Activists protest the nomination of John Bolton as U.N. ambassador earlier this month. U.S. officials said that international cooperation has improved since Bolton left the State Department, and that chances are good for an agreement on disposal of U.S. and Russian plutonium (Getty Images/Brendan Smialowski). Bolton’s Exit From State Dept. Paves Way for Russian, U.S. Plutonium Disposal, Officials Say U.S negotiators said the absence of former Undersecretary of State John Bolton has paved the way for an agreement between Russia and the United States to dispose of enough plutonium for 8,000 nuclear weapons, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, June 17). The deal, which is expected to be announced next month at the Group of Eight conference in Scotland, results from productive negotiations between the two countries following Bolton’s departure from the State Department, U.S. officials and analysts said...Full Story

North Korean Leader Demands “Respect” Before Committing to New Round of Nuclear Talks Pyongyang is willing to resume multilateral talks on its nuclear program as early as next month if Washington treats it with “respect,” South Korean officials quoted North Korean leader Kim Jong Il as saying last week (see GSN, June 17)...Full Story

Memos Show British Concerned That United States Abused Intelligence to Justify Iraq War Memos show a high-ranking British official in 2002 questioned the case made by the United States for war against Iraq, the Associated Press reported Saturday (see GSN, June 17)...Full Story

	Monday, June 20, 2005

U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Remain Vulnerable to Terrorist Attack, Some Experts Say Defenses at U.S. nuclear power plants remain inadequate to prevent an attack by a force the size of the one al-Qaeda put together on Sept. 11, 2001, experts said in a Time magazine article published today (see GSN, June 13). Security personnel at the plants are only required to train to repel a force far smaller than the 19 men involved in the Sept. 11 attacks. Time estimated there are 80 guards at each reactor, spread across four shifts of 20 each. In a terrorist strike, they could face a highly committed, better-armed force with no concern about its members’ lives. “These guys are coming in to die. They know they’re not leaving,” said one nuclear plant guard. “Our training has increased, but I don’t think it’s increased enough to deal with that.” “Everyone feels that way,” according to a guard at another facility. “It’s a consensus of opinion.” Security efforts also tend to stop at nuclear plant doors, with few fail-safe mechanisms built into control rooms, according to physicist Kenneth Bergeron, a former nuclear-reactor safety researcher at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico. “A knowledgeable terrorist inside a control room can cause a meltdown in fairly short order,” said nuclear-safety expert Paul Blanch. The Union of Concerned Scientists said that a meltdown at the Indian Point nuclear power plant, 35 miles away from New York City, could emit radiation killing up to 44,000 people within a year and cause up to 518,000 cancer deaths. The Nuclear Energy Institute puts the death toll from an attack at about 100, with one senior official saying the chances of such an event are “so incredibly low it is not credible,” according to Time. U.S. officials have said that Sept. 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed told investigators that he initially planned to have some of the suicide pilots fly into nuclear power plants. Mohammad Atta, the pilot of the first aircraft to strike the World Trade Center, “had considered targeting a nuclear facility he had seen during familiarization flights near New York,” according to the final Sept. 11 commission report. At the start of the Iraq war in 2003, National Guard troops were sent to the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station near Phoenix, Ariz., following indications that Iraqi terrorist sleeper cells planned to attack the facility. Studies commissioned by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, however, have concluded that the concrete-and-steel containment surrounding nuclear plants would withstand an airplane hit. Some experts, including a recent National Academy of Sciences panel, disagree. Other experts have said that saboteurs would have a difficult time causing a nuclear meltdown.  “It would require a relatively large number of highly experienced experts in nuclear technology to be able to intentionally provoke a nuclear accident from within a reactor,” said Georges Le Guelte, a former French representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency and nuclear security adviser to the Institute of International and Strategic Relations. In addition, the Energy Department has significantly improved its security standards since Sept. 11, said Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Nils Diaz. Such improvements include new physical barriers, vehicle checkpoints set further from plants and improved coordination with local and military authorities. “Any terrorist who looks at one of these facilities is going to say, ‘This is a hardened target, and I’m not going to have any confidence that I am going to be successful [attacking it],’” said Diaz. Senate minority leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has nevertheless pressed for further security improvements. One measure he sponsored would have required nuclear facilities to be able to defend themselves against a Sept. 11-size force, and another would have created a federal Nuclear Security Force. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry representatives, however, helped to defeat the legislation by arguing that a federalized force would undermine the current close cooperation between plant operators and guards. “That would actually create almost a barrier between security and safety,” said Diaz (Thompson/Crumley, Time, June 20). Back to top

Memos Show British Concerned That United States Abused Intelligence to Justify Iraq War Memos show a high-ranking British official in 2002 questioned the case made by the United States for war against Iraq, the Associated Press reported Saturday (see GSN, June 17). Peter Ricketts, political director of Britain’s Foreign Office, said that the U.S. claim that a link existed between al-Qaeda and Iraq was weak. Ricketts’ thoughts were captured in one of the Downing Street memos, 2002 British documents that critics say show the Bush administration had committed to war against Iraq months before the invasion, according to the AP. “U.S. scrambling to establish a link between Iraq and al-Qaeda is so far frankly unconvincing,” wrote Ricketts in one memo.   “For Iraq, ‘regime change’ does not stack up. It sounds like a grudge between Bush and Saddam.” The documents also indicate that British Prime Minister Tony Blair was concerned about Iraq’s rumored WMD capabilities and committed to allying with the United States despite concerns that a pre-emptive attack would violate international law. “The truth is that what has changed is not the pace of Saddam Hussein's WMD programs, but our tolerance of them post-11 September," Blair wrote to Foreign Secretary Jack Straw in March 2002. Other memos show that U.S. President George W. Bush was aware of the difficulty Blair was having in rallying popular support for the war in the United Kingdom. “It is clear that Bush is grateful for your (Blair's) support and has registered that you are getting flak. I said that you would not budge in your support for regime change but you had to manage a press, a Parliament and a public opinion that was very different than anything in the states,” wrote Blair’s former chief foreign policy adviser David Manning following a meeting with then-national security adviser Condoleezza Rice. “And you would not budge either in your insistence that, if we pursued regime change, it must be very carefully done and produce the right result. Failure was not an option.” Manning added that Rice’s “enthusiasm for regime change is undimmed,” but that Rice appreciated the risks associated with a pre-emptive war. Ricketts, in a March 2002 memo to Straw, outlined a strategy on how to win popular support for the conflict. “We have to be convincing that: the threat is so serious/imminent that it is worth sending our troops to die for; it is qualitatively different from the threat posed by other proliferators who are closer to achieving nuclear capability (including Iran),” Ricketts wrote.   Before the war began, Blair released a memo stating that Iraq could launch a chemical or biological attack within 45 minutes. A British expert on Iraq said the memos only confirm what post-war investigations have uncovered. “The documents show what official inquiries in Britain already have, that the case of weapons of mass destruction was based on thin intelligence and was used to inflate the evidence to the level of mendacity,” said Toby Dodge of Queen Mary College. “In going to war with Bush, Blair defended the special relationship between the two countries, like other British leaders have. But he knew he was taking a huge political risk at home. He knew the war's legality was questionable and its unpopularity was never in doubt” (Thomas Wagner, Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, June 18). Meanwhile, the U.S. Defense Department is trying to determine whether to free former Iraqi weapons scientists, Newsweek reported today (see GSN, March 4). Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said “appropriate leadership” in Washington is working with the Pentagon and other agencies as well as the Iraqi government on the possible release of former scientists. Officials said the Pentagon is taking the lead in making the determination, including whether to charge any of the scientists with war crimes. Former U.N. weapons inspector David Albright said he heard recent reports that Amer al-Saadi, prewar Iraq’s liaison with weapons inspectors, had been released. A U.S. official denied the report.  Rumors are also circulating that bioweapons scientist Rihab Taha — also known as “Dr. Germ” — is being considered for released (Mark Hosenball, Newsweek, June 20). Back to top

Bolton’s Exit from State Dept. Paves Way for Russian, U.S. Plutonium Disposal, Officials Say U.S negotiators said the absence of former Undersecretary of State John Bolton has paved the way for an agreement between Russia and the United States to dispose of enough plutonium for 8,000 nuclear weapons, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, June 17). The deal, which is expected to be announced next month at the Group of Eight conference in Scotland, results from productive negotiations between the two countries following Bolton’s departure from the State Department, U.S. officials and analysts said. The program had been delayed since 2003 over White House demands that U.S. contractors be shielded from liability for accidents at disposal sites they help build in Russia. Since Bolton left the department after being nominated as U.N. ambassador, the United States has also dropped its opposition to Mohamed ElBaradei remaining chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency and has supported European incentives for Iran to drop its nuclear ambitions, the Post reported. “Throughout his career in the first Bush administration, he was always playing the stopper role for a lot of different issues and even when there was obvious interest by the president in moving things forward, Bolton often found ways of stopping things by tying the interagency process in knots,” said former Clinton administration official Rose Gottemoeller. “That’s the situation we’re seeing dissipate now.” “It’s less a question of these decisions being taken because John was no longer in the policy loop,” said Robert Einhorn, a former long-time State Department nonproliferation official. “It’s that John was no longer in the Washington-based policy-making loop because the second Bush administration wants to adopt a different approach to dealing with the rest of the world.” However, one expert was more cautious in his assessment of the post-Bolton State Department. “He was a lightning rod because of his strong and blunt statements,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “But this Bush administration is not going to become the Adlai Stevenson administration just because John Bolton has left the State Department” (Peter Barker and Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, June 20). Back to top       North Korean Leader Demands “Respect” Before Committing to New Round of Nuclear Talks Pyongyang is willing to resume multilateral talks on its nuclear program as early as next month if Washington treats it with “respect,” South Korean officials quoted North Korean leader Kim Jong Il as saying last week (see GSN, June 17). “Kim … said if the United States firmly recognizes North Korea as a partner and respects it, North Korea can return to six-party talks, even in July,” South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, who met with Kim last week in Pyongyang, said after returning Friday to Seoul. Kim also said North Korea would rejoin the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and open the door to international inspectors if the dispute is resolved, according to Chung. “If the regime's security is guaranteed, there is no reason to possess a single nuclear weapon,” Chung quoted Kim as saying, the New York Times reported (Norimitsu Onishi, New York Times, June 18). Kim said he would also give up his arsenal of ballistic missiles if relations with Washington were repaired, Agence France-Presse reported today. “Kim told me that if North Korea and the United States establish ties and become allies, he would destroy all long-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles,” Chung was quoted by an unnamed official as saying today, according to the Yonhap news agency (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, June 20). “The meeting made a positive breakthrough in inter-Korea relationships,” South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said through a spokesman of the talks between Kim and Chung. “It offered a good opportunity for us to play a major role in resolving the North’s nuclear problems and we will put our diplomatic efforts on keeping up the momentum,” the spokesman said, according to Reuters (Reuters, June 19). Washington, meanwhile, said Friday that North Korea should act on Kim’s promises, AFP reported. “Statements are one thing, real action is another,” said one State Department official. “Until there is a little bit more meat to the bones, we are not going to start jumping up and down and waving arms,” the official said, adding that Washington would wait for “signs from the Chinese that there is really something in the works” (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, June 17). Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill urged Pyongyang to set a date for a new round of talks, the Associated Press reported. “We want to have a date and we hope that this will happen in July,” Hill said (Burt Herman, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 20). South Korean envoys are scheduled to go to Washington, Moscow and Beijing for consultations on a possible resumption of talks, the Associated Press reported yesterday (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 19). Some analysts said North Korea was extending an olive branch to the United States and was likely to resume talks with a bit more prompting from Washington, AFP reported. “The ball is now in the U.S. court. ... If the United States gives it a friendly nudge, it (North Korea) will immediately come back to the dialogue table,” said Chon Hun-joon of the Korean Institute for National Unification. “North Korea gives a top priority to improving ties with Washington, and it knows very well that for this purpose it should not play the nuclear card beyond certain limits,” he said. “[Kim Jong Il] sent the ball back into the U.S. court by reaffirming the principle that the Korean Peninsula should be free of nuclear weapons and made positive remarks on the issue of verification,” said Kim Sung-han of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (Park Chan-kyong, Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, June 19). Back to top       Chinese Submarine Test-Fires Ballistic Missile China on Thursday test-fired a new ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine in the Pacific Ocean off Qingdao on the Shandong Peninsula, the Daily Yomiuri reported (see GSN, March 11). The missile flew several thousand kilometers before landing in a desert. It was likely a Ju Lang 2, a modified version of the Dong Feng 31 ICBM with a range of roughly 8,000 kilometers, Japanese government sources said Friday. The test could be seen as a warning to the United States against China’s territorial dispute with Taiwan, the Yomiuri reported.  U.S. officials believe China could have 100 nuclear warheads aimed at the United States on Dong Feng 31 missiles by 2015 (Daily Yomiuri, June 18). Back to top       Presidential Election Will Not Alter Tehran’s Nuclear Policy, Senior Iranian Official Says The result of Iran’s presidential election will not change the country’s nuclear policy, a top Iranian official said Friday (see GSN, June 17). “Decision-making depends on a consensus of all officials, and the nuclear issue is a national issue based on the country’s national interest,” top national security official and nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani told the student news agency ISNA. “We want to carry on enrichment without worrying others,” he said, adding that whoever is elected “would not have determining influence on this stance” (Agence France-Presse/Khaleej Times, June 17). Former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is slated to face Tehran’s hard-line mayor, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, who has the backing of the religious establishment and the military, in a runoff election, the Associated Press reported. Rafsanjani received 6.1 million votes, 21 percent of ballots cast during Friday’s national election, while Ahmedinejad received 5.7 million votes, 19.5 percent of votes, according to AP (Kathy Gannon, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 18). Back to top       Old Russian ICBM Reincarnated as Space Launcher A U.S. company is planning to use a former Russian strategic missile scrapped under an arms-reduction treaty as a spacecraft launcher tomorrow, the Wall Street Journal Europe reported Friday (see GSN, May 20). The rocket is expected to launch the unmanned Cosmos 1 solar sail out of a Russian nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea, according to the Journal. The decommissioned missile, in addition to offering the spacecraft a reliable means of transportation, was a relative bargain, according to Jim Cantrell, president of the space consulting firm Strategic Space Development. “We got a helluva deal,” Cantrell said (Sharon Begley, Wall Street Journal Europe, June 17). Back to top       U.S. Air Force Ends Search for Lost Nuke The search for a nuclear bomb accidentally dropped off the Georgia coast by a U.S. bomber in 1958 has come up empty, the Air Force said Friday (see GSN, April 13). The Air Force report also concluded that the 7,600-pound weapon could not detonate and that the search should be abandoned, the Associated Press reported. “The best course of action in this matter is to not continue to search for it and to leave the property in place,” says the report by the Air Force Nuclear Weapons and Counterproliferation Agency. “We still think it’s irretrievably lost. We don’t know where to look for it,” said Billy Mullins, an Air Force nuclear weapons adviser who led the search (Associated Press/USA Today, June 17). Back to top

Wash. State Postal Site to Receive Anthrax Detectors The U.S. Postal Service mail distribution facility in Spokane, Wash., is scheduled to install by the beginning of July equipment that can detect anthrax in mail, the Spokesman Review reported Friday (see GSN, June 14). Four Biohazard Detection System machines are scheduled to be installed at the site, which processes 3.5 million pieces of mail each day. Currently, 152 postal facilities nationwide have the detection systems. By the fall, 287 distribution centers are scheduled to have the equipment, according to Postal Service spokeswoman Teresa Rudkin (Thomas Clouse, Spokesman Review, June 17). Back to top

U.S. Senators Ask Defense Department to Lift Funding Caps for CW Destruction Sites Four U.S. senators have asked Defense Undersecretary Kenneth Krieg to lift cost ceilings for planned chemical weapons disposal sites in Colorado and Kentucky, arguing that outdated cost estimates could jeopardize safety at the facilities and the success of their work, the Associated Press reported Saturday (see GSN, April 20). “The path forward in execution of safe and expeditious disposal of the stockpiles at these two locations is in jeopardy due to this fundamental flaw in the process,” Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Jim Bunning (R-Ky.), Wayne Allard (R-Colo.) and Ken Salazar (D-Colo.) wrote in a letter to Krieg. In 2003, the Defense Department estimated it would cost $2 billion to eliminate chemical weapons stored at Kentucky’s Blue Grass Army Depot and $1.5 billion to destroy munitions at Colorado’s Pueblo Chemical Depot.  As price estimates have increased, the Pentagon has refused to lift the caps, instead asking site managers to cut costs at the facilities, according to AP. McConnell, in an April letter to Krieg’s predecessor, said locking in costs before work began “seems … misguided at best” (Hilary Roxe, Associated Press/WKYT, June 18). Back to top       Newport CW Destruction to Resume this Week Destruction of VX nerve agent is expected to resume this week following a review of the first five weeks of operations at the U.S. Army’s Newport Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Indiana, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, June 13). The scheduled break occurred shortly after 30 gallons of VX and wastewater spilled at the site. Depot management met with workers while disposal was stopped to hear suggestions on how to prevent future spills and improve the destruction process. “The supervisors answered questions and provided information to the workers, and the workers offered suggestions to management,” said Army spokesman Rick Rife. “Those suggestions are being evaluated and some may be implemented.” Rife added that precautions have been taken to prevent additional spills. He said a faulty valve is suspected to have caused the recent leak. “The valves were removed and reassembled,” Rife said. “The valves themselves were not replaced, just the gaskets/diaphragms” (Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, June 20). Meanwhile, workers at the Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Oregon have destroyed 1,530 sarin-filled M55 rockets since destruction resumed on June 9, according to the Hermiston Herald (see GSN, June 10). “Things are going pretty well,” said Adam Russell, spokesman for contractor Washington Group International. “(On Tuesday), we processed 436 rockets. That is the fourth best record day and the fifth time we processed over 400 rockets in a day” (Karen Hutchinson-Talaski, Hermiston Herald, June 17). Back to top

Washington Reportedly Asks Tokyo for $545 Million for Joint Missile Defense Development The United States has reportedly asked Japan to match Washington’s estimated contribution of $545 million to develop a joint missile defense system, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, June 15). Tokyo, however, believes the cost is too high and plans to negotiate for a price cut, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 20). Back to top

Senate Committee OKs $577 Million for Yucca Mountain U.S. Senate appropriators have included $577 million in fiscal 2006 for the national nuclear waste depot in Nevada’s Yucca Mountain, the Associated Press reported Friday (see GSN, May 25). The amount is $74 million less than requested by the Bush administration. The Senate Appropriations Committee allocated the same amount of money for Yucca last year.   Unlike House appropriators, the Senate committee did not include any funds for a temporary waste storage facility while construction at Yucca is completed.   The House allocated $651 million for the Nevada site and set aside $10 million for an interim storage facility, AP reported. The full Senate must still vote on the Yucca funding, after which lawmakers from both houses will meet to produce a compromise bill. “This will just be something we have to discuss in a rational fashion at some point,” said Representative David Hobson (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Energy and Water Development Subcommittee (Associated Press/Las Vegas Sun, June 17).     Back to top

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