Teams to Develop Simulations of Disease Outbreaks

An international research network charged with developing computer simulations of infectious disease outbreaks has added four new scientific teams, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences at the National Institutes of Health announced yesterday (see GSN, June 1, 2005).

The research network is part of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study. Its findings could help policy-makers draft plans to respond to disease outbreaks, whether natural or deliberate.

The four new teams are set to receive roughly $7.8 million over the next five years, and will work with four existing teams that were established in 2004.

The team comprised of researchers from the Harvard University School of Public Health, the University of Hong Kong, the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands, and the University of Washington will use the money to explore how diseases are transmitted, for evaluating public health measures and to prepare methods for tracking disease outbreaks in early stages.

The team from Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, the Harvard School of Public Health, Brigham & Women’s Hospital, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, and the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Argentina is expected to explore ways to identify emerging infectious disease clusters and track antimicrobial resistance in hospitals. It will also explore how to use information from large health care providers in models (National Institutes of Health release, Feb. 1).

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Lugar Seeks to Ease CTR Rules

U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) has asked the Defense Department to include in its 2007 legislative proposals language that eliminates some certification requirements for cooperative threat reduction programs, Inside the Pentagon reported last week (see GSN, Jan. 31).

Lugar, in a Dec. 27, 2005 letter, asked for the restrictions to be lifted in the former Soviet Union and in other countries.

“The annual certification and waiver process wastes money and valuable time — time and resources lost in the fight against proliferation,” Lugar wrote in the letter to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. “It is imperative that you continue to express your support for the elimination of the certification requirements as well as for the transfer of authority for operations outside the former Soviet Union,” Lugar wrote.

The threat reduction program, created through legislation by Lugar and then-Senator Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) in 1991, provides money to countries in the former Soviet Union to destroy and secure WMD stockpiles and materials. 

The fiscal 2006 defense authorization bill allows President George W. Bush to waive annual certification work required by the legislation that created the threat reduction program. Under the earlier bill, countries cannot receive financial assistance without showing that they are in compliance with international arms control treaties, recognize human rights, invest substantially in nuclear weapons disposal and do not have military modernization programs that “exceed legitimate defense requirements.”

In the fiscal 2003 defense bill, U.S. lawmakers gave the president authority to waive those requirements in the interest of national security. The president must give a comprehensive justification to Congress if he wants the waiver.

“The certification and waiver processes consume hundreds of man-hours of work by the State Department, the intelligence community, the Pentagon, as well as other departments and agencies,” Lugar said in a floor speech last year.

“This time could be better spent tackling the proliferation threats facing our country,” he added. “Instead of interdicting WMD shipments, identifying the next A.Q. Khan, or locating hidden stocks of chemical and biological weapons, our nonproliferation experts spend their time compiling reports and assembling certification or waiver determinations” (Sebastian Sprenger, Inside the Pentagon, Jan. 26).

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Rumsfeld Says Stopping WMD Attack a Top Priority

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld yesterday said one of the military’s top priorities over the next four years is to stop “terrorists and dangerous regimes from obtaining weapons of mass destruction,” Voice of America reported (see GSN, Jan. 27).

Also designated as priorities in the Quadrennial Defense Review, expected to be published tomorrow, are defeating extremism, assisting “countries at strategic crossroads” and protecting the U.S. homeland, Rumsfeld said.  The review is conducted every four years to update U.S. defense priorities.

“It has paid particular attention to finding ways to provide greater flexibility to military commanders so that they can employ a full range of capabilities in this new era of surprise,” Rumsfeld said of the review.

The review calls for expanding special operations forces to fight terrorist groups and stop WMD proliferation.

“The risk of very powerful lethal weapons moving into the hands of rogue states and/or terrorist networks is real. And certainly, the capabilities that the special operations force bring in this area are relevant,” Rumsfeld said.

The military must be able to meet conventional and “disruptive threats,” which requires more flexible soldiers, a longer-range Air Force, a Navy capable of operating off the coast of a countries as well as in open waters and improved intelligence, said Adm. Edmund Giambastiani, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The Defense Department planned budget for fiscal 2007, set to be published Monday, provides “a significant down payment” on these changes, Giambastiani said.

Ryan Henry, who heads the Pentagon’s review efforts, said in a recent speech that while the military is ready to fight a traditional war, it is more likely to face other conflicts. He said improvements of the military’s ability to respond to insurgencies, a WMD attack, or damage to the U.S. economy and infrastructure are needed (Al Pessin, Voice of America, Feb. 1).

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Upgraded U.S. Strategic Command Center Opens

U.S. Strategic Command on Tuesday opened its upgraded $35 million Global Operations Center in Nebraska, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Dec. 2, 2005).

The focus of the center remains on the Strategic Command mission of operating the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

The operations center also has a new “knowledge wall” of projection and flat-screen televisions that connects Strategic Command to other command centers. With these new capabilities in place, Strategic Command is now responsible for defense against weapons of mass destruction, integrated missile defense, worldwide intelligence, computer network warfare, and global and space strike capabilities.

While the upgraded site might not survive a nuclear attack, reinforced steel and concrete protect the center from electromagnetic pulses that would normally knock out electronics, according to AP (Associated Press/Sioux City Journal, Feb. 1).

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IAEA Begins Emergency Meeting on Iran, No Decision Yet

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors convened an emergency session today in Vienna to consider reporting Iran’s controversial nuclear activities to the U.N. Security Council, but the board adjourned for the day without reaching any decisions, Reuters reported (see GSN, Feb. 1).

“We are reaching a critical phase but it is not a crisis situation. It’s about confidence-building and it is not about an imminent threat,” said IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei. The board planned to reconvene tomorrow.

ElBaradei said that even strong advocates of reporting Iran to the Security Council were not pushing for immediate punitive sanctions.

“All of them are saying that this is simply a continuation of diplomacy,” he said.

The U.S. ambassador to the agency echoed that statement.

“Let me be clear: We are not now seeking sanctions or other punitive measures against Iran,” Gregory Schulte said (Heinrich/Murphy, Reuters, Feb. 2).

A draft board resolution now under consideration calls for Iran to re-establish its former moratorium on uranium enrichment and research; consider a halt on construction of a heavy-water reactor at Arak; formally ratify the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement; and grant the agency additional access, including interviews with key individuals and documentation on its black market nuclear purchases, AP reported (George Jahn, Associated Press I/Washington Post, Feb. 1).

The United States expects the board to approve the resolution after meetings earlier this week removed Russian and Chinese opposition

“Our patience has paid off, as we have broadened international support to include Russia and China,” Acting Assistant Secretary of State Stephen Rademaker said this morning at an American Enterprise Institute event (Marina Malenic, GSN, Feb. 2)

Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, meanwhile, informed ElBaradei in a letter today that his country would sharply cut back agency inspections and restart uranium enrichment if its nuclear dossier is referred to the Security Council, AP reported (George Jahn, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, Feb. 2).

“Natanz [Iran’s enrichment plant] is ready and we need only report to the IAEA to resume activities,” Larijani said yesterday.

He also said that he saw no “signs of life” in a Russian compromise proposal under which Moscow would enrich Iran’s uranium in Russia, the Financial Times reported (Bozorgmehr/Smyth, Financial Times, Feb. 2).

Indicating U.S. and West European fears, Iran has as recently as 2003 conducted experiments with high explosives, possibly linked a potential nuclear test, CBS News reported yesterday.

IAEA analysts said the experiments may have taken place at a military complex south of Tehran.

State Department spokesman McCormack said “we are seeing more and more indications” that Iran’s nuclear activities are aimed at acquiring a nuclear weapon, AP reported  (CBS News.com, Feb. 2).

A senior State Department official warned yesterday that Iran is pursuing both uranium-based and a plutonium-based nuclear weapons, the Washington Times reported.

Undersecretary of State Robert Joseph said Iran is seeking “numerous routes to provide it with the ability to produce fissile material for weapons.”

“We judge Iran is going down the plutonium route through construction of a heavy-water research reactor and a heavy-water plant,” he said.

Iran is also working to develop long-range, nuclear-capable missiles, he said.

“We believe it aspires to this capability so that it can hold hostage the cities of our friends in the Middle East and Europe — and perhaps in the future even those in our own country,” he said (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Feb. 2).

National Intelligence Director John Negroponte today told the Senate intelligence committee that Iran probably does not yet have nuclear weapons or weaponizable fissile material, AP reported.

“Nevertheless, the danger that it will acquire a nuclear weapon and the ability to integrate it with the ballistic missiles Iran already possesses is a reason for immediate concern,” he said.

Iran already has “the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East,” he added (Katherine Shrader, Associated Press III/Montana Standard, Feb. 2).

President George W. Bush said yesterday that the United States would defend Israel militarily against Iran if necessary, Reuters reported.

“Israel is a solid ally of the United States, we will rise to Israel’s defense if need be,” said Bush.

“You bet, we’ll defend Israel,” he said.

He added that said there was a “very good chance” that Iran would be reported to the Security Council for possible sanctions (Steve Holland, Reuters, Feb. 1).

Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Iran’s nuclear program by telephone yesterday, AFP reported.

“They both agreed that it was important to stay in close contact as we move forward to address this issue,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan. “Both leaders have a shared concern about Iran developing a nuclear weapon under the guise of a civilian program.”

Russia has reportedly resisted specifically mentioning in any report to the Security Council that Iran is in noncompliance with its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

A senior U.S. official said the text of the proposed resolution requires the U.N. nuclear watchdog to report to the Security Council all of its “reports and resolutions as adopted related to this issue.” This would mean also transmitting a September resolution that cited Tehran as breaching its obligations, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse I/IranMania.com, Feb. 1).

Russia has told Iran it must cooperate with the agency, AFP reported yesterday.

“Our friendly advice to our Iranian colleagues remains the same, cooperation with the IAEA on the basis of the board of directors’ resolution,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak said yesterday after talks with Larijani.

Larijani said significant divisions remained following talks in Tehran with visiting Chinese and Russian officials.

“The diplomats from China and Russia came to Iran and we had negotiations, they had a point of view on solving the issue, but we had a different point of view,” Larijani said (Agence France-Presse II/IranMania.com, Feb. 1).

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Andrei Denisov said yesterday that sanctions on Iran could lead Tehran to halt oil and gas exports, AFP reported.

“If you impose sanctions theoretically on Iran, then it would be appropriate to ask a question: Who is imposing sanctions on whom — the international community on Iran or rather Iran on the international community?” Denisov said (Agence France-Presse III/IranMania.com, Feb. 1).

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U.S. Envoy to North Korea Talks Defends Action on Pyongyang’s Alleged Financial Crimes

By Marina Malenic
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The chief U.S. envoy to stalled North Korea nuclear disarmament talks said yesterday that he has no control over the timing of a Treasury Department probe of Pyongyang’s suspected illicit financial activities (see GSN, Feb. 1).

“As a negotiator on a diplomatic matter on a security matter, I’m in no position … to go to law enforcement and say, ‘Please halt the law enforcement effort. I have a diplomatic process under way,’” Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said in a speech here at the American Enterprise Institute.

In September, the Treasury Department announced its investigation of Macau-based Banco Delta Asia and two other regional banks, which Washington accused of laundering counterfeit U.S. currency on behalf of Pyongyang (see GSN, Sept. 9).

While Hill said his team had “good communications” with Treasury officials involved in the probe, he insisted that the timing of department’s action was not coordinated with the September round of six-country talks, where Pyongyang agreed in principle to dismantle its nuclear programs in exchange for energy assistance, economic cooperation and security guarantees (see GSN, Sept. 19). 

Hill characterized the probe as an ongoing law enforcement matter under the U.S. Patriot Act. He reiterated the Bush administration’s position that “financial regulatory action” by the Treasury Department is a matter entirely separate from the six-party nuclear talks.

“The best way to end the counterfeiting investigation is to end the counterfeiting,” he said.

Pyongyang has said it plans to boycott further nuclear negotiations until the United States lifts financial restrictions it instituted in retaliation for alleged North Korean weapons proliferation and illicit financial activities. In October, the Treasury Department froze the U.S.-based assets of eight North Korean entities the White House accused of WMD proliferation-related activity (see GSN, Oct. 24).

U.S. Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Daniel Glaser, having returned from a trip to brief China, Japan and South Korea on his department’s investigation, said yesterday that North Korea’s neighbors “acknowledged that it’s perfectly appropriate” for the United States to protect its financial system.

The U.S. Secret Service has found $48 million in counterfeit U.S. $100 notes produced by Pyongyang over the past 16 years, Glaser told the Associated Press.

The Associated Press also reported today that South Korea’s National Intelligence Service does not believe North Korea is presently involved in currency counterfeiting.

While North Koreans were arrested in the 1990s for counterfeiting, there was no indication of continued activity after 1998, agency officials told lawmakers during a closed session of parliament’s intelligence committee.

“North Korea circulated counterfeit currency in the 1990s,” National Intelligence Service spokesman Choi Jae-keun said after the briefing. “The government has serious concerns regarding the issue of the North’s counterfeiting and is closely following the situation.”

Meanwhile, the International Crisis Group said in a report released yesterday that China has less influence in North Korea than is widely believed.

“China’s influence on North Korea is more than it is willing to admit but far less than outsiders tend to believe,” says the report.

“The most important implication of this analysis for policy-makers is that China cannot be relied upon either to bring a more cooperative North Korea to the (nuclear-negotiating) table or to enforce whatever is agreed there,” it says. “Expecting China to compel North Korean compliance will only waste more time and give Pyongyang longer to develop its nuclear stockpile.”

“China currently holds the biggest potential carrot and stick with the North,” said Peter Beck, the group’s North East Asia project director and co-author of the report.

“The carrot is the $2 billion economic assistance rumored to have been offered by (Chinese President) Hu (Jintao) during his visit to Pyongyang last October,” Beck told Reuters. “The stick is in the form of American pressure to crack down on the North’s remaining banking activities in China.”

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U.S. Forms Team to Trace Nukes

U.S. Defense Department officials said a team has been formed to explore the aftermath of a possible terrorist nuclear strike on U.S. soil to determine who is responsible for the attack, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 24, 2005).

The team has access to hundreds of federal experts and would use robots and other technology to determine the origin of the weapon and whether the blast was a radiological “dirty bomb” or an actual nuclear weapon. The goal of the team would partly be to quickly determine where the bomb came from to give the military strike-back options. Officials also hope the team would provide a deterrent against nuclear attacks as terrorists would know their weapon could be traced back to them.

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency operates the team, which began its work last year, according to Michael Evenson, agency associate operations director.

“I'm very confident we can achieve what we set out to do,” Evenson said. “We’ve started, and intend to continue, an exercise and evaluation program so this doesn't fall into atrophy.”

The team was created by a secret 2002 presidential directive called the “National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction,” according to Evenson.

The goal of the team, Evenson said, is “to figure out who attacked us” by scientifically analyzing the nuclear device.

A senior military official said the agency in October completed a drill involving the team and hundreds of others in which radioactive samples were collected and analyzed. 

“It was a blind test,” said the official. “None of the participants knew what they were analyzing.”

During the test, the team achieved an “initial integrated operational attribution capability for accurate and rapid attribution,” according to documents obtained by the Times. The document also said the team used “robot technologies to collect debris samples in high radiation fields” (William Broad, New York Times, Feb. 2).

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U.S. to Expand Nuclear Facility Safety Violations Fines to Include Toxic Materials, Industrial Hazards

The U.S. Energy Department is expected to publish a new rule next week allowing for the fining of contractors that expose workers to toxic materials or industrial hazards at U.S. nuclear weapons facilities, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 26).

Contractors now can only be fined for exposing workers to radiation hazards, according to AP.

Under the new rule, contractors could be penalized up to $70,000 per day for non-nuclear safety breaches.

“We’ve never had this enforcement authority before, and that’s why it is a significant step forward in enhancing safety and health issues across the DOE complex,” said John Shaw, assistant energy secretary for environment, safety and health.

The United States operates 31 nuclear weapons facilities in 17 states. The new rule will affect 100,000 workers who are involved in maintaining weapons, dismantling surplus weapons, disposing of radioactive materials, conducting research and cleaning up sites.

The rule, which is expected to be published next week in the Federal Register, is to take effect in 2007. The 2007 budget submitted by President George W. Bush is not expected to include money to enforce the new regulation.

Shaw, however, said the resources to make sure contractors comply with the regulation are in place.

“We’ll be able to enforce this rule,” he said (Nancy Zuckerbrod, Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, Feb. 1).

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