The European Union could strategically slow the process of referring Iran’s nuclear dossier to the U.N. Security Council in hopes of winning support from China and Russia for the move, the Financial Times reported Saturday (see GSN, Jan. 27). The potential plan would be to delay a vote on referral until March to allow for a another attempt at more negotiation. Western countries had previously planned for a vote at Thursday’s emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency governing board. A final decision is expected after a meeting of key foreign ministers tonight in London, according to the Times. “We would prefer to go faster but if unity can be better guaranteed by waiting a little bit more, we should wait,” said a European diplomat. A senior U.S. official, however, said the “proper course” remained referral at this week’s meeting. “We will wait and see where the conversation is on Monday,” he told the Times. An Iranian official, meanwhile, told the Times this week that even a referral without Chinese and Russian support would cause Tehran to end some international inspections and resume plans for industrial-scale uranium enrichment. “Last year, when Iran said it would resume [uranium] conversion at Isfahan, the Europeans thought we were bluffing,” he said. “Well, we weren’t” (Dinmore/Dombey/Smyth, Financial Times, Jan. 28). The current draft resolution by France, Germany and the United Kingdom for Thursday’s meeting backs prompt referral, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday. The resolution calls on the agency “to notify the Security Council ... that questions within the competence of the Security Council have arisen in connection with the implementation of Iran’s NPT (Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty) Safeguards Agreement ... that require action by the Security Council” (Agence France-Presse I/IranMania.com, Jan. 29). Western powers are expected to put pressure on China and Russia at today’s foreign ministers meeting in London, one expert told the Associated Press. “China and Russia are the problem from the point of view of the other four, but for different reasons,” said Victor Bulmer-Thomas, director of Chatham House, referring to France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. “There is likely to be a lot of debate on Monday over the Russian proposal, which will be treated with enormous skepticism by America, less so by the Europeans and is supported by China,” Bulmer-Thomas said (David Stringer, Associated Press I/Hindustan Times, Jan. 30). Meanwhile, Iran made a last-ditch proposal to senior EU diplomats in Brussels in hopes of staving off referral, Reuters reported today. The plan is based on Russia’s compromise plan to enrich uranium on Iran’s behalf, according to Reuters, and includes sending the IAEA Additional Protocol to the Iranian parliament for ratification. It also includes a pledge not to resume uranium enrichment before Thursday and to settle with the agency on the scope of enrichment work, according to a diplomat familiar with the proposal. Tehran also proposed new negotiations with the EU powers for up to two years, Reuters reported (Mark John, Reuters, Jan. 30). However, little appeared to have changed following the meeting, AP reported today. “To be frank, we didn't detect anything new in their approach,” said John Sawers, a senior British official at the meeting. “We will now be reporting to our ministers who will discuss this matter,” Sawers said, referring to tonight’s meeting in London. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Tehran’s offer indicated it had not given up hopes of finding a negotiated solution to the standoff. “The fact that Iran asked for these discussions this morning … illustrates the fact that Iran is … concerned about its international position,” Straw said (Constant Brand, Associated Press II/ABCNews.com, Jan. 30). The United States on Friday rejected the possibility of contact with Iranian at an international aid conference on Afghanistan, AP reported. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was set to lead a U.S. delegation to the two-day conference this week in London, according to AP (Anne Gearan, Associated Press III/Washington Post, Jan. 27). The U.S. Senate on Friday voted unanimously to condemn Iran’s nuclear program and to support Security Council referral, AFP reported. The resolution blasted “the many failures of the government of Iran to comply faithfully with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations” and called on the International Atomic Energy Agency “to order that Iran’s noncompliance with its safeguards obligations be reported to the United Nations Security Council.” The resolution also called on Security Council members to quickly “consider any report of Iran’s noncompliance in fulfillment of the mandate of the Security Council to respond to and deal with situations bearing on the maintenance of international peace and security.” Asked about Tehran’s lukewarm response to Russia’s compromise plan, White House spokesman Scott McClellan accused Iran of “playing more games with the international community” (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, Jan. 27). Iranian and Russian officials, meanwhile, have agreed to expand the number of countries involved in the plan, AP reported yesterday. “Increasing the number of partners in the plan was agreed,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. “The place or the places ... is under review while negotiations continue” (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press IV/Yahoo!News, Jan. 29). Elsewhere, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei on Friday called on Washington to provide nuclear energy reactors to Iran, AP reported. “I would separate the issues of using nuclear technology for energy and to produce weapons,” he said. “I would call upon the United States to provide Iran with reactors, and I would call upon Iran to declare a moratorium on enrichment for at least eight or nine years.” U.S. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), however, remained skeptical of any negotiations with Iran. “They’re interested in acquiring weapons of mass destruction and dominating the Middle East,” McCain said. “I don’t know of any carrot that works” (Edith Lederer, Associated Press V/Yahoo!News, Jan. 27). Iran has granted IAEA inspectors access to the bulldozed Lavizan military site, officials said yesterday. Inspectors received approval to collect environmental samples and to examine equipment taken from the site when it was razed, the New York Times reported. However, Iran continued to resist providing other key information, including documents and materials it obtained from former top Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan’s nuclear black market, meaning that the agency’s governing board would likely receive a mixed report before Thursday’s meeting, the officials said. “Some people will see this as an important step; others won’t,” said one diplomat. “It can be said that this should have happened a year and a half ago” (Sciolino/Slackman, New York Times, Jan. 30). Espionage?Iran has reportedly assembled a group of nuclear specialists to infiltrate the International Atomic Energy Agency, the London Daily Telegraph reported today. The clandestine team’s mission is to obtain information on the work of agency inspectors so that Iran can better conceal sensitive nuclear work, according to Western intelligence agencies. “The Iranians are getting increasingly concerned about the effectiveness of the IAEA’s inspections,” a senior Western intelligence official told the Telegraph. However, official who confirmed the presence of Iranian engineers at IAEA headquarters in Vienna said the agency had safeguards against espionage. “We have a firewall system that prevents any member state finding out how the inspection teams working on that country operate,” said the official (Con Coughlin, Daily Telegraph, Jan. 30). Some diplomats and intelligence services believe North Korea is in talks to sell plutonium to Iran, the London Sunday Times reported yesterday. The United States has launched a diplomatic and covert effort to prevent such a move, according to diplomats based in Beijing and Pyongyang. The International Atomic Energy Agency discovered in 2004 that Pyongyang had sold some 1.7 tons of uranium of uranium to Libya, establishing a precedent for such a sale, diplomats said (see GSN, Feb. 2, 2005) (Michael Sheridan, Sunday Times, Jan. 29). A high-level Iranian military official said Saturday that Tehran would use its ballistic missiles if attacked, AFP reported. “Iran has a ballistic missile capability of 2,000 kilometers. We do not intend to attack any country, but if we are attacked we have the capability to give an effective response. Our policy is defensive,” said Revolutionary Guards commander Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi (Agence France-Presse III/IranMania.com, Jan. 28).
India has yet to meet a key requirement for finalizing the proposed nuclear technology sharing agreement with the United States, the U.S. ambassador to India said in an interview published yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 27). David Mulford said that India offered an inadequate proposal on separating its civil and military atomic installations, Agence France-Presse reported. “If the plan that’s put forward doesn’t appear to put ... the great majority of nuclear reactors into the civilian program, then I think members of the Congress are going to say, ‘Wait a minute, we thought that India wanted to develop a civil nuclear industry. So if that’s the case, why are they putting so little on the civil side ... they must have some different agenda,’” Mulford told the Press Trust of India. “We have to deliver a credible plan and that standard has not been met yet,” he said. Under the agreement, civilian nuclear sites in India would be subject to International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 30). “In order to move on to a new phase in which civil nuclear power would be available to India, India has to make some difficult choices,” U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Reuters. “It’s very important to understand that in order to satisfy the concerns of the American Congress and our laws and the concerns of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, that there will have to be some steps taken to make sure that the proliferation risks are not enhanced by this deal,” she said. (Reuters, Jan. 27). Meanwhile, New Delhi has said it plans to abstain from a vote on Iran’s nuclear program at an emergency International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting on Thursday due to U.S. pressure, the Saudi Press Agency reported today. Mulford said last week that India’s refusal to oppose Tehran at the meeting could jeopardize the U.S.-Indian nuclear technology deal. “We cannot vote with the U.S. after his comments. We’re planning to abstain,” said one senior official (Saudi Press Agency/Hindustan Times, Jan. 30). “We will not come under pressure. … Our prime concern is to protect and safeguard India’s enlightened national interest,” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said yesterday (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 29).
South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said Friday that North Korea could return to multilateral talks on its nuclear weapons program next month, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 27). “We have some indications that we will have a resumption of the six-party talks in February,” Ban said. He said the recent trip by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to China might have brought about a breakthrough (Associated Press I/Miami Herald, Jan. 28). Meanwhile, South Korea and other nations worry that hard-liners in the Bush administration might be using allegations of North Korean financial crimes to undermine the negotiations, the New York Times reported Thursday. While Washington first began to suspect North Korea of counterfeiting U.S. currency in the late 1980s, some critics have questioned why Washington waited until September to raise the issue. Sanctions were imposed not long after North Korea on Sept. 19 agreed to abandon its nuclear program, the Times reported. “The timing could have been poor coordination” between law enforcement officials and negotiators, said Peter Beck, North East Asia director at the International Crisis Group. “Or it could have been sabotage by those who still want regime change.” The Bush administration ordered the inquiry shortly after taking office in 2001, and it took officials four years to gather evidence, said David Asher, a former State Department official who oversaw the investigation. “The timing is just a coincidence,” Asher said. “The administration wanted us to prove this. They didn’t want this to end up like Iraqi WMDs” (Martin Fackler, New York Times, Jan. 29). North Korea on Saturday demanded proof of the alleged financial misdeeds, and issued another warning against possible aggression. “Dark clouds of a nuclear war are hanging low over the Korean Peninsula,” the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a commentary. “The ever-more frantic moves of the U.S. to ignite a new war against (North Korea) would only compel it ... to bolster its deterrent for self-defense in every way,” it said (Associated Press II/Pravda, Jan. 28).
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