This site at Kilchu, North Korea, is one being watched for possible nuclear test activity (Getty Images). North Korea ‘More or Less Ready’ for Nuclear Weapon Test North Korea appears to be able now to conduct a nuclear test, a Chinese official said today, but could be persuaded to delay detonation with concessions from the United States (see GSN, Oct. 5). “They are more or less ready,” the official told Reuters. He did not say when the test might occur, but said it would happen 2,000 meters inside a coal mine...Full Story

World Powers to Discuss Iran Strategy Tonight Foreign ministers from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany plan to meet tonight in London to discuss the next stage of the Iranian nuclear crisis, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 5)...Full Story

	Friday, October 6, 2006

North Korea ‘More or Less Ready’ for Nuclear Weapon Test North Korea appears to be able now to conduct a nuclear test, a Chinese official said today, but could be persuaded to delay detonation with concessions from the United States (see GSN, Oct. 5). “They are more or less ready,” the official told Reuters. He did not say when the test might occur, but said it would happen 2,000 meters inside a coal mine. While North Korea could conduct the test in one of thousands of mine shafts, South Korean newspapers reported that three or four sites were being monitored closely by nearby countries.  One likely site, according to the Hankook Ilbo newspaper, is in the North Hamkyung province.  ABC News in August reported that a U.S. intelligence agency had detected suspicious activity at the site (see GSN, Aug. 18). The newspaper identified several other potential test sites, Reuters reported. “Finding the test site beforehand would be akin to finding a needle in the Han River,” the newspaper said. Pyongyang “may not necessarily test” if the United States can be persuaded to eliminate sanctions and begin direct talks, the Chinese official said (Lim/Buckley, Reuters, Oct. 6). North Korea is more likely to conduct an underground test than an atmospheric detonation, in order to avoid spreading radiation and potentially giving away details of its nuclear device, Agence France-Presse reported. “The current thinking is that they have a horizontal tunnel in the side of a hill,” said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org. “If you have a lot of venting, you give technical intelligence to enemies as to how it works,” he said.  “You want to have many hundreds of feet of rock above you and you might have to tunnel in over 1,000 feet to get that rock above you” (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse I, Oct. 6). The U.N. Security Council was expected today to approve a joint statement urging North Korea not to conduct the test, AFP reported. A Japanese official, following talks in Washington, expressed doubt about the international community’s ability to stop Pyongyang. “We discussed the possibility that the test could occur this weekend,” said Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi. “They will probably go ahead and do it as they had that tone in their declaration.  It possibly means they are already very prepared,” he added. The Security Council statement would “urge the D.P.R.K. not to undertake such a test and to refrain from any action that might aggravate tension.”  It would also push Pyongyang “to return immediately to the six-party talks without precondition and work toward the expeditious implementation” of the September 2005 deal, in which North Korea agreed in principle to give up its nuclear weapons program in return for energy and security incentives. The statement is not likely to contain the threat of sanctions under Chapter 7 of the U.N. charter, AFP reported.  Japan and the United States had pushed for such language.  “I do not think at this stage it is something all members can agree on,” said Kenzo Oshima, current chairman of the Security Council (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, Oct. 6). The White House is preparing new sanctions that it would use against North Korea in the event of a nuclear test, the New York Times reported. They include pushing China and South Korea to halt energy supplies and trade to North Korea, which the two countries have refused to do in the past, and potentially halting and inspecting cargo ships entering and leaving the country. “If the test happens, all the arguments are over,” said one senior Bush administration official.  “We’ll end up going to full-scale sanctions; the only debate is what ‘full-scale’ means.” Most North Korean supplies come though China and Russia, which have resisted talk of sanctions.  “Without leveraging the Chinese to put firm press on, very little can be accomplished by the U.S. through sanctions,” said Asia specialist Kurt Campbell of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. President George W. Bush in the next few days plans to ask Chinese President Hu Jintao to send an envoy to Pyongyang with a warning against a nuclear test, the Times reported.  U.S. officials questioned whether such an initiative would prove successful. “The last time the Chinese did this after the missile tests (see GSN, July 5) their delegation was left cooling their heels for days,” said one senior official (David Sanger, New York Times, Oct. 6). U.S. military action is not likely to be on the menu following a nuclear test, AFP reported. The United States does not know where Pyongyang houses its plutonium or uranium enrichment technology, said Robert Einhorn, a former secretary of state for nonproliferation. “What would we attack?” he said.  “We don’t have a clue where it is.” There are also significant dangers to an air strike against North Korea, one expert said.  Pyongyang could use artillery and chemical munitions against Seoul.  The chance exists also that North Korea has missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, they said. “North Korea may well have nuclear warheads on tops of missiles today,” said RAND Corp. North Korea expert Bruce Bennett.  “And if we go and start attacking … nuclear facilities that they are producing plutonium at, they may well decide that their best response is to launch a nuclear missile at Seoul or Tokyo or someplace like that” (Jim Mannion, Agence France-Presse III/Yahoo!News, Oct. 50. Back to top       World Powers to Discuss Iran Strategy Tonight Foreign ministers from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany plan to meet tonight in London to discuss the next stage of the Iranian nuclear crisis, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 5). Efforts over the past few weeks by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana have failed to persuade Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program and other sensitive nuclear activities.  The U.N. Security Council and the six nations gathering tonight have demanded such a freeze. The United States is pushing for the council to enforce its own demand by initiating a series of incremental sanctions against Iran.  Washington faces opposition on the council and plans to seek common ground this evening, the Post reported.  “We’ve done the Solana effort and now we’ll have to move to sanctions,” U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday.  “That’s the ministers’ role.” Still, it appears unlikely the council would adopt any sanctions in the near future. “I believe that until diplomatic means are exhausted, sanctions would be too radical,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in Warsaw.  “We have to do everything to persuade Iran to begin negotiations. … The issue needs to be resolved diplomatically” (Robin Wright, Washington Post, Oct. 6). If the ministers can agree to a common strategy, they could try to implement it in the Security Council as early as next week, Agence France-Presse reported. “I expect the Iranian dossier to re-emerge in New York in the course of the next week,” British Ambassador to the United Nations Emyr Jones Parry said yesterday (Agence France-Presse/Sharewatch.com, Oct. 5). Back to top       European Parliament Urges India to Sign NPT The European Parliament remains ambivalent about supporting the U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal as long as India remains outside the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a top parliament official said today (see GSN, Oct. 2). “The European Parliament expects India to sign the NPT,” said Parliament President Josep Borrell Fontelles.  “It will help a lot to establish international civilian nuclear cooperation with India.” This year, the Bush administration has sought domestic and international support for its plan to provide nuclear technology to India in exchange for New Delhi opening the civilian portion of its nuclear industry to international monitoring. “We support India’s growing need for civilian nuclear energy,” Fontelles said.  “But Europe is very worried about Iran and the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology.” While France and the United Kingdom have expressed strong support for the planned U.S.-Indian deal, Finland and other Nordic nations have urged caution in providing nuclear technology to non-NPT countries, the Indian news service Daily News and Analysis reported (Daily News and Analysis, Oct. 6). Back to top

Livermore Pushes Ahead with Biodefense Lab Legal challenges have not slowed efforts at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California to open its new biological defense laboratory, the Contra Costa Times reported yesterday (see GSN, May 30). The new portable Biosafety Level 3 laboratory has gone through four safety reviews and is expected to be ready to open next month, officials said. “We believe that there’s a critical need for the facility, and we’re doing our best to get it going,” said laboratory spokesman Steve Wampler. A watchdog organization on Tuesday sought an emergency court order halting work on the facility.  Deadly pathogens could be released from the laboratory in the event of an earthquake, accident or terrorist attack, according to Tri-Valley Citizens Against a Radioactive Environment. “The move is very dangerous because they’re proposing to do operations without what we consider the proper level of (environmental) review,” said group president Marylia Kelley. The group is also appealing a federal judge’s rejection of its lawsuit against the facility.  Tri-Valley CAREs and Nuclear Watch of New Mexico argued that operating a biological laboratory within the top-secret nuclear site could lead other countries to put similar operations beyond the reach of international nonproliferation inspectors, the Times reported. Lawrence Livermore has been heavily involved in development of genetic probes that could be used to detect anthrax and plague germs, among others.  More than 30 large U.S. cities use those probes in biodetectors (Ian Hoffman, Contra Costa Times, Oct. 5). Back to top

Poland Pledges to Consider Russian Views on Placement of U.S. Missile Defense Installation Polish officials have promised to consider Russia’s position when considering whether to allow the United States to place a missile defense installation within its borders, Interfax reported today (see GSN, Sept. 22). “The Polish leadership has confirmed that no decision on the deployment of an antimissile defense system has been made and promised to formulate its position transparently and take into account Russia’s interests,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in Warsaw yesterday. Poland and the Czech Republic are believed to be the lead candidates to house U.S. missile interceptors.  Russia has repeatedly expressed its opposition to placement of a U.S. missile shield site in Europe (Interfax, Oct. 6). Back to top       Japanese Leader Backs More Missile Defense New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to increase the pace of joint missile defense activities with the United States, United Press International reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 5). Abe, who took office last week, is expected to promote efforts for Japanese companies to develop missile defense technology, such as the Airborne Laser, and to produce equipment for the field, such as Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missile interceptors, according to UPI. Japanese interest in the field could provide some insurance for the missile defense industry, which could see setbacks if next month’s U.S. elections bring Democrats to power in Congress, UPI reported (Martin Sieff, United Press International/MonstersandCritics.com, Oct. 5). Back to top       Canadian Senate Panel Backs U.S. Missile Defense A Canadian Senate committee yesterday urged the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper to reverse its predecessor’s decision against participating in the U.S. missile defense, the National Post reported (see GSN, July 7). “It is in our national interest to cooperate with America to defend the continent,” the Standing National Security and Defense Committee said in a 323-page report on defense policy.  “Supporting [the Ballistic Missile Defense Program] would help do that.” The panel rejected the argument that the missile defense program would lead to a heightened arms race.  The missile shield is intended purely for defense and is “not a threat to any other nation.” Canada has not been asked to provide funding or bases for the system, lawmakers said.  They also expressed their belief in the inevitability of the weaponization of space. “To some critics, the idea of putting weapons in space is unthinkable,” the report states.  “To this committee, what is really unthinkable is waiting so long that potential adversaries are allowed to gain an advantage in space that might be insurmountable.  The weaponization of space could become the most important security issue of this century” (Natalie Alcoba, National Post, Oct. 6). Back to top

Nuclear Smuggling Seizures Have Grown Since 2002 Known attempts to smuggle radioactive materials have doubled since 2002, raising concerns that terrorists could manufacture radiological weapons, or “dirty bombs,” the London Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 22). Statistics released last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency indicate that traffickers have been caught trying to smuggle radioactive material 300 times since 2002.  Last year saw 103 attempts, including 16 efforts to smuggle uranium or plutonium, according to the Times. “A dirty bomb is something that needs to be taken seriously.  We need to be prepared for anything because anything could happen,” said agency Deputy Director General Olli Heinonen.  “Terrorists look for the weakest link.  We need to be alert and we need to be prepared.” Data for this year is still being collected, but it will include the finding of a small amount of highly enriched uranium in Germany, the Times reported (Lewis Smith, The Times, Oct. 6). Back to top

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