By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration is pursuing twin goals in Iran: stopping an alleged nuclear weapons program and changing the country’s clerical regime, a senior official said yesterday at a congressional hearing (see GSN, March 8). Critics at the hearing suggested this approach might work to cross purposes and lead to war, by threatening the regime while at the same time trying to compel its cooperation in forgoing a potential security addition. We “just seem to be trying to provoke and aggravate and [be] looking for a fight,” said Representative Ron Paul (R-Texas). U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns described the dual strategy yesterday before the House International Relations Committee. He said the United States over the past year has sought to muster multinational pressure through the International Atomic Energy Agency and potentially through the U.N. Security Council to compel Iran to give up nuclear activities Washington believes are intended for weapons. In addition, the Bush administration has pursued policies designed to encourage the Iranian people to “change their own government and form a democratic government in the future.” The United States has sought to “create a large and diverse international coalition of countries on each of these issues designed to deny Iran a nuclear weapon, and to roll back its support for terrorism, and to influence the people of Iran who we see as victims of the regime, and to assert a comprehensive and aggressive American foreign policy to counter Iran on all of these issues,” Burns said. He noted the administration has requested $75 million in extra funding for fiscal 2006 to expand television and radio broadcasts through Voice of America and Radio Farda into Iran, and “to work with some of the private American radio and TV stations from the states of California and New Jersey and the Washington, D.C area to help them get the American message into Iran itself.” The White House would use $10 million of the money to “work through nongovernmental organizations around the world and with some of the European NGOs to try to plant some roots of democracy, of independent journalism, of civil society into Iran,” he said, adding, “We can’t say everything that we’re intending to do, obviously.” The State Department recently created a Iranian Affairs Office, through which the department plans to “reach out to the Iranian people to support their desire for freedom and democracy,” according to a leaked department cable recently posted on the Internet. Multiple Threats DescribedBurns said Tehran posed four particular “challenges” to U.S. interests, identifying a potentially nuclear-armed Iran at the top. “The greatest immediate threat that we face is that Iran is clearly trying to create a nuclear weapons capability,” he said. In addition, he said, “Iran is the leading director and chief ‘central banker’ of the major terrorist groups in the Middle East that have killed Americans and killed Israelis and Lebanese, and which stand in direct opposition to peace in the Middle East.” Iran also has attempted “to exert a dominant role in the Middle East itself and to make Iran into the most powerful country in the Middle East,” he said. Burns cited fourth “the repression of the people of Iran by this autocratic regime.” “That in essence, in our judgment, represents the totality of the threat that Iran poses to American interests, as well as to those of our friends and allies around the world,” he said. Approach QuestionedSeveral lawmakers at the hearing questioned the wisdom of the approach, Paul in particular. “I know the interventions that most everybody advises are well intended, but interference in the internal affairs of other nations does not do much good for us. Playing the policeman of the world has not been beneficial,” he said. Paul suggested that pursuit of regime change in Iraq backfired on the United States. “I just think that all these options on the table to do to Iran what we’ve done to Iraq ought to make us sit back and say, what have we done these last three years; isn’t it time for a reassessment?” he said. He said further the administration’s pursuit of a nuclear energy deal with India signed last week also seemed counterproductive to the effort to gain Iranian cooperation. “Does India follow all the rules? They don’t even belong to the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty. And we reward them with technology and money. Same way with Pakistan,” he said. Burns defended the India deal, saying, “India is democratic and peaceful and a great friend of the United States. Iran is autocratic and adversarial and … one of the greatest threats facing our country today.” He said the two countries are “going in opposite directions concerning their relationship with the IAEA,” noting nuclear-armed India as part of the deal agreed to place some of its nuclear facilities under international safeguards within eight years. That concession comes in exchange for potential U.S. nuclear material and technology exports and a U.S. effort to persuade the multilateral Nuclear Suppliers Group to allow India to receive such exports despite its nuclear weapons program. Representative Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) asked whether drawing distinctions might undermine efforts to muster international cooperation on pressuring Iran. “The issue here appears to be how we compel a China or a Russia that has a different relationship with Iran to understand how it’s OK for us to draw these distinctions with India, but it’s not OK for them,” he said. Burns said the administration has judged “our policy towards India and its new initiative will not have a negative impact on our ability to prosecute an effective international response to counter Iran.” Representative Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.) asked whether application of the so-called “Bush Doctrine” of preventive war against countries suspected of proliferation and ties to terrorism is a possibility. “The president has made clear that there are no options off the table and that a nuclear-armed Iran is intolerable,” Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph said in his testimony before the committee. “I know you didn’t come here to scare us, but I think you’ve frightened me a little bit,” Paul said. “Considering the results in Iraq, I would hope that our planning and our discussion now would concentrate on where we went wrong in Iraq, because we can’t find many successes there,” he said. Representative Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) said the administration should consider attempting bilateral talks with Iran, “rather than seeking only to support negotiations of the EU or the efforts of Russia to control the reprocessing of nuclear materials to the satisfaction of the international community.” “We will not be well served by another military venture into the Middle East, and neither will the cause of nonproliferation. So I think it’s about time we enhance and elevate our diplomatic efforts,” she said.
Delegates from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council yesterday met to discuss the Iran nuclear crisis, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 8). The International Atomic Energy Agency yesterday sent the matter to the Security Council for consideration and possible action. Officials from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States agreed that the next step would be a nonbinding presidential statement on Iran and that any further moves should not be rushed, council diplomats said. “We are at a very tentative stage,” said British Ambassador Emyr Jones-Parry. “This is an incremental approach, we’ll do it on that basis.” The United Kingdom proposed that IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei report again in two weeks on Iran’s compliance with agency resolutions, one diplomat said. The United States is likely to seek to have the presidential statement note Iran’s lack of compliance with agency resolutions, diplomats said. France and the United Kingdom are expected to support such a move. “We talked about the role and reaction of the Security Council to the continued Iranian violation of the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty,” U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said following the meeting. “Now that it’s here, we’ll proceed in a careful and deliberate fashion.” “We will follow a gradual approach ... because we want Iran to go back to suspension, so the action will be gradual and reversible if Iran goes back to suspension,” said French Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sabliere. China and Russia, meanwhile, are expected to resist any tough action. Russian Ambassador Andrey Denisov said Iran would not have sufficient time to move on compliance in the two weeks called for by the British proposal, AP reported. Harsh measures by the Security Council could lead Iran to abandon the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and close its atomic facilities to inspection, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. “We should all strive for a solution which would not endanger the ability of the IAEA to continue its work in Iran, while of course making sure there is no danger for the nonproliferation regime,” he said. Lavrov said France, Germany and the United Kingdom had suggested new negotiations in Vienna, with the participation of China, Iran, Russia, the United States and ElBaradei. However, European and U.S. diplomats denied any knowledge of such a plan, AP reported (Nick Wadhams, Associated Press, March 9). U.S. Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Gregory Schulte yesterday called on the agency to conduct “special inspections,” the London Guardian reported. Such inspections would be far more intrusive than the agency’s current method in Iran, said a diplomat. The strategy was used to little effect 13 years ago in North Korea, according to the Guardian. Schulte said Iran had enough uranium to build 10 nuclear bombs. France, Germany and the United Kingdom released a statement saying that Security Council action was inevitable. They said there was “no credible civil use” for Iran’s uranium gas stockpile (Ian Traynor, The Guardian, March 9). Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tehran remained determined to pursue its nuclear program, despite the threat of Security Council action, Agence France-Presse reported. “Some powers think that if they sit in a session, they can force the Iranian people to retreat. But all the Iranian nation, young or old, urban dweller or villager and farmer or factory worker are all saying one thing: nuclear energy is our undeniable right,” Ahmadinejad said. Iran’s Assembly of Experts, an 86-member clerical body, said the nuclear issue is “at the center of the psychological war against the Islamic regime.” “The Iranian nation is determined to guard this great national asset with all its power, and if the aggressors do not stop their interference to the undeniable right to our nation, they will pay a heavy price,” the assembly said in a statement. Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, however, warned against isolating Iran. “If we cannot interact with the world community while maintaining our national interests, then we will have great problems in the future,” he said. Regarding the potential for sanctions, he said, “We have to do our best not to reach that point.” Washington, meanwhile, said Iran continued to deepen its isolation. “I think that provocative statements and actions only further isolate Iran from the rest of the world,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, March 9). British Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Peter Jenkins dismissed Ahmadinejad’s warnings as “bluster,” AFP reported yesterday. “It seems to me that the Iranians are being over-confident in some of the assumptions they are making about the possible consequences of persisting on their current course,” Jenkins said. Jenkins admitted that the U.N. nuclear watchdog had not discovered “firm evidence” of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. “On the other hand, [ElBaradei] has come across a number of indicators that the military may be involved in Iran’s nuclear program and he has not been able to discount those indicators as false or irrelevant,” he added (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, March 8). China today called for further diplomacy, Reuters reported. “On the Iran nuclear issue, yesterday ElBaradei said the problem should be solved through peaceful negotiations,” said Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing. “That makes sense. There is still room for cooperation. ... We support EU and Russian engagement with Iran” (Reuters/Yahoo!News, March 8).
The White House yesterday issued a response to criticisms of its nuclear technology sharing agreement with India, Agence France Presse reported (see GSN, March 8). On fears that the deal would heighten the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan, the Bush administration said it “has no intention of aiding” New Delhi’s weapons program. “We do not intend to pursue a similar nuclear cooperation initiative with Pakistan,” the White House said. Supporting the nuclear program of a nation that remains outside the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty will not encourage the suspected weapons efforts of Iran and North Korea, according to the statement. “It is not credible to compare the rogue regimes of North Korea and Iran to India. Unlike Iran or North Korea, India has been a peaceful and vibrant democracy with a strong nuclear nonproliferation record,” the White House said. The administration does not expect the deal to harm international nonproliferation work and warned against withdrawals from the treaty, AFP reported. “We do not expect nations to withdraw from the NPT. Any move to withdraw from the NPT would clearly signal a nation’s intent to pursue nuclear weapons and would result in the loss of access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes,” according to the statement. Representative Edward Markey (D-Mass.) was not convinced by the document. “Whether we intend to aid India’s weapons programs or not, the practical effect of this agreement is to help India get the fuel it needs to build more weapons,” he said in a prepared statement. “The rest of the world is ready to exploit what it perceives to be a double standard,” he said. “Iran will use this against us. North Korea will use this against us. We have empowered all the bad actors in the world, and we have given all the good actors a reason to question our credibility or steadfastness” (Agence France Presse/Yahoo!News, March 8).
Japan today denied reports that a top official has expressed the need for Tokyo to develop a nuclear program to counter the threat from North Korea, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Feb. 13). “It is not true,” Senior Vice Foreign Minister Katsutoshi Kaneda said of the remarks attributed to Foreign Minister Taro Aso. The Shukan Bunshun magazine today quoted Aso as saying on Dec. 2 in Washington, “India and Pakistan also have them and so does North Korea. If North Korea continues its nuclear development, even Japan would need to arm itself with nuclear weapons.” Aso was meeting with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney at the time, AFP reported. The remark stunned U.S. and Japanese officials in the room, according to Shukan Bunshun. Aso reportedly made similar remarks at a meeting the next day with U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Japan should have nuclear weapons “if China and North Korea become security threats,” he was quoted as saying (Agence France-Presse, March 9).
North Korean representatives at a meeting with U.S. officials this week in New York set several conditions for Pyongyang’s return to the six-party talks on its nuclear program, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, March 8). Ri Gun, the head of North Korea’s delegation at Tuesday’s meeting, requested that Washington remove “financial sanctions”; form a joint U.S.-North Korean task force to study the counterfeiting issue; allow North Korea access to the U.S. banking system; and provide Pyongyang with technical assistance on identifying counterfeit currency, according to a U.S. official familiar with the meeting. “We cannot go into the six-party talks with this hat over our head,” the official quoted Ri as saying. A senior Republican lawmaker, meanwhile, urged Washington to hold direct talks with Pyongyang. “The six-party process is beginning to appear moribund,” said Representative Jim Leach (R-Iowa), chairman of the House International Relations subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific. “It’s time for the United States to lead” rather than “indebting us to the diplomacy of countries that may have different interests.” Leach said there is a strong argument for allowing the U.S. point man on the North Korea nuclear standoff, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, to visit Pyongyang “to test the boundaries — and push for implementation — of the joint statement. He also called for consideration of having the United States and North Korea open liaison offices in each other’s capitals. Hill said yesterday that the United States is prepared to go back to multilateral nuclear talks “without conditions” (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, March 9). Ri said the United States at the meeting failed to prove allegations of North Korean financial misconduct, Agence France-Presse reported today. “There was no evidence,” Ri told the Seoul-based newspaper Hankyoreh. “There were neither comments nor discussions on them,” he said in response to a question about alleged currency counterfeiting by North Korean entities (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 9). Elsewhere, South Korean nuclear negotiator Chun Young-woo departed today for Beijing, where is he expected to discuss the nuclear talks, the Associated Press reported. Chun said he hoped to “frankly exchange views on how to cooperate to move the talks forward when they resume” when he meets his Chinese counterpart, Wu Dawei, the Yonhap News Agency reported (Associated Press, March 9).
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