U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, shown yesterday in the West Bank, suggested that the United States could force a U.N. Security Council vote on sanctioning Iran (Abbas Momani/Getty Images). U.S. Could Drop Bid for Consensus on Iran Sanctions The United States is close to abandoning efforts to gain consensus among U.N. Security Council leaders on penalizing Iran for refusing to curb its nuclear activities, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 29). The five permanent council members and Germany have been negotiating heavily over the past three months to agree on measures to persuade Iran to heed a council demand to freeze its uranium enrichment program.  ..Full Story

OPCW Continues to Press Treaty Requirements By Chris Schneidmiller Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — States parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention next week are expected to continue pressing fellow member nations to meet their obligations under the treaty, rather than seeking penalties for those that have yet to do so (see GSN, Nov. 16, 2005)...Full Story

New DHS Ads for Ready.gov Play Down Terrorism By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Homeland Security Department has rolled out a new crop of commercials designed make families aware of the need to prepare for catastrophic emergencies including the aftermath of terrorism (see GSN, Sept. 7)...Full Story

	Friday, December 1, 2006

New DHS Ads for Ready.gov Play Down Terrorism By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Homeland Security Department has rolled out a new crop of commercials designed make families aware of the need to prepare for catastrophic emergencies including the aftermath of terrorism (see GSN, Sept. 7). However, the new public service announcements never mention terrorism as they direct viewers to the government disaster preparedness Web site Ready.gov. While the Web site’s focus was explicitly on terrorism when it was launched in 2003, Homeland Security officials said the agency is now moving toward an “all hazards” campaign. The new ads feature families realizing during a documentary-style interview that they are generally unprepared to deal with an emergency situation.  They stumble into that realization with a smile, seemingly bemused at their own failure to think about preparedness.  Each commercial is set to the same jaunty, slightly folksy guitar tune. The televisions spots, produced free of charge by the New York firm BBDO along with the Advertising Council, are a stark contrast to a more alarmist tack taken in the past. An older Spanish language commercial, still featured on the Ad Council Web site, is much darker in tone and focused directly on terrorism.  Its approach echoes the rhetoric used by former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge when he announced the Ready.gov campaign in 2003. He appeared on CNN to warn Americans of the unpredictable nature of terrorism and to remind them to make an emergency kit that included duct tape and premeasured plastic sheeting to create a home shelter from chemical weapons. “The next attack could happen to any community at any time,” Ridge said then.  “Terrorists force us to make a choice:  We can be afraid or we can be ready.  American’s aren’t afraid, and we will be ready.” In the Spanish-language public service announcement two angels — an element the Homeland Security Department said was specific to the Spanish ads because research showed “it’s something that would appeal to Hispanics” — look out over a darkened city from a high hillside. “They can’t see the threat, so they don’t feel the danger,” the first angel says, going on to remind the second angel that “the crab that is not aware of the tide is swept out to sea.” An announcer then tells viewers in Spanish: “Even if you don’t think about it, the possibility of a terrorist attack is real.  Are you ready?” The older commercials for Ready.gov were “more terrorism-focused,” said Homeland Security spokeswoman Joanna Gonzalez.  The Spanish-language advertisements, like their English-language counterparts, are being redone, she said. The new concepts are part of a long look at what is needed to actually persuade Americans to plan for the emergencies, including terrorism:  “What do we need in an advertisement to get someone to actually act?” Gonzalez said.  “You need a motivator.  These ads have real families.” Along with the commercials, the Web site itself has changed drastically.  In 2003, the main page of the site declared “Terrorism forces us to make a choice. … Don’t be afraid.  Be ready.”  There are links to information about what might happen in the event of biological, chemical, nuclear and radiological attacks. In the Web site’s most recent iteration in 2006, the word terrorism does not appear on the site’s home page.  Instead, a smiling family sits on their porch.  Families are advised to “Prepare.  Plan.  Stay informed.” Information about what to do in the event of fires, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes has been added the tips about what to do in the event of WMD attacks. Michael Stebbins, a scientist with the Federation of American Scientists, applauded the shift.  His organization has been critical of Ready.gov in the past, and even created an alternative site called ReallyReady.org that the group says has more complete information on preparedness. “I think the move away from terrorism probably reflects the fact that it’s not resonating as well anymore and people don’t want to be scared anymore,” Stebbins said.  “It’s better to reach out and appeal to them on a different level.” “Talking about terrorism events specifically only scares somebody and it actually misses the point,” he said, adding that the real goal is spurring someone to devise an emergency plan. The new ads went out to television stations in mid-November, but it is impossible to know yet when they are going to be televised, said Ellyn Fisher, an Ad Council spokeswoman.  The Ready.gov site has registered more than 1.7 billion hits since it was launched. A survey in February 2004 found that the percentage of parents who stock emergency supplies had increased from 28 percent to 40 percent since the beginning of the campaign.  The number of families that had created an emergency plan had increased from 17 to 27 percent. Back to top

Pentagon Finishing Plans for Anti-WMD Units The U.S. Defense Department concept of operations for new units trained to track and neutralize weapons of mass destruction should be finished in a matter of months, Inside the Pentagon reported yesterday (see GSN, July 20). Details are being finalized on the units’ anticipated capabilities and deployment locations, along with the number of teams that would be established, according to Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, head of U.S. Strategic Command. The teams are expected to be a component of the Pentagon’s “Concept Plan 8099 for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction,” a defense source said.  The document has not yet been approved.  It was not known whether Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld would sign off on the plan before his resignation becomes effective. The Pentagon seeks to strengthen nonproliferation, counterproliferation and consequence management of weapons of mass destruction, according to Inside the Pentagon.  The teams would boost counterproliferation efforts, which involve elimination of unconventional weapons possessed by enemy nations or nonstate groups. There is “a focus on our ability … to go out and find it, close on it and eliminate it,” Cartwright said.  “That’s the higher end of this activity.” Locating WMD material is a “challenge,” he said.  “It’s not something that you go, ‘Oh, that’s a bioweapons,’ as you walk down the street. … These are not things that you’re (going to) sense easily.” The difficulty of locating this material is mixed into questions that have yet to be answered in planning the new teams.  These include determining the right combination of service people and scientists, access to experts, and whether those experts need to be on-site to make assessments of materials. The speed at which the units would have to reach sites of WMD activity around the world also will be addressed in the plan, Cartwright said. “How quickly do you have to … close them?  Is it OK to do it in a day, or do you need to be able to do this in hours of minutes?” he said.  If it is the latter, “that means you base them forward in some way, or you change the tools you give the team.” The Pentagon is also considering increasing the capabilities of allied nations to detect weapons of mass destruction inside their borders, Cartwright said.  That could include providing detection equipment or helping with border security (Sebastian Sprenger, Inside the Pentagon, Nov. 30). Back to top

U.S. Could Drop Bid for Consensus on Iran Sanctions The United States is close to abandoning efforts to gain consensus among U.N. Security Council leaders on penalizing Iran for refusing to curb its nuclear activities, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 29). The five permanent council members and Germany have been negotiating heavily over the past three months to agree on measures to persuade Iran to heed a council demand to freeze its uranium enrichment program.  The talks have been marked by disagreements between the four Western nations, which want to impose travel and trade sanctions, and China and Russia, which back less stringent measures. If no agreement can be reached by the end of the year, the United States would offer a resolution to force the reluctant states to take a public stand, an unidentified senior Bush administration official said. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also suggested that she did not have infinite patience. “Unity is not an end to itself,” she told reporters during a visit to Jordan.  “I’m all for maintaining unity, but I’m also all for action” (Helene Cooper, New York Times, Dec. 1). “The goal is to get a resolution that makes sense in terms of convincing the Iranians that their behavior is not acceptable in the international community,” she added.  “We have to do something” (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Dec. 1). Back to top       U.S. Exaggerates Chinese Nuclear Threat, Report Says The United States has exaggerated the nuclear threat posed by China to justify its own weapons acquisition programs, two nongovernmental nuclear analysis groups charged in a report issued yesterday (see GSN, May 24). “The Pentagon has been sounding the alarm about China’s nuclear intentions for a long time, but our analysis shows that they are overstating the threat,” report co-author Robert Norris, a nuclear analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a release yesterday. “Now that the Soviet Union is gone, the military needs a new threat to justify buying new missiles, destroyers, submarines and fighter planes.  So they’re hyping China.” The report specifically criticizes U.S. portrayals of China’s long-range missile and submarine capabilities.  U.S. assessments have warned that China has a growing number of missiles that could reach the United States and that Chinese submarines are an expanding threat. In fact, the report says, Chinese submarines rarely go to sea and the one submarine capable of carrying nuclear missiles has never been fully operational.  Furthermore, Chinese strategic missile forces are growing far more slowly than asserted by U.S. officials, the report says (Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, Dec. 1). The head of bipartisan commission on China, however, supported official U.S. assessments, Reuters reported today. The Pentagon has produced a “realistic picture of what China is doing in the nuclear arena,” said Larry Wortzel, head of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (see GSN, Nov. 17). China has been developing new generations of mobile missiles, advanced re-entry vehicles and “countermeasures to make its nuclear force a more serious threat,” he told Reuters (Reuters/New York Times, Dec. 1). Back to top       Rice Urges Congress to Drop “Conditions” on Legislation to Approve U.S.-Indian Nuclear Trade Deal Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has expressed concern about measures the U.S. Congress might attach to its approval of the U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Nov. 20). The nuclear pact, announced last year by President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, calls for the United States to provide nuclear technology and materials in exchange for India opening its civilian nuclear facilities to international oversight.  To take effect, the deal requires changes to U.S. and international nuclear trade rules. Both the U.S. House and Senate have passed their own versions of legislation enabling the deal to proceed, but they still need to craft a single bill from the two (see GSN, Nov. 17). The Senate version calls on India to “fully and actively” support U.S. policies to prevent Iran from developing nuclear-weapon usable technology and also bars India from receiving technology to produce nuclear reactor fuel. In a letter to lawmakers, Rice urged dropping those measures from the final bill, saying that they could be viewed “as adding additional conditions” and they “could reopen the terms of the initiative to renegotiating.” Deal proponent Representative Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.) agreed. “There’s been a consistent sense by the Indian side that there’s been movement of the goal posts” since the two leaders announced the agreement, Crowley said.  “The failure to follow through on the reached agreement between the two countries would send a very negative message to India.” Critics protested Rice’s efforts to strip the Senate measures. “It’s not a good day for nuclear nonproliferation,” said Representative Ed Markey (D-Mass.).  “Apparently, Secretary Rice is allergic to even these few nonproliferation fig leaves which have allowed the flawed agreement to proceed” (Foster Klug, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Dec. 1). Back to top       British Nuclear Plans to be Published Next Week The British government is scheduled Monday to publish its proposals on the future of the Trident nuclear missile system, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 21). The Blair administration is expected to support replacement of the submarine-launched missiles, according to AFP.  Observers say replacing the Trident would take years and cost up to $46 billion. Prime Minister Tony Blair and his anticipated successor, Finance Minister Gordon Brown, could face strong opposition to the plan from lawmakers, including those from their own Labor Party (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 30). Lawmakers are concerned about the cost of the project and fear that it would provide protection against Cold War threats rather than the dangers today of international terrorism, the Associated Press reported. “There are very strong views which dissent from the government position, including those of distinguished military men and those in the intelligence community,” said Labor Party lawmaker John Trickett.  “We are expecting a very vigorous debate, but it seems the opposition will side with the government.” A Conservative Party motion this week said the United Kingdom “should continue to possess a strategic nuclear deterrent as long as other countries have nuclear weapons.”  The motion received support from 35 lawmakers. The United Kingdom’s four nuclear-powered submarines can each carry up to 16 Trident missiles, AP reported.  The submarines’ operational life spans are due to end in 2024. There are likely to be several proposals offered regarding missile delivery systems.  Land or air-based systems pose a “significantly greater technological risk,” according to defense procurement minister Paul Drayson (David Stringer, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Nov. 30). Back to top       North Korea Talks Could Occur in January Six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear program could resume in January, new South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon said today (see GSN, Nov. 30). Officials from the participating nations had earlier expressed hopes that the negotiations, stalled for more than a year, could resume this month. “North Korea may require more time for its in-depth analysis of the situation following the just-ended working-level contacts in Beijing and U.S. President George W. Bush’s changed attitude,” Song said, according to the Associated Press. “We’ll strive hard to resume the six-party talks in December, but they could be delayed to next month,” he said (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Dec. 1). Back to top       Flexibility Needed on Nuclear Crises, ElBaradei Says The international community should consider a range of options in dealing with the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today (see GSN, Nov. 28). “Sanctions alone do not solve issues,” he said in Tokyo, according to Agence France-Presse. “The focus in addition to sanctions should be on how to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table, how to make sure that North Korea shows the necessary flexibility, and ultimately to be able to succeed in defusing the nuclear crisis in North Korea,” ElBaradei said.  “The same applies to the situation in Iran.” The U.N. Security Council sanctioned Pyongyang following its Oct. 9 nuclear test, and is considering action against Tehran over its refusal to freeze uranium enrichment activities (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Dec. 1). The purpose of Iran’s nuclear program remains unclear, ElBaradei said yesterday, according to ITAR-Tass. “As for the nature of the Iranian nuclear program, it is still questionable,” he said (ITAR-Tass, Nov. 30). Back to top       Japan Tells IAEA It Will Not Seek Nuclear Weapons Japan pledged today to the International Atomic Energy Agency today that it would not develop nuclear weapons, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 30). “Japan has been working to strengthen nonproliferation and disarmament efforts and there is no change in our three-point non-nuclear policy,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki told IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei in Tokyo. The policy forbids Japan from producing or stockpiling nuclear weapons, and from allowing other countries to base such weapons within its borders.  Foreign Minister Taro Aso, who met yesterday with ElBaradei, has led calls for debate on the policy (Agence France-Presse/Channel NewsAsia, Dec. 1). ElBaradei said he saw no problem with discussion of the issue, given North Korea’s recent nuclear test, the Associated Press reported. “I think it is legitimate for any country to discuss the implications on its security when a country in the region has developed nuclear weapons,” he said.  “I don’t think Japan in any way is trying to move to [becoming] a nuclear weapons state.  That has been affirmed by the prime minister,” ElBaradei added (Kana Inagaki, Associated Press/Globe and Mail, Dec. 1). Back to top

OPCW Continues to Press Treaty Requirements By Chris Schneidmiller Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — States parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention next week are expected to continue pressing fellow member nations to meet their obligations under the treaty, rather than seeking penalties for those that have yet to do so (see GSN, Nov. 16, 2005). The 11th Session of the Conference of States Parties, scheduled for Dec. 5-8 in The Hague, marks the end of the one-year extension given to nations to fulfill the requirements of treaty Article 7. Article 7 requires nations to take seven distinct “national implementation measures.”  These include developing domestic legislation and regulations banning actions prohibited by the pact, such as development, possession, use and proliferation of chemical weapons.  Countries must also designate a national authority to track civilian chemical activity and to operate as a point of contact for the treaty’s oversight body and other member countries.  In fall 2005, dozens of countries had yet to meet one or more of the Article 7 requirements.  The conference last year, in a follow-up to its 2003 plan of action on national implementation, called on all nations to take necessary steps to meet those obligations and to report regularly to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons regarding their efforts and pitfalls encountered during the process.  States that had already met the treaty requirements were urged to provide continued assistance to their counterparts. The OPCW Executive Council last month recommended that states parties maintain the extension for another year, but with heightened oversight of noncomplying nations, said agency spokesman Peter Kaiser.  The agency’s Technical Secretariat would continue to aid countries, while tracking developments related to Article 7 and preparing a comprehensive progress report on its implementation.  The Executive Council would submit the report and recommendations at the 2007 conference. The head of the Executive Council would also correspond directly with noncomplying countries to press them to meet their commitments. “The political temperature will rise,” Kaiser said today in a telephone interview.  “It boils down to you don’t want to be in this situation next year.” As of Thursday, 47 percent of the 181 treaty member states had met their full obligations under Article 7 and other components of the pact, Kaiser said.  That is up from 43 percent at this time last year when there were 175 treaty members. All but nine of the treaty states have designated a national authority, up from 147 last year. The number of nations with comprehensive legislation in place has risen from 59 to 72.  That is roughly 40 percent of states parties, which is up from the 34 percent last year. These measures are of crucial importance for the implementation of the treaty, Kaiser said.  Without them, the organization would not be able to conduct routine inspections or require companies to open their sites for investigation.  Nations would not be able to monitor the trade in chemicals. “The law is the basis for our work, so without the legislation, we cannot work,” Kaiser said in a recent e-mail message.  “If we cannot work, the ban cannot be upheld and verified.” Noncompliance is highest among developing nations which might lack the bureaucratic and legal capabilities to take the required measures, said Paul Walker, director of the Legacy Program at Global Green USA.  For example, Africa has the lowest rate — 33 percent — of nations that have submitted notifications regarding implementation of legislative and administrative measures. “I think on the whole it’s bureaucratic.  It’s not lack of will, it’s lack of technical and legal ability,” Walker said. Another expert argued that some countries simply choose not to make the effort. “It may be time to consider some negative incentives for countries that have the capacity but just have not bothered to meet this requirement,” John Gilbert, a senior science fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, said by e-mail. Back to top       Anniston Rockets Could Catch Fire Some rockets set for disposal beginning Monday at the Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Alabama are likely to catch fire during the destruction process, The Anniston Star reported today (see GSN, Nov. 15). The facility since June has been incinerating M55 rockets carrying VX nerve agent.  There are 17,500 of those rockets remaining, 5,000 of which belong to a type that has burst into flames occasionally while being cut into pieces at disposal sites in Pine Bluff, Ark., and Umatilla, Ore. (see GSN, July 25). The fires are believed to ignite when the cutting blade strikes a shell in which nitroglycerin from the rocket propellant system has leaked to the surface of the weapon the Star reported.  All the fires have been minor, and none have escaped the explosive containment rooms in which the weapons are cut. While similar fires are expected at Anniston, they are not expected to pose a significant problem, said Army project site manager Tim Garrett. “We really don’t anticipate having any problems with rocket fires,” he said (Ben Cunningham, The Anniston Star, Dec. 1). Back to top

Gates Backs Missile Defense Plans Defense Secretary-designate Robert Gates plans to continue Pentagon support for deploying U.S. missile defenses before they are completely tested, the Washington Post reported this week (see GSN, June 26). The United States has fielded Ground-based Midcourse Defense missile interceptors in Alaska and California before testing them, depending on a strategy of testing the systems while deploying them (see GSN, Sept. 5). “North Korea and Iran continue to develop longer range missiles and are determined to pursue weapons of mass destruction,” Gates said in documents he has prepared for his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee. “In this regard, defenses with a limited operational capability, at least initially, are better than no defenses,” he added (Thomas Ricks, Washington Post, Nov. 29). Back to top

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