Former CIA Official Accuses Bush Administration of Selectively Using Prewar Iraq Intelligence

A former top CIA official said the Bush administration used prewar Iraq intelligence selectively to make the public case for war after having already decided to invade the country, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Feb. 8).

“Official intelligence on Iraqi weapons programs was flawed, but even with its flaws, it was not what led to the war,” Paul Pillar, national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia from 2000 to 2005, wrote in the upcoming issue of the journal Foreign Affairs. The administration “went to war without requesting — and evidently without being influenced by — any strategic-level intelligence assessments on any aspect of Iraq.”

“It has become clear that official intelligence was not relied on in making even the most significant national security decisions, that intelligence was misused publicly to justify decisions already made, that damaging ill will developed between [Bush] policy-makers and intelligence officers, and that the intelligence community's own work was politicized,” Pillar wrote.

Pillar, now a security studies professor at Georgetown University, was considered the CIA’s top counterterrorism analyst prior to his retirement. He was responsible for coordinating assessments on Iraq from throughout the U.S. intelligence community, according to the Post.

Pillar said the “politicization” of intelligence occurred more subtly than outright requests for analysts to alter their work to fit a particular result. “Such attempts are rare, and when they do occur … are almost always unsuccessful,” he wrote.

Instead, the Bush administration “repeatedly called on the intelligence community to uncover more material that would contribute to the case for war,” including information on the “supposed connection” between then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and the al-Qaeda terror organization, according to Pillar.

“Feeding the administration’s voracious appetite for material on the Saddam-al Qaeda link consumed an enormous amount of time and attention,” he wrote.

Based on administration requests and public statements by senior officials, analysts “felt a strong wind consistently blowing in one direction. The desire to bend with such a wind is natural and strong, even if unconscious,” he wrote.

While the White House focused on Iraq’s suspected weapons of mass destruction, the “broad view” in the United States and other nations “was that Saddam was being kept in his box” through U.N. sanctions. Hussein was thought to be best dealt with through “an aggressive inspections program to supplement sanctions already in place.”

The White House did not respond to a request to comment, the Post reported (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Feb. 10).

Meanwhile, the former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney told a federal grand jury that he was authorized by superiors to disclose the contents of a classified National Intelligence Estimate to reporters in the summer of 2003 as the White House sought to justify the invasion, the Associated Press reported today.

“It is our understanding that Mr. Libby testified that he was authorized to disclose information about the NIE to the press by his superiors,” special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald wrote in a Jan. 23 letter to lawyers for Lewis “Scooter” Libby (see GSN, Oct. 31, 2005).

Libby faces five felony charges in connection with the public naming of a CIA operative whose husband, former Ambassador Joseph Wilson, had criticized use of intelligence leading to the invasion.

While portions of the National Intelligence Estimate are sometimes declassified and made public, according to AP, the circumstances in this instance remain unclear.

The White House refused to comment, citing the pending legal proceedings (Toni Locy, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 10).

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South Korea Working With the United States Outside of PSI to Detect and Stop WMD Shipments

While not officially participating in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative, South Korea has been working closely with the United States to detect and stop shipments of weapons of mass destruction, the Yonhap News Agency reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 24).

Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph said the United States is working to increase cooperation from Central and East Asian nations.

“I emphasized to the governments in Central Asia the need to cooperate more with us in improving WMD detection and interdiction, and they have responded positively,” he said yesterday in Washington. “Outside of PSI specifically, the same is true with South Korea and others.”

Joseph said more needs to be done with the initiative, “especially an effective prioritization of and follow-through on detection.”

“At its core, however, increasing WMD interdiction is even more about increasing active cooperation through PSI and other means,” he continued. “Many of these collaborative efforts with our friends and allies are with partners who do not need our assistance, but who do contribute greatly through information sharing and through coordination of capabilities, both with regard to military and law enforcement action” (Yonhap News Agency, Feb. 10).

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German Soldiers Trained in WMD Response to be Mobilized in 12 Cities During the World Cup

Germany plans to have soldiers ready to respond to a WMD attack at the World Cup this summer, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 22, 2005).

These specially trained soldiers are expected to be in the 12 cities where matches are being played (Agence France-Presse/Khaleej Times, Feb. 9).

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France Increases Range, Accuracy of Nuclear Missiles

France made changes to its nuclear arsenal to increase the range and accuracy of missiles, making a targeted and more limited response possible, the London Guardian reported today (see GSN, Jan. 19).

The modifications allow for two new types of nuclear response, according to military sources quoted yesterday by the Liberation newspaper: Paris could fire a less powerful warhead into a deserted area as a warning; or it could explode a warhead at an extremely high altitude, briefly creating a powerful electromagnetic field capable of destroying an enemy’s electronic systems.

The number of warheads per missile has been reduced, according to one military source. French nuclear submarines had been equipped with 16 M45 missiles apiece, each carrying six nuclear warheads. Reducing the number of warheads makes the missile lighter and more accurate and gives it a longer range, the Guardian reported.

“These evolutions are aimed at better taking into account the psychology of the enemy,” Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said, after French President Jacques Chirac announced the warhead reduction last month.

“A potential enemy may think that France, given its principles, might hesitate to use the entire force of its nuclear arsenal against civilian populations,” Alliot-Marie said in a recent speech.

“Our country has modified its capacity for action and from now on has the possibility to target the control centers of an eventual enemy,” she said.

The modifications are designed to give France, in the potential use of its nuclear weapons, “a choice between an apocalypse or nothing at all,” the military source told Liberation (Kim Willsher, The Guardian, Feb. 10).

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Annan Urges Iran to Reinstate Nuclear Freeze

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan yesterday called on Iran to reinstate a moratorium on its nuclear activities and to negotiate with the European Union and Russia, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 9).

“What is important is that both sides have said negotiations are not dead, both sides are prepared to talk. I would urge them to continue,” Annan said.

“In the meantime, it will be important that no steps are taken that will escalate the already tense situation, and I hope Iran will continue to freeze its activities the way they are now, to allow talks to go forward,” he said.

Annan also seemingly agreed with China’s and Russia’s interpretation of the Feb. 4 International Atomic Energy Agency board vote on Iran. Beijing and Moscow have said the Security Council has no authority to take action against Iran, while the European Union and the United States insist that the vote to report Tehran’s activities to the council means both the council and the agency are now considering the matter, Reuters reported.

“We need strong irrefutable evidence that Iran is engaged in atomic weapons,” said Russian U.N. Ambassador Andrei Denisov. “This is not a play where there are good guys and bad guys, black and white. We desire to have as much a clear picture as possible and nobody can do it but the IAEA” (Irwin Arieff, Reuters I, Feb. 9).

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier yesterday expressed optimism about next week’s talks between Iran and Russia regarding Moscow’s proposal to enrich uranium on behalf of an Iranian nuclear energy program, Reuters reported.

“It represents a big chance,” he said.

The Security Council has acknowledged the IAEA report, according to Steinmeier, but does not plan to take action until after the agency’s March 6 board meeting.

U.S. President George W. Bush and German Chancellor Angela Merkel also discussed the issue yesterday, White House spokesman Scott McClellan announced (Reuters II, Feb. 9).

A Russian security expert said yesterday that China, Russia and the United States should join the European powers at the negotiating table with Iran, RIA Novosti reported.

Iran is primarily concerned about its security, said Vladimir Yevseyev, a specialist at the International Security Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Tehran would compromise on its nuclear program if granted security guarantees, especially from the United States, he said.

“In the event of possible use of force, only two states could take part in an attack on Iran — the U.S. and Israel — and even Israel would not attack Iran alone, without agreeing its position with the U.S.,” Yevseyev said.

“Unfortunately, the U.S. still does not want to seriously consider this problem, and is taking a passive position,” he said (RIA Novosti, Feb. 9).

Although Israeli policy supports pre-emptive attacks against the nation’s enemies, the recent offer of a U.S. defense “umbrella” could dissuade Jerusalem from taking such action against Iran’s nuclear program, Reuters reported yesterday.

U.S. President George W. Bush last week vowed to “rise to Israel’s defense,” departing from the language of past U.S. pledges. Washington has previously focused on preserving Israeli regional military superiority, according to Reuters.

“In political life there are no free lunches, and Bush’s statements have a price. They remove the possibility — if there ever was one — of Israel taking matters into its own hands,” wrote Aluf Benn, diplomatic correspondent for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

“The decision if and when to act against Iran will be made in the White House, not in the underground headquarters of the (Israeli military command) General Staff,” Benn added.

A senior Israeli official said Bush’s vow pushed bilateral ties to “a new level.”

While Israel has not responded with any promises, “Our policy is to follow the U.S. lead in this matter,” he said.

He added that an agreement by Israel to forgo unilateral action “would not cost a lot, as while tactically (Israeli) military options are not nil, they are close to nil” (Dan Williams, Reuters III, Feb. 9).

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Bush Administration’s Nuclear Fuel Supply Proposal Unlikely to Appeal to Russia, Experts Say

Russian experts have expressed skepticism about a proposed U.S. nuclear energy consortium, the Russian periodical Gazeta reported Tuesday (see GSN, Feb. 6).

The Bush administration has proposed that Moscow and Washington provide nuclear fuel to Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty signatories intent on pursuing a nuclear energy program. The two countries would then collect the spent fuel to curb any proliferation risk.

“This is more a political statement on America’s part based on a desire for total control of this environment,” said Brokerkreditservis analyst Vyacheslav Zhabin. “If the joint venture is set up, we will get a lot of problems with monitoring, and the Americans will be constantly restricting Russia.”

“Russia has spoken repeatedly on this, and the IAEA option aired earlier seems more interesting,” said Vladimir Poplavskiy, deputy director of the Physics and Power Engineering Institute, referring to a similar proposal by International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei (see GSN, Nov. 7, 2005).

“I regard the idea as interesting, although it is my opinion that the creation of a bilateral venture is unlikely, for other countries will most likely want to participate in the project,” said Anton Khlopkov, deputy director of Russia’s PIR Center think tank.

“But if the United States names the cessation of Russia’s cooperation with Iran as one of the conditions for setting up the joint venture … the project will not be implemented. This is unacceptable to Russia,” Khlopkov added (Mikhail Krasnov, Gazeta, Feb. 7).

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Pakistan to Ask U.S. for Nuclear Agreement

Pakistan is expected to ask U.S. President George W. Bush during his visit next month for a nuclear technology sharing agreement similar to the one the United States is planning with India, the Pakistani newspaper Khabrain reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 6).

Also expected to be discussed are nuclear nonproliferation, terrorism, Iran’s nuclear program and Indo-Pakistani relations, among other topics, according to Pakistani sources (Khabrain/BBC Monitoring, Feb. 9).

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North Korea Wants Bilateral Talks With U.S. Over Financial Misconduct Allegations

North Korea hopes to conduct bilateral talks with the United States over Washington’s decision to take financial regulatory action against several firms in the Stalinist nation, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Feb. 9).

North Korean officials “repeatedly rejected” U.S. allegations of financial misconduct, Indonesian special envoy Nana Sutresna, just returned from Pyongyang, said today. “And at various times, they emphasized their willingness to talk on this question with the United States.”

The officials called the allegations an “obstacle the U.S. put in the way of resumption of the six-party talks,” Sutresna said.

He called the disagreement a bilateral issue.

“The less people interfere with the problem ... I think, the better for the solution,” he said (Bo-Mi Lim, Associated Press, Feb. 10).

Meanwhile, the new South Korean unification minister today called for renewed cooperation between Seoul and Pyongyang, which he said could help resolve the nuclear standoff, AP reported.

“Let us make efforts to ensure inter-Korean ties can have a positive impact on the progress of North Korea’s nuclear issue,” said Lee Jong-seok (Kwang-Tae Kim, Associated Press/Pravda, Feb. 10).

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Chemical at U.S. Capitol Resembled VX

U.S. Capitol Police said yesterday that they initially feared a false alarm Wednesday at the Russell Senate Office Building was a VX nerve agent attack, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Feb. 9).

Capitol Police chief Terrance Gainer said that the first sensor reading “bore a striking resemblance to a nerve agent.” That led to the evacuation of about 200 people to an underground garage.

Gainer said that nontoxic chemicals in lumber recently taken into the building might have set off the alarm.

“The experts will be doing a lot more analysis of what the heck it is,” he said.

The police chief added that his officers were “100 percent more prepared” than they were during the anthrax mailings of 2001. However, there is room for improvement, as five people were discovered inside the building after the evacuation.

“I'm trying to ascertain whether we failed to get the message to them, or they failed to heed our message,” Gainer said.

An ABC News spokeswoman said two camera crew members were among the five, and had been placing equipment in the attic. “These guys didn’t hear a thing,” she said.

This is not the first time sensors in the Capitol have yielded false alarms. Chemical signatures of weapons often match everyday products such as cleaners and paint thinner.

The chemical signature on Wednesday, however, closely matched VX nerve agent. 

“This was a unique one to us,” Gainer said (Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, Feb. 10).

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Bush Administration Budget Includes $10.4 Billion for Missile Defense in Fiscal 2007

The White House is seeking $10.4 billion in fiscal 2007 funding for U.S. missile defense programs, Inside the Pentagon reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 7).

The Missile Defense Agency would receive $9.3 billion, a $1.6 billion increase over last year’s outlay, according to Defense Department budget documents. The remaining $1.1 billion would fund the Army’s Patriot missile program, a senior Pentagon official said Monday.

The proposed Missile Defense Agency budget includes: $2.9 billion for midcourse defense; $1 billion each for ballistic missile terminal defense and Aegis ballistic missile defense; $507 million for ballistic missile defense products; $207 million for ballistic missile defense technology research; and $165 million for the multiple kill vehicle.

The agency’s goals stated in its budget overview, according to Inside the Pentagon, are to: “complete development, fielding” of the initial ballistic missile defense capability; “provide the U.S. combatant commanders with support and sustainment” for the system; “develop a totally integrated capability during 2007 and beyond based on a strong core research and spiral development program”; “execute an increasingly complex test program concurrent with operations”; and “establish a robust international foundation for missile defense” (John Liang, Inside the Pentagon, Feb. 9).

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Researchers Denied Access to Data on Terrorism Threat to Nuclear Waste Shipments to Nevada

Federal officials withheld information that made it difficult to evaluate the risks of terrorist attacks on shipments of spent nuclear fuel from around the country to Nevada, the San Francisco Chronicle reported today (see GSN, Aug. 23, 2005).

The U.S. National Academies of Science in a report released yesterday found that without a terrorist threat, the shipments to the planned Yucca Mountain waste dump are safe from mishaps including traffic accidents or train derailments. This conclusion came partly through experiments in which simulated fuel shipments were dropped or rammed into walls.

However, the report did not address terrorist threats to the materials because the Nuclear Regulatory Commission would not provide needed information.

Sierra Club spokesman Eric Antebi blasted the report as indicating the shipments are “safe only if you ignore any risk of terrorism and if everything else goes right.”

“Those are some pretty big ifs,” he added. “I think Americans are keenly aware that in the real world, whether you are talking about levees, O-rings on the space shuttle, or shipping nuclear waste, the chances of everything going right are extremely small.”

The White House in the coming years expects to transport nuclear waste from around the country to Yucca Mountain. Nuclear Regulatory Commission officials refused to share analysis of possible terrorist strikes on shipments to the dump because researchers did not have security clearance, according to National Academies of Science officials.

Officials at the National Academies yesterday called for a study by investigators with security clearance and access to NRC terrorism studies into the threat of an attack on nuclear shipments, according to the Chronicle.

The threat “is certainly an area of concern to all the American people, and it needs to be properly addressed,” said Neal Lane, chairman of the academy panel.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission dismissed the criticism yesterday.

“We feel that our studies have been very thorough and anything that was identified that needed to be done (to lessen the terrorist risk) has been done,” said spokesman Dave McIntyre. He would not provide specifics but said “we are confident that the transportation of spent nuclear fuel is safe and secure” (Keay Davidson, San Francisco Chronicle, Feb. 10).

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