Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld (left), joined yesterday by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Richard Myers, urged senators at an Appropriations subcommittee hearing to approve a study of “bunker-buster” nuclear weapons (AFP photo/Micah Walter). Study Finds Nuclear Bunker Buster Effective, but With Collateral Damage By Marina Malenic Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — An earth-penetrating nuclear weapon that detonates underground could destroy chemical or biological agents contained in deeply buried facilities, but could also cause significant fatalities in the surrounding area, says a new report from the National Research Council (see GSN, March 3)...Full Story

United States Identifies State Sponsors of Terrorism, Cites WMD Concern in New Report By Marina Malenic Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Syria continue to provide terrorists with secure locations and support in fund raising, weapons acquisition and recruiting, the State Department said yesterday in its Country Reports on Terrorism for 2004 (see GSN, April 27)...Full Story

IAEA Board Delays Vote on ElBaradei The International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors yesterday delayed a vote on whether Mohammed ElBaradei will remain director general, despite indications that only the United States opposes his reappointment to a third term, the Associated Press (see GSN, April 26)...Full Story

	Thursday, April 28, 2005

United States Identifies State Sponsors of Terrorism, Cites WMD Concern in New Report By Marina Malenic Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Syria continue to provide terrorists with secure locations and support in fund raising, weapons acquisition and recruiting, the State Department said yesterday in its Country Reports on Terrorism for 2004 (see GSN, April 27). “More worrisome is that these countries also have the capabilities to manufacture weapons of mass destruction and other destabilizing technologies that could fall into the hands of terrorists,” the report says. “State sponsors of terrorism impede the efforts of the United States and the international community to fight terrorism,” the report says.  “These countries provide a critical foundation for terrorist groups.” Libya and Sudan remain on the list of state sponsors, but have shown significant cooperation against terrorism, according to the report, while Iraq as of October is no longer designated as a sponsor of terrorist activity. Al-Qaeda remained the primary terrorist threat to the United States last year, according to the report. While the United States has made headway in reducing the group’s overall capabilities and membership, al-Qaeda continued to disperse its ideology among smaller, localized groups. “There is a declining role for a significantly degraded al-Qaeda and a rising role for groups inspired by al-Qaeda,” State Department counsel Philip Zelikow said yesterday in a briefing on the report. Meanwhile, the newly created National Counterterrorism Center separately issued a set of international terror incident statistics for 2004. There were 651 significant international terrorist attacks in which 9,321 people were killed, wounded or taken hostage. One percent of the victims were U.S. citizens, according to the center’s data. The attacks resulted in 1,907 deaths. This year’s numbers for total significant terrorism incidents are a more than three-fold increase over last year’s totals. The data in that report were revised after the Bush administration was charged with underreporting the number of attacks (see GSN, June 23, 2004). The agency is also compiling new data based on what officials said is a more precise methodology. Those statistics are expected to be released in June. “It is going to be a much more comprehensive data set,” said John Brennan, the agency’s interim director, at yesterday’s briefing Until this year, the State Department has included such data in its annual Patterns of Global Terrorism, based on a congressionally established definition of terrorism. The State Department document was renamed Country Reports this year. Back to top

Bolton Will Make it Through Committee, Lugar Says Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar said yesterday he expects the panel to back the nomination of Undersecretary of State John Bolton as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (see GSN, April 27). “We will have a vote that I believe will be favorable, and the committee will report the nomination to the [Senate] floor,” said Lugar (R-Ind.). “I’m not certain that I will know the heart of hearts of each member sitting there on May the 12th,” he added. “I hope that I will have a good idea, but each will have to make up his or her mind.” Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) is preparing contingency plans to have the Senate vote on Bolton even if the committee fails to recommend his nomination, the Associated Press reported. “If that happens, then what’s the point of having a committee?,” said committee member Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) (Liz Sidoti, Associated Press/SFGate.com, April 27). Meanwhile, the National Security Agency has yet to respond to Democrats’ request for details on 10 reported instances in which Bolton requested names of U.S. officials mentioned or involved in conversations recorded by the intelligence agency, the Washington Post reported (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, April 28). Back to top

Study Finds Nuclear Bunker Buster Effective, but With Collateral Damage By Marina Malenic Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — An earth-penetrating nuclear weapon that detonates underground could destroy chemical or biological agents contained in deeply buried facilities, but could also cause significant fatalities in the surrounding area, says a new report from the National Research Council (see GSN, March 3). Many countries use underground facilities to conceal and protect military personnel, weapons and equipment. Some 10,000 “hard and deeply buried targets” exist in the territory of potential adversaries, according to U.S. Defense Department estimates. Most such facilities are beyond the reach of conventional weapons, according to the report, and could only be destroyed by nuclear weapons. An earth-penetrating nuclear weapon would also provide an alternative to a high-yield, above-ground nuclear blast, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday at a hearing on Capitol Hill where he sought $8.5 million in fiscal 2006 funding, split between the Energy and Defense department budgets, for research on the “bunker buster” weapon. “There are some 70 countries that are currently pursuing underground programs,” he said. “So, the question comes, what ought our country to do about that, or do we want to think about … the idea of having a capability of dealing with that? … The only thing we have is very large, very dirty, big nuclear weapons. So, the choice is, do we want to have nothing and only a large, dirty nuclear weapon, or would we rather have something in-between,” he said. Last year, Congress rejected the Bush administration’s request to fund the study after a key Republican House member questioned the need for developing a new nuclear weapon (see GSN, Feb. 4). Apart from the BLU-118B thermobaric bomb — a non-nuclear bomb that can produces high pressure and heat — conventional weapons are unlikely to be effective in destroying buried stocks of chemical or biological agents, the report says.  The higher radiation doses and much higher temperatures associated with a nuclear detonation would likely be more effective in destroying chemical or biological materials. That holds true, though, only if the warhead detonates in the chamber where the agents are stored, according to the report. An earth-penetrating weapon is designed to detonate underground after surviving impact and penetration. Using a lower-yield nuclear weapon that explodes underground would produce two to 10 times fewer civilian casualties than would a surface nuclear explosion, the study found. An earth-penetrating nuclear weapon is not, however, expected to dig deep enough to fully contain a blast. Thousands to more than 1 million people could die following a strike on a heavily populated urban area, depending on the weapon’s nuclear yield, the report states. Deaths in a less-populated area could range from hundreds to thousands. “You can use a much smaller weapon if you use an earth penetrator, maybe 20 times smaller, but you will kill a lot of people, because it puts out a huge amount of radioactive debris,” said John Ahearne, chairman of the committee that produced the report, according to the Washington Post. Fatalities could be further reduced if military commanders issued warnings and allowed civilians to evacuate. Wind conditions could also be evaluated, allowing military commanders to choose conditions likely to minimize civilians’ exposure to fallout, according to the study. Back to top       IAEA Board Delays Vote on ElBaradei The International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors yesterday delayed a vote on whether Mohammed ElBaradei will remain director general, despite indications that only the United States opposes his reappointment to a third term, the Associated Press (see GSN, April 26). All but one of the board’s 35 member nations support keeping ElBaradei on the job for another four years, said one diplomat. Delegates from Russia and China offered strong support for his leadership at this week’s meeting, with the Russian representative calling for reappointment “the sooner, the better.” “The United States is the only country against ElBaradei,” a diplomat told Reuters. The board ultimately deferred a decision, now expected at its June meeting, to allow for more time to develop a consensus with the United States, AP reported (Andrea Dudikova, Associated Press/ABC News, April 28). The United States supported the delay to give it more time to persuade 12 countries to vote against ElBaradei and block his reappointment, diplomats told Reuters. U.S. officials also want to see what happens with the nomination of Undersecretary of State John Bolton, who has pressed for ElBaradei’s ouster, as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. “The U.S. doesn’t want a vote until it’s clear what happens with Bolton,” said a diplomat on the IAEA board (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, April 27). Back to top       Iran Warns of Possible End to Nuclear Talks A lack of progress in nuclear talks set to begin tomorrow with France, Germany and the United Kingdom could lead Iran to withdraw entirely from the negotiations, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 27). “The negotiations will go on if there is progress at [tomorrow’s] meeting,” said Ali Agha-Mohammadi, a spokesman for the Supreme National Security Council. “But if the Iranian delegation does not see any progress then the process will change radically,” he said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, April 28). Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri said yesterday that his country supports the European Union’s diplomatic effort with Iran, AP reported (Constant Brand, Associated Press, April 27). U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said today that he thought U.S. military action against Iran was unlikely to occur, the Associated Press reported. “I don’t think that is in the cards,” he said (Rajesh Mahapatra, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, April 28). Meanwhile, An Israeli official said today that Russia appeared increasingly careful regarding the level of assistance it is offering Iran with its nuclear development, AFP reported. “Russia has demonstrated more caution recently about anything to do with Iran’s efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction,” said Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. “The Russians realize the Iranians are hiding part of their nuclear projects from them, which risk endangering their strategic interests, but also some of their southern territory,” said an official in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s office. “Moscow has recently moved towards the European and American positions in trying to reign in the Iranians, but it is not enough,” added the official (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, April 28). Elsewhere, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi is scheduled to hold nuclear talks today with Dutch officials, AP reported. The Netherlands is expected to discuss incentives aimed at persuading Tehran to relinquish its uranium enrichment plans (Associated Press, April 28). Back to top       Minuteman 3 Missile Test Fails The scheduled test of an unarmed U.S. Minuteman 3 ICBM failed early yesterday morning, the Lompoc Record reported (see GSN, April 4). It was not immediately known why the missile did not leave its silo at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, according to a press release. The failed test was the second this year. Further investigation is expected, according to the Record (Lompoc Record, April 27). Back to top

Bioterrorists Could Mail Smallpox Virus, Experts Say History indicates that the smallpox virus could be sent through the mail as a bioterror device, United Press International reported Tuesday (see GSN, March 9). Infected letters are believed to have caused separate smallpox outbreaks in 1901 in the United States and United Kingdom, Charles Ambrose, a microbiologist at the University of Kentucky School of Medicine, wrote in an article in the May issue of the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases. One of the virus-carrying letters had traveled by boat from the United States to England, indicating its ability to survive a long trip. The main roadblock to a smallpox mail attack would be obtaining the virus itself, experts told UPI. Only the United States and Russia are known officially to possess smallpox samples, though fears exist that other nations might have obtained the virus. “If smallpox were available, then it would be possible to transmit it through the mail,” Bill Kournikakis, of Canada’s Chemical Biological Defense Section, told UPI. “Smallpox was well known for its virulence, contagiousness and stability (and) was able to survive for almost a year at room temperature in exudates or crusts from smallpox patients,” he said. “It would most likely survive the postal system as well.” A spokesman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention played down the threat. “It would be really, really, really difficult” to spread smallpox by mail, said spokesman Von Roebuck. D.A. Henderson, who directed the World Health Organization program to eradicate smallpox, said there is “no question” the virus could be spread intentionally by mail. He said, however, that the trouble in obtaining samples, the know-how needed to work with them and the risk that terrorist might infect themselves makes such an event less likely to occur than an anthrax mailing, UPI reported (Steve Mitchell, United Press International, April 26). Back to top       New British Anthrax Vaccine Could Stop Side Effects A British anthrax vaccine made from a pure protein found in the bacterium could prevent people from suffering side effects from the inoculation, the London Evening Standard reported today (see GSN, April 21). Side effects such as fatal blood clots could be the result of an impurity in current vaccines, which are produced from a filtered version of the pathogen, experts have said. The new vaccine’s manufacturer, Avencia, is seeking 400 volunteers for vaccine trials that will last 19 months. “Recruitment is going very well,” said Avencia medical director Tony Lockett. “At no point will volunteers be exposed to anthrax bacteria — this is a pure protein.” If trials are successful, Avencia hopes to begin mass production of the vaccine within five years, according to the Standard (Mark Prigg, Evening Standard/ThisIsLondon, April 28). Back to top

Allard Demands DOD Pledge on Pueblo CW Disposal Site U.S. Senator Wayne Allard (R-Colo.) said yesterday that he might delay Senate approval of a Defense Department official until he gets “straight answers” regarding the department’s commitment to build the planned Colorado chemical weapons neutralization facility (see GSN, April 20). Allard is scheduled to meet today with Ken Kreig, the Pentagon’s choice to replace Michael Wynne as defense undersecretary for acquisitions and logistics. Allard sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, which conducted a hearing on Kreig’s nomination, the Associated Press reported. The appointment has not yet been scheduled for consideration by the full Senate. “I am not convinced this nomination should go forward until I get some straight answers from the department,” Allard said in a statement. “Specifically, I want to hear about his commitment to use neutralization technology to destroy the chemical weapons at Pueblo, and to not transporting the weapons to a different site for destruction.” The Pentagon has announced plans to release $370 million for preparation and construction of neutralization facilities at Pueblo and Blue Grass, Ky. Defense officials have set the allowable budget for Pueblo alone at $1.7 billion. “I … want assurances that the department will fully fund this project,” Allard said (Associated Press, April 27). Back to top       Anniston Incinerator Begins Destroying 155 mm Shells The Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Alabama yesterday began destroying 155 mm shells filled with the nerve agent sarin (see GSN, April 25). Weapons disposal was halted briefly this week as workers finished eliminating 8-inch projectiles containing sarin and reconfigured equipment to handle the smaller shells. Elimination of the 155 mm projectiles is expected to take two months, project manager Timothy Garrett said in a press release. “Our mission is to continue the safe processing we started with the M-55 rockets and the 8-inch projectiles and carry that forward to the 155 mm projectiles and beyond,” Garrett said. “We will follow the same, safe path that we established in our first campaigns, that being a slow and methodical start-up rate that ensures and reinforces the safety of the work force, our community and our environment” (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, April 27). Back to top       Niue Signs Chemical Weapons Convention Niue last week signed the Chemical Weapons Convention, according to a statement released yesterday by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (see GSN, Oct. 22, 2004). The South Pacific island will become the 168th party to the convention on May 21, the organization announced (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons release, April 27).   Back to top

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