Russia opposes a key clause in a draft resolution for the International Atomic Energy Agency Feb. 2 emergency board session on Iran’s controversial nuclear activities, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 26). The confidential draft encourages the Security Council to “consider making clear to Iran that outstanding questions” can be resolved by responding to agency calls for a nuclear freeze, according to AFP. Russia objects to that clause because Tehran’s failure to meet the demand would open the door to Security Council action, said a senior diplomat. “The Russians object that if the council is empowered to take any sort of action, that this will go further, an automatism that will set off a chain of reactions” under the U.N. Charter, said the diplomat. “If Iran does not do what the resolution tells them, then this could lead to sanctions, or even more,” meaning military action, the diplomat said. Russia wants the change the clause to have the IAEA Board of Governors inform the Security Council about the situation without taking any action, according to the diplomat. A second diplomat said Moscow wants a “two-step” process under which the Security Council would first be informed of the matter, with time allowed for further diplomacy until the next regular IAEA board meeting, scheduled for March 6. U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday expressed support for a Russian compromise offer to enrich uranium for Iran, but said the United States would continue its push for Security Council referral. “The Russians came up with the idea and I support it. And the reason why I think it makes sense is because I do believe people ought to be allowed to have civilian nuclear power,” Bush said. “However, I don’t believe nontransparent regimes that threaten the security of the world should be allowed to gain the technologies necessary to make a weapon. And the Iranians have said, ‘We want a weapon.’ And it’s not in the world’s interests that they have a weapon,” he added (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse I/IranMania.com, Jan. 26). White House spokesman Scott McClellan acknowledged yesterday afternoon that Bush misspoke regarding Iran’s stated intentions for its nuclear program, the New York Times reported today. “He was referring to their behavior,” McClellan said. “Our concern is their intention is to develop a nuclear weapon under the guise of a civilian program.” Bush’s misstatement could, however, firm up beliefs among IAEA board members that he is convinced that Iran is pursuing nuclear arms, according to the Times. Meanwhile, experts have said that working out the details of the complex Russian compromise proposal could take months or longer, according to the Times. The size of the program and the level of involvement that would be given to Iranian engineers are among the major questions that remain to be answered. In addition, Russian and European officials have said the proposal makes no economic or technological sense from Tehran’s perspective, while the United States continues to oppose even Iran’s uranium conversion operation. “There are those who would argue that conversion is not proliferation-significant because it does not produce weapons-grade material, but from our perspective, conversion is another step forward to acquire enrichment capability,” Gregory Schulte, U.S. ambassador the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Wednesday (Sanger/Sciolino, New York Times, Jan. 27). U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday expressed impatience with Iran’s newfound interest in Russia’s proposal, Reuters reported. Tehran is “doing nothing but trying to throw up chaff so that they are not referred to the Security Council and people shouldn’t let them get away with it. ... The time (for a formal referral) has come,” she said. “The time for talking outside the Security Council is over,” Rice said. She added that, although China and Russia remain opposed to Security Council action against Iran, both consider its nuclear ambitions a “very serious issue.” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton told CNN that “the Iranians have been very effective in using their oil and natural gas to persuade China, India and other countries to their side. We have to correct that” (Carol Giacomo, Reuters, Jan. 27). Iran, meanwhile, softened its support for the Russian proposal, AFP reported. “The Russian proposal is not sufficient for Iran’s nuclear energy needs,” top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said today. Larijani added, however, that “one cannot say that it is a negative proposal.” “We had a round of talks over it and we will do the next round,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, Jan. 27). A top EU official said yesterday that the European Commission was “rather skeptical” about Tehran’s interest in the proposal, AFP reported. “As for the renewed interest in the Russian ideas which foresee uranium enrichment outside Iran, given its previous rejection, I think we are rather skeptical,” said External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferreo-Waldner. “It is difficult to believe that this is not just a delaying tactic,” she said (Agence France-Presse III, Jan. 26). IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said yesterday he remained hopeful that the proposal could help resolve the situation, AFP reported. The Russian proposal could help Iran go through a “rehabilitation period” in which it would forgo uranium enrichment, ElBaradei said. “Iran needs to be assured that they can use nuclear power for electricity but the international community needs to be assured that the Iranian program is exclusively for peace purposes,” he said (Agence France-Presse III/IranMania.com, Jan. 26).
Talks between top Indian and U.S. officials last week have raised doubts that a draft nuclear technology sharing agreement would be ready for congressional consideration ahead of a state visit to India by President George W. Bush in early March, the Financial Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 26). “Certainly we intend to finish the agreement before the president’s trip, but we are not at the stage where we could call it complete,” one senior Bush administration official told the Times. “Not much progress was made in closing the gap between the two sides,” a U.S. official in Washington said, referring to last week’s talks. “We are waiting for a new proposal from the Indians in the next week to 10 days. It won’t happen [in time for the trip] if there is no movement.” India has yet to present a detailed plan for separating its civil and military nuclear facilities, the Times reported. No agreement has been reached on whether India’s civilian nuclear sites would permanently fall under international safeguards, among other issues. “Congress might like India and want to help India, but it has to be convinced that making this exception for India will strengthen the nonproliferation regime. Right now the drafts just don’t cut the mustard. If there isn’t a clear majority of its facilities under inspection, it will be hard to sell,” said a U.S. official in New Delhi. Differences remain over safeguards for India’s breeder reactor program, which could produce weapon-grade plutonium, said George Perkovich, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It is hard to see anything meaningful emerging. The talks weren’t a step forward or backwards. We are kind of standing there. The administration overestimated their power and logic and underestimated the problems and they are panicking,” he said (Daniel/Johnson, Financial Times, Jan. 26). India yesterday protested U.S. Ambassador David Mulford’s suggestion that any deal was dependent on New Delhi backing Washington’s effort to refer Iran’s controversial nuclear activities to the U.N. Security Council, the Associated Press reported. Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran told Mulford that his remarks “were inappropriate and not conducive to building a strong partnership between our two independent democracies,” the External Affairs Ministry said in a statement. “India’s vote on any possible resolution on the Iran nuclear issue at the (International Atomic Energy Agency) would be determined by India’s own judgment of the merits of the case,” the Foreign Ministry quoted Saran as telling Mulford (Ashok Sharma, Associated Press/San Jose Mercury News, Jan. 26).
By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — In the latest twist in the Bush administration’s Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator saga, a senior official recently confirmed that an Energy Department facility would not be available for a key, controversial research test this year — but said its equipment and “expertise” could be (see GSN, Dec. 15, 2005). In a letter to Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) earlier this month, National Nuclear Security Administration chief Linton Brooks wrote that Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman “has directed that no sled test for this program be conducted at Sandia [National Laboratories in New Mexico], even if funded by” the Defense Department. The decision was made, “In response to concerns by some members of Congress that performing this sled test at Sandia would imply continued research on RNEP,” the Jan. 9 letter says. Congress for fiscal 2005 and the current fiscal 2006 withheld requested funding for the feasibility study of the nuclear “bunker buster.” While administration officials argue the weapon could be necessary to destroy buried, hardened enemy facilities, critics charge that developing a new atomic weapons capability would undermine U.S. nonproliferation efforts. The effort was wasteful, they also said, as the weapon was unlikely to be used because of the potential for unintended casualties. Congress this year however did provide the requested $4 million for the Defense Department to conduct the sled test, stating that it could inform a feasibility assessment of developing a conventional penetrator capability. The sled test involves slamming a mock warhead into a huge block of concrete to study its ability to withstand the shock as it blasts its way underground. A senior Air Force official said in a Defense Daily article last month that even were the test conducted at a Defense Department facility, data would be used to assess the nuclear penetrator option if funding could be obtained for that program in the next fiscal year. Feinstein in a Dec. 21 letter to Brooks sought assurance that “no nuclear testing related to [the] bunker buster program will be conducted at any Department of Energy facilities.” While Brooks in his response indicated the test would not proceed at Sandia, he added, “If DOD chooses to conduct the test at a DOD facility, we believe it is fully consistent with the intent of Congress for Sandia to provide equipment and technical expertise in support of a DOD study of conventional earth penetrators.” Feinstein spokesman Howard Gantman said in an e-mail today, “We are still reviewing the letter.”
U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that his administration would not compromise on financial sanctions imposed on North Korea for alleged financial misconduct, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Jan. 26). “When somebody is counterfeiting our money, we want to stop them from doing that. And so we are aggressively saying to the North Koreans, ‘Don’t counterfeit our money,’” Bush said. The U.S. Treasury Department last year accused Macau-based Banco Delta Asia of being a “primary money laundering concern” with ties to North Korea’s WMD efforts. Washington then implemented financial sanctions against eight North Korean entities connected to the bank, AFP reported. Bush also said it was “very important” for Pyongyang to resume multilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations. “There’s a six-party talk framework that is hopeful and positive for them. Requires them to make some difficult decisions and, of course, one of them is to get rid of the nuclear arsenal,” he said. “But we’re more than willing and want the six-party talks to continue. I think the framework is a framework that can eventually yield to a peaceful settlement of the issue,” Bush said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 26). North Korea said again today that it would not return to the six-nation talks until Washington lifts sanctions on its companies, the Associated Press reported. “Concessions in a serious confrontation with U.S. imperialists mean ruin,” the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper announced in a commentary. “Our unchanged position is that we would respond to good intentions with good intentions and counter hard-line moves with ultra-hardline moves” (Kwang-Tae Kim, Associated Press/Khaleej Times, Jan. 27). Meanwhile, North Korea is preparing to resume bilateral talks with Japan next week, Agence France-Presse reported today. Officials are scheduled to meet on Feb. 4 in Beijing to discuss North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, its Cold War-era abductions of Japanese citizens and normalization of diplomatic ties, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The talks are expected to last several days, according to AFP (Agence France-Presse/Hindustan Times, Jan. 27).
Ukraine announced today that it has scrapped the last of its Soviet-era heavy bombers, RIA Novosti reported (see GSN, Jan. 17). U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst and defense officials from both countries watched the dismantlement of the Tu-22 Backfire bomber at the Poltava Air Force Base, RIA reported. In line with the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) between the Soviet Union and the United States, Ukraine has relinquished or destroyed all its nuclear weapons and cut strategic offensive arms, according to RIA. Four Soviet successor states — Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine — were left with significant nuclear weapons stockpiles and automatically became parties to the treaty when the Soviet Union collapsed (RIA Novosti, Jan. 27).
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