Activities at Iran’s heavy-water research reactor site (above) have recently drawn international scrutiny, but a U.S. commission is expected to question the confidence of U.S. assessments that Iran has nuclear weapon ambitions (AFP photo). U.S. Commission Finds Iran WMD Evidence Inadequate U.S. intelligence agencies have not gathered enough intelligence to develop concrete conclusions on Iran’s possible development of weapons of mass destruction, a bipartisan commission is expected to tell U.S. President George W. Bush this month in a classified report (see GSN, March 8)...Full Story

Experts Question Merit of Recent Smallpox Exercise By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Some biological weapons experts have criticized a highly publicized smallpox attack exercise conducted last month that involved prominent current and former officials from the United States and Europe (see GSN, Jan. 18)...Full Story

Senate Likely to Confirm Bolton for U.N. Slot, Lawmakers Say; International Analysts React The U.S. Senate will probably confirm President George W. Bush’s pick for the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Undersecretary of State John Bolton, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 8)...Full Story

	Wednesday, March 9, 2005

Decision Looms for UNMOVIC’s Future Following a meeting yesterday, U.N. Security Council members said that the time is rapidly approaching to discuss the future of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Feb. 28). “What seems clear now is that the idea that the mandate should be revised is now becoming a reality,” said Brazilian Ambassador and current council President Ronaldo Mota Sardenberg. “So this is a next step for the council.” The issue may be one for consideration once a permanent Iraqi government is elected under a new constitution, which is expected to occur by the end of the year, Sardenberg said. Chief U.N. weapons inspector Demetrius Perricos said Iraq’s biological, chemical and missile capabilities should still be examined to ensure they cannot be revived, diplomats told AP. Questions also remain about missiles, toxic chemicals and other items that remained after U.N. personnel left Iraq prior to the U.S.-led invasion, diplomats said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press, March 8). Back to top       U.S. Lawmakers Call for New Sanctions Against Syria U.S. lawmakers yesterday proposed legislation that would withhold U.S. aid from any country that might assist Syria in developing weapons of mass destruction, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Nov. 10, 2004). The Lebanon and Syria Liberation Act, sponsored by Representatives Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) and Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), also calls for new U.N. and international sanctions to be imposed against Syria, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 8). Back to top

U.S. Commission Finds Iran WMD Evidence Inadequate U.S. intelligence agencies have not gathered enough intelligence to develop concrete conclusions on Iran’s possible development of weapons of mass destruction, a bipartisan commission is expected to tell U.S. President George W. Bush this month in a classified report (see GSN, March 8). Bush last year requested that the panel — led by retired federal judge Laurence Silberman and former Virginia Governor and Senator Charles Robb — assess the overall quality of U.S. intelligence on WMD proliferation. The commission’s report is also expected to criticize U.S. intelligence on North Korea, according to the New York Times. U.S. intelligence on Iran is “scandalous” given that the country is more open than secretive nations such as North Korea, according to one source familiar with the panel’s deliberations and conclusions. While U.S. intelligence agencies have devoted substantial resources to Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, they have not succeeded in penetrating the country’s decision-making circles, said former U.S. officials with Iran expertise. The panel is expected to issue a public document at about the same time as it presents Bush with the classified report. The report is also expected to include recommendations for further structural changes among U.S. intelligence agencies, according to the Times (Jehl/Schmitt, New York Times, March 9). The international community needs to consider potential actions against Iran if Tehran fails to reach a negotiated settlement with the European Union over its nuclear program, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said yesterday. Iran should “fully comply with its obligations,” to the International Atomic Energy Agency, he said, according to Agence France-Presse. “It needs to sign the Additional Protocol [to its IAEA safeguards agreement]. It needs to turn this temporary suspension into a permanent cessation of enrichment activities,” he said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, March 8). U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday repeated his backing of the negotiation effort by France, Germany and the United Kingdom, AFP reported. “We want our allies to succeed, because we share the view that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would be destabilizing and threatening to all of Iran’s neighbors,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 8). The European Union also yesterday called on Iran to maintain its uranium enrichment freeze. “It is important to remain vigilant over the need for Iran to maintain, under surveillance by (U.N. nuclear inspectors), a total suspension of its activities without exception so long as the negotiations last,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Nicolas Schmit of Luxembourg, which holds the rotating EU presidency. He added that “a total suspension (is) the condition for the continuation and success” of the talks (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, March 8). Iran yesterday warned that it would end talks with EU representatives if they continued to insist that Tehran abandon uranium enrichment, Reuters reported. The EU has said Iran must terminate its uranium enrichment program, while Iran has insisted it would not go beyond permitting increased inspections and limiting enrichment levels, according to Reuters. “If ambiguities over the guarantees remain in place, continuation of the talks will be meaningless,” said Sirus Naseri, a senior Iranian negotiator. European diplomats close to the talks told Reuters no breakthroughs were expected in a round of negotiations this week (Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, March 8). Back to top       Russia Proposes, Then Retracts, Treaty Withdrawal Russia recently suggested to the United States that it might withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, but later backed away from the idea, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, July 20, 2003). Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov in January asked U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld how the Bush administration would react if Moscow withdrew from the pact, according to the Times. A U.S. official and a Russian source said that Rumsfeld did not object to the idea. Pentagon spokesman Larry Di Rita, however, denied that the department raised no objection. “The U.S. is a signatory and it is a treaty that is serving a useful purpose,” Di Rita said. “The issue arose in the context of general discussion and the secretary said that it was an issue for the interagency (process), it was not a (Pentagon) issue.” A Russian Foreign Ministry delegation later traveled to Washington to withdraw the proposal, a Russian source said. The Defense and State departments refused to confirm whether the proposal had been withdrawn, the Times reported. Under the 1987 treaty, the United States and Soviet Union were required to permanently dispose of nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. The treaty also bars future development of such missiles (Wetzel/Sevastopulo/Dinmore, Financial Times, March 8). Back to top       U.S. Envoy Says North Korea Cannot Drive Wedge Between Other Members of Six-Party Talks U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Christopher Hill said any efforts by North Korea to divide other members of the stalled six-party talks would fail, Reuters reported (see GSN, March 8). “There is no dividing us on this issue,” Hill, the lead U.S. negotiator in Pyongyang’s nuclear program, said of China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. Hill reiterated that Washington has peaceful aims. “We have absolutely no intention of invading North Korea,” he said.  “We don’t have any nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula,” he added (Jon Herskovitz, Reuters, March 9). Hill left Seoul today for Japan for two days of meetings on resuming six-party talks, while South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Song Min-soon headed to Russia on a five-day mission, according to AFP (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, March 9). Russia’s close relationship to North Korea could prove helpful in persuading Pyongyang to resume talks, South Korea Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said today, the Associated Press reported (Soo-Jeong Lee, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 8). Back to top

Experts Question Merit of Recent Smallpox Exercise By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Some biological weapons experts have criticized a highly publicized smallpox attack exercise conducted last month that involved prominent current and former officials from the United States and Europe (see GSN, Jan. 18). The tabletop simulation used unrealistic assumptions to project massive casualties and scare the public and Western governments into thinking there is a strong potential for an attack that is actually unlikely to occur, the experts said. The exercise, called Atlantic Storm, was run by the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. A terrorist organization, the experts said, is not likely to be able to conduct the smallpox attack as portrayed in the exercise, according to the experts. Nor would Islamic terrorists be expected to want to conduct such an attack, as the highly infectious disease could devastate the developing world, including Islamic countries, more than prominent Western targets that have significant vaccine stores, said Martin Furmanski, a physician who studies the medical aspects of chemical and biological weapons. “It really is a political set piece. They sent everybody home on Jan. 14 with this idea of a big smallpox outbreak,” Furmanski said. “There’s nothing about the scenario that’s impossible. It’s just that their particular twist is highly unlikely.” By overstating the threat, the exercise’s organizers may have promoted terrorist interest in smallpox, he said. “They really did a disservice.” The exercise employs “thoroughly implausible assumptions,” according to Milton Leitenberg, a senior research scholar at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. The organizers of the exercise defended the scenario, disputing some of the facts and conclusions presented by critics and arguing that the scenario’s assumptions are within the realm of possibility. “We made every effort to be scientifically credible, and I think our assumptions speak for themselves and we are quite prepared to defend the assumptions that were necessary to create a plausible story,” said the center’s director, Tara O’Toole. “Each issue within the exercise was discussed in detail over months with a large group of individuals from various communities,” said retired Air Force Col. Randall Larsen, who was the war-gaming expert for the exercise. Portraying Reality According to Atlantic Storm’s script, scientists of a fictional al-Qaeda splinter group acquired smallpox seed cultures from a biological weapons facility in the former Soviet Union. With the help of a former Soviet weapons scientist using open-market dual-use equipment, the group developed a “high-quality” dry powder weapon in a laboratory disguised as an Austrian brewery.  The agent then was sprayed in seven heavily trafficked sites in Europe and the United States using, a “commercially available dry powder dispenser the size of a small fire extinguisher hidden in a backpack.” By the end of the one-day, real-time exercise on Jan. 14, more than 600,000 people were projected to become infected and 25 percent to die. While Atlantic Storm literature published on the Center for Biosecurity’s Web site said the exercise was conducted in part to “generate political momentum and support for improving national and international biosecurity preparedness,” it also was meant to help leaders understand tough decisions they might face with a real attack.  “We wanted people to understand that we think this is a really real threat we’re not prepared for and that we need to really take seriously,” O’Toole said. The exercise apparently conveyed a sense of plausibility to the media, driving stories in major newspapers and play-by-play coverage of the game by ABC News’ Nightline and National Public Radio. Terrorist Capabilities/Expertise Questioned The critics questioned the plausibility of the scenario on a number of counts, including that a terror group could develop a dry powder smallpox weapon, which they said would be expected to require a massive program more within the capabilities of a government. The U.S. offensive biological weapons program did not succeed in producing a dry powder weapon before it was ended in 1969 and the British program did not even attempt to, Leitenberg wrote in a critique of the exercise he privately circulated. That technical challenge was also never solved by the massive Soviet program, according to Furmanski, citing a book by defector Ken Alibek, and so would likely be well beyond the capabilities of an al-Qaeda splinter group. Why would “al-Qaeda guys with a textbook of food processing and a commercial freeze-dryer that’s supposed to make powdered milk succeed where the huge Soviet biological weapons program failed?” he said. “In the real world, there are no known well-trained al-Qaeda scientists,” Leitenberg said in an interview. Prior to the Sept. 11 attacks, al-Qaeda had been aided by a microbiologist with a doctorate who supplied literature on biological weapons, though not smallpox, Leitenberg said. That person, however, “was unwilling to himself do any laboratory work for them,” has since been arrested, he said. In addition, “few pieces of standard equipment obtained by the group in Afghanistan were rudimentary in the extreme,” Leitenberg said. Declassified documents, obtained by U.S. military forces in Afghanistan in November 2001, suggest no al-Qaeda capability for culturing viruses, he wrote.  Obtaining smallpox seed from a Soviet facility also would not be as easy as the exercise suggests, he wrote. “When the Iranian government made overtures to [the Russian laboratory] Vector scientists offering very generous payment to come and work and/or teach in Iran in the years around 1994, they failed to convince a single member of the institute to come to Iran,” he wrote.  “These facilities are in better shape now than they were 10 years ago, both in their financial circumstances and in their biosecurity arrangements.  At a first approximation, it therefore seems very highly unlikely that an al-Qaeda-affiliated group would be able to obtain a smallpox sample from Vector.”  Regarding the attack’s dispersion method, the fire extinguisher-size device described in the scenario would not be expected to effectively spray the biological agent, Furmanski said. “The kinds of aerosol generators that do are laboratory instruments, are stationary and have to be level, they’re just not a backpack kind of thing.” Furmanski questioned whether Islamic terrorists would even want to use smallpox, given the potential for it to spread more rapidly in the developing world than in Western nations that hold significant vaccine stockpiles. He noted that the terrorists in the scenario also possessed anthrax, yet they chose to use smallpox which is potentially “the most dangerous one for blowback.” “What [the organizers] don’t touch on is what this would do to the Islamic world, to the putative homeland of these terrorists who have no vaccine, crowded conditions, not very good public health. They would be wiped out.  It would be a catastrophe,” he said. Technological Progress Cited O’Toole and others from the Center for Biosecurity defended the scenario in e-mailed rebuttals to Leitenberg and Furmanski’s critiques. O’Toole argued that technological progress has made the challenge of producing dry smallpox easier. “What the U.S. could not do in 1970 is now very routine — e.g. make dry powdered virus. The [recipe] for doing this for measles vaccine, is published and technique for drying [smallpox] was in [an] open U.S. patent before 9/11,” she wrote. Center Deputy Director Thomas Inglesby added that the battery-powered sprayer assumed in the exercise was possible, writing that the Japanese terror cult Aum Shinrikyo had one in the early 1990s.  “The technologies of bio-aerosol production (for entirely beneficent purposes) have advanced dramatically since 1969. There are now international biotech and agricultural industries solely dedicated to continued improvement in aerosol delivery technologies, as is evidenced in the continued advances in aerosol drug delivery and large-scale agricultural biopesticide delivery,” he wrote. Center officials in their comments did not directly address the plausibility of an al-Qaeda splinter group wanting or acquiring the smallpox virus, other than to say such occurrences are possible. “Is Dr. Leitenberg saying that he believes it is not possible for al-Q[aeda] members to have obtained smallpox samples from [former Soviet smallpox] facilities or former scientists there or via middlemen? On what grounds would he make such an assertion?” wrote Inglesby. It would be a mistake to rule out the possibility, he said. “No one knew that al-Qaeda operatives could fly commercial airliners before 9/11,” Inglesby wrote, adding, “Al-Qaeda has stated its clear interest in and intent to develop and use biological weapons.” Conclusions Furmanski and Leitenberg said they did not dispute the center’s contention that the details of the scenario were within the realm of possibility. They argued, however, that what was presented as plausible was an improbable, worst-case scenario. “The idea that this is something that could pop up tomorrow, they make it seem much more likely than it is. It’s a worst-case scenario.  It could happen. Somebody could make dried smallpox. Nothing is impossible. But it’s much more likely to come from a national military biological weapons program,” Furmanski said. By overstating the risk and Western vulnerabilities while failing to stress Islamic vulnerabilities, he said, Atlantic Storm may have increased terrorist interest in bioterrorism. “Here they’ve banged the drums and possibly gotten everyone interested in doing this. They should have banged the drums and said this could be a catastrophe for the Islamic world,” he said.  The exercise included such prominent figures as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; Erika Mann, a member of the European Parliament; former Canadian Foreign Minister Barbara McDougall; and former French Health Minister Bernard Kouchner. Back to top

Canada Faces Future Missile Threat, Reports Say Two official reports prepared in the last two years have warned of a growing ballistic missile threat to Canada, the Ottawa Citizen reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 28). The Canadian Defense and Foreign Affairs departments prepared the reports, according to the Citizen.  The Defense Department document from 2004 states that nations are extending the range of their missiles, but that it would be 15 to 20 years before Canada faces a direct threat. The 2003 Foreign Affairs report also warns of a growing risk over the next two decades, the Citizen reported. “Threats can appear where they do not exist today and spread more rapidly than expected,” said the Foreign Affairs Department study. “This is the threat the U.S. (missile shield) is being designed to counter: It is an insurance policy against a risk to come” (David Pugliese, Ottawa Citizen. March 8). Back to top

U.S. State Department Opposes Transfer of U.S.-Israeli Arrow Missile Interceptor to India The U.S. State Department is opposed to the sale of jointly developed U.S.-Israeli Arrow missile interceptors to India, the Press Trust of India reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 27, 2004). The assessment was contained in a report prepared by the U.S. Congressional Research Service.  “Although U.S. Defense Department officials are seen to support the sale as meshing with President [George W.] Bush’s policy of cooperating with friendly countries on missile defense, State Department officials are reported to oppose the transfer,” the report says. “Indications are that a U.S. interest in maintaining strategic balance on the subcontinent, along with U.S. obligations under the Missile Technology Control Regime, may preclude any approval of the ‘Arrow’ sale,” the report adds (Press Trust of India/NewKerala.com, March 8). Back to top

Senate Likely to Confirm Bolton for U.N. Slot, Lawmakers Say; International Analysts React The U.S. Senate will probably confirm President George W. Bush’s pick for the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Undersecretary of State John Bolton, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 8). At least all eight Democrats and one Republican on the 18-member Senate Foreign Relations Committee would have to vote against Bolton to keep his nomination from reaching the full Senate, lawmakers and aides told the Times. The only potential Republican no vote on the committee is believed to be Senator Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), who noted in a statement that Bolton had been an “outspoken critic” of the United Nations, but added that, “I have been assured that he will bring a more balanced approach to his new role.” “I think we want to know how he will approach his responsibilities,” said committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). While Lugar is expected to vote for Bolton, according to Senate aides, he had concerns about the strength of Bolton’s support for U.S. efforts to secure WMD materials in former Soviet states (Weisman/Hulse, New York Times, March 9). Some international analysts criticized Bolton’s nomination. “This is really going to reopen all of the worst suspicions [in Europe] about the Bush administration’s refusal to engage in effective multilateralism,” said Francois Heisbourg, director of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. Others said the choice indicated Bush’s intent to reform the United Nations. “Bolton takes a very dim view of the U.N.,” said Robert McGeehan, an analyst at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. “He, with a lot of others, feels that the degree of corruption is out of control, and that (Secretary General) Kofi Annan is doing very little about it.” Bolton’s nomination indicates that advocates of a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy are gaining influence in the White House, some analysts in the Middle East said. “This is an extremely bad message that Bush has submitted to the neoconservatives,” said Imad Shoueibi, a Syrian political analyst in Damascus. “They should have a more moderate figure representing them at the United Nations, but instead they have one of the most radical.” The United States still needs assistance in stabilizing Iraq, which could force Bolton to work with the United Nations, said Eberhard Sandschneider, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “He will have to cooperate,” he said.  Others cautioned against assuming that Bolton’s nomination meant Bush would not move toward increased multilateralism. “It is important to remember that foreign policy is decided by President Bush and the secretary of state. The U.N. ambassador just puts it into practice,” said Svein Melby, a research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs in Oslo. “If it is a signal about anything, it is that the demands from the United States for reforms at the U.N. are serious because they have sent an ambassador who is critical of the U.N.” (Beth Gardiner, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 8). Back to top       Georgia Implements Plan to Protect Food Supply The state of Georgia is recruiting thousands of people to help protect the U.S. food supply from terrorist attacks and natural disasters, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Dec. 23, 2004). The state’s agroterrorism committee plans to train 3,500 emergency workers, farmer sand veterinarians to identify and respond to agricultural emergencies by June 2006. That would include checking on unusual animal or plant sickness that could be the result of a terrorist attack.   “Any time you have an impact on the food supply, you get a lot of people upset,” said Bill Thomas, an agricultural economist who serves on the committee. “If people have no meat or milk to drink, people are going to get upset. That’s why we need people to respond quickly and effectively” (Elliott Minor, Associated Press/Yahoo!Finance, March 9).   Back to top

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