By Greg Webb Global Security Newswire
VIENNA — European diplomats attempted a new tactic today while trying to build greater pressure on Iran to cooperate fully with international nuclear inspectors, but the move faces significant hurdles that may prevent it receiving any more diplomatic support than prior efforts (see GSN, Sept. 21). Earlier this week the European Union — led by France, Germany and the United Kingdom — spearheaded a push here for the International Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council. The move, strongly supported by the United States, is intended to push Tehran to offer more nuclear information to the agency, whose top official has complained of inadequate Iranian cooperation. The three EU nations had been promoting a draft board resolution that would report Iran immediately to the council. However, officials here said the draft faced rigid opposition from Russia and China — both with Security Council veto powers — and from the so-called Nonaligned Movement, represented by a loose bloc of 14 board members from developing nations. With a goal of passing that resolution by consensus seemingly out of reach, the EU nations late yesterday tried a new draft resolution that does not immediately send the matter to the council. Rather, it “finds that Iran’s many failures and breaches of obligations to comply with its [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] safeguards agreement … constitute noncompliance in the context of … the agency’s statute.” Only once before, in the case of North Korea, has the agency board found a nation in “noncompliance” during a dispute. In the case of Iran, the board last year found Iran guilty only of “many breaches” of its nuclear disclosure obligations. The new term is significant because the agency statute says, “The board shall report the noncompliance to all members and to the Security Council and General Assembly of the United Nations.” Diplomats said the new draft would therefore still appear to cause Iran to be reported to the Security Council, but the question of when and what to say in that report would remain at the board’s discretion. ProspectsSpeeches made to the board this morning suggest that this new approach would not find consensus support either because of the apparent inevitability of Security Council involvement. “Any remaining problems pertaining to the issue of Iran’s nuclear program should be resolved only within the framework of the IAEA,” said Malaysian Ambassador Rajmah Hussein, who spoke on behalf of the Nonaligned Movement. Russia and China, the primary targets of the new EU draft, are also unlikely to support the new resolution. “I don’t think it’s even close,” said one Western diplomat. Another official who heard today’s speeches quoted Russia’s ambassador as saying that Moscow “believes in keeping the consensus, as a common approach,” and was “against any heightening of the issue, including referral to the Security Council. That would be counterproductive both towards Iran’s nuclear program and on the NPT.” China also opposed Security Council referral, although its board statement “was a little bit more mild,” said the Western diplomat. With apparently little prospect for consensus, the EU nations could revert to their earlier draft and seek its passage by a majority vote of the 35 board members. A slim majority supports the earlier draft, several officials said, but a nonconsensus decision would be considerably weaker than one with the full support of parties. The board has never made a decision on nuclear safeguards without consensus, according to a diplomat closely familiar with the agency’s history. That prospect now appears real. The EU nations “thought that the second draft would enable some countries who were against [the first draft] to come on board [the second]. I suspect that if they find that none of the countries come on board the second draft, or not a significant type [Russia and China], then they might just go for the first one,” said the Western diplomat. Other officials concurred. Iran, meanwhile, complained that IAEA criticisms were unfounded and delivered a spirited defense today of its cooperation with the agency and of its peaceful nuclear aims. Ambassador Mohamed Mahdi Akhondzadeh delivered a six-page account of the many areas in which Iran has provided information to the agency in an effort to rebut charges that it must provide more. On Monday, agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei told reporters, “The material that has been declared to us in Iran is accounted for and is under safeguards, but we are not yet in a position to say that all nuclear material and activity in Iran has been declared to us.” In response today, Akhondzadeh issued an invitation to ElBaradei to visit Tehran to “discuss … the remaining outstanding issues and how to enhance cooperation with the IAEA.” “Haste here can make terrible waste,” Akhondzadeh said. “Let us put the threat back in the drawers, return to negotiations and give ourselves time to resolve this matter in peace.” What NextNeither of the two EU draft resolutions has been formally presented, and the board recessed today after its morning session to let delegations continue their negotiations. It is theoretically possible that the meeting could end tomorrow with no decisions at all, but most officials here said there was considerable pressure to reach some decision by the end of the week.
By Jim Wurst Global Security Newswire
UNITED NATIONS — Diplomats at this week’s U.N. General Assembly meeting expressed their disappointment that the body’s preceding summit failed to address nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation. However, they offered few ideas for breaking the deadlock (see GSN, Sept. 14). The assembly began the general debate of its 60th session on Saturday, immediately after the close of the summit. Secretary General Kofi Annan repeated his lament from last week about the failure of negotiators to include any language on disarmament and nonproliferation in the summit’s “outcome document.” “Months of negotiations yielded silence. States could not even agree to reaffirm their existing commitments, or find a way forward, even at the level of principles. They have been content to point fingers at each other, rather than work for solutions,” Annan said Saturday in opening the debate. Other leaders and diplomats echoed Annan’s recriminations. “None of us can justly claim that our failure as the United Nations to take specific decisions on these matters served to enhance global security from the threat of weapons of mass destruction,” South African President Thabo Mbeki said Saturday. “The summit was a lost opportunity on disarmament and nonproliferation. Multilateral nonproliferation regimes are being tested now by a small minority of governments that flout the norms and standards observed by the rest of the international community,” Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said yesterday before the General Assembly. Downer endorsed many of the initiatives that have broad support in the international community, but where consensus has not been possible. “We will continue to take a leading role in the universalizing the Additional Protocol on strengthened nuclear safeguards, making it a precondition for the supply of uranium to non-nuclear weapon states,” he said. “It is not acceptable in the current global climate that we have not started negotiations on a fissile materials cutoff treaty, a treaty which would reduce the risk of leakage of fissile material to proliferators or terrorists and buttress nuclear disarmament gains made to date.” Swedish Foreign Minister Laila Freivalds said that the nuclear threat is not being taken seriously enough. “It should have been made clear, at the summit, that disarmament commitments are to be implemented, and that nonproliferation undertakings are to be complied with,” she said Saturday. “The countries in possession of nuclear weapons have a special responsibility to disarm. At the summit, there should have been decisions to strengthen verification,” Freivalds said. “There should have been commitments to make the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] and other arms conventions universal. Negotiation processes should have been given a boost by the summit. Nothing of all this actually happened.” When the first draft of the summit outcome document was circulated in June, the section on disarmament and nonproliferation included specific language calling on states to fulfill their arms control commitments and endorsing numerous existing commitments, such as bringing the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty into force and beginning negotiations on a fissile materials cutoff treaty. At the beginning of August, Norway led six other nations in submitting alternative language to this section that would have sharpened governments’ commitments to disarmament and nonproliferation. In mid-August, however, the United States submitted hundreds of proposed changes to the entire draft, giving other countries the opening to introduce their own amendments. This meant that countries opposing references to disarmament, notably the United States, were matched by Pakistan and other countries that wanted to delete references to nonproliferation, in particular the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The result of the stalemate was that the entire disarmament and nonproliferation section was deleted. Annan last week called this outcome “a real disgrace.” In his speech Saturday, Annan encouraged Norway and the other nations — Australia, Chile, Indonesia, Romania, South Africa and the United Kingdom — “to continue their efforts to find a way forward” on disarmament and nonproliferation. Speaking on Saturday shortly after Annan, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice addressed nonproliferation issues only in the context of Iran’s nuclear program. Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri yesterday called the summit’s “failure … dangerous for peace and stability.” “It is time for the international community, for the entire U.N. membership, not just some self-selected states, to promote a new consensus on disarmament and nonproliferation through the Conference on Disarmament or a special session of the U.N. Disarmament Commission,” Kasuri said.
Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, the top U.S. envoy to North Korean disarmament talks, has proposed a visit to Pyongyang next month for direct discussions with the communist nation’s leadership, a South Korean official said today (see GSN, Sept. 21). Unification Minister Chung Dong-young said he relayed Hill’s proposal last week to North Korean officials during inter-Korean talks in Pyongyang. “Should Hill’s visit to the North be realized, it would serve an opportunity to further solidify the outcome of the six-party talks,” Chung said. The South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo reported today that some U.S. officials opposed a Hill visit. State Department spokeswoman Darla Jordan responded to the report by saying that “nothing has changed,” the Associated Press reported today (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press/San Diego Union-Tribune, Sept. 22). Hill warned North Korea not to play “hide and seek” with nuclear inspectors once they return to the country and demanded that Pyongyang reveal its suspected uranium enrichment program, the Financial Times reported today. “We need a system that works. We don’t want to play hide and seek. We don’t want to be running around the North Korean countryside,” Hill said. “We need much more clarity on [the alleged uranium program] than we have now,” he said. Hill added that North Korea’s latest demands this week for a light-water nuclear reactor before disarming were “unhelpful.” He said the United States and its negotiating partners remained opposed to discussing the provision of a reactor for energy production until Pyongyang dismantles its atomic weapons installations. Hill acknowledged that dismantling North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor could take years and that Seoul would need three years to provide a promised 2,000 megawatts of electricity to the North (Dinmore/Fifield, Financial Times, Sept. 22). Provision of a light-water reactor can only be considered once North Korea has completed dismantling its indigenous nuclear program, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday. Lavrov said he and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice agreed in a recent meeting that the six parties would follow the sequence of steps elaborated in last week’s Beijing agreement (RIA Novosti, Sept. 21).
By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — A key figure in the White House response to the Sept. 11, 2001, al-Qaeda attacks today scoffed at the idea that the global terrorist network could carry off a nuclear strike (see GSN, Sept. 21). A radiological attack by the terrorist group is a concern, but not a nuclear bomb, said former National Security Council Transnational Threats Director Roger Cressey. “I’m not as worried about [al-Qaeda head Osama] bin Laden with a nuke, per se,” Cressey said at a Brookings Institution terrorism conference. “I’m worried about an RDD.” “The big mushroom cloud threat? I don’t buy it,” said Cressey, now the president of Good Harbor Consulting and an analyst for NBC News. However, former Deputy Homeland Security Adviser Richard Falkenrath, called the prospect of al-Qaeda with a nuclear weapon “a long-standing and very serious concern.” During the panel discussion on the state of al-Qaeda, experts agreed that the terrorist organization has changed dramatically since the 2001 attacks, becoming less centralized. “Al-Qaeda as we knew it pre-9/11 doesn’t exist any more,” Falkenrath said. Falkenrath praised the government for preventing any subsequent attacks on U.S. soil but called the failure to apprehend bin Laden “simply an outrage.” The balance sheet on post-9/11 antiterrorism efforts is basically unsatisfactory, he said. “I’m worried that …it’s slipping and it’s becoming a sort of B-list issue,” Falkenrath said. Cressey said the United States must do more to understand the operational potential of what remains of al-Qaeda following the post-9/11 captures and killings of many in the group’s leadership. “We’ve got a really good idea of what this adversary’s intent is,” Cressey said. “What we don’t know is what the capability is.” Cressey added that Italy, because it has supported the United States and has done comparatively little to suppress terrorists within its borders, is likely to be the next target for the anti-Western forces. “I think there’s a pretty good belief that Italy is next on the al-Qaeda-inspired/al-Qaeda-directed hit list,” he said.
The U.S.-Russian “Megatons to Megawatts” program has eliminated the equivalent of 10,000 nuclear warheads, marking the halfway point in the 20-year program, the U.S. Enrichment Corp. announced in a press statement yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 6, 2004). The organization’s mission is to purchase low-enriched uranium that has been converted in Russia from highly enriched uranium once contained in Soviet nuclear warheads. The low-enriched uranium is then sold for use in commercial U.S. nuclear power plants. Since 1995, the program has converted 250 metric tons of highly enriched uranium into LEU fuel. A total of 500 metric tons is scheduled to be converted by 2013 (U.S. Enrichment Corp. release, Sept. 21).
The United States should not reduce its 500-strong nuclear missile arsenal, a group of senators wrote in a letter sent yesterday to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld (see GSN, Sept. 20). A Defense Department review of future military strategy is expected to be released by early next year, and senators expressed concern that the assessment would recommend scaling back the stockpile. “We know there are discussions going into” a potential missile reduction, said Senator Kent Conrad (D-N.D.). “Once you start reducing, where do you stop?” The eight Democratic and Republican senators said the U.S. nuclear deterrent remains vital to the country’s security. “The strategic nuclear forces that deterred Soviet aggression and kept the limited conflicts of the Cold War era from escalating to global annihilation continue to play a critical role,” the letter says. Pentagon officials have stressed that the missiles are an essential component of Washington’s nuclear strategy, according to AP, but they have not commented on the details of the review (Mary Clare Jalonick, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 21).
While the Bush administration is boycotting this week’s Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty conference, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan yesterday urged the United States and 10 other nations to ratify the pact and bring it into force, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 21). “The longer entry into force of the treaty is delayed, the greater the risk that someone, somewhere, will test nuclear weapons,” Annan said yesterday as the three-day conference opened. “That would be a major setback for the cause of nonproliferation and disarmament.” The treaty has 33 of the 44 signatures from “Annex A” nations needed to bring the pact into force. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw also pressed for ratification. “Sixty years after the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki this conference is an opportunity to reaffirm our common commitment to the CTBT,” Straw said. The United States has signed the treaty, but the Bush administration opposes it, AP reported. Pakistan “does not give priority” to the treaty, said Dutch Ambassador Jaap Ramaker, the special representative charged with promoting ratification. He said Indian officials would not meet with him. Ramaker added that ratification by Israel, Egypt, Iran and North Korea “is in one way or the other tied to wider regional security issues which complicate matters.” China and Vietnam seem to favor eventual ratification, he said, adding that he hopes to meet with Indonesian and Colombian officials to discuss the issue (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 22).
Canada’s trade minister yesterday said his country expects to support India’s nuclear energy program, the Canadian Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 20). Trade Minister Jim Peterson is scheduled to meet today in New Delhi with Indian Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar. “We will certainly be looking at a number of issues, including nuclear (energy),” Peterson said. “Our framework is one of safety. We have offered India to collaborate in term of the safety aspect of its (nuclear) system, which was originally based on the Canadian concept.” Peterson also said the countries plan to conduct more collaborative research into biotechnology and nanotechnology (Canadian Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 22).
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