U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld (shown in a Jan. 26 photo with Senator John Warner (R-Va.) has expressed support for completing a study into nuclear bunker-busting bombs (AFP photo/Brendan Smialowski). Defense Secretary Aims to Revive Bunker-Buster Nuke Study U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is pressing for funding to restart the study of the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2004). “I think we should request funds in FY06 and FY07 to complete the study,” Rumsfeld wrote in a Jan. 10 memo to then-Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham. “Our staffs have spoken about funding the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator study to support its completion by April 2007.”..Full Story

New U.S. Homeland Security Department Office to Oversee Radioactive Material Monitoring The Bush administration is set to announce next month the creation of a new office within the Homeland Security Department that would coordinate the monitoring of radioactive material, officials said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 3)...Full Story

Expert Recommends U.S. Arms Control Reorganization By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. State and Defense departments should consider an organizational overhaul that would merge their arms control and nonproliferation bureaucracies and cut some State arms control offices, a former defense nonproliferation official said in a report released yesterday...Full Story

	Tuesday, February 1, 2005

Expert Recommends U.S. Arms Control Reorganization By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. State and Defense departments should consider an organizational overhaul that would merge their arms control and nonproliferation bureaucracies and cut some State arms control offices, a former defense nonproliferation official said in a report released yesterday. Cold War arms control regimes “are of far less significance to the future of the world than they once were,” according to the report by Henry Sokolski, who leads the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and was the deputy for nonproliferation policy in the office of the secretary of defense during George H. W. Bush’s administration. The report’s recommendations are intended to better focus arms control efforts on supporting nonproliferation objectives and to encourage better “innovation and creative tension between these two departments,” Sokolski said. His report, “Evaluating America’s Nonproliferation Bureaucracy,” recommends several major organizational changes: — Create an Office of the Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategic Weapons Interdiction and Nonproliferation, which would formulate nonproliferation policies and oversee implementation of agreements, proposed treaty efforts, and the activities of multilateral arms-control organizations; — Merge the State Department’s nonproliferation and arms-control bureaus into a new strategic weapons threat reductions bureau that would promote nonproliferation and oversee arms control agreements “most related to the promotion of nonproliferation,” such as the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT); and — Shift some State Department arms control bureau activities deemed less supportive of nonproliferation, such as liaising with the International Atomic Energy Agency and Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons on verification matters, to the department’s existing Bureau for Verification and Compliance. The State Department inspector general’s office recently reportedly recommended merging the department’s arms control and nonproliferation bureaus and former Secretary of State Colin Powell earlier this month reportedly issued a memo approval the proposal (see GSN, Jan. 12). Whether any reorganization occurs, however, will depend on the support of current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Sokolski said at an event last night to discuss his report. Concern About U.S. Arms Control Commitment Some experts have expressed concern that such changes could further reduce U.S. government support for international arms control activities, beyond what is perceived to have already occurred — the administration’s unwillingness to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty or support a BWC verification protocol, and its withdrawal from the Antiballistic Missile Treaty — and that that could work contrary to U.S. nonproliferation objectives (see GSN, March 27, 2002). “If you’re really concerned about country X getting new weapons systems or nonstate actors getting nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, you should focus your efforts on Russia or Pakistan … because they actually have the weapons,” said Wade Boese, research director of the Arms Control Association, who attended the event.  “That’s where the Wal-Mart of WMD is at.” Sokolski said arms control has become a less important concern than nonproliferation. “I think … any reasonable cut on this, even if you’re a Democrat, would mean that arms control, which used to be the central fulcrum for understanding whether things were getting better or worse with regard to the security of the world, with regard to things that are declared by states openly to be in their possession, is not as central as it once was. We worry at least as much with what Iran does or doesn’t have, than how we’re dealing with what Russia does have and has declared,” he said. The report suggests scaling back the number of State Department nonproliferation and arms control bureau offices, if not necessarily the functions they perform, from about 20 to five, and increasing the number of Defense Department personnel dedicated to nonproliferation. State arms control and nonproliferation offices are “overstaffed” and a number of their activities “clearly overlap,” whereas defense nonproliferation staffing is “woefully small,” the report says. It estimates the Defense Department has “only six full-time billets to cover the policy portfolios that State has approximately 200 people assigned to do.” The report does not suggest where State’s missile defense cooperation office, located in the arms control bureau, should be located. Certain priorities of the past, the report says, such as “technical cooperation, arms control-like agreements, and commodity-list-driven export controls and sanctions — are no longer the only, or even necessarily the most pressing, nonproliferation priorities.” Catchall export controls, proliferation traffic interdictions, and other counter-proliferation activities such as preparing defenses, offenses and for wars, it says, “arguably constitute the new proliferation realities that need to be focused on more and deserve attention in any reorganization of America’s nonproliferation bureaucracy.” Back to top       Bush Fills National Security Council Posts President George W. Bush yesterday announced that he has appointed Jack Crouch, the U.S. ambassador to Romania, to become deputy national security adviser, the Financial Times reported (see GSN, Jan. 7). Crouch, who served as assistant defense secretary for international security policy from 2001 to 2003, has extensive experience with arms-control issues, the Times reported. He was questioned during his 2001 Senate confirmation hearing on his support for U.S. nuclear weapons testing, on advocating destruction of North Korea’s nuclear complexes in 1995, and on his criticism of the George H.W. Bush administration for withdrawing U.S. nuclear weapons from South Korea. Meanwhile, John Rood, a senior Defense Department official, has been chosen to replace Robert Joseph as special adviser on the National Security Council. Joseph is expected to replace John Bolton as undersecretary of state for arms control, the Times reported. The promoted officials are committed to missile defense and nuclear weapons development, one official said (Guy Dinmore, Financial Times, Feb. 1). Back to top

Defense Secretary Aims to Revive Bunker-Buster Nuke Study U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is pressing for funding to restart the study of the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2004). “I think we should request funds in FY06 and FY07 to complete the study,” Rumsfeld wrote in a Jan. 10 memo to then-Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham. “Our staffs have spoken about funding the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator study to support its completion by April 2007.” A Defense Department spokesman yesterday confirmed the contents of the memo, saying the Pentagon “supports completion of the study” of the bunker-buster nuclear weapon. The Bush administration’s budget for fiscal 2006, scheduled for release next week, is expected to include $10.3 million to resume study of the weapon, an Energy Department official said yesterday. Representative David Hobson (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Appropriations Energy and Water Subcommittee, last year led successful efforts to eliminate funding for the bunker-buster study in 2005. “Until we see the budget request, it is premature to comment on what might or might not be in it,” a Hobson spokesman said yesterday. “The administration is missing a key opportunity to make good on the congressional decision last year if it were to renew funding of the study,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “It sends the wrong signal to the international community on the U.S. approach on nonproliferation, and Congress may again reject the request” (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Feb. 1). Back to top       U.S. Seeks North Korea Nuclear Talks, Rice Says U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday the United States remains interested in resuming six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 31). Rice has told senior South Korean and Chinese officials about Washington’s desire for new negotiations, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said. There was, however, “no news on North Korean willingness to show up to talks,” Boucher added (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 31). South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said today that North Korea is likely to make a commitment on talks after President George W. Bush’s State of the Union speech tomorrow, Agence France-Presse reported. “They’re expected to attend the dialogue at an appropriate time after President Bush’s address,” Ban said. Michael Green, senior director for Asian affairs on Bush’s National Security Council, is expected to fly to Seoul tomorrow for high-level talks on “a wide range of important regional and international issues including the U.S. desire to see progress at the six-party talks,” a U.S. Embassy spokesman said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Feb. 1). Analysts continue to make their case that the tone of Bush’s speech could determine whether Pyongyang rejoins the talks, the Financial Times reported. “North Korea needs some kind of face-saving measure before they can return to the talks,” said Park Young-ho of the Korea Institute for National Unification. “If President Bush avoids any bad remarks, then they may interpret the U.S. position as more flexible and come back.” “If the ‘outposts of tyranny’ are in the speech, the North Koreans will think the U.S. is more interested in name-calling than talking,” said Peter Beck of the International Crisis Group’s Northeast Asia project. “Either way, my hope is that North Korea will be able to distinguish between rhetoric and reality. The Bush administration does want to talk to them,” he added (Anna Fifield, Financial Times, Jan. 31). Elsewhere, China today continued to advocate convening working-level talks to prepare for the next full round of negotiations, AP reported. “All parties can elaborate on their positions and solve their differences,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan. “These kind of working group meetings are conducive to the resumption of talks.” “We will exert our utmost efforts to promote this,” Kong added (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 1). Some experts said yesterday that the standoff over North Korea’s nuclear program could be having a negative impact on relations between the United States and China, the Korea Times reported. “North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapon capabilities and the failure of the six-party talks to produce concrete results threatens to further undermine stability in East Asia and could put U.S. and Chinese interests in direct confrontation,” said Jon Wolfsthal, deputy director for nonproliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Hard-liners in the Bush administration could try to use the nuclear crisis as “an excuse to push for a more confrontational approach vis-…-vis China,” he added. China, meanwhile, continues to pursue its priority of reclaiming sovereignty over Taiwan, Wolfsthal said during a conference in Seoul. Chinese analyst Sun Ru argued that “U.S. policy as a whole accounted for the outbreak of the [North Korean] nuclear issue (Reuben Staines, Korea Times, Feb. 1). Back to top       ElBaradei Warns Terrorists May Have Obtained Nuclear Weapon or Related Materials By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — International Atomic Energy Agency Director Mohamed ElBaradei has warned that he could not be certain that terrorists groups had not obtained a nuclear weapon, or the material necessary to create one (see GSN, Jan. 28). “I cross my fingers ... but I cannot say 100 percent that it hasn’t happened,” he said in an interview with the Washington Post posted Sunday on the agency’s Web site, referring to the likelihood that terrorists may have obtained a complete nuclear weapon. Terrorists may also have obtained former Soviet nuclear material, which for “a period of time” following the end of the Cold War “was not adequately protected,” ElBaradei told the Post during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “I hope nothing significant went to a terrorist group, but it would be irresponsible for me to exclude it,” he said. “If it were to happen, it would have disastrous consequences.” Earlier this month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said that Russia had maintained tight control over its nuclear arsenal and stockpiles of weapon-grade materials — a claim that was challenged by nonproliferation experts (see GSN, Jan. 14). In his interview, ElBaradei commented extensively on the issue of Iran’s nuclear efforts, saying he was “proud” of the results his agency has achieved so far in resolving the crisis (see related GSN story, today). “Eighteen months ago, Iran was a black box — we didn’t know much about what was happening. Now, we have a fairly good picture of what is happening. We understand how complex and extensive that program is,” he said. ElBaradei also rejected recent suggestions of possible military action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, saying such talk was “very unhelpful” (see related GSN story, today). “You might delay them, but they will rebuild it with the objective of having a weapon,” he said. Praising the efforts of several European nations to negotiate with Iran to resolve the nuclear issue, ElBaradei said the United States also needed to either participate along with the Europeans or engage directly with Tehran. “I don’t think you will get a permanent solution of the Iranian issue without full U.S. engagement,” he said. “The U.S. engages with North Korea so I don’t see why they can’t engage with Iran.” ElBaradei said the Iranian nuclear issue was one of several he hoped to resolve before leaving the U.N. nuclear watchdog, along with the nuclear crisis on Korean Peninsula and the investigation into the international nuclear network formerly headed by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. The director general is hoping to extend his tenure for a third term this year and is running unopposed. While the Bush administration has opposed ElBaradei’s candidacy, it has reportedly been so far unsuccessful in its efforts to replace him (see GSN, Jan. 24). If re-elected, ElBaradei told the Post, he would stress his agency’s “impartial and independent” nature. “I will not compromise on this,” he said. In addition, ElBaradei reiterated the need to restrict the spread of nuclear fuel cycle technologies to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. “Any country which has a complete fuel cycle is a latent nuclear weapons country, in the sense that it is not far from making a nuclear weapon,” he said. ElBaradei and the Bush administration have each proposed differing approaches toward restricting the spread of nuclear technology. The Bush administration has proposed a ban on the export of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to nations that currently do not possess them. In a separate interview with the New York Times last week in Davos, ElBaradei fleshed out his proposal, which calls for a five-year moratorium on construction of uranium enrichment facilities. Countries instead could lease nuclear fuel from an international consortium. He told the Times that his proposal would probably have more international support by being applicable to all countries (see GSN, Jan. 7). “To get everybody to agree, it would have to be a moratorium,” ElBaradei was quoted as saying. “You would have a number of countries overseeing each other, to make sure there is no misuse of the system.” ElBaradei plans to present his plan during a Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty conference in May, according to the Times article. Back to top       Israel Could Attack Iranian Nuclear Installations, Senior U.S. State Department Official Warns A senior U.S. official yesterday reiterated U.S. warnings that Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear installations, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 31). “The vice president said we’re very concerned that this might happen,” Undersecretary of State John Bolton said, referring to a statement last month by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney (see GSN, Jan. 21). “Israel destroyed the Osirak reactor in Iraq. They have a history of this,” Bolton added. Bolton said the United States is prepared to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and store its components at the Energy Department’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, as was done with Libya’s nuclear weapons-related equipment. “Libya provides a case where a regime can give up weapons of mass destruction and stay in power,” he said. “We didn’t make any deals with Libya. Libya made its decision based on what it saw in Iraq.” Bolton, finishing his trip to Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, said he discussed U.S. allegations that Iran is developing nuclear weapons with officials from the Persian Gulf states. “All the countries we consulted with agree with our fundamental bottom line, that Iran shouldn’t have nuclear weapons,” he said (Jim Krane, Associated Press, Jan. 31). A senior Defense Department official said today Washington would continue to back diplomatic efforts by the European Union to persuade Iran to give up its sensitive nuclear work, Reuters reported. “We are supporting that and are hoping that diplomacy... and the pressure that can be brought to bear on Iran will lead the Iranians to recognize that Iran’s interests are best served by getting rid of its nuclear weapons program,” said Defense Undersecretary Douglas Feith (Reuters, Feb. 1). Iranian nuclear energy program head Gholamreza Aghazadeh and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana are scheduled to discuss “EU-Iran relations and nonproliferation issues” today in Brussels, according to an EU statement (Associated Press, Feb. 1). Meanwhile, Tehran is prepared to sign an agreement on return of spent nuclear fuel to Russia, allowing Moscow to complete work on a nuclear reactor in Iran, Agence France-Presse reported.  “[Russian atomic energy chief Alexander] Rumyantsev will visit Iran at the end of February to discuss this question,” said Iranian Ambassador Gholamreza Shafei, according to ITAR-Tass. “Tehran is ready to sign a commercial agreement on this issue.” (Agence France-Presse/IranMania.com, Feb. 1). Back to top       U.S. Senate Confirms Energy Secretary Nominee The U.S. Senate yesterday unanimously confirmed by a voice vote Samuel Bodman to serve as the next energy secretary, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Jan. 26). Senators said Bodman’s academic and business background made him a good choice to head the Energy Department, AP reported (H. Josef Hebert, Associated Press/San Francisco Chronicle, Jan. 31). Back to top

CIA Reverses Assessment of Iraq’s Chemical Weapons The CIA has issued a classified report reputing its previous assessments of prewar Iraq’s alleged chemical weapons program, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, Dec. 8, 2004). “Iraq probably did not pursue chemical warfare efforts after 1991,” says the Jan. 18 report. The new conclusions “vary significantly” from past assessments “largely because of subsequent events and direct access to Iraqi officials, scientists, facilities and documents,” the report states. “It's basically updating the books, so the information on the shelf is the most current,” an intelligence official said, describing the report. Current and former intelligence officials said, however, that it was surprising to see the CIA issue a report reversing past views. “The situation is rather unique,” said former senior agency official Richard Kerr. “Ordinarily, you’re never proven wrong in a clean, neat way” (Greg Miller, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 1). Meanwhile, retiring U.S. Defense Undersecretary Douglas Feith yesterday defended the decision to invade Iraq, saying it had been “clear” that prewar Iraq had WMD programs. “The principal error in the intelligence was whether the Iraqis had stockpiles as opposed to programs. What we found is they had the programs, they didn’t have the stockpiles,” he said yesterday (Agence France-Presse, Jan. 31). Back to top       Chemical Weapons Convention Change Allowing Conversion of Former Weapons Sites Enters Into Force A technical change to the Chemical Weapons Convention allowing countries that recently joined the treaty, or will do so in the future, to convert former chemical weapons facilities to peaceful uses has entered into force, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 2, 2004). Previously, all such conversions were to have been done prior to April 29, 2003, according to an OPCW press release.  The organization will monitor all converted facilities during their remaking and for 10 years afterward. The change will allow Libya to convert a former chemical weapons facility to produce pharmaceuticals, and will also hopefully serve as an incentive for the 27 countries that have not yet joined the treaty to do so, the OPCW press release states (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons release, Jan. 31). Back to top

U.S. Missile Defense Test Schedule to Work Around Alaska Cod, Crab Season, Official Says The U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s next target test launch from the Kodiak Launch Complex in Alaska is expected to be scheduled around cod and tanner crab fishing season, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 13). Officials previously had said the next test would occur in mid-February, but that timing “is being adjusted to accommodate the needs of the cod and tanner crab fishermen,” according to agency commander Lt. Gen. Henry Obering. The Gulf of Alaska cod season began Jan. 1 and is likely to close by mid-February, according to AP. The tanner crab season could last until March 31, though none are presently being caught due to a dispute between fishermen and processors (Associated Press/Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, Jan. 31). Back to top

New U.S. Homeland Security Department Office to Oversee Radioactive Material Monitoring The Bush administration is set to announce next month the creation of a new office within the Homeland Security Department that would coordinate the monitoring of radioactive material, officials said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 3). The office for domestic nuclear detection’s responsibilities would include researching new detection technologies and improving training on their use, helping to decide where detectors should be installed and leading the federal response to detected material, according to the New York Times. The office would include representatives from several governmental agencies, including the Defense, Energy and State departments and the FBI, the Times reported. The program is set to receive about $200 million in initial funding, with half coming from new money and half taken from other programs, according to an administration official. The Homeland Security Department has placed more than 400 radiation monitors over the last two years at U.S. ports, border crossings and post offices, the Times reported. The agency plans to continue to add monitors, and cities such as New York have also been buying equipment to detect radioactive material (Lipton/Wald, New York Times, Feb. 1).     Back to top

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