due to safety violations last month (see GSN, Dec. 21, 1004), the Army announced (Associated Press/Northwest News Channel 8, Dec. 25, 2004). Elsewhere, workers on Tuesday found mustard agent vapor leaking from two over-packed 155 mm projectiles at the Deseret Chemical Depot in Utah, the Army announced in a press statement. Workers placed the munitions in larger airtight containers for storage. No vapor escaped into the environment, according to the statement (Chemical Materials Agency release, Dec. 28, 2004). Back to top       Materials for “Crude” Chemical Attack Readily Accessible to Terrorists, Experts Say Raw materials for chemical terrorism are readily available, according to experts, and an attack using those materials is more likely to occur than an incident of biological or nuclear terrorism, the Washington Post reported Friday (see GSN, Dec. 7, 2004). “A crude chemical attack is within the reach of any reasonably professional terrorist group,” said Jeffrey Bale, a senior researcher at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif. “With a sufficiently toxic substance, you will succeed in killing some people.” Many experts have said, however, that weaponizing such chemicals remains difficult and dangerous. “Fortunately, this kind of thing is hard to do: It requires scientific knowledge, some sophisticated technology and skill,” said Joseph Cirincione, director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The bad news is, it’s not hard enough. And you don’t know how well these groups have learned the lessons of past failures and improved on them.” An unclassified CIA report in November said al-Qaeda had acquired “crude procedures for making mustard agent, sarin and VX,” but that the group appears to have made little progress beyond those initial stages, the Post reported. “There are few groups that have both the motivation and the capability to acquire and effectively use chemical weapons,” said senior researcher Jonathan Tucker of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “Al-Qaeda appears to have the motivation but not the capability — not yet.” The possibility remains for terrorists to buy or steal powerful chemical weapons from military stockpiles, the Post reported. Defense officials and weapons experts have offered varying assessments of whether arsenals such as the one at the Russian military site of Shchuchye are adequately protected. “The Russians claim that just one of the shells is potent enough to kill 85,000 people at a football game — every single person,” said U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), who has visited Shchuchye. “There are more than 1.9 million weapons at Shchuchye alone. Anyone who thinks this is not a problem needs to work through that arithmetic.” However, other experts have noted that a chemical attack could occur without acquisition of chemicals. By targeting chemical factories, storage bins, tanker cars or trucks that contain lethal agents, terrorists could carry out a large-scale attack. “It would be consistent with the modus operandi of al-Qaeda, which has always sought to use our Western technology against us,” Tucker said. “Like Sept. 11, such an attack would not be high-tech. But it could be very effective.” (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, Dec. 31, 2004). EDITOR’S NOTE: Richard Lugar serves on the board, of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. NTI is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by the National Journal Group. Back to top

India, Pakistan Make Progress, But Fail to Complete Missile Test Notification Agreement By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan last week moved toward a formal advance notification system for ballistic missile tests, but failed to reach a final agreement (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2004). In a joint statement released after two days of talks in Islamabad, the Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries said they had “narrowed further their differences” on the pretest notification system and “agreed to work towards its early finalization.” India and Pakistan agreed last summer to develop a formal notification system, which experts have said would improve upon the informal means the two countries now use to alert each other to pending missile tests. Last year, India and Pakistan each conducted several tests of various nuclear-capable ballistic missile systems.  Last week’s talks were the latest held as part of a peace dialogue India and Pakistan launched in early 2004 with the aim of resolving their outstanding disputes. Those issues include control of the Kashmir region, over which the two countries have fought in the past and which continues to be a potential flashpoint in the region. While Kashmir was discussed during last week’s talks, according to the joint statement, no substantial breakthrough was reported. Even so, Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran said during a press conference following the talks that he would return to India “with a renewed sense of optimism.” “I believe there are a number of areas where we can work together,” Saran said, adding, though, that the Kashmir dispute is “a complex issue, and we need time to deal with it.” Saran also said that Pakistan needs to do more to prevent cross-border terrorism in Kashmir. “Terrorism is a threat to India and Pakistan and both countries have a shared objective in confronting it. We hope in the coming days we will join hands in dealing with it,” Saran said. During the talks, Pakistan called on India to “move beyond stated positions” on Kashmir, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokhar said during a Dec. 28 press conference. He added that the conflict is “central to Pakistan-India problems and … cannot be sidelined or put on the backburner.” India and Pakistan did agree last week to increase contacts between local military commanders on both sides of the Line of Control that divides Kashmir, according to Saran. The two countries also agreed upon a system to repatriate apprehended fishermen, civilian prisoners and missing defense personnel, according to the joint statement. India and Pakistan further agreed to hold the next round of expert-level talks on several issues, including nuclear and conventional confidence-building measures, in the first half of 2005, according to the joint statement. It also says that the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers and foreign ministers are scheduled to meet during a summit to be held this month in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation; and that Indian External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh is set to travel to Pakistan next month. The Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries are next scheduled to meet this summer to review the progress of the peace dialogue, the joint statement says. Back to top

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