Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin, shown earlier this month, said yesterday that there is little prospect for U.N. sanctions against Iran anytime soon (Spencer Platt/Getty Images). Iran Activates New Set of Centrifuges Iran advanced its uranium enrichment capability by injecting gas into a second “cascade” of 164 centrifuges last week, the semi-official Iranian Student News Agency reported today (see GSN, Oct. 26; ISNA, Oct. 27). “We are injecting gas into the second cascade, which we installed two weeks ago,” an Iranian official told the news agency.  “We have already exploited the product of the second cascade.” Centrifuges enrich uranium by spinning a gaseous form of the element to separate isotopes of different masses.  News reports did explicitly identify the gas Iran has used in the new cascade. The Iranian official said International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors were present at the centrifuge facility...Full Story

North Korean Nuclear Problems Said Quickly Fixable U.S. analysts believe that the technical problems that seemingly plagued the first North Korean nuclear test could be overcome in a matter of months, The Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 26)...Full Story

U.S. Says Japan Free to Discuss Nuclear Option The United States would not try to stifle any Japanese discussion on reconsidering the nation’s policy against nuclear weapons, U.S. Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer said today (see GSN, Oct. 25)...Full Story

	Friday, October 27, 2006

Al-Qaeda “On the March,” Expert Says The terrorist organization al-Qaeda has survived five years of international efforts to wipe it out, and is reorganizing itself to conduct further strikes, a U.S. counterterrorism expert said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 21). Georgetown University professor Bruce Hoffman dismissed what he called “politicized intelligence” suggesting that al-Qaeda had been seriously weakened since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, The Ottawa Citizen reported. “Just as we underestimated al-Qaeda before 9/11, we risk repeating the same mistake now.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  In fact, al-Qaeda is on the march,” he said during a speech at the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies conference in Ottawa. “We see a vigorous and unbowed organization” which is able to exploit cracks in western security and is using the war in Iraq for its own ends, Hoffman said. A recent string of plots and terrorist attacks illustrate the threat, he said.  These include the July 2005 bombings of the London transit system by al-Qaeda-trained operatives and a unsuccessful 2004 plot by an al-Qaeda cell against a number of U.S. sites (see GSN, Oct. 13). This year’s foiled effort to destroy up to 10 passenger airplanes, another seeming al-Qaeda plot, indicates that terrorists are still willing to strike against a transportation sector that has undergone significant security increases over the last five years (see GSN, Aug. 11). “This alarming development calls into question some of our most fundamental assumptions about terrorist targeting, tactics and capabilities today,” Hoffman said.  “We’re just as vulnerable as ever.  Not only because of Iraq, but because of a revitalized al-Qaeda that continues to plot and plan terrorist attacks as it has done since 9/11” (Ian MacLeod, The Ottawa Citizen, Oct. 27). The Canadian Security Intelligence Service counterterrorism branch views “Al-Qaeda-inspired or -related” extremists as the primary terrorism threat facing the nation, The Globe and Mail reported today. The service monitored 274 individuals and 31 organizations in its 2005-2006 operational year, according to a new government report.  It identified “several previously unknown domestic extremists” who potentially were a terror threat and blocked one extremist from entering the country, the report states. The agency “disrupted a Canadian-based terrorist cell.”  Canadian authorities in June arrested 18 people and seized 3 tons of ammonium nitrate that could have been used in bombs (see GSN, June 12; Jeff Sallot, The Globe and Mail, Oct. 27). Back to top

Iran Activates New Set of Centrifuges Iran advanced its uranium enrichment capability by injecting gas into a second “cascade” of 164 centrifuges last week, the semi-official Iranian Student News Agency reported today (see GSN, Oct. 26; ISNA, Oct. 27). “We are injecting gas into the second cascade, which we installed two weeks ago,” an Iranian official told the news agency.  “We have already exploited the product of the second cascade.” Centrifuges enrich uranium by spinning a gaseous form of the element to separate isotopes of different masses.  News reports did explicitly identify the gas Iran has used in the new cascade. The Iranian official said International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors were present at the centrifuge facility. Earlier this week, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said the agency was aware that the second cascade was ready for use (see GSN, Oct. 24). The latest development appears to emphasize Iran’s defiance of a U.N. Security Council demand to freeze its uranium enrichment program, the Associated Press reported.  Negotiations among the five permanent council members have so far failed reach any agreement on how to enforce that mandate (Associated Press I/New York Times, Oct. 27). Diplomats from the five nations — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — met yesterday in New York to discuss a draft council resolution, the Associated Press reported. Even before the officials could gather, however, Russia had publicly rejected the draft resolution as being too punitive.  U.S. officials argue the document is too lenient on Iran. The draft would bar the sale or supply of nuclear- or missile-related technology to Iran, prevent Iranian nuclear officials from traveling outside their nation, and freeze foreign-located assets of Iranian companies involved with nuclear and missile programs, according to AP. “Our goal is to eliminate the risks of sensitive technologies getting into the hands of Iran until the IAEA clarifies issues of interest to it, while maintaining all possible channels of communication with Iran,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday in Russia before other diplomats met in New York.  “And it seems to me, in this context, the draft resolution clearly does not correspond to those tasks.” A Western effort to placate Russia with an exception to the draft resolution’s prohibitions was evidently inadequate, AP reported. The draft resolution would have allowed Russia to finish building a nuclear power plant for Iran at Bushehr, but the draft would still have prevented Russia from supplying fuel for the reactor, unless Moscow received specific council approval, AP reported (Paul Burkhardt, Associated Press II/International Herald Tribune, Oct. 27). The continuing disagreement among the leading council nations means any sanctions against Iran are a distant prospect, a Russian official said. It would take “weeks and weeks” of negotiations, said Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin, according to the Los Angeles Times. “A lot of work has still to be done,” he said.  “A lot of work.” A Chinese diplomat concurred. “Since the door for diplomatic efforts is still open, why should we rush to sanctions?” Chinese envoy Li Junhua told reporters in New York.  “Sanctions, in our assessment, will not help” (Maggie Farley, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 27). Back to top       North Korean Nuclear Problems Said Quickly Fixable U.S. analysts believe that the technical problems that seemingly plagued the first North Korean nuclear test could be overcome in a matter of months, The Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 26). While Pyongyang reportedly predicted a four-kiloton explosion, the actual blast was measured at less than one kiloton.  That led to widespread belief that the test had not gone off as expected. “North Korea’s nuclear test was a partial success.  They will fix the problem, and maybe try again,” said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security. There are a number of possible causes for the limited explosion, experts told the Times, including low-grade plutonium, detonator problems or imperfect timing. “We can’t say what was the cause or what the device was expected to do,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. These problems do not require an extended period to overcome, the experts said. North Korea “learned a lot from the test, even if it did not detonate fully,” Kimball said. “This was a political test,” he added.  “Whether it performed exactly as designed or not, the world now knows North Korea has nuclear weapons” A four-kiloton device could be placed on a North Korean Nodong missile, which could reach Japan and South Korea and “threaten American assets” in the region, Albright said (Anju Bawa, The Washington Times, Oct. 27). There were questions after the test as to whether it had actually involved a nuclear device, given the low yield of the blast.  South Korea and the United States later said they had confirmed it as an atomic explosion. Following its own analysis, Japan today largely concurred, according to the Associated Press. “We reached the conclusion that the probability that North Korea conducted a nuclear test is extremely high,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki. He said, though, that Japanese aircraft have yet to detect radioactive material that Seoul and Washington used to confirm their conclusions.  Tokyo’s investigation continues, AP reported (Kana Inagaki, Associated Press, Oct. 27). Meanwhile, South Korea expressed concern today that attempts to stop ships heading to or from North Korea could lead to armed conflict with the Stalinist state, Agence France-Presse reported.  Such inspections are authorized under the U.N. Security Council resolution that followed the nuclear test (see GSN, Oct. 16). “The possibility of sparking an armed clash would be very high,” said Vice Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan.  “That’s why we don’t take part in PSI.” The U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative seeks to intercept shipments of WMD material on the high seas.  Washington has been urging Seoul to become more than an observer to the effort (Agence France-Presse I/INQ7.net, Oct. 27). South Korean intelligence chief Kim Seung-kyu yesterday became the third senior government official to offer his resignation in the wake of the nuclear test, AFP reported. Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok and Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung are also preparing to leave their posts. President Roh Moo-hyun “needs new faces to cope with the shocks from the nuclear test,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean studies.  “It would seem to be an irony for the country to carry out its obligations under the U.N.-imposed sanctions with the outgoing ministers” who are connected to South Korea’s program of reconciliation with the North, he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 27). Elsewhere, three U.S. Democratic senators are pushing for quick selection of a policy coordinator on North Korea, the Yonhap News Agency reported today. The position was included in the fiscal 2007 defense authorization bill signed earlier this month by President George W. Bush.  The coordinator is to be appointed within 60 days, and to submit a report within 90 days on U.S. policy regarding North Korea. Inclusion of the position indicates “our belief that the time has come for a fundamental review of U.S. policy towards North Korea,” Senators Harry Reid (D-Nev.), Carl Levin (D-Mich.), and Joseph Biden (D-Del.) stated in an Oct. 20 letter to Bush. Former Defense Secretary William Perry served as policy coordinator during the Clinton administration, Yonhap reported.  “We hope that you will choose to work in a similar fashion, by appointing, as soon as possible, a truly senior statesperson, someone in whom you have confidence, and who possesses the stature to build interagency and bipartisan consensus, to serve as the North Korea coordinator,” the senators said (Yonhap News Agency, Oct. 27). Back to top       U.S. Says Japan Free to Discuss Nuclear Option The United States would not try to stifle any Japanese discussion on reconsidering the nation’s policy against nuclear weapons, U.S. Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer said today (see GSN, Oct. 25). Some senior Japanese officials have recently suggested that leaders should discuss whether to move the nation away from the government’s long-standing “three nuclear principles” policy which prohibits Japan from acquiring nuclear weapons. “What the Japanese talk about with themselves or with their government is up to the Japanese.  It is not up to the United States to decide what is appropriate or not appropriate for the Japanese to say,” Schieffer told reporters in Tokyo today. Still, current Japanese policy is “not inconsistent with American foreign policy goals here,” he added.  “From our standpoint, we have been able to work under those guidelines for a long time and we see no necessity for changing that today” (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 27). Back to top       Global Nuclear Source Database Needed, Experts Say Three U.S. experts this week called for creating an international database of nuclear materials that could be used to trace the source of weapon fuel that is intercepted or used in an attack, The Oakland Tribune reported (see GSN, Oct. 20). “The reason one needs to be able to do this is not just retribution, but if there’s a nuclear explosion the first concern is what the chances are of follow-on nuclear explosions,” said Raymond Jeanloz, a planetary sciences professor at the University of California.  “Where did the material come from and who is involved?” Jeanloz co-wrote an article published yesterday in the journal Nature with former Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory chief Michael May and Jay Davis, former director of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. The Oct. 9 North Korean nuclear test indicates the increasing lack of control on nuclear weapons development and the ease in which a small weapon could be produced for terrorist purposes, according to the Tribune. “If [the North Korean bomb] was designed for export or sales, well, good enough,” Davis said.  “Five hundred tons (of explosive yield) would be a wonderful weapon for a terrorist” (Ian Hoffman, The Oakland Tribune, Oct. 27). Back to top       First Global Initiative Meeting Scheduled The first meeting of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism is scheduled for Oct. 30-31 in Morocco, the U.S. State Department announced (see GSN, July 17). The program, announced by U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin in July, is aimed at preventing terrorists from acquiring material that could be used to make nuclear or radiological weapons. Delegates from 12 countries are expected at next week’s meeting in Rabat. “This first meeting will be an important step in shaping the partner nations’ capacity-building activities undertaken through the framework of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism,” the State Department said (U.S. State Department release, Oct. 26). Back to top       Rice Pledges Support for Indian Nuclear Deal The Bush administration has pledged to seek congressional approval of the pending U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal this year, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 23). In a Wednesday call to new Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to the deal. “She said the administration was talking to senators and would do its best to get their approval in this session,” an Indian official said yesterday. The deal to provide nuclear technology to India requires a change in U.S. and international export rules.  The House of Representatives has approved initial legislation, but the bill remains before the Senate which is now in recess until after the Nov. 7 national elections. The White House hopes the Senate will take up the nuclear deal in its “lame-duck” session following the elections but before the new Congress meets next year and all legislation must be restarted, Reuters reported. Some analysts have predicted that if the Democratic Party regains control of Congress in the elections, then no significant legislation will be permitted during the lame-duck session (Reuters/Gulf Times, Oct. 26). Back to top

Kansas Researchers Prepare Powder Anthrax Vaccine Researchers at the University of Kansas are developing a powdered anthrax vaccine that could be administered through inhalers or a nasal spray rather than injections, The University Daily Kansan reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 28). The vaccine begins as a more stable liquid version of the existing treatment.  A laboratory is able to convert it to powder form.  The new drug would be easier to transport and store than the current vaccine, which must be kept at a fixed temperature. The Kansas vaccine is undergoing the second of four rounds of clinical testing. The U.S. drug stockpile includes one approved vaccine.  The threat of bioterrorism has led to research on a number of new countermeasures. “The University of Kansas has a responsibility to address this public health risk,” said Kevin Boatright, research communications director.  “KU is in a good position to develop that kind of vaccine.” Work on the vaccine began in 2002, the Kansan reported.  It could receive approval from the Food and Drug Administration in four to six years, said pharmaceutical chemistry professor Russ Middaugh.  “I think it has a good chance of working,” he said (Anna Faltermeier, The University Daily Kansan, Oct. 26). Back to top

OPCW Inspects U.S. Chemical Weapons Depot The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons last week conducted its 14th inspection of U.S. chemical weapons stored at the Anniston Army Depot in Alabama (see GSN, May 19). The international body monitors adherence by states parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention. The Anniston depot is in the process of destroying its stockpile of weapons (see GSN, Oct. 25).  All sarin-based munitions have been eliminated, leaving weapons and bulk containers filled with VX nerve agent and mustard blister agent. “The inspection was very successful,” Lt Col. Phillip Trued, commander of Anniston Chemical Activity, said in a press release.  “In addition, the team appreciated our Southern hospitality and the professional manner in which ‘Team Anniston’ conducted itself during the inspection” (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Oct. 26). Back to top

U.S. Wants Japan to Boost Missile Defense Policy The United States has urged Japan to make a greater political commitment to the two nations’ joint missile defense efforts, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Oct. 12). Japan has decided to purchase U.S.-developed missile interceptors, but Washington would like to see Japan demonstrate a greater willingness to use those defenses, according to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer. Japan’s pacifist constitution could restrict it from engaging missiles that are not targeted at Japanese territory, AP reported. “The United States would like an answer to whether (Japan) would shoot down that missile,” Schieffer told reporters today.  “Japan’s answer will be critical to the future of the alliance” (Hiroko Tabuchi, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Oct. 27). Back to top

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