South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young (left) discusses strategy for nuclear negotiations with Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung (center, sitting) yesterday in Seoul. Chung said yesterday that South Korea is willing to provide North Korea with electricity if Pyongyang agrees to disarm (Getty Imates/Jung Yeon-je). North Korea Reportedly Restarts Work on Two Reactors A North Korean nuclear reactor project could be completed by next year, and any military strike against the installation would result in “all-out war,” senior North Korean officials told a visiting U.S. newspaper columnist (see GSN, July 11). North Korean Foreign Ministry official Li Gun said the 50-megawatt reactor would be “completed this year or next,” Nicholas Kristof wrote in today’s New York Times...Full Story

U.S. Health, Homeland Security Officials Defend Interagency Countermeasure Cooperation By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Homeland Security and Health and Human Services departments are cooperating well and moving as quickly as they can in efforts to boost the nation’s WMD countermeasure stockpile, officials from the two agencies said today in response to legislators’ concerns (see GSN, June 17)...Full Story

Book Offers More Careful View on Restricted Weapons By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Drawing lessons from mistaken conclusions about alleged prewar Iraqi arms, a newly revised book by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace aims to offer a more precise, better-supported assessment of global chemical, biological and nuclear arms capabilities (see GSN, Jan. 25)...Full Story

	Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Canada Needs More Terrorism Preparation, Critics Say Despite spending more than $7.5 billion on security since 2001, Canada is ill prepared to respond to a potential terrorist attack, some critics say (see GSN, June 10). The chairman of the Senate standing committee on national security and defense, Colin Kenny, said he hopes last week’s bombings in London will reinvigorate the effort. “Will London wake up Canadians?” he said. “Canada is the only country on the al-Qaeda list that hasn’t been hit yet.” Kenny was referring to an al-Qaeda document that listed Australia, Canada, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States as top targets, Macleans reported today. Other Canadian officials disagreed that not enough has been done. Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Minister Anne McLellan said Ottawa’s terrorism response planning has been comprehensive. According to a report released last year by Kenny’s committee, however, Canada is not well prepared to deal with a variety of scenarios, including a crude nuclear device potentially going off in one of its major cities. The report names the Vancouver area as a prime target for such an attack, with its population of about 2 million people and relatively few streets leading out of its downtown. While Vancouver has a comprehensive emergency plan, it emphasizes natural disasters and firefighting, the report says. Authorities have attempted to guard against the scenario of terrorists smuggling a dirty bomb into the country through a seaport, but Kenny’s committee concluded that Canada’s ports are “riddled with criminals whose mission it is to open up holes for smuggling.” In addition, many are now concerned about security in Canada’s subway systems, Macleans reported. For example, the relative depth of Montreal’s Charlevoix metro station — 30 meters from the lowest platform to street level — means it takes passengers more than three minutes to walk from the trains out into the open air. There are comprehensive emergency response measures in place at the station, said Odile Paradis, spokeswoman for the Societe de Transport de Montreal. In the event of an attack on the metro, Montreal police would coordinate the response, she said. In addition, Ottawa set up a government operations center to manage response to a potential attack in spring 2004. However, according to the Kenny report, “the center is a significant ways from completion in terms of having all the infrastructure, procedures and personnel it needs in place to match the government’s pledge” (Geddes/Gilles, Macleans, July 12). Back to top

Book Offers More Careful View on Restricted Weapons By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Drawing lessons from mistaken conclusions about alleged prewar Iraqi arms, a newly revised book by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace aims to offer a more precise, better-supported assessment of global chemical, biological and nuclear arms capabilities (see GSN, Jan. 25). A 2002 version of the book stated that Iraq likely had active nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs, and that Iraqi chemical and biological weapons posed a more serious threat than those of any other country (see GSN, Oct. 17, 2002). A U.S.-led inspection team last year determined Iraq had no such weapons and that its unconventional weapons programs had not operated for years. In Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats, written by Joseph Cirincione, Jon Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar, government intelligence assertions are no longer taken at face value or repeated unchecked.  “The failure to find nuclear, chemical or biological weapons in Iraq underlined how little outsiders can know about what happens within member states without inspectors on the ground,” says the book, which was released today. As in the previous edition, distinctions are made between capabilities for developing or producing arms, developmental programs, and actual weapons, as well as the degree to which such activities are suspected or confirmed.  “Milton Leitenberg points out that official assessments rarely distinguish between suspected, capability, developing, and weapon,” it says, citing a University of Maryland scholar. The term “weapons of mass destruction,” so commonly used as shorthand for diverse chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, is discarded. “A failure to differentiate these threats can lead to seriously flawed policy.   For example, the repeated use of the term ‘weapons of mass destruction’ to describe the potential threat from Iraq before the 2003 war merged the danger that it still had anthrax-filled shells, which was possible, with the danger that it had nuclear bombs, which was highly unlikely,” they wrote. The book is a 490-page update to the widely praised 2002 text, which presented what the authors deemed was the best publicly available information on global nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and missile programs. The new edition meant to encourage a more precise public understanding and portrayal of suspected proliferation. “I think we are mindful that the public perception and the public discussion about these issues has an influence on policy and we want to try and be as precise as possible in providing facts about these issues in order to produce better policy,” said Wolfsthal, deputy director for nonproliferation at the organization, in an interview. Without really saying so, the book also aims to reform its own errors committed in the previous edition — in particular, by stating commonly accepted conclusions not sufficiently supported by available evidence. “It’s something that we have talked about internally and I think did lead directly to the process and the method that we have in place,” Wolfsthal said. “I don’t think it’s unfair to say that earlier editions of Deadly Arsenal did not provide precise enough data and in many ways simply took American intelligence documents as fully authoritative. And that’s something that is no longer done,” he said. Versions of the book before 2002 were published under a different title. Shifting Landscape Many of the book’s updates result from the emergence of new facts, sometimes driven by major developments over the past three years, it says.  New chapters were written on Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, and the global state of nonproliferation affairs. “Since the first Deadly Arsenals came out in 2002, the landscape has entirely changed, so we’ve had to reflect that,” said Wolfsthal. “We talk about North Korea’s recent plutonium production and extraction, as well as the allegations about an HEU [highly enriched uranium] program,” he said. “We catalogue as best we can Iran’s enrichment program, developed through the [former Pakistani nuclear weapons program leader] A.Q. Khan network, and provide up to date references and sources and details on that,” he added.  “It now appears that the entirety of their uranium enrichment program, which is the core of their alleged weapons pursuit, all came through Pakistan,” he said.  Following his detention by Pakistani authorities, Khan gave first details of years of nuclear transfers to Iran, Libya and North Korea in February 2004. Avoiding the ‘Echo Box’ Other changes in the book result from more careful sourcing and drawing of conclusions about such weapons programs, according to Wolfsthal. “While in the past we were willing to take U.S. intelligence assessments at face value, we now basically indicate ‘U.S. intelligence has indicated, or claims. However there is no corroborating evidence’ or ‘Secondary sources aren’t available,’” he said. The impetus is so “people have the ability to assess these things for themselves, as opposed to falling into the echo box,” he said, providing a euphemism for oft-repeated, unsupported conventional wisdom. The book is careful not to conclude the Pakistani proliferation network’s operation has necessarily ended. “It is not clear if this network has shut down or merely gone further underground,” it says. The book also is cautious not to conclude that North Korea has been able to build a nuclear weapon or, as the Bush administration has argued, that Iran has an active nuclear weapons program. “Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, but for more than two decades Tehran has secretly pursued the ability to produce nuclear materials that can be used in weapons,” it says. “U.S. officials and intelligence services in several other nations have concluded that Iran is embarked on a nuclear weapon program, although no direct evidence of weapon activities has been made public.” The 2002 edition of Deadly Arsenals — published as the Bush administration was alleging an active Iraq nuclear weapons program as justification for possible military action — appeared to commit the “echo box” error repeatedly, stating for instance that Iraq probably had restarted a nuclear weapons program after U.N. inspectors withdrew in 1998. “International inspectors destroyed most of Iraq’s nuclear program after the Gulf War, though it has most likely restarted since Iraq blocked inspections in 1998,” it said. That edition also declared Iraq “the most serious proliferation threat” for biological weapons. “Despite having signed the BWC [Biological Weapons Convention] in 1972 and ratified the accord in 1991, Iraq has clearly pursued an active bioweapons program,” it said. It further listed Iraq at the top “in order of concern” of a list of 11 countries with the “most significant remaining national [chemical weapons] programs.” A CIA-commissioned report last year concluded Iraq had no active nuclear, chemical or biological weapons programs in the years prior to the March 2003 U.S. invasion. “We drew conclusions that went beyond what the evidence supported,” Wolfsthal said, regarding the opening, analytical chapter of the 2002 Deadly Arsenals. “There was a reflection of the public debate,” he said. He said the technical analyses deeper in the book were more precise about what was known and not known about countries’ suspected activities. “I think when we look at the detailed chapter on Iraq, I think we’re very comfortable about how we caveated it,” he said. He added, “I don’t think anyone would suggest that we went as far as the administration and I think it matters not only what sort of conclusions you draw, but also what sort of recommendations you have.” Cirincione and other Carnegie experts in a report in early 2003 disputed that Iraq posed an urgent threat to the United States warranting military attack. “We were the only major organization that was questioning openly the Bush administration’s intelligence assessments and that we were actively pushing alternative to the military conflict in Iraq coercive inspections,” Wolfsthal said. Back to top       Money Needed for Mass Transit Security Upgrades The American Public Transportation Association said $6 billion is needed to upgrade transit security, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 8). Congress is expected to increase funding for security upgrades, and technology companies have started advertising their ability to create technology that could detect biological or chemical weapons, AP reported. However, sensors that sound alarms when an agent is detected are years from production. Bomb-sniffing dogs and human surveillance remain the most effective means of detecting a bomb. Instruments that detect bombs by sampling the air are difficult to create, according to David Danley, a retired Army colonel and chief of defense programs at biotechnology company Combimatrix. “Detecting explosives is not an easy thing,” said Danley, whose company is working on a hand-held device for use in the Army that can detect pathogens. The device could also be used to detect chemical weapons using a “gene chip” that contains signatures of known agents, Danley said. However, Danley said that determining what agent the detector should be looking for is the “$64 million question.” “We won’t come up with a 100-percent solution,” he said. The unique nature of mass transit makes it difficult to use security measures like those used at airports, said Gregory Hull, safety and security programs director for the American Public Transportation Association. “You cannot just take the applications that are used in [an] airport and plunk them into the transit system,” Hull said. “But some could be modified” (Elias/Bergstein, Associated Press/USA Today, July 12). Back to top       New York City Tests Weapons Detection Systems Officials with New York City’s Metropolitan Transit Authority are in the trial phases of testing biological or chemical agent detection methods in Grand Central Terminal, the New York Sun reported today (see GSN, July 7). MTA Deputy Chief of Police Ronald Masciana gave reporters a tour of the three biological systems and lone chemical detector being tested in the terminal.   A 6-foot-tall steel box, collects samples that are checked each day for biological agents. Two other detectors are positioned near train tracks, according to the Sun. “Keep in mind that all three are being tested now. We kept the first one going because that is the baseline the others grow upon,” Masciana said. “You can’t depend on lab results. You can’t depend on what the vendor indicates is best for you. ... What you want to do is test it real-time and see how it operates.” Masciana noted that the same biological agent detection systems are being tested at New York’s Pennsylvania Station. The chemical detection system being tested at Grand Central uses video cameras to focus on an area where an agent has been detected by sensors. This would allow first responders to prepare evacuation routes and determine how many casualties have resulted from an attack.  The cost and for the systems to go online is not yet known, officials said. Critics charge that New York’s Transportation Authority been slow to spend the $591 million in federal and state funds allocated for security in its 2000-2004 capital plan. Transit Authority officials said that money for biological and chemical detectors would not come out of the $591 million. Instead, the money is set to be spent on closed-circuit television systems and other surveillance devices, according to MTA spokesman Ashok Patel (Jeremy Smerd, New York Sun, July 12). Back to top

North Korea Reportedly Restarts Work on Two Reactors A North Korean nuclear reactor project could be completed by next year, and any military strike against the installation would result in “all-out war,” senior North Korean officials told a visiting U.S. newspaper columnist (see GSN, July 11). North Korean Foreign Ministry official Li Gun said the 50-megawatt reactor would be “completed this year or next,” Nicholas Kristof wrote in today’s New York Times. “To defend our sovereignty and our system ... we cannot but increase our number of nuclear weapons as a deterrent force,” Li Chan Bok, a North Korean army general, told Kristof. Pyongyang has also resumed building a larger 200-megawatt reactor at another site, officials said. Completion might be two to three years away. Both projects were halted in 1994. The CIA has estimated that, when operational, they could produce plutonium for 50 nuclear weapons annually (Nicholas Kristof, New York Times, July 12). South Korea is willing to provide electricity to North Korea if Pyongyang pledges to relinquish its nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported today. “In order to resolve the nuclear issue, we are willing to transmit power to North Korea if the North agrees on the dismantlement,” said South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young.   The offer includes installing power lines in North Korea, according to AFP. Chung added that he had discussed the plan with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during a visit to Washington last month (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, July 12). Seoul also plans to provide 500,000 tons of rice as well as raw materials for clothing, shoes and soap to North Korea, according to the Associated Press. Rice said the offer was made in response “to the really miserable humanitarian situation of the North Korea people” and would “not in any way undercut the [nuclear] talks” planned for this month (George Gedda, Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, July 12). Rice also warned that no progress would be made at the talks unless North Korea was prepared to relinquish its nuclear program, AP reported. “What we really need is a strategic decision on the part of the North that they are indeed ready to give up their nuclear weapons program,” she said. “Without that, these talks cannot be successful,” she said. “We’re ready to negotiate seriously. We are prepared to roll up our sleeves and do everything we can to make these talks a success,” she said (Gedda, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, July 12). White House spokesman Scott McClellan denied reports suggesting the Bush administration might offer North Korea new incentives to resolve the standoff “Five countries put a proposal on the table one year ago, we want to see North Korea come back to the talks with a serious response to that proposal,” McClellan said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, July 11). A former South Korean negotiator with Pyongyang said yesterday that North Korea could demand to be treated as a nuclear power once talks resume, the Financial Times reported. “I think that, inside the talks, they are going to demand that North Korea be treated as one of the nuclear club countries and if they come up with such a demand, the six-party talks can’t move ahead,” said Lee Dong-bok. “That means North Korea is coming back to the talks not necessarily to resolve the nuclear issue but to earn more time so they can keep muddling along,” Lee said (Anna Fifield, Financial Times, July 12). South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Song Min-soon, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill and Japanese Foreign Ministry official Kenichiro Sasae are expected to meet Thursday in Seoul to plan for the next round of multilateral talks, according to the South Korean Foreign Ministry (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, July 12). Back to top       Russia Dismantles Train-Mounted Missile Launcher Russia is this week dismantling its fifth train-mounted missile launcher this year, Interfax reported yesterday (see GSN, June 16). “The launcher to be destroyed was dismounted from the combat railway train missile system of the Kostroma missile division that had been disbanded earlier this year. There are plans that the destruction will have been over by the end of the week,” said a Defense Ministry spokesman (Interfax/BBC Monitoring, July 11). Back to top       Iran Will Reject Any European Union Proposal Not Allowing for Uranium Enrichment, Officials Say Iran will reject any offer from the European Union that does not allow Tehran to restart its uranium enrichment program, frozen since last year’s Paris Agreement, Iranian officials warned today (see GSN, July 11). “I think the end of the suspension is very close, and the Europeans should keep to their commitments,” said nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian. “Perhaps the Europeans were imagining things after the presidential election,” said negotiator Sirus Naseri, referring to the victory of hard-line candidate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “But they know that if their proposal does not include (a resumption of) uranium enrichment, Iran will reject it,” Naseri said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, July 12). Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, yesterday warned Western nations not to be unfair to his country, the Associated Press reported. “We are urging fair relations with the world, but people are being blocked by some who claim they promote democracy and freedom but act vice versa when they deal with Iranians,” Ahmadinejad said, apparently referring to the United States (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 11). Back to top

U.S. Health, Homeland Security Officials Defend Interagency Countermeasure Cooperation By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Homeland Security and Health and Human Services departments are cooperating well and moving as quickly as they can in efforts to boost the nation’s WMD countermeasure stockpile, officials from the two agencies said today in response to legislators’ concerns (see GSN, June 17). The two agencies have distinct responsibilities but must also work together under last year’s Project Bioshield law, designed to increase the U.S. supply of countermeasures to biological, chemical and radiological agents, mainly by guaranteeing drug makers a government market for the products. The state of communication between the agencies on the program is “an absolute disgrace,” ranking Democrat Bill Pascrell (N.J.) said this morning at a hearing of the House of Representatives Homeland Security Subcommittee on Emergency Preparedness, Science and Technology. Officials, however, said the relationship was working well. “I actually think, in this case, we may be dealing with an exemplary process,” said John Vitko, biological countermeasures director for the Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate, when asked by subcommittee Chairman Pete King (R-N.Y.) about the cooperation. Vitko laid out the steps involved in identifying and eventually procuring countermeasures, which he said entail intense cooperation between the two departments. The process begins with threat assessments of agents by Homeland Security (DHS) and, if warranted, results in development and acquisition efforts by Health and Human Services (HHS). “Once a material threat determination has been issued” by Homeland Security, he said, “the HHS then assesses the potential public health consequences of the identified agent, determines the need for countermeasures, evaluates the availability of current countermeasures and the possibility of development of new countermeasures” and, if warranted, initiates acquisition processes. “Throughout this process, DHS works very closely with HHS,” Vitko said. To date, Homeland Security has issued threat-level determinations for anthrax, smallpox, botulinum toxin and radiological and nuclear devices. Vitko said assessments of plague, tularemia, radiological devices and nerve agents would be completed by year’s end. At the other end of the process, Health and Human Services has so far awarded contracts for two anthrax vaccines and for pediatric potassium iodide. “There is an enormous level of cooperation among us,” said Stewart Simonson, Health and Human Services’ assistant secretary for public health and emergency preparedness. “It’s been getting better, and I think it’s pretty good right now, frankly.” Simonson added that cooperation would intensify over time, as the priorities for countermeasure work become less clear. “In many ways, anthrax and smallpox represent the low-hanging fruit for medical countermeasure research, development and acquisition,” he said. “There was consensus that these were our highest priorities, and we had countermeasures available or relatively far along in the development pipeline to permit acquisition.” Now, “given an almost endless list of potential threats with finite resources to address them,” he said, “prioritization is essential to focus our efforts. We rely heavily on our interagency partner, the Department of Homeland Security, to provide us with a prioritized list of threats along with material threat assessments.” The top Democrat on the full Homeland Security Committee, Bennie Thompson (Miss.), questioned the pace of the countermeasure program, asking why Homeland Security had over the past year issued “only” four material threat determinations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Thompson said, maintains a list of more than 60 agents that Homeland Security must review. Although the officials did not respond directly to Thompson’s presentation of those numbers, Simonson said drug development, approval and production can go only so fast. “The process of defining required specifications for a countermeasure often reveals few if any candidates in the pipeline,” he said. “Basic research and early development efforts, even when robustly funded, often take years before a concept is mature enough for advanced development. The development of medical products … is a complex, lengthy and expensive process.” Back to top       Japan to Begin Stockpiling Smallpox Vaccine The Japanese Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry is expected to begin stockpiling smallpox vaccine for 56 million people in preparation for a possible biological attack, the Daily Yomiuri reported today (see GSN, June 6). A panel of experts recommended the stockpiling plan. The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry plans to increase its stock of the vaccine and to continue studies in light of the panel’s report, an official said. This is the first time the government has disclosed how many smallpox vaccinations are needed to combat an attack, the Yomiuri reported. Japan ended its smallpox vaccination program in 1976. Since then, 38 million people have been born in the country. Approximately 18 million people also did not receive vaccinations for health reason prior to the program’s abolishment. Cost for producing the vaccine is estimated to be more than $151 million, according to ministry officials. Japan announced in 2001 that it would begin stockpiling enough vaccine for 3 million people, but since then has declined to say how much vaccine has been set aside (Daily Yomiuri, July 12). Back to top       Boston Residents File Claim Against Planned Lab Minority residents the area Boston University has chosen as the site for a biological research laboratory have filed a discrimination complaint with the U.S. Health and Human Services Department, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 25). Residents of the city’s Roxbury and South End neighborhoods claim the proposed laboratory poses an unacceptable risk to the community, AP reported. Laura Maslow-Armand of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, the organization representing the residents, called for the withdrawal of federal funds for the laboratory or for the facility to be built at another location. Residents claim in the complaint that the neighborhood, with a 70-percent minority population, is already home to a disproportionate number of potentially hazardous facilities and has the highest hospitalization rate in Boston. Supporters of the laboratory argue that it poses no public health risk, according to AP (Associated Press/TheBostonChannel.com, July 11).               Back to top

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