Iran could develop a nuclear weapons capacity in five years with a fully committed effort, according to a study released today by a London-based think tank (see GSN, Aug. 26). “We estimate, if everything goes right, if they throw all their effort into solving their problems, they might be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear weapon within five years,” Gary Samore, editor of the report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told BBC radio. However, Samore said Iran was more likely to acquire production capability over 10 or 15 years before deciding whether to acquire a nuclear bomb. The report also says it is unlikely that Iran has stockpiled significant amounts of undeclared nuclear weapons materials, but that its ability to design and manufacture a nuclear weapon was less clear. In addition, the document warns of the consequences of a nuclear-capable Iran. “At worst, it could lead to a long-term erosion of the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty, as additional countries sought to hedge their bets by acquiring latent nuclear weapons capability under the guise of dual use fuel-cycle programs,” it says (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Sept. 6). The International Atomic Energy Agency said in a report Friday to its Board of Governors Friday that Iran has produced about 7 tons of uranium hexafluoride — enough for an atomic bomb — since resuming reprocessing last month, the Associated Press reported. The confidential report obtained by AP says the agency was unable “to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran.” “Iran’s full transparency is indispensable and overdue,” it says. It calls on Iran to provide “access to individuals, documentation related to procurement ... certain military-owned workshops and research and development locations.” The report cites gaps in documentation provided by Tehran detailing the development of its centrifuge program. The report did, however, confirm that most of the traces of weapon-grade uranium found on Iranian equipment originated in Pakistan — though it added that it could not determine the origins of low-enriched uranium traces. The document reports on Iranian activities through the end of last month, when inspectors last visited the Isfahan uranium conversion facility, according to AP (George Jahn, Associated Press/Washington Post, Sept. 3). The report provides the United States and the European Union with ample evidence to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions, said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. “It again shows that Iran is not willing to cooperate to clear up what are violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” he said. A senior U.S. diplomat said that unless Iran ceases uranium conversion, cooperates with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, and returns to negotiations with the European Union, the IAEA board should refer the matter to the Security Council, Agence France-Presse reported (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/Hindustan Times, Sept. 4). Iran believes the report “contains errors” and makes “excessive” demands on Tehran, a senior official there said today. “Iran’s response to the report is being prepared and will be given to the IAEA soon. This response is in fact a rejection of the report by the director general, which contains errors,” said nuclear negotiator Ali Agha Mohammadi. “In certain cases, the report includes excessive demands and inspections that go beyond” those required by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, he said (Agence France-Presse/IranMania.com, Sept. 7). Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, meanwhile, said Iran would move to satisfy international concerns as it continues with its nuclear development, AFP reported today. “Having said this principle, that we are determined to have nuclear technology, at the same time we are fully prepared to have any negotiation or discussion to remove the international concern,” Larijani said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 7). Top deputies in Iran’s parliament, however, threatened to limit international inspections at the country’s nuclear sites, AFP reported yesterday. If the West “wishes to deprive Iran of its rights by using political pressure, a suitable decision will be taken such as a halt to inspections or a halt in the application of the Additional Protocol [to Iran’s IAEA safeguards agreement],” said foreign policy commission spokesman Kazem Jalali (Agence France-Presse/IranMania.com, Sept. 6). French President Jacques Chirac took a hard line with Iran Monday, warning Tehran that it would face the Security Council if it did not abide by a nuclear freeze as declared under November’s Paris Agreement. “The use of civilian nuclear energy, which is perfectly legitimate, must not serve as a pretext for pursuing activities that could actually be aimed at building up a military nuclear arsenal,” Chirac said (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/Washington Post, Sept. 1). British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, however, said Friday that London hopes Tehran will resume negotiations, Reuters reported. “We want to see these talks resumed because we not only believe this is in the interests of the international community but also in the interests of Iran,” he said (Reuters, Sept. 2). The European Union, though, has lost hope that Iran will reinstate a nuclear freeze or resume nuclear negotiations, a senior EU diplomat said yesterday. Iran’s decision to reject EU incentives and instead resume uranium conversion meant that the EU’s diplomatic role was effectively finished, he told AFP. “If the Iranians changed their minds and decided to restart the suspension or discuss restarting the suspension, I think that would be very interesting, but that doesn’t seem remotely likely,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 6). Russia, however, remains opposed to referring Iran’s case to the Security Council, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Yakovenko told Interfax (Reuters, Sept. 5). Meanwhile, an Iranian exile group said last week that China had provided Iran with dual-use material that could be used in a nuclear weapons program, Reuters reported. The National Council of Resistance of Iran said Iran obtained beryllium, a substance under international export controls, from China last year. “The (Iranian) Ministry of Defense is vigorously trying to obtain beryllium. This includes smuggling 20 kilograms of beryllium from China in 2004 for use in the regime’s nuclear weapons project,” the council announced in a statement. Beryllium can be combined with polonium 210 to create a catalyst for a nuclear explosion, according to Reuters (Francois Murphy, Reuters, Sept. 1). Elsewhere, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reinstated the head of Iran’s nuclear program yesterday, AP reported. Gholamreza Aghazadeh, who has led Iran’s nuclear program since 1997, will remain in his post, seemingly indicating that the new administration will continue to take a hard line on nuclear policy, according to AP (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press/Washington Post, Aug. 29). The U.S. State Department, meanwhile, announced that Washington would grant a visa to Ahmadinejad to attend the opening next week of the U.N. General Assembly, the Washington Post reported today (Robin Wright, Washington Post, Sept. 7).
North Korea plans to build additional nuclear reactors that could produce weapons material, Pyongyang’s top nuclear negotiator told a visiting U.S. lawmaker last week (see GSN, Aug. 26). Kim Kye Gwan told U.S. Representative James Leach (R-Iowa), the chairman of the House Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, that North Korea “ought to have the right to a light-water reactor.” “Beyond that, there was a notification that they are proceeding with the building of a graphite facility,” said Leach, referring to the type of reactor North Korea operates at its Yongbyon nuclear site. Pyongyang is also working toward developing additional weapon-grade nuclear material, said Leach, who traveled to North Korea with Representative Tom Lantos (D-Calif), the Associated Press reported (Ji-Soo Kim, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 4). U.S. officials have indicated that they might be willing to compromise on a nuclear energy program for Pyongyang if it abandons all nuclear activity and admits international inspectors, the Washington Post reported Sunday. “When that takes place, other possibilities are open,” Lantos said. He added, however, that North Korea had not indicated willingness to accept such a compromise (Edward Cody, Washington Post, Sept. 4). North Korea would be allowed to operate a nuclear energy program if it resumed its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a senior Chinese official said Thursday. “According to relevant rules of the NPT, a country could enjoy certain rights if it assumes due obligations,” said Zhang Yan, director general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s arms control department. “In this sense, if a country joins the treaty and accepts the supervision of safety guarantee by the International Atomic Energy Agency, it has the right to use nuclear power peacefully,” Zhang said (Reuters, Sept. 1). North Korea, meanwhile, appears ready to resume negotiations on its nuclear program on Sept. 13. Officials there are apparently holding fast to their demand to be allowed a nuclear energy program, AP reported. “Our nuclear power facilities have been built on decades of belt-tightening of our people. Our people’s sweat and blood is in those facilities. It is unimaginable for us to give this up without an alternative,” said a commentary in the Rodong Sinmun daily (Associated Press/USA Today, Sept. 6). South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said today that there would be no time limit on the upcoming six-nation talks, Agence France-Presse reported. “With no ending date fixed in advance, the talks will continue as long as there are chances for making any progress,” Ban said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 7). Meanwhile, in New York, the head of the international consortium set up to build two nuclear power plants for North Korea as part of a 1994 disarmament deal has resigned his position. Charles Kartman, executive director of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, plans to step down Sept. 1, said KEDO spokesman Brian Kremer (Peter James Spielmann, Associated Press/Washington Post, Aug. 28).
By David Francis Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Energy Department has failed to implement adequate accounting controls on its nuclear nonproliferation work in Russia and other nations, according to a report released last week by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (see GSN, July 28). The auditors examined records for contracts managed by the department’s National Nuclear Security Administration and found that one agency office lacked “the processes ensuring that work done under a contract meets contract specifications and that payments go to contractors as intended.” “Staff could not provide a complete set of deliverables, invoices, and approvals of deliverables and invoices for seven of the nine contracts we reviewed,” the GAO report states. “The types of missing documents differed among contracts.” The agency said the inability of the NNSA Office of Nonproliferation and International Security to deliver the documents might indicate that officials who manage contract work do not have access to these records. The office lacks “procedural guidance on how to maintain management controls for its contracts” and “does not periodically review its management control processes … to ensure that the controls remain appropriate and effective,” according to the report. To correct these problems, the Government Accountability Office recommends that: the National Nuclear Security Administration “develop guidance for implementing and documenting management controls … program managers have quick access to key contract records, regardless of the records’ location, and NNSA perform periodic reviews of its management controls to ensure their effectiveness.” The report states that the nuclear security agency accepted the recommendations and would begin working to implement those changes. However, NNSA officials objected to the assessment of management controls in certain cases. The report, requested by members of the Senate and House of Representatives armed services committees, also found that the NNSA Nuclear Risk Reduction Office and the International Material Projection and Cooperation could document controls for nearly all contracted work. The Government Accountability Office reviewed two Nuclear Risk Reduction Office and seven Material Projection and Cooperation contracts. Work contracted by the Nuclear Security Administration includes “upgrading the security of nuclear weapons sites and ‘blending-down’ weapons-grade highly enriched uranium so it can be used in nuclear power plants to generate electricity,” according to the GAO report. The U.S. Energy Department, from fiscal 2001 to 2004, allocated $1.7 billion for this type of contract work.
The United States is pushing for the removal of all references to disarmament from the U.N. reform plan to be considered this month by world leaders, Reuters reported last week (see GSN, Aug. 26). U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said the changes proposed by the United States “significantly strengthen and focus [the draft plan’s disarmament and proliferation section] with respect to responding effectively to current and emerging threats. … Our changes identify as well the proposals in the current draft that run contrary to U.S. policies and, as such, will not receive U.S. endorsement,” he wrote in a letter to colleagues at the United Nations. Bolton wants to remove the word “disarmament” from the plan and concentrate on weapons proliferation. He also wants references to a moratorium on nuclear testing removed and language on nuclear-free zones deleted, according to Reuters. Reference to “the peaceful use of nuclear energy” should also be eliminated because of concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, Bolton argued (Irwin Arieff, Reuters I, Sept. 1). Reuters also reported that negotiators claim that Australian Ambassador John Dauth said there was “no prospect of making progress” on the proliferation issue (Evelyn Leopold, Reuters II, Sept. 5).
A Brazilian nuclear scientist said his nation’s military had almost completed work on an atomic weapon by 1990 through a secret program, the Associated Press reported on Aug. 30 (see GSN, Nov. 29, 2004). The military was preparing a nuclear test before the program was dismantled in August 1990, said Jose Luiz Santana, former president of Brazil’s nuclear energy commission. Former Brazilian President Jose Sarney in August disclosed that he had eliminated a nuclear weapons program in 1985, when he came to power following a 20-year military dictatorship. Santana, however, said the military continued a clandestine program even after Sarney left office in 1990. An underground test blast was planned in the eastern Amazon before the program was terminated, he said. “I took office in April 1990 ... but it was only in August that [the Brazilian nuclear energy commission] managed to gain control of the container” of enriched uranium from the military, Santana told Globo TV. The commission denied the allegations. “There do not exist any documents in the institutional archives or information that prove the claims in the story,” the agency said in a statement. The statement also says that the International Atomic Energy Agency oversees all nuclear material in Brazil (Michael Astor, Associated Press/ABCNews.com, Aug. 30).
A former Russian official awaiting extradition to the United States to face embezzlement charges has accused Washington of attempting to smear Moscow, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 16). Former Nuclear Energy Minister Yevgeny Adamov stands accused of diverting $9 million in U.S. nuclear safety aid. He is being held in Switzerland, awaiting extradition to either Russia or the United States. “Their main goal is to prove that the government of Russia is corrupt, and such [a] country with nuclear weapons can’t be left uncontrolled; it needs guardianship, control and patronage,” Adamov told Ekho Moskvy radio. “The creation of an image of a corrupt Russia with a thieving, corrupt leadership is a step toward the occupation of our country,” he said (Associated Press/Moscow Times, Sept. 6). A Moscow court last month rejected an appeal of Adamov’s arrest on charges of fraud and abuse of office, RIA Novosti reported. His attorney had argued that the arrest was illegal. The judge ruled that Adamov could remain in custody until Oct. 8. The Swiss Federal Department of Justice has final say on which country receives Adamov, RIA Novosti reported (RIA Novosti, Sept. 5). The United States is maintaining its extradition request on Adamov, RIA Novosti reported (RIA Novosti, Aug. 30).
Egypt last month rejected the International Atomic Energy Agency’s request to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 2). “Egypt’s ratification of the (test ban) treaty is linked to the extent of developments that may occur in regional and international circumstances, including the possibility that Israel may join the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty],” Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit was quoted by the Middle East News Agency as saying (Salah Nasrawi, Associated Press/Washington Post, Aug. 27).
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