U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) released a survey today of nonproliferation experts on the risks of WMD attacks (Getty Images/Mark Wilson). WMD Experts Call for Greater Nonproliferation Efforts, Warn of Possible Attack By David Francis Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Weapons of mass destruction experts are calling for greater international efforts to prevent weapons proliferation, according to a survey released today by U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). A majority of the experts said funding for nonproliferation efforts needs to be increased by half, with a plurality believing these efforts need to be concentrated in Russia (see GSN, June 3)...Full Story

Washington Reportedly Rejected 2002 North Korean Offer to Discuss Nuclear Standoff U.S. President George W. Bush in 2002 rejected an attempt by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to engage the United States directly on Pyongyang’s nuclear program, two U.S. experts said in an article published today (see GSN, June 21)...Full Story

United States Eyes Detectors at Sea, New Monitor Technology in Bid to Foil Nuclear Smuggling By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Placing radiation monitors in cargo containers at sea and deploying new spectroscopic monitors at ports could help the United States overcome the inherent difficulties in detecting illicit nuclear material in transit, experts and officials said yesterday at a House of Representatives hearing (see GSN, June 21)...Full Story

	Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Houses Passes Intelligence Authorization Bill The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday voted 409-16 to approve the fiscal 2006 intelligence authorization bill that includes an estimated $42 billion for the Central Intelligence Agency, FBI counterterrorism units and other federal intelligence agencies (see GSN, Dec. 9, 2004). Lawmakers eliminated language in the bill that would have blocked National Intelligence Director John Negroponte from transferring employees without approval from congressional committees, the Post reported. Representative Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.) said the authorization bill would implement intelligence reorganization legislation passed last year and would “prioritize the programs under the management” of Negroponte (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, June 22). Back to top

WMD Experts Call for Greater Nonproliferation Efforts, Warn of Possible Attack By David Francis Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Weapons of mass destruction experts are calling for greater international efforts to prevent weapons proliferation, according to a survey released today by U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). A majority of the experts said funding for nonproliferation efforts needs to be increased by half, with a plurality believing these efforts need to be concentrated in Russia (see GSN, June 3). Experts are more divided on the likelihood of a WMD attack happening in the next decade, but agree a strike would probably involve a biological, chemical or radiological weapon instead of a nuclear bomb. Lugar, who with former Senator Sam Nunn initiated U.S. cooperative threat reduction programs to secure former Soviet weapons of mass destruction in the early 1990s, received completed surveys from 85 nonproliferation and national security experts. Lugar said the survey results indicate that political leaders need to be more vigilant in securing weapons to ensure they do not end up in terrorists’ hands.  “As part of the global war against terrorism, the United States and its allies must establish a worldwide system of accountability for nuclear, biological and chemical weapons,” Lugar wrote in an introduction to the survey. “In such a system, every nation that has weapons and materials of mass destruction must account for what it has, safely secure what it has, and demonstrate that no other nation or cell will be allowed access. If a nation lacks the means to do this, the international community must provide financial and technical assistance.” Governments and nonproliferation organizations must work to secure Russian weapon stockpiles and dismantle existing weapons, Lugar added (see related GSN story, today). The survey also indicates wide agreement on how many nations would become nuclear powers in coming years. More than 89 percent of respondents said they believed one or two countries would gain nuclear weapons in the next five years. Of the respondents, only four said more than three nuclear powers would emerge, while five said no additional countries would acquire nuclear weapons. When asked if a nuclear attack would occur in the next five years, 26 experts said the risk was greater than 20 percent, while nine believed the risk to be at least 50 percent. Six experts said there was little to no chance of a nuclear attack, while 32 said the chances are less than 5 percent. Looking at a 10-year time period, the respondents were less optimistic. Only one expert said the risk was nonexistent, while four experts put the chances at 100 percent.   Forty-nine experts put the risk between 10 and 50 percent. The majority of experts believe the risk of a biological attack in the next five years to be between 10 and 30 percent, with three seeing no risk and three believing the risk to be above 75 percent. For a 10-year period, 49 experts said the risk of attack was at least 20 percent and 32 said the risk was greater than 40 percent.   Three respondents see the risk as less than 4 percent over 10 years, while four put the risk at greater than 97 percent. Similarly, the majority of respondents put the risk of a chemical attack in the next five years between 10 and 30 percent. However, experts were evenly split over a 10-year period. Three experts said the risk was nonexistent, while three said a chemical attack was inevitable. Fourteen experts said they saw less than a 5 percent chance of a chemical strike, while an equal number saw the risk at greater than 60 percent. The survey found that experts believe a radiological “dirty bomb” attack is most likely. Sixty-eight experts said the chances of such an attack were at least 10 percent in the next five years. When the timeline was extended to 10 years, nearly half of the experts surveyed put the risk at greater than 50 percent. Experts were also asked whether a government or terrorist organization would likely be responsible for a WMD attack in the next 10 years. Nearly 80 percent favored terrorists, with more than three-fourths of experts believing the weapon would be acquired on the black market. The respondents were more evenly split on whether terrorists would acquire a completed weapon or assemble one with weapon-grade materials. Fifty-five percent of experts believe terrorists would create their own bomb after acquiring the proper materials, while the balance said a completed weapon would be obtained. Back to top       U.N. Secretary General to Recommend Reallocating Some Iraq Weapons Inspection Funds U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan plans to recommend that some Iraq weapons inspection funds be reallocated for development assistance to the country, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, June 9). “$200 million will be transferred to the development fund for Iraq,” said Annan spokeswoman Marie Okabe. “The balance of some $20 million will be credited against Iraq’s arrears in its contributions to the U.N. regular budget, peacekeeping operations and tribunal activities” (Agence France-Presse, June 21). Back to top       Frist to Continue Push for Bolton Confirmation Vote Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) said yesterday he would continue to push for a vote on U.N. ambassador nominee John Bolton, hours after he said Bolton could not be confirmed by the Senate, the New York Times reported (see GSN, June 21). “The president made it very clear that he expects an up-or-down vote,” Frist said after an afternoon meeting with President George W. Bush.  “I don’t want that door to close yet,” he said later. “I haven’t been able to move the Democrats,” Frist added. “They’ve got a lock on the filibuster.” However, House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-Texas) called for a recess appointment.   “Yes, [Bush] should,” Delay said when asked whether the president should install Bolton in the U.N. position while Congress closes up shop later this summer.  Senator Trent Lott (R-Miss.) said the White House should turn over documents requested by Democrats to facilitate a vote. “It’s a thin reed they’re standing on,” Lott said of the Bush administration. Spokesman Scott McClellan said the White House would not turn over additional documents to Senate Democrats, the Times reported. Senator John Warner (R-Va.) said he is engaged in “quiet talks” with Democrats on how to move toward a vote on Bolton. Warner recently played an important role in brokering a compromise between Republicans and Democrats over judicial nominees (Stolberg/Stevenson, New York Times, June 22). Back to top

Washington Reportedly Rejected 2002 North Korean Offer to Discuss Nuclear Standoff U.S. President George W. Bush in 2002 rejected an attempt by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to engage the United States directly on Pyongyang’s nuclear program, two U.S. experts said in an article published today (see GSN, June 21). While in Pyongyang in 2002 “we were given a written personal message from Kim to Bush,” former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Donald Gregg and former journalist Don Oberdorfer wrote in today’s Washington Post. Kim’s missive stated that if Washington recognized his country’s sovereignty and provided security guarantees “it is our view that we should be able to find a way to resolve the nuclear issue in compliance with the demands of a new century.” Kim also pledged that “if the United States makes a bold decision, we will respond accordingly,” according to Gregg and Oberdorfer, who said they delivered the message to senior White House and State Department officials. The Bush administration, however, “spurned engagement with North Korea,” wrote Gregg and Oberdorfer. Some weeks later, Pyongyang ejected international nuclear inspectors, withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and started up plutonium separation facilities, Reuters reported (Reuters, June 22). North Korean officials said today they could eliminate their nuclear weapons if the United States treated their country as a friend, the Associated Press reported. “If the United States treats the North in a friendly manner, we will possess not one nuclear weapon,” Kim Chun-shick, a South Korean government spokesman, quoted a North Korean delegation to his country as saying. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, the top South Korean official meeting with the delegation, said today that the two sides had a “productive and constructive discussion” at today’s opening meeting (Ji-Soo Kim, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 22). It is possible that six-party talks on the issue will reconvene next month, Wang Jiarui, head of one of the key channels through which China deals with North Korea, told Reuters today. “The possibility is there,” the Chinese Communist Party official said “As to when (specifically) it can happen still depends on the efforts of all the sides.” “According to our understanding of North Korea from exchanges with them, I think they are still willing to resolve the problem through talks,” he said. The six-party talks remained “the only relatively good framework to solve the existing disputes,” said Wang. “We believe this issue will be resolved in the end because we do not want to see a nondialogue way of resolving the North Korean nuclear problem,” he said (John Ruwitch, Reuters, June 22). Back to top       United States Eyes Detectors at Sea, New Monitor Technology in Bid to Foil Nuclear Smuggling By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Placing radiation monitors in cargo containers at sea and deploying new spectroscopic monitors at ports could help the United States overcome the inherent difficulties in detecting illicit nuclear material in transit, experts and officials said yesterday at a House of Representatives hearing (see GSN, June 21). A recent spate of congressional hearings and expert reports has focused new attention on the obstacles to detecting highly enriched uranium, which emits relatively weak radiation and can be effectively shielded with heavy materials such as lead. Critics say portal monitors deployed in recent years at many U.S. ports are not capable of doing their job. “An abundance of recent evidence suggests that the technology used may not actually meet the needs at hand,” Representative Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) said at the joint hearing of the House Homeland Security Committee subcommittees on WMD defense and emergency preparedness. Difficulties in detecting highly enriched uranium could be mitigated, acting Domestic Nuclear Detection Office head Vayl Oxford said, by resolving a related problem on which critics have also seized: the frequent inability of current detectors to discriminate among radiation sources. “Recent reports have been published in the media questioning the overall capability of currently deployed detection equipment,” Oxford said in a statement delivered to the subcommittees. “Contrary to public perception that detection equipment is not sensitive enough, the actual primary limitation of today’s systems is one of discrimination.” “Specifically,” he said, “today’s equipment lacks a refined capability to rapidly determine the type of radioactive materials it detects. Operationally, this leads to higher nuisance alarm rates — the number of alarms that must be resolved by further inspection.” Monitor operators, Oxford said, are turning down the sensitivity settings on their equipment, reducing the number of false alarms but also the probability of detecting a nuclear or radiological weapon. Use of new “spectroscopic” technology that is better able to discriminate among various radiation-emitting materials, he said, could allow monitors to operate at higher sensitivities. To that end, Oxford’s office is spearheading an Advanced Spectroscopic Portal program, which has awarded contracts for monitor development to 10 firms. The program plans “late this summer,” he said, to test the firms’ prototypes against each other at the new Radiological and Nuclear Countermeasures Test and Evaluation Complex, part of the Nevada Test Site. A “limited number of vendors” will then be chosen to begin production, Oxford said. National Nuclear Security Administration material protection specialist David Huizenga said that “if these tests are successful,” the Energy Department’s Second Line of Defense program hopes to obtain some of the new portal monitors for use “in secondary inspection locations” at ports abroad. The new portal monitors would be about eight times more expensive than present detectors. “The potential improvement in sensitivity may or may not be significant,” Huizenga said at the hearing. “Until these monitors are completed and tested, it is impossible to know for sure.” Both Huizenga and Oxford also highlighted the potential for using radiography in conjunction with portal detectors to foil attempts at smuggling shielded nuclear material. By adding radiographic detection of very dense objects, officials hope that when shielding prevents them from detecting radiation, they can identify the shielding itself because of its density. Homeland Security Associates founder Randall Larsen said in an interview today that such technology driven approaches fundamentally miss the point. He said that given the impossibility of monitoring tens of thousands of miles of U.S. borders, the highest priority should be on securing or detecting materials before they reach the country. “I think we’re still wasting money putting it in seaports,” Larsen said. “We’re dealing with a thinking enemy. Some people want to put three locks on the front door and leave the back door open.” Checks at Sea Could Detect Low-Rate Radiation Several witnesses at the hearing endorsed the idea of placing monitors in cargo containers when they begin traveling to the United States. They said the approach could lead to better detection of materials — including highly enriched uranium — that emit radiation at a low rate and, as a result, take time to detect. The chairman of a recent Defense Science Board task force on detection, Richard Wagner, called such monitoring “a crucially important theme to pursue.” “More attention should be devoted to developing methods of detection at sea,” Wagner said at the hearing. The proposal is one of “several interesting R&D programs exploring new techniques to locate radiological and fissile materials,” American Association for the Advancement of Science security technology specialist Benn Tannenbaum testified. “These detectors take advantage of the 10-day or longer transit time to locate HEU,” Tannenbaum said. “This has the additional feature of allowing the interception of dangerous materials before they enter a U.S. port.” Larsen today questioned the appropriateness of such plans, citing the large volume of sea commerce bound for the United States — “You know how many ships there are that come in, that cross those 95,000 miles of shoreline?” — and what he called the low likelihood that a nuclear or radiological attacker would choose to attack via shipping container. “I’d bring it in a cigar boat,” he said, adding that only “a very cooperative terrorist” would transport a weapon through a monitored port. Larsen said spending would be better directed toward securing materials where they lie and that, if more effective detectors are developed, they should first be deployed abroad in hopes of intercepting smuggled materials before they reach the United States. GAO Points to Poor Coordination In a summary of recent Government Accountability Office reports on nuclear detection, office Natural Resources and Environment Director Gene Aloise told the subcommittees that a long-standing “lack of effective planning and coordination among” the Homeland Security, Defense, State and Energy departments in developing and deploying detectors “has improved” since the recent issuance of a government-wide plan on the subject. Still, coordination problems remain. Among a host of examples, Aloise said the State Department has installed “less sophisticated” monitors in foreign countries than have the Energy and Defense departments; that Homeland Security was not sharing the data its monitors generated with most Energy Department laboratories; and that various federal agencies have tested portal monitors without sharing their results with each other. Aloise added that improper use of monitors both in the United States and elsewhere has hindered effectiveness. Operators of Homeland Security portals in the United States, he said, have allowed vehicles to pass through the monitors at high speeds, turned down detection sensitivity and failed to deploy enough handheld monitors. Turning to efforts abroad, he said half the portal monitors the United States gave one former Soviet country “were never installed or were not operational,” that Bulgaria deployed a U.S.-provided portal “on an unused road that was not expected to be completed for 1 1/2 years” and that State Department radiation detection vans are ineffective in cold weather. Back to top       Russia Has Blocked Two Attempted Break-Ins at Nuclear Facilities Since 1991, Defense Official Says Russia has foiled two attempts by civilians to illegally enter the country’s military nuclear facilities since 1991, a Defense Ministry official said today (see GSN, April 15). The break-in attempts occurred in 2002 and 2003. Each involved a single would-be intruder, said Col. Gen. Igor Valynkin, chief of the ministry’s 12th Main Department, which oversees nuclear weapons. The attempted intrusions “were averted by our mobile units and security at the facilities,” Valynkin said, according to the Associated Press. “Our system is good, it works and it provides nuclear security,” he said. He acknowledged, however, that “there are problems with nuclear security” and that the United States and other countries are assisting with its improvement, AP reported. Valynkin added that Moscow is using domestic and international funding “to strengthen our facilities with security systems. This enables us to take away the guard and fully control it through technical means of protection.” Valynkin said Chechen terrorist groups, who have warned of targeting Russian nuclear plants, remain the primary potential terrorist threat to the facilities. “We get special information from the [Federal Security Service] on terrorism and their plans as to our facilities, and in connection with this we immediately take measures at these facilities,” he said (Steve Gutterman, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 22). Valynkin also said Russia is not considering allowing broader U.S. inspections of Russian nuclear facilities, ITAR-Tass reported. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty does not allow for military nuclear facilities inspections, he said. “These military facilities are not subject to inspections by the U.S. There has been no talk on this subject, and it is not expected in the near time,” Valynkin said (Konovalov/Kuznetsov, ITAR-Tass, June 22). Russia continues to conduct experiments to verify the reliability of nuclear warheads at its Novaya Zemlya test site, Valynkin also said. “The experiments have nothing to do with nuclear testing. No nuclear explosions occur,” he said (Konovalov/Kuznetsov, ITAR-Tass II, June 22). Back to top       European Union Officials say Rafsanjani Victory Crucial in Resolving Iran Nuclear Standoff A victory by former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in this week’s presidential runoff election is the best hope for a diplomatic settlement of the standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program, some European Union officials said today (see GSN, June 17). “It is extremely important to understand that what is at stake is this process concerning dangerous nuclear materials,” said French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy. “In the past, Mr. Rafsanjani has had a slightly more liberal attitude and we have felt in the last several weeks that there has been an easing of tensions between Iran, the European Union and the international community on this subject,” said Douste-Blazy. However, a victory by the hard-line challenger, Tehran Mayor Mahmood Ahmadinejad, could push out moderate officials such as top nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani, Agence France-Presse reported. “We’re holding our breath,” one European diplomat close to the EU-Iran talks told AFP. “It does not mean Rafsanjani will be easy to negotiate with, but at least we know he is more or less committed to the negotiating process. If Ahmadinejad is elected, it will be very uncertain what will happen.” “In any case, our position will stay the same,” said another European diplomat. “If Iran decides to break its nuclear commitments, we are going to the (U.N.) Security Council” (Agence France-Presse, June 22). Back to top       Spacecraft Launched on Decommissioned Ballistic Missile May Be Lost in Space, Russian Officials Say The Cosmos 1 sail-powered spacecraft, launched on a former ballistic missile from a Russian submarine yesterday, may be lost or in an incorrect orbit, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, June 20). A monitoring satellite did not establish contact with the craft, “which signifies its loss,” said Igor Dygalo, a spokesman for the Russian Navy’s Northern Fleet. The problem occurred when the Volna carrier intended to transport the spacecraft into orbit failed, Russia’s Roskosmos space agency announced on its Web site. “Due to the spontaneous failure of the motor of the first part of the Volna missile carrier at the 83rd second of the launch, the unique device ‘solar sail’ did not reach its orbit,” Roskosmos said. The U.S.-based Planetary Society, however, said it had picked up a possible signal from Cosmos 1, though from an incorrect orbit. “We feel reasonably confident that what we saw was a real signal. ... What this means is that we are probably in orbit, but it’s not the orbit that we thought it was,” the organization, which is overseeing the energy propulsion research project, announced on its Web site (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 22). “Good news,” Bruce Murray, a co-founder of the Planetary Society, said late yesterday. “We are very likely in orbit. ... We seem to have a live spacecraft.” Signals appear to have been detected by tracking stations on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, Majuro in the Marshall Islands and at Panska Ves, Czech Republic, the Associated Press reported (John Antczak, Associated Press/Los Angeles Daily News, June 22). Back to top

Iowa Postal Sites Begin Receiving Anthrax Detectors U.S. Postal Service mail processing facilities throughout Iowa have begun installing anthrax detection systems, the Quad-City Times reported today (see GSN, June 20). “Unfortunate as it is, we have to deal with this type of reality. It is a reality,” said Postal Service spokesman Richard Watkins. The Des Moines processing center installed Biohazard Detection Systems earlier this month. Facilities in the Quad-Cities, Sioux City, Waterloo and Cedar Rapids are expected to soon receive the system. “The nation's mail system is as safe as we can make it,” Watkins said (Todd Dorman, Quad-City Times, June 22). Back to top

New Zealand Fire Sparks Mustard Gas Scare Firefighters in New Zealand contained a fire that could have produced mustard gas, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 17, 2004). A fire in a milk-producing factory town of Takaka threatened to ignite chemical silos containing caustic soda and sulfuric acid. New Zealand fire official Rob Allan said these chemicals combined in fire would produce the agent. Residents were temporarily evacuated as a precaution, AP reported. A spokesman for Fonterra Group, which operates the factory, said the facility was closed at the time. The cause of the fire is unclear (Associated Press/Yahoo News, June 21).  Back to top       U.S. Army Requires Training Before VX Destruction Can Resume at Newport CW Disposal Site The U.S. Army is requiring contract workers at the Newport Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Indiana to complete training on lessons learned from a recent spill of VX nerve agent, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, June 20). The training of workers for contractor Parsons Technology must be completed before destruction could resume after a June 10 spill of VX and other materials halted operations, said Army site manager Jeff Brubaker. “It’s unfortunate that we have a small spill, but the good news is the plant systems reacted as designed,” Brubaker said. “I’m very happy with the performance, with the plant itself and with this work force.” Brubaker did not specify when the training would be complete, but said, “The restart will be very slow and deliberate” (Associated Press/Indianapolis Star, June 22). Back to top

Missile Nonproliferation Group Visits Pakistan A delegation from the Missile Technology Control Regime has held talks with officials in Pakistan, the Indian Express reported yesterday (see GSN, March 31). The regime is an informal group of nations that agree to limit their exports of ballistic missiles and related technology. The talks were part of an outreach effort to countries with ballistic missile programs, said Foreign Office spokesman Jalil Abbas Jilani (Indian Express, June 21).     Back to top

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