North Korea is prepared to return to negotiations on its nuclear program under certain conditions, leader Kim Jong Il told a Chinese envoy over the weekend (see GSN, Feb. 18).
“We will go to the negotiating table anytime if there are mature conditions for the six-party talks thanks to the concerted efforts of the parties concerned in the future,” the official North Korean news agency KCNA quoted Kim as telling Wang Jiarui, head of the Chinese Communist Party’s liaison department.
Kim added that he is looking for signs of “trustworthy sincerity” from the United States, according to Reuters. U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Christopher Hill said Beijing would propose the next step in the negotiation process, which includes North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the United States. “We’ll wait to see what the host of the six-party talks has to say and whether they’re going to schedule something in the near future,” he said (Jack Kim, Reuters, Feb. 22). China today said the United States and North Korea should increase efforts to resume talks, Agence France-Presse reported. “We think all sides should make more efforts, to show goodwill, flexibility and sincerity,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan. “But the key thing is that the main parties, North Korea and the United States, should make greater efforts” (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Feb. 22). South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said today that Kim’s indication of a possible resumption of talks was a positive move, AFP reported. “Chairman Kim Jong Il’s remarks reaffirmed my earlier belief that Pyongyang has not shut up the door for dialogue,” Ban said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Feb. 22). Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei appealed to North Korea to allow agency inspectors to return to the country to conduct nuclear inspections, the Associated Press reported. “If it requires a special gesture, I am ready to go myself,” ElBaradei told Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine. He added that, while his agency has no hard evidence that North Korea has nuclear weapons, Pyongyang has the technology and enough plutonium to make “at least six to eight bombs” (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 19). Elsewhere, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura on Saturday called for an unconditional resumption of talks, the Los Angeles Times reported. Negotiations could help North Korea change its international standing and could produce “mutual security guarantees,” Rice said. “They ought to return to those talks so that people don't have to contemplate other measures,” she said (Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 20). Talks between Japan, the United States and South Korea are being planned to discuss North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda said yesterday, AP reported (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 20).
By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — Increased international pressure is needed to convince Iran to make a “strategic decision” to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions, a senior U.S. State Department official said Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 18). During a panel discussion held here at this year’s meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Mark Fitzpatrick reiterated the Bush administration’s position that Iran should be referred to the U.N. Security Council for further action due to its past nuclear activities. While the United States welcomed the efforts of three major European powers — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — that resulted in Tehran agreeing to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, the administration is “deeply skeptical” that Iran will maintain the suspension without additional international pressure, he said. If International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors determine that Iran has violated the suspension, the agency’s Board of Governors should be immediately notified, Fitzpatrick said, adding that the board would be expected to refer Iran to the Security Council. While the council could choose to impose sanctions on Tehran, that is not the “first nor the inevitable” step, he said. The United States would expect the Security Council to “reinforce, rather than supplant” IAEA efforts by requesting that Tehran implement a verifiable suspension of all fissile material production programs, Fitzpatrick said. The Security Council could also require that Iran take such action, he said. The United States “looks forward” to discussing the issue of Iran’s nuclear program at next week’s scheduled meeting of the IAEA board, Fitzpatrick said. The “stakes are very high” on Iran’s nuclear program, David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security, said during Sunday’s meeting. Development of nuclear weapons by Tehran could lead other countries in the Middle East, such as Egypt, to follow suit, he said. Iran could also become a supplier of nuclear technologies, Albright said. Albright called on the Bush administration to try to reduce the “paranoia” being created in Tehran by U.S. allusions to possible military action against Iranian nuclear sites. He cited during his presentation satellite imagery taken about two weeks ago of a uranium conversion facility near the city of Isfahan that showed tunnels being constructed. The tunnels appear to be larger than necessary for storage purposes, Albright said, indicating Iran may be planning to move some of the facility’s operations underground. Iran is “working very hard” to finish the tunnels at the uranium conversion facility, Albright said, adding that it demonstrates Iranian officials are “hedging their bets” by seeking to make military action as difficult as possible. Bush Administration Nonproliferation EffortsThe international attention the United States has been able to bring to bear on Iran’s nuclear efforts is one of several nonproliferation successes achieved by the Bush administration, Fitzpatrick said. In his remarks, he outlined the progress being made in a number of White House efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear arms and other weapons of mass destruction, many of which were first proposed by President George W. Bush in February 2004. “The administration is daily working to create a stronger and more effective set of tools to counter nuclear proliferation,” Fitzpatrick said. “This administration’s action and priorities for addressing nuclear proliferation are geared to ensure that we not only strengthen the existing regime now before it is too late, but also develop cooperative relationships to actively counter proliferation activities.” By the end of the year, the administration hopes the Nuclear Suppliers Group will agree to making ratification of the IAEA Additional Protocol, which gives the agency increased authority to monitor a country’s nuclear activities, a condition of supply for transfers of controlled dual-use nuclear technologies, Fitzpatrick said. The Nuclear Suppliers Group is a 40-member voluntary multilateral export control regime that governs trade in nuclear-related technology (see GSN, May 28, 2004). Fitzpatrick said there was “pretty good support” for the proposal within the group, which operates by consensus. In addition, the White House is working within the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Group of Eight top economic powers to restrict the transfers of uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing technologies to those countries that already possess them to prevent states seeking nuclear weapons from doing so under the guise of civilian programs, Fitzpatrick said. G-8 leaders agreed during their annual meeting last summer to a one-year freeze on the export of such technologies. The administration is working to strengthen the U.N. nuclear watchdog and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, “both of which need to remain credible cornerstones of the global nonproliferation regime,” Fitzpatrick said. As examples, he cited efforts to create a Special Committee on Safeguards within the agency and to urge all countries to conclude IAEA safeguards agreements and to sign and ratify the Additional Protocol. The administration also plans during this year’s NPT review conference, set to be held in May, to urge countries to hold treaty violators accountable for their actions, Fitzpatrick said (see GSN, Feb. 3). “Only by holding violators accountable can we encourage them to come back into compliance and to deter other states that might be contemplating violating their obligations in the future,” he said. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, outlined an action plan of steps NPT members should take during this year’s review conference to help improve the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. Such measures include an agreement to establish more effective controls on fissile material production technologies, expanded IAEA authority to monitor compliance with such an agreement, accelerated progress by the five nuclear weapons states to fulfill their disarmament obligation under the treaty, improved standards for securing weapon-useable materials, clarification that countries may not withdraw from the treaty and avoid being punished for past violations and efforts to resolve the Iran and North Korean nuclear issues, as well as other regional conflicts that may spur proliferation. The United States is also working to help U.N. members comply with Security Council Resolution 1540, adopted last April, which requires countries to put in place effective national mechanisms to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction, their delivery systems and related items, Fitzpatrick said (see GSN, Dec. 10, 2004). “Part of the 1540 process, as we see it, is to drive home the point to all members that all countries must a have firm commitment to prevent proliferation,” he said. “Proliferators are infinitely adaptive and will find the weak links. … Closing these loopholes at the national level is critical to an effective global nonproliferation regime.” Other “tangible dividends” resulting from U.S. nonproliferation efforts include Libya’s decision to abandon the development of weapons of mass destruction and the shutdown of the international nuclear network formerly led by Pakistani nuclear scientists Abdul Qadeer Khan, Fitzpatrick said. “We have already seen promising results on these initiatives as the international community recognizes the urgency of the problem. But our work is far from over,” he said.
By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — The threat posed by quantities of Russian nuclear materials whose whereabouts are unknown is equal to or greater than that posed by North Korea’s nuclear efforts, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee said Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 17). “I think you can legitimately look at North Korea and the unaccounted-for nuclear weapons parts in Russia and have a real debate as to which is more threatening to the world right now,” Senator Jay Rockefeller (W.Va.) said on FOX News Sunday. Last week, CIA Director Porter Goss testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that there was enough missing Russian nuclear material to develop a nuclear weapon. Goss also testified that he could not be certain that some of that material had not been obtained by terrorists. Senior Russian officials, however, have denied allegations of stolen nuclear weapons or weapon-grade materials. The issue is likely to be a key topic of discussion during Thursday’s scheduled meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Slovakian capital of Bratislava. A report prepared last fall by a CIA in-house think tank, obtained last week by Global Security Newswire, also warns of “undetected smuggling” of Russian nuclear materials. “We are concerned about the total amount of material that could have been diverted or stolen in the last 13 years,” says the November report, prepared by the National Intelligence Council. Congress has directed the director of central intelligence to submit an annual report on the safety and security of Russian nuclear facilities and military forces. The November report updates information submitted to lawmakers in 2002. The CIA last week declined to comment on the report. Continued progress has been made on improving security enhancements at Russian civilian institutes and naval sites that house nuclear materials, according to the report. While Russia has made improvements in its own nuclear material, protection, control and accounting practices, “risks of undetected theft remain,” the report says. Rockefeller on Sunday questioned Russia’s ability to guard nuclear materials. “The point is that a lot of those people who protect those places can be bribed,” he said. Concerns also still exist that a lack of U.S. access to sensitive materials at Russian nuclear weapons sites has hindered security enhancement efforts, the CIA report says. It also warns that Russia may not be able to maintain security upgrades the United States has helped to install. “We are concerned that Russia may not be able to sustain U.S.-provided security upgrades of facilities over the long-term given the cost and technical sophistication of at least some of the equipment involved,” the report says. The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, which conducts a number of projects to upgrade security at Russian sites, did not return calls for comment. “The key question” on whether Russia can sustain U.S.-installed security upgrades is Moscow’s own commitment to doing so, Matthew Bunn of Harvard University’s Managing the Atom project said today. While Russia has a growing economy, a budget surplus and personnel with experience in managing modern safeguards systems, he said, there is also a lack of dedicated budget line items for security at nuclear sites and lack of regulation on the types of terrorist threats sites should be able to defend against. In addition to technical issues, Russian nuclear facilities also need personnel who have high levels of integrity and are competent to manage installed safeguards, said Bill Hoehn, Washington office director for the Russian American Nuclear Security Advisory Council. “It’s a very serious issue,” Hoehn said today, referring to sustainability concerns. The National Intelligence Council report says that the threat of an unauthorized launch or accidental use of a Russian nuclear weapon “is highly unlikely as long as current technical and procedural safeguards built into the command and control system remain in place and are effectively enforced.” It warns, though, that despite increased security, Russian nuclear power plants “almost certainly will remain vulnerable to a well-planned and executed terrorist attack.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday rejected suspicions that Iran is operating a nuclear weapons program and pledged that Moscow’s nuclear-power cooperation with Tehran would continue, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 18). “The latest steps from Iran confirm that Iran does not intend to produce nuclear weapons,” Putin said during a meeting in Moscow with Iranian National Security Council chief Hassan Rohani, adding that Russia “will continue to develop relations in all spheres, including the peaceful use of nuclear energy.” Putin added, however, that the “spread of nuclear weapons on the planet does not aid security.” “We hope that Iran will strictly adhere to all international agreements, in relation to Russia and the international community.” Putin plans to visit Iran at some point, though a date has not been set, AP reported. A Russian analyst questioned Putin’s claim on Iran’s nuclear development. “To my mind, it’s hard to find arguments to support Putin’s declaration,” said Anton Khlopkov of the PIR Center. “Iran is potentially an important strategic partner for Russia ... (with) a whole series of coinciding interests,” he added. “Russia intends not to allow the isolation of Iran,” Khlopkov said (Associated Press/USA Today, Feb. 22). U.S. President George W. Bush insisted yesterday that Iran renounce nuclear weapons, Reuters reported. “In safeguarding the security of free nations no option can be taken permanently off the table,” said Bush during a speech in Brussels (Reuters, Feb. 21). Bush reiterated Friday that Washington would not join negotiations between Iran and France, Germany and the United Kingdom, Agence France-Presse reported. “The Iranians, I read the other day where they said, ‘we can’t go forward unless this, that or the other — unless the United States is involved,’” Bush said. “The Iranians don’t need any excuses,” Bush said. “They just need to do what the free world has asked them to do. And it’s pretty clear: Give up your weapons program.” Bush said he would discuss Iran’s nuclear program Thursday with Putin. “He’s got influence in that area, on that subject, and he agrees with our friends in Europe that the Iranians should not have a nuclear weapon. And that’s the common goal,” he said (Olivier Knox, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Feb. 19). Meanwhile, an Iranian official said yesterday that Tehran would not give up its uranium enrichment technologies as part of a negotiated settlement with the European powers, Reuters reported. “I believe the European countries have eventually understood that Iran’s nuclear capability is not for sale,” said Sirus Naseri, a senior Iranian negotiator. “The final agreement in these negotiations will be based on the continuation of (uranium) enrichment by Iran,” Naseri told the official IRNA news agency. “We will give the Europeans an opportunity to reach this stance but this opportunity won’t be permanent” (Reuters, Feb. 21). International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei called on Washington to join Europe’s negotiations with Iran in an interview published yesterday in Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine, AFP reported. The negotiations can only succeed “if the United States joins in and throws its weight behind it,” ElBaradei said. ElBaradei warned that Tehran had the technology and the industrial capacity to build an atomic bomb in two to three years. He also said a U.S. military attack on Iran, which Washington has refused to rule out, would cause Tehran to redouble any nuclear weapons efforts. “After such an attack, the Iranians would certainly set themselves in earnest to making a bomb in secret,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Feb. 19). An IAEA team this month conducted a routine inspection of Natanz, an Iranian facility the United States and others believe has been used for covert nuclear weapons development, USA Today reported. “Natanz is a frozen facility,” said IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky. “The inspectors’ job is to ensure that the suspension is in force.” Iran has refused to provide IAEA inspectors with visas to allow frequent checks on the facility, according to USA Today. Delays could give Iran time to move sensitive work and scrub the facilities, Western officials have said. “Even with intrusive IAEA inspections at Natanz, there is a serious risk that Iran could use its enrichment technology in covert activities,” then-CIA Director George Tenet told Congress in March (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, Feb. 22). Elsewhere, King Abdullah II of Jordan said the United States and its allies should not take military action against Iran, according to an interview published Sunday in Spain’s El Pais, AFP reported. “If Western forces now start a military conflict with another country in this part of the world, be it Iran or elsewhere, that will only bring more instability. We hope that if there is a problem between Iran and the West it will be resolved by peaceful means,” he said. “If we have to confront Iran ... we will eventually have to confront the Israeli program,” he added, referring to Israel’s suspected nuclear weapons program. “Probably one of the reasons that Iran is developing it is that Israel has one,” he added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Feb. 20).
By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — U.S. scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico have developed a way to use cosmic radiation to help detect nuclear weapons or materials possibly being smuggled into the United States, the laboratory announced Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 1). The technique involves the use of muons, which are produced when cosmic radiation decays as it hits the Earth. Los Alamos researchers have developed a system that uses muon radiography to detect uranium, plutonium or other dense materials. A suspect object, such as a cargo container, is passed through two pairs of detectors — one set above the object and one below — that record muons’ paths before and after they pass through the object. Analysis of the energy and trajectory of the muons results in a three-dimensional map of the inside of the suspect object, according to a Los Alamos release. “If we measure the muon’s path and energy with two detectors going in and two coming out, we have a straight line on either side that tells us how much the target deflects the muon, and we can locate the highly dense objects, as well as distinguishing between materials,” Los Alamos researcher Larry Schultz said in the release. The detector is capable of spotting nuclear materials even through heavy shielding, such as lead, the release says. Scientists have been able to “train the system to spot objects of interest with a rate of false positives and false negatives that is less than 3 percent,” Rick Chartrand of the laboratory’s Theoretical Division said in the release. “We think we can continue to improve that.” Los Alamos researchers described their efforts to develop a nuclear detector using muon radiography during a presentation in Washington at this year’s meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The Bush administration has placed a new focus on combating the smuggling of nuclear and radioactive materials, requesting funds in its proposed fiscal 2006 budget to create an office of domestic nuclear detection within the Homeland Security Department. The new office reportedly would include representatives from several governmental agencies, including the Defense, Energy and State departments, and would focus on activities such as developing new detection techniques and increasing training in their use. Muon radiography has several advantages over detectors now deployed at U.S. borders, which use either X-rays or gamma rays, according to the laboratory. For example, gamma-ray detectors are less penetrating than those using muons, produce results that require additional interpretation and require the use of hazardous material such as cobalt. Los Alamos scientists are now working to develop a set of muon radiography detectors large enough to scan large metal objects within 60 seconds. As the process develops, inspectors using the detectors may be able to clear a vehicle within about 20 seconds of muon exposure, the laboratory release says. “We believe we’ve worked through all of the major obstacles to building a prototype system for a range of security issues,” Chris Morris of the laboratory’s Physics Division said in the release.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei has alleged that his opponents are attempting to discredit him by questioning his impartiality in Middle Eastern-related affairs, Agence France-Presse reported Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 10). In an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel published yesterday, ElBaradei, who is Egyptian, said he has been accused of being biased in favor of Muslim countries that might be operating nuclear programs. “There’s a real campaign against me, trying to drag me through the mud,” he was quoted as saying (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Feb. 19). Meanwhile, IAEA Board of Governors Chairwoman Ingrid Hall is expected to present by the end of the month a report on whether to extend ElBaradei’s tenure as head of the agency to a third term. The board will need to decide on the issue before June so the new agency chief can be approved by the IAEA General Conference, according to the Kuwait News Agency (Kuwait News Agency, Feb. 21).
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