Iran postponed talks with Russia on a proposal that would enlist Moscow to enrich uranium on Tehran’s behalf, thereby mitigating proliferation concerns, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Feb. 10).
The talks with Russia were scheduled for Thursday but have been delayed indefinitely, said presidential spokesman Gholamhossein Elham. He indicated that the decision was made in reaction to an International Atomic Energy Agency decision earlier this month to report Iran’s nuclear activities to the U.N. Security Council, according to AP. He added that the talks would convene at a date of “mutual agreement.” The Russian Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, announced today that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would discuss Tehran’s nuclear program with European Union leaders in Vienna this week (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, Feb. 13). Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak said today that Russian officials were still expecting the Iranian delegation to arrive as promised on Thursday, Agence France-Presse reported. “Our offer for [Feb.] 16 still stands,” Kislyak was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying (Agence France-Presse/Interactive Investor, Feb. 13). Meanwhile, Iran has restarted uranium enrichment activities at its Natanz facility, Reuters reported today. “We have heard from reliable sources that enrichment work has resumed,” said one diplomat in Vienna (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Feb. 13). International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors discovered over the weekend that some seals and monitoring equipment had been removed from Iranian nuclear sites in the last few days without agency supervision, a diplomat in Vienna said Saturday. Others familiar with the investigation, however, expressed skepticism that Tehran would remove cameras and other agency equipment before inspectors’ arrival, AP reported. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Tehran would remain within the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty framework. “We are still committed to the provisions of the NPT. But we can’t accept its use as a [political] instrument,” Asefi said. He urged the agency and the European Union to keep open diplomatic channels. “The agency and other parties should not block roads to ... Iran,” Asefi said. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over the weekend, however, implied his country might leave the treaty, the Associated Press reported. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that any decision by Iranian officials to renounce the treaty “would only deepen their own isolation.” “The really remarkable thing over the last several months is that there’s really now a tremendous coalition of countries that are saying exactly the same thing to Iran,” Rice told ABC’s “This Week” yesterday (Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, Feb. 13). Also in Washington, U.S. military strategists have been updating plans for air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, the London Sunday Telegraph reported. British delegates visited Washington last week to discuss tactics with Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, the Telegraph reported. While the United Kingdom remains hopeful that the threat of Security Council penalties will deter Iran’s nuclear development, U.S. officials have been skeptical of the likelihood of winning Chinese and Russian support necessary for any council action, according to the Telegraph. “We will have reached the point of no return in the next couple of years,” a senior U.S. Defense Department adviser told the Telegraph. “If diplomacy hasn’t worked by then, Iran will be a long way down the line to acquiring a nuclear weapon. We’re talking about choosing the least bad of a series of bad options. President [George W.] Bush will also be nearing the end of his term and have to decide if he trusts this issue to another administration or wants to use the B-2s.” Richard Perle, a senior Pentagon official during the Iraq war, said that 12 B-2 bombers could do serious damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. “If [Bush] were faced with the choice between Iran crossing the line to become a nuclear-weapon state and using force to destroy or significantly delay that prospect, then I believe he would use force,” Perle said. “I think the decision-making elite in Washington would back Mr. Bush if that was seen to be his only choice.” U.S. strategists believe that targeting key facilities like Natanz, Isfahan and Arak could set Iran’s nuclear program back several years, according to the Telegraph. “There may well be secret sites out there but a nuclear program is not that easy to hide,” said Dan Goure, a Pentagon consultant and vice president of the Lexington Institute. “You need large sites for uranium enrichment and manufacturing plutonium. It’s not like a biological or chemical warfare program: you cannot conduct [nuclear-weapon] research in a Petri dish” (Philip Serwell, Sunday Telegraph, Feb. 12). A surprise air strike on Iranian nuclear installations could lead to massive civilian casualties, according to a report released today. The report, published by the Oxford Research Group, says that while Iraqi civilians had three weeks to ready themselves for war in 2003, attacks on Iranian facilities would probably allow no time for measures such as evacuation. “Military deaths in this first wave of attacks would be expected to be in the thousands,” said report author Paul Rogers, a professor at the University of Bradford’s peace studies department. “Civilian deaths would be in the many hundreds at least, particularly with the requirement to target technical support for the nuclear and missile infrastructure, with many of the factories being located in urban areas.” The report states that those numbers could be much higher if Iran retaliated and the United States responded, the London Guardian reported today. “A military operation against Iran would not ... be a short-term matter but would set in motion a complex and long-lasting confrontation. It follows that military action should be firmly ruled out and alternative strategies developed,” the report adds (Ewen MacAskill, Guardian, Feb. 13). Elsewhere, three aluminum containers suspected of containing nuclear-related materials have been intercepted in Turkey as the result of cooperation between the CIA and Turkish intelligence, the Milliyet newspaper reported Saturday. Two trucks departed Milan with the containers en route to Shadi Oil Industries in Iran, according to the paper (Milliyet/BBC Monitoring, Feb. 11).
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il reportedly said during a state visit to China last month that U.S. financial penalties could cause his regime to collapse, Agence France-Presse reported Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 10). Kyodo News quoted diplomatic sources as saying that Kim made the remarks when Chinese President Hu Jintao suggested that Pyongyang stop insisting on removal of the sanctions as a condition for resumption of multilateral nuclear disarmament talks. “If we do such a thing, our government will collapse,” Kim reportedly replied (Agence France-Presse/Gulf Times, Feb. 11). North Korean officials have indicated their willingness to resolve the dispute over the country’s alleged financial crimes, South Korean lawmakers who visited Pyongyang last week told the Korea Herald. “I’ve received the impression that the North is also willing to deal with the issue sincerely,” said Lim Chae-jung of the ruling Uri Party. North Korean officials on Friday denied any involvement in such activities and promised to “actively” cooperate in combating money laundering, the Herald. Elsewhere, a U.S. official said China has urged North Korea to stop its illicit financial activities, the Yonhap News Agency reported yesterday. A visiting U.S. delegation last month showed Chinese officials evidence of Pyongyang’s illicit transactions with Macau’s Banco Delta Asia, said the official. Beijing in turn told North Korea it must “stop these activities.” As Macau is a special administrative region of China, Chinese authorities are concerned that the case could damage Beijing’s financial credibility, according to a diplomatic source. “From China’s strategic point of view, North Korea’s nuclear problem takes a back seat to Beijing’s long-term goal of joining the international economic system,” the source told Yonhap. “The BDA’s implication in money laundering would reflect badly on … such ambitions” (Yonhap News Agency, Feb. 12).
Eight German nationals are expected to face criminal charges in their home country for allegedly helping Iran to acquire technology that could be used to build nuclear weapons, Reuters reported Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 9). The German Prosecutor’s Office said it has contacted the International Atomic Energy Agency to inform it of the charges. “The General Prosecutor's Office is [in] contact with the IAEA in Vienna in connection with an investigation of suspected proliferation directed by an intelligence agency,” said prosecutor Frauke-Katrin Scheuten. A European diplomat with knowledge of the case said the investigation focused on eight men living in South Africa, Switzerland and Germany. “They are preparing charges against around eight men, mostly for helping Iran, but also Libya, get centrifuge and other nuclear technology,” said the diplomat. Centrifuge sales are subject to export controls in many nations. The Germans being investigated are suspected of acting as middlemen to help Iran acquire the technology, according to the diplomat. The diplomat added that the suspects are linked to the black market network of former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. “It may be that the idea that Khan was directing this network is a bit simplistic. The involvement of Germans was extensive,” said a second diplomat familiar with the case. A German official close to the case said that some or all of the suspects would face treason charges. Former U.N. weapons inspector David Albright said that treason is the obvious charge “since it's so much easier to prove than some other criminal charges” (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters/IranMania.com, Feb. 11).
Japanese authorities today raided a company suspected of improperly exporting equipment that could be part of the uranium enrichment process for nuclear weapons, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 12, 2004). Precision instruments manufacturer Mitutoyo Corp. is believed to have exported three-dimensional measuring machines to Japanese companies in China and Thailand in 2001, Kyodo News reported. Some machinery might have ended up in Libya and North Korea via the black market network founded by former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, according to reports. The International Atomic Energy Agency found Mitutoyo-manufactured machinery at nuclear-related sites in Libya during inspections conducted shortly after Tripoli agreed to give up its WMD programs in 2003, according to Japanese press reports. Scomi Precision Engineering Bhd. of Malaysia, which had links to the Khan network, shipped the equipment to Libya via Dubai, AP reported. The Tokyo Metropolitan Police confirmed the raid but refused to provide comment unless an arrest is made, according to AP. Three-dimensional measuring machines, which map cylindrical shapes and can be used to measure uranium enrichment centrifuges, cannot be exported without government permission, said Mikio Aoki, an official at the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry. Japan is a “treasure trove” for nuclear-related technology, said Nobumasa Akiyama, a specialist at the Center of the Promotion of Disarmament and Nonproliferation. “Japanese companies are often uninterested in where their products end up, or what they are used for, and often try to dodge export regulations without realizing the consequences” (Hiroko Tabuchi, Associated Press/Washington Post, Feb. 13).
U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns might again travel to India before President George W. Bush’s scheduled visit next month to discuss the planned U.S.-Indian nuclear technology sharing agreement, Reuters reported (see GSN, Feb. 9). Objections about the requirement that India separate its civilian and nuclear facilities have developed within New Delhi’s nuclear establishment. Burns, who is leading the U.S. negotiating effort, has talked with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice about making another trip, possibly within a week, a State Department official said. “I think that's just the judgment that he and she have to make — is this the right time for him to go,” the official said. A second U.S. official said it was “doubtful” that all of the issues surrounding the agreement would be resolved by the time Bush arrives in India (Reuters, Feb. 10). Meanwhile, France has begun pressuring India to allow for more international oversight of its nuclear facilities as those nations work on a nuclear agreement, Agence France-Presse reported. “Clearly, from the overall political point of view, we have preoccupations which are similar to those of the U.S.,” French Ambassador Dominique Girard said in an interview with the Press Trust of India. “Clearly, India has to make some proposals, some efforts acceptable to us, to the Americans and all the other Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) countries,” Girard said. “There are some compromises which have to be made by India,” he added. However, Girard warned that a lack of consensus within the Nuclear Suppliers Group could place the deal “on hold” (Agence France-Presse/InteractiveInvestor.com, Feb. 11).
Brazil is just weeks away from beginning industrial-scale uranium enrichment at its facility at Resende, Knight Ridder reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 18). Brazil would become only the ninth country to produce large amounts of enriched uranium. The others are China, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, according to Knight Ridder. Some U.S. experts have expressed concern that Brazil’s program could encourage nuclear proliferation. Given Brazil’s small-scale nuclear fuel needs, the launch of an industrial facility like Resende is unnecessary, said Lawrence Scheinman, a former U.S. arms control official. “There really isn’t much justification for new enrichment facilities unless countries have a very substantial number of reactors to be serviced and don’t want to depend on outside suppliers,” Scheinman said. Brazil has cooperated with International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of Resende, said Odair Dias Goncalves, president of Brazil’s National Nuclear Energy Commission. “There is no way to doubt the intent of our plans because they are completely open,” he said. “We have to take account of every gram of uranium used” (Jack Chang, Knight Ridder/San Jose Mercury News, Feb. 12). Meanwhile, Ukraine announced that it plans to produce nuclear fuel within a dozen years, Agence France-Presse reported Friday. “We need 12 years to develop the (full) nuclear cycle,” said Prime Minister Yury Yekhanurov (Agence France-Presse/Interactive Investor, Feb. 10).
Russia believes that maintaining and upgrading its nuclear arsenal is essential to maintaining its status as a world power, Newsweek reported today (see GSN, Nov. 22, 2005). Questioned about his country’s membership in the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations, President Vladimir Putin last week responded that Russia was a major nuclear power. “We recently carried out tests on new ballistic-weapon systems, weapons which no other country in the world has,” he said. “Putin picked up on these weapons as a political slogan,” said military analyst Pavel Felgenauer. “He is promoting this warhead as proof that we can still do things, still stay in the game.” The new warhead, which maneuvers like a cruise missile on re-entry instead of following a predictable trajectory, is specifically designed to counter U.S. missile defense technology, Newsweek reported. Washington, however, “does not perceive Russia's nuclear modernization activities as threatening,” said State Department spokesman Adam Ereli. That could be partly because a new warhead alone is not enough to create an updated nuclear arsenal, according to Newsweek. Moscow’s delivery systems are rapidly aging. Only one of its six Typhoon-class nuclear submarines is serviceable, while seven more Delta-4 class submarines also are due to reach the end of their service life by the end of the decade. In 10 years, its arsenal of SS-18 and SS-19 strategic rockets will also be unusable, analysts said. Russia could have just 500 warheads in a decade, while the United States is set to maintain its arsenal of about 2,000 state-of-the-art nuclear weapons, Newsweek reported (Owen Matthews, Newsweek/MSNBC.com, Feb. 13).
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