Russia Confident CW Stockpile Will Be Gone by 2012

By Jon Fox, Global Security Newswire

MOSCOW — Russia remains confident that it will meet the 2012 international deadline to destroy its vast chemical weapons stockpile, officials said this week.  Experts and officials from other countries applauded Moscow’s efforts, but expressed doubts about its schedule (see GSN, Sept. 8).

Once it became clear that neither the United States nor Russia would meet the original April 2007 cutoff date under the Chemical Weapons Convention, both nations this year appealed to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to extend the weapons disposal deadline by five years.

Before it applied for the extension, however, the United States indicated that the destruction of U.S. chemical weapons was likely to continue through 2017.  Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told Congress that just two-thirds of the U.S. stockpile would be destroyed by 2012 (see GSN, April 18).

Speaking here Wednesday at a forum on chemical weapon destruction, a senior Russian Foreign Ministry official said emphatically that his nation would meet the 2012 deadline.

“We should and will fulfill our obligation at any cost,” Valery Biryukov said.

Russian financial commitments to chemical weapon destruction projects have been increasing steadily to more than $600 million for the coming year, Russian officials said. 

Russia’s chemical weapon stockpile of 40,000 metric tons is the largest in the world, and only three of its planned seven destruction facilities have been completed.  Construction one of the other plants, the largely U.S.-funded facility at Shchuchye, has been stalled for more than a year (see GSN, Nov. 2).

Despite setbacks, Russia has made considerable progress toward treaty benchmarks, said Paul Walker, director of the Legacy Program at Global Green USA.  Considering that Russia began addressing elimination of its chemical weapons stockpiles 10 to 15 years after the United States, “they’re doing actually pretty well,” Walker said.

To date, Russia has destroyed about 12 percent of its chemical weapons arsenal, said Viktor Kholstov, deputy head of the Russian Federal Industry Agency and the official at the helm of the national chemical weapons destruction program.  Other recent estimates have been as low as 3 percent.

Chemical weapons remain a “burning issue,” Kholstov said.  “It’s the focus of attention in this country and the world. … The stockpiles are considerable and measures need to be taken to destroy them effectively.”

Russia has been steadily moving toward milestones, and its progress has been recognized by the international community, said James Harrison, a British Defense Ministry counterproliferation official.

At Wednesday’s forum, Harrison was among several diplomatic representatives who reaffirmed their countries’ continued commitment to assist Russia with destroying its chemical weapons.  Russia is receiving considerable financial aid from European nations as well as Canada and the United States as it moves to destroy its blister and nerve agents.

Russian officials estimate that the destruction of the entire stockpile would cost roughly $7 billion, a much lower figure than what the United States expects to spend eliminating its chemical weapons.  Working since 1990, the United States has destroyed about 40 percent of its declared 31,000-ton stockpile and cost estimates for the complete program hover around $35 billion, Walker said.

One Russian disposal facility, Gorny, has finished neutralization of mustard and lewisite.  Operations began in March of this year at the Kambarka facility and in September at the Maradykovsky plant.  “In the past year, real progress has been made,” said OPCW official Sergey Kisseley.

Despite the progress, some observers believe that Russia will find it difficult to meet its intermediate and final disposal goals — 20 percent by April 2007, 45 percent by 2009 and completion three years later.

“We all hope that the Russians will succeed in that,” Harrison said. 

Walker said he expects Moscow will eventually revise its outlook on the 2012 deadline to reflect a more realistic framework similar to that of the United States.

Natalya Kalinina, deputy head of inspection in Russia’s audit bureau, said some of the delays in Russian progress can be attributed to bureaucratic difficulties as the government sought to find its feet in a post-Soviet era.  Troubles with construction at the Shchuchye facility have also contributed to delays.

The original schedule for the remote Siberian site in the Ural Mountains included a 2005 completion date that was later pushed back to 2008.  Work has been suspended as Washington has rejected bids for a disassembly line that it says are well above the $60 million estimated cost.

Kholstov said there is a “good possibility” that the facility would by mid-2008 begin disposal of 5,400 tons of nerve agent.  One European diplomat, who visited the plant in July, called that timeframe “a fairy tale.”  Walker said 2010 is a more realistic startup date.

Even if it ran at full capacity from the day it opened, destruction of all the weapons stored at Shchuchye would likely take more than three years, Walker said.

Russia hopes to complete the Leonidovka disposal facility in the Penza region in 2008. The Kizner and Pochep sites are expected to come online in 2009, an OPCW official said.

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