Iran has vowed to resume activity at its uranium conversion plant at Isfahan, while U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that the nation is about 10 years from producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon (Getty Images/Henghameh Fahimi). Iran a Decade Away From Producing Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Intelligence Forecasts Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon capability, but it is still about 10 years away from producing enough fissile material, according to a recent assessment reflecting the consensus of U.S. intelligence agencies (see GSN, Aug. 1). The new National Intelligence Estimate says that Tehran is unlikely to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon before “early to mid-next decade,” according to four sources familiar with the report, the Washington Post reported today. ..Full Story

Tehran Agrees to Delay Nuclear Work Iran has agreed to a two-day delay of its plans to resume uranium reprocessing in response to a request from International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 1)...Full Story

Pentagon Employees Ask for Continued Hold on Mandatory Anthrax Vaccination Program By David Francis Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Six U.S. Defense Department employees have asked a U.S. appeals court not to lift an injunction blocking mandatory anthrax vaccinations because the vaccine used in the program has never been formally found safe or approved for use against inhalation anthrax (see GSN, May 23). ..Full Story

	Tuesday, August 2, 2005

Bolton Arrives at United Nations Hours after being sworn in as U.N. ambassador yesterday, John Bolton went to New York for meetings with U.S. staff, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Aug. 1; Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 1). Diplomats in New York said Bolton will not be judged on previous statements made about the United Nations, but on his actions as ambassador, according to the Associated Press. “He will be one of the key players because the United States is the largest contributor and a great power in the Security Council,” said German Ambassador Gunter Pleuger. “There are conflicting views on nearly every issue that is on our plate for the reform, and the largest player in the U.N., of course, plays a key role.” “No one should make prejudgments on reputation,” said Chilean Ambassador Heraldo Munoz. “One must do it on the merit of the facts, when we see what happens here.” Bolton’s recess appointment also has no bearing on how he is perceived at the assembly, AP reported. “He's a colleague like any other and will be received as such,” said Ambassador Ellen Margrethe Loj of Denmark, adding that many countries do not require ambassadors to be confirmed by legislators. Bolton is expected to meet with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan today to present his credentials, AP reported. “I think it is all right for one ambassador to come and push, but an ambassador always has to remember that there are 190 others who will have to be convinced, or a vast majority of them, for action to take place,” Annan said following Bolton’s confirmation. Diplomats expect Bolton to be tested soon with the 2005 World Summit in September. Negotiations over a summit document that would have the support of all 191 U.N. members are contentious, with members at odds over issues such as expansion of the Security Council, the definition of terrorism, and protections against genocide and war crimes, according to AP (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, Aug. 2). Back to top

Iran a Decade Away From Producing Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Intelligence Forecasts Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon capability, but it is still about 10 years away from producing enough fissile material, according to a recent assessment reflecting the consensus of U.S. intelligence agencies (see GSN, Aug. 1). The new National Intelligence Estimate says that Tehran is unlikely to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon before “early to mid-next decade,” according to four sources familiar with the report, the Washington Post reported today.  The new estimate is in line with new British and Israeli intelligence, according to the Post. U.S. officials have since 1995 made the case that Iran is “within five years” of acquiring a nuclear weapon, according to the Post. Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, most recently repeated that assertion in congressional testimony in February. The new estimate is the first major review of intelligence on Iran since 2001, the Post reported. The report also says there are “credible indicators” that the Iranian military is conducting clandestine work, though there is no concrete information that such work is related to nuclear weapons. Suspicions that the Iranian military has been running a separate, clandestine nuclear effort have faded somewhat, according to the sources, but some evidence remains of continuing military centrifuge and missile research. A senior intelligence official familiar with the findings, however, said that “it is the judgment of the intelligence community that, left to its own devices, Iran is determined to build nuclear weapons.” Mainly through its nuclear energy program, Tehran is acquiring technologies that could be used to build atomic weapons, the estimate says (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Aug. 2). Back to top       Tehran Agrees to Delay Nuclear Work Iran has agreed to a two-day delay of its plans to resume uranium reprocessing in response to a request from International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 1). ElBaradei requested a “maximum of two days” to send inspectors to Isfahan, where Tehran has said it plans to break U.N. seals on nuclear equipment, said Ali Aga-Mohammadi, spokesman for Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The agency, however, denied asking for only two days. “We have sent a letter to Iran indicating that it would take at least a week to get our surveillance equipment and other required measures in place,” spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said yesterday. ElBaradei, meanwhile, warned Iran “not to take any action that might prejudice the [diplomatic] process at this critical stage.” “I also call on Iran not to take any unilateral action that could undermine the agency inspection process at a time when the agency is making steady progress in resolving outstanding issues,” ElBaradei said (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press/ABC News, Aug. 1). Iran today announced that its decision to resume nuclear activities at Isfahan was irreversible, Reuters reported. “The political decision has been taken. ... The resumption is irreversible,” said Aga-Mohammadi (Reuters, Aug. 2). The United States said yesterday that Iran’s case would be referred to the U.N. Security Council if it restarts the work, Agence France-Presse reported. “If they’re not going to abide by their agreement and obligations, then we would have to look to the Security Council,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Aug. 1). French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said today that the European Union planned to propose an emergency IAEA Board of Governors meeting, AP reported. “This Iranian affair is very serious,” said Douste-Blazy. “It could be the beginning of a major international crisis.” Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin said the case should be sent to the U.N. Security Council if Iran resumes uranium processing at Isfahan. “It will be submitted to the Security Council if Iran does not comply,” Villepin told Europe-1 radio. “Iran must hold to the commitments it has made” (Christine Ollivier, Associated Press/Washington Post, Aug. 2). Three senior diplomats said they suspected Iran of posturing, the Los Angeles Times reported. “Every month or two they go through this … but they’d be really dumb to do it,” a senior Bush administration official said. “There’s a whole lot of posturing involved with the Iranians at any given moment, so I wouldn’t read too much into it.” “We think it’s negotiating pressure to focus the E-3 minds,” said a Western diplomat based in Vienna, referring to France, Germany and the United Kingdom. “The E-3 still is divided on what to offer.” “They are definitely testing us, but we don’t know whether they are testing us to get a better deal,” said one European diplomat. Another European official, however, said Iran’s announcement was “of great concern to us.” “We take their intentions very seriously,” the official said. “We will judge them by their actions, and we will look to the IAEA to inform us of activity on the ground” (Efron/Frantz, Los Angeles Times, Aug. 2). Back to top       North Korea Envoy Sees No Progress at Nuclear Talks North Korea’s top nuclear negotiator said today that no progress had been made at talks in Beijing aimed at resolving the standoff over his country’s nuclear ambitions, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Aug. 1). “The duration of talks was long, but there was no progress,” the Yonhap news agency quoted Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan as saying. “We are in a situation where there are differences in opinions and some issues of contention,” Kim said. Top envoys from all six negotiating nations met again today for the first time since Saturday, according to AP (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 2). U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said the North Korean and U.S. negotiators had failed to overcome some central differences, Agence France-Presse reported. “I need to be very clear that there are a lot of differences between the North Korean side on one hand and everyone else on the other hand,” said Hill, chief U.S. envoy to the talks. “Frankly we were not able to bridge any differences,” he said. He added that the two delegations were unlikely to meet again today, following a series of bilateral talks. The North Korean delegation was refusing U.S. demands that it commit in writing to dismantling all its nuclear programs and admit to possessing a uranium enrichment program, according to Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 2). Japanese and U.S. negotiators are insisting that any final text from the talks state that North Korea must abandon both its military and civilian nuclear programs, the Asahi Shimbun reported today. However, asked Thursday if China views “denuclearization” as including nuclear energy programs, Chinese delegation spokesman Qin Gan replied in a way that was taken to mean that Beijing supports North Korea’s right to civil nuclear development, according to Asahi. Seoul, meanwhile, has avoided addressing the issue, but some experts believe South Korea would be open to allowing the North to have a nuclear energy program, according to Asahi (Yu Yoshitake, Asahi Shimbun, Aug. 2). A North Korean source said talks were likely to end tomorrow, Reuters reported. “Our estimate is that the round should end on Wednesday,” the source told Interfax. “We believe that if we fail to sign a final document, that would mean that the fourth round ... failed” (Ueno/Kim, Reuters, Aug. 2). Some experts were more optimistic about the progress of the talks, AP reported. “North Korea has a tendency to use brinkmanship in the last stage to get maximum concessions,” said Ko Yu-hwan, professor of North Korean studies at South Korea’s Dongguk University. “The pessimistic atmosphere or last-minute struggle can, in a way, be seen as a sign that we are close to getting results from the talks” (Audra Ang, Associated Press/Canada.com, Aug. 2). Meanwhile, Japan’s Defense Agency identified North Korea as a threat in its annual report but declined to say definitively that Pyongyang had developed nuclear weapons, AFP reported today. “There are views that North Korea is resorting to brinkmanship by intentionally heightening tension” by announcing that it has an atomic bomb, an agency white paper states. However, “the possibility of North Korea having considerably advanced its nuclear weapons program cannot be excluded,” it adds. “North Korea needs to be watched carefully because of the problems it poses with its development, deployment and proliferation of ballistic missiles as well as the nuclear problems in general,” the report goes on to say (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 2). Back to top       Questions Remain on India-U.S. Nuclear Deal Some U.S. lawmakers have begun raising questions about the nonproliferation implications of an effort by U.S. President Bush to establish nuclear energy cooperation with India, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, July 26). “The [Bush] administration has no clear plan” on implementing the agreement and “no good answers” regarding its potential effect on international security, said a Republican who attended a recent briefing for congressional staff.  Questions about long it would take for India to separate its civilian and military nuclear programs and to place the civilian component under international monitoring have yet to be answered, administration officials have conceded. Some nonproliferation experts have expressed concern that Washington could act hastily, before New Delhi follows through on nonproliferation promises. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns plans to visit India next month to address such issues, a senior official told Reuters. The administration will probably wait at least a month or two to propose legislation on the plan, pending some Indian action on new nonproliferation commitments. “It will take months for the Indians to begin (to meet) some of their commitments and to complete others,” the official said. “The Indians know we’re going to wait and see all this occur” (Carol Giacomo, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Aug. 1). Back to top       Security Costs to Be Considered in U.S. Study of Nuclear Weapons Site Consolidation The costs associated with securing U.S. nuclear weapons sites against terrorism will be a key factor in deciding whether or not to consolidate the facilities, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said yesterday (see GSN, July 27). Consolidating the most sensitive components of the eight U.S. weapons-related nuclear facilities to one site could lower the number of terrorist targets and facilitate warhead development, according to a preliminary report released two weeks ago by a federal advisory task force. Bodman refused to offer details of the report until the final version is released by the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board. However, because funding for security “has got to come out of somewhere,” the increase in costs “tends to call for consolidation,” Bodman said (Duncan Mansfield, Associated Press, Aug. 1). Back to top       India-Pakistan Nuclear Talks Set for Friday Senior Indian and Pakistani officials are scheduled to discuss nuclear issues and missile test protocols in New Delhi beginning Friday, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, July 25). Officials are expected to talk about increasing the amount of information shared prior to missile tests, possibly to include the missile’s range and the test site. Also on the agenda is the possible creation of a hot line between both countries’ foreign ministries to ensure misunderstandings do not lead to a nuclear exchange, said Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Naeem Khan (Associated Press, Aug. 1). Back to top       GAO to Probe U.S. Nuclear Detection Research Six U.S. lawmakers have asked the Government Accountability Office to investigate whether federal agencies are adequately sharing information on preventing smuggling of nuclear materials, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, July 11). Five national laboratories, funded by the Homeland Security, Defense, State and Energy departments, are working to develop nuclear detection systems. Lawmakers are concerned that work at the laboratories is being duplicated because information is not being shared, according to AP. “It is unclear what advantages we achieve by having so many laboratories involved in these disparate research efforts,” the lawmakers said in their request for an investigation, which is expected to be completed in the next four months. The six were Senators Susan Collins (R-Maine), Carl Levin (D-Mich.), Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), and Representatives John Linder (R-Ga.), John Dingell (D-Mich.) and James Langevin (D-R.I.). They also asked the Accountability Office to determine if the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office, proposed in the fiscal 2006 Homeland Security budget, would be hurt by laboratory duplication. Agency spokeswoman Kathleen Montgomery said the new office was being created to alleviate overlap problems. The office “will strengthen the department’s oversight of the deployment and use of radiation detection equipment, provide greater focus to our work with national laboratories and improve our national response plan to a potential nuclear threat,” Montgomery said (Lara Jakes Jordan, Associated Press/The Guardian, Aug. 1). Back to top       New CTBTO Chief Begins Work The new chief of the Preparatory Commission of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization began work yesterday, according to Deutsche Presse-Agentur (see GSN, June 27). Executive Secretary Tibor Toth of Hungary participated in Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty negotiations in 1996 and worked as the Hungarian representative to the organization from 1997 to 2001. He replaces Germany’s Wolfgang Hoffmann (Deutsche Presse-Agentur, August 2). Back to top

Pentagon Employees Ask for Continued Hold on Mandatory Anthrax Vaccination Program By David Francis Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Six U.S. Defense Department employees have asked a U.S. appeals court not to lift an injunction blocking mandatory anthrax vaccinations because the vaccine used in the program has never been formally found safe or approved for use against inhalation anthrax (see GSN, May 23).  In a brief filed July 29 in the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, lawyers for the employees asked the court to dismiss a Pentagon appeal seeking to have the injunction lifted. The challenge to the vaccination program — over fears of possible side effects — by the six anonymous military and civilian personnel led to a District Court ruling stopping the program in October 2004. The Pentagon, in a brief filed with the court last month, said Food and Drug Administration documentation on BioPort’s Anthrax Vaccine Adsorbed [AVA] proves the vaccine is safe and effective in combating all forms of anthrax. The plaintiffs’ lawyers have disputed this claim.   They have argued that FDA’s scientific records show the vaccine to be ineffective in combating inhalation anthrax, the form military personnel would be most likely to face in the field. The lawyers have also pointed to an agency advisory panel that found the vaccine to be effective only against anthrax contracted through the skin. The agency accepted the panel’s view in 1985, but changed its position in 2003 by issuing a final order declaring the vaccine effective against inhalation anthrax. However, a federal judge found that the agency did not follow procedures in making that determination, vacated the order, and demanded that FDA officials open the rule for public comments, the brief says. “Against this undisputed factual background, the government's claim that FDA has consistently considered AVA to include inhalation anthrax is nothing less than ludicrous. At no time did the appropriate FDA officials or experts ever make such a claim. Moreover, until finally forced to do so by the District Court's decision, FDA has carefully avoided making any official pronouncement concerning the AVA’s status,” plaintiffs argued in the brief. The attorneys have accused the Food and Drug Administration of ignoring this scientific record on the vaccine by issuing the 2003 final rule.  “In short, there is ample undisputed, factual support for the District Court's opinion that AVA was not considered to be licensed for inhalation anthrax by FDA, DOD, or anyone else until it became politically expedient, as opposed to scientifically validated, to do so,” the brief says. As the vaccine has never been proven safe, the Pentagon is forbidden by military law from requiring troops to take it, the plaintiffs attorney’s have argued. Under U.S. Code Title 10, the military cannot force personnel to take unapproved or investigational new drugs without giving them the option to refuse the drug.  “The District Court granted plaintiffs' motion for summary judgment and enjoined the use of AVA [Anthrax Vaccine Adsorbed] for the simple reason that the vaccine was an investigational new drug or a drug unapproved for its applied/intended use, and that defendant DOD's [Defense Department] involuntary program violated” military law, the brief states. “The undisputed facts show that the only human test of the vaccine did not provide sufficient evidence to support the vaccine's use as a prophylaxis against inhalation anthrax.” Finally, the plaintiffs’ brief counters the government’s argument that because only six employees challenged the program, the District Court acted improperly by issuing an injunction covering the entire military. The brief says that because the vaccination program was based upon the incorrect safety determination by the Food and Drug Administration and because a mandatory vaccination program affects all military personnel, the District Court acted correctly in stopping the program across all armed services. The plaintiffs’ brief adds that the full injunction saves the government from facing a rash of lawsuits from personnel who claim injury after taking the vaccine. “Without a military-wide injunction, this Circuit [Court] and DOD would face an unmanageable tsunami of litigation. The government complains that any judicial intervention will unduly disrupt military affairs. But the government slyly overlooks the fact that a flood of litigation would be far more disruptive to the military than simply providing informed consent” for the vaccine, the brief says. The government has 15 days to respond to the brief, said plaintiffs’ attorney John Michels. If the court agrees to hear the appeal, a date would be set for oral arguments, Michels said. The vaccine has been available to military personnel since May under a voluntary program, after the Food and Drug Administration approved its emergency use. Those wishing to receive the vaccine must be briefed on the risks and benefits of the treatment by their commanders and acknowledge receiving the brochure explaining these risks. The vaccine is available to troops deployed in Central Command theaters, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, and in South Korea. As of July 7, half of military and civilian personnel offered anthrax vaccinations under the voluntary program have refused the vaccine, according to Military Vaccine Agency figures (see GSN, July 7). FDA Commissioner Lester Crawford recently extended the voluntary program until 2006 (see GSN, July 25).  Back to top       NIH Worker Charged in Anthrax Hoax A National Institutes of Health employee was charged with spreading false information and making a hoax under the federal Terrorism Prevention Act after she allegedly made an anthrax threat to the Broward County, Fla., tax assessors office, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 19). Michelle Ledgister, a quality control and assurance officer at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, left a voicemail message with the Broward County Property Appraiser's Office in July following a dispute over property she owns in Florida. She was arrested in Maryland, AP reported. “You guys now have anthrax spores once again, so do be careful,” the arrest warrant alleges Ledgister said in the message. No anthrax was found during a search of the assessors’ office, according to AP. A NIH spokesman said Ledgister does not have access to anthrax. Ledgister could be sentenced to five years in prison if convicted (Associated Press/The Ledger, Aug. 2). Back to top       Indiana Postal Facility to Receive Anthrax Detector Anthrax detection equipment is expected to be installed this month at the U.S. Postal Service mail-processing center in Bloomington, Ind., the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 29). The Biohazard Detection System is scheduled to be in place at the Bloomington facility on Aug. 20 and begin operating by Aug. 26, Postal Service customer relations coordinator Kim Yates said.  This system is one of 10 to be installed at mail facilities throughout Indiana, according to AP (Associated Press/WRTV, Aug. 2). Back to top

Missile Defense Radar Begins Journey to Alaska An $815 million X-band radar platform is expected to soon begin its journey to Alaska’s Adak Island to become part of the U.S. missile defense program, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, June 8). The system, built by Raytheon and Boeing in Texas, is 21 stories high and as wide as a football field. As it is too large to fit through the Panama Canal, the platform will sail around South America. It is scheduled to reach Adak late this year or in early 2006, according to AP. The radar is expected to sit off the coast of the Aleutian chain island and will be connected to missile interceptors in Fort Greely in Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California (Associated Press/Denton Record-Chronicle, Aug. 1). Back to top       German Lawmakers Stall on Patriot Sales to Seoul Some members of the German parliament have reservations about selling Patriot missile interceptor systems to South Korea, the Yonhap news agency reported today (see GSN, July 14). The deal of the used Patriot systems would generate more than $400 million, according to the German Defense Ministry. The Green Party, the minority party in the ruling coalition, however, criticized the government for being motivated by the revenue. “Decisive must be that a Patriot sale does not promote or prolong tensions,” Winfried Nachtwei, defense spokesman for the Green Party, told Defense News. Seoul is expected to propose a memorandum of understanding by next month, Defense News reported. If the deal goes forward, the missiles would be delivered toward the end of next year (Yonhap/Korea Times, Aug. 2).         Back to top

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