Washington has increased clandestine activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a possible air attack involving nuclear weapons against the country’s atomic installations, the New Yorker reported in its April 17 edition (see GSN, April 7). Undercover U.S. combat troops have entered Iran to collect targeting data and to establish links with opposition groups, according to current and former U.S. military and intelligence officials. The White House aims to prevent Iran from initiating a pilot uranium enrichment program. Members of the U.S. military and international officials have said they believe U.S. President George W. Bush’s end goal in the standoff with Iran is regime change, according to the New Yorker. As President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has denied the Holocaust and called for Israel to be “wiped off the map,” members of the Bush administration see him as a potential Adolf Hitler, a former top intelligence official said. “That’s the name they’re using,” the former official said. “They say, ‘Will Iran get a strategic weapon and threaten another world war?’” A consultant close to the civilian leadership in the U.S. Defense Department said Bush believes that he must do “what no Democrat or Republican, if elected in the future, would have the courage to do,” and “that saving Iran is going to be his legacy.” One former defense official who remains close to the Bush administration told the New Yorker that military planning is being conducted under the assumption that “a sustained bombing campaign in Iran will humiliate the religious leadership and lead the public to rise up and overthrow the government.” “I was shocked when I heard it, and asked myself, ‘What are they smoking?’” he added. In response to requests for comment, the White House would only tell the New Yorker: “As the President has indicated, we are pursuing a diplomatic solution.” The Pentagon said Iran was being dealt with through “diplomatic channels.” The CIA said “inaccuracies” existed in the New Yorker report but would not specify them. Bush has in recent weeks met with a few members of Congress. A senior House Appropriations Committee member, who has discussed the contents of the meeting with colleagues who attended, said there had been “no formal briefings,” because “they’re reluctant to brief the minority. They’re doing the Senate, somewhat selectively.” He said no meeting participants are “really objecting” to the talk of war. “The people they’re briefing are the same ones who led the charge on Iraq. At most, questions are raised: How are you going to hit all the sites at once? How are you going to get deep enough?” he said. “There’s no pressure from Congress” against military action, he added. “The only political pressure is from the guys who want to do it.” “The most worrisome thing is that this guy has a messianic vision,” he said of Bush. Limited operations against Iran have begun, according to the New Yorker. U.S. Navy aircraft in the Arabian Sea have been flying simulated nuclear-weapons delivery missions since last summer, the former official said. At a Middle East security conference in Berlin last month, Col. Sam Gardiner, a military analyst and retired Air Force officer, estimated that strikes on at least 400 targets would be needed to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. “I don’t think a U.S. military planner would want to stop there,” he added. “Iran probably has two chemical-production plants. We would hit those. We would want to hit the medium-range ballistic missiles that have just recently been moved closer to Iraq. There are 14 airfields with sheltered aircraft. … We’d want to get rid of that threat. We would want to hit the assets that could be used to threaten Gulf shipping. That means targeting the cruise-missile sites and the Iranian diesel submarines.” An initial Defense Department plan calls for the use of a bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon against Iran’s underground nuclear sites, particularly the Natanz centrifuge site. The elimination of Natanz would be a major blow to Iran’s nuclear program, but the use of a conventional weapon would not ensure the facility’s destruction, according to the New Yorker. However, a former senior Pentagon official said even restricted bombing would allow the United States to “go in there and do enough damage to slow down the nuclear infrastructure — it’s feasible.” “The Iranians don’t have friends, and we can tell them that, if necessary, we’ll keep knocking back their infrastructure. The United States should act like we’re ready to go,” the official said. Other experts “say ‘No way,’” according to the former senior intelligence official. “You’ve got to know what’s underneath — to know which ventilator feeds people, or diesel generators, or which are false. And there’s a lot that we don’t know.” The lack of reliable intelligence means tactical nuclear weapons are the preferred choice for military planners, the former official said. “Every other option, in the view of the nuclear weaponeers, would leave a gap,” the former official said. “‘Decisive’ is the key word of the Air Force’s planning. It’s a tough decision. But we made it in Japan.” Some officers within the Joint Chiefs of Staff have talked about resigning over consideration of the nuclear option. Late this winter, the Joint Chiefs of Staff sought, without success, to remove the nuclear option from the plan, the former official said. “The White House said, ‘Why are you challenging this? The option came from you,’” the former official added. One Pentagon adviser on the war on terror called the interest in the nuclear option within the administration “a juggernaut that has to be stopped.” “There are very strong sentiments within the military against brandishing nuclear weapons against other countries,” the adviser said. “This goes to high levels.” The Joint Chiefs, he said, have agreed to give Bush a formal recommendation stating that they are strongly opposed to the nuclear option. “The internal debate on this has hardened in recent weeks,” he said. “And, if senior Pentagon officers express their opposition to the use of offensive nuclear weapons, then it will never happen.” However, the adviser also questioned the value of air strikes against Iran. “The Iranians have distributed their nuclear activity very well, and we have no clue where some of the key stuff is. It could even be out of the country,” he said. He also warned that bombing Iran could provoke “a chain reaction” of attacks on U.S. assets and citizens world-wide. “What will 1.2 billion Muslims think the day we attack Iran?” he said. Pakistan, meanwhile, has in recent months provided Washington with new access to former top nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. Khan made at least one visit to Tehran in the late 1980s, according to the New Yorker, and has provided information about Iran’s time line for building a nuclear weapon. “The picture is of ‘unquestionable danger,’” said the former senior intelligence official, who added that Khan has been “singing like a canary.” Khan, however, “has credibility problems. He is suggestible, and he’s telling the neoconservatives what they want to hear.” The International Atomic Energy Agency, whose officials are said in the article to believe Iran wants a nuclear weapons capability, is nonetheless concerned that “nobody has presented an inch of evidence of a parallel nuclear-weapons program in Iran,” a high-ranking diplomat told the New Yorker. The agency believes Iran is approximately five years away from building a nuclear weapon. “But, if the United States does anything militarily, they will make the development of a bomb a matter of Iranian national pride,” the diplomat said. During a meeting earlier this year with Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, Robert Joseph, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control, said Iran was a threat to the United States regardless of its nuclear development, one diplomat said. “We cannot have a single centrifuge spinning in Iran. Iran is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and our allies, and we will not tolerate it. We want you to give us an understanding that you will not say anything publicly that will undermine us,” the diplomat quoted Joseph as saying (Seymour Hersh, The New Yorker, April 17). U.S. officials and analysts said the plan was part of a broader strategy of coercive diplomacy, the Washington Post reported yesterday. An attack is not likely to occur in the near future. The plans are being prepared as a possible option and as a threat “to convince them this is more and more serious,” said one senior official. Israel also recently leaked a contingency plan for attacking on its own if the United States does not, according to the Post. While Israel has built a replica of Natanz, according to Israeli media, U.S. strategists do not believe it can destroy the facility without nuclear weapons, the Post reported. Iran, meanwhile, has launched a program to protect Natanz, Isfahan and other key sites with concrete ceilings, camouflage and other changes, according to the Post. U.S. war planners are also concerned, according to the Post, that launching attacks from Iraq or using Iraqi airspace would indicate to the Islamic world that the United States invaded Iraq for use as a base for military conquest of the region (Baker/Linzer/Ricks, Washington Post, April 9). Bush counselor Dan Bartlett warned against jumping to conclusions about the administration’s plans, the Associated Press reported today. “The president’s priority is to find a diplomatic solution to a problem the entire world recognizes,” Bartlett said yesterday. “And those who are drawing broad, definitive conclusions based on normal defense and intelligence planning are ill-informed and are not knowledgeable of the administration’s thinking on Iran.” British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told the BBC that the idea of a nuclear strike against Iran was “completely nuts,” AP reported. Straw said the United Kingdom would not launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran and added that he was as “certain as he could be” that the United States would not, either. “The reason why we’re opposed to military action is because it’s an infinitely worse option and there’s no justification for it,” he said. Stephen Cimbala, a Pennsylvania State University foreign policy professor, said the Pentagon likely has contingency plans for a strike on Iran, but they are not a feasible option. “If you look at the military options, all of them are unattractive,” Cimbala said. “Either because they won’t work or because they have side effects where the cure is worse than the disease” (Nedra Pickler, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, April 10). Some U.S. officials questioned the reported Iran war plan, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday. Retired Gen. Anthony Zinni suggested that a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear installations would be extremely risky. “Any military plan involving Iran is going to be very difficult. We should not fool ourselves to think it will just be a strike and then it will be over,” said retired Gen. Anthony Zinni, former head of U.S. Central Command. “The Iranians will retaliate, and they have many possibilities in an area where there are many vulnerabilities, from our troop positions to the oil and gas in the region that can be interrupted, to attacks on Israel, to the conduct of terrorism,” he said. Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) said the White House relied too heavily on military power. “That is another example of the shoot-from-the-hip, cowboy diplomacy of this administration,” Kerry said (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, April 10). Tehran yesterday dismissed reports of U.S. military plans for Iran as “psychological warfare,” AFP reported. “We regard that (planning for air strikes) as psychological warfare stemming from America’s anger and helplessness,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 9). European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said today that the EU should look at imposing sanctions on Iran, AP reported. “We have to begin thinking about that possibility,” he said. “Any military action is definitely out of the question for us,” he said (Associated Press/Washington Post, April 10). ElBaradei is expected in Iran on Wednesday, AFP reported. He plans to talk “with a number of the Iranian officials during his stay and Iran’s outstanding issues with the IAEA will be discussed,” said an Iranian nuclear negotiator. Iran’s representative to the agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh said IAEA inspections this week were “routine” and not related to the recent Security Council resolution. “He’s not going there to negotiate any settlement. His going there is part of an ongoing verification process and this requires face-to-face contact,” said one diplomat at the agency (Agence France-Presse II/IranMania.com, April 8). The deputy head of Iran’s atomic organization, Mohammad Saidi, said today that agency inspectors, who arrived in Iran on Friday, were visiting Isfahan and would go to Natanz later in the day, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse III/Yahoo!News, April 10). Elsewhere, Undersecretary of State Joseph is visiting Persian Gulf states to press for tighter controls to stop any shipment of nuclear-related equipment to Iran, Reuters reported on Friday. Joseph was in the United Arab Emirate on Friday. He was scheduled to make stops in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar before returning to Washington later this week, according to officials (Carol Giacomo, Reuters, April 7).
Implementation of the U.S.-Indian nuclear technology sharing deal could be a year away, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said Friday (see GSN, April 7). Boucher said he believed Congress would approve enabling legislation for the agreement “because it is part and parcel of a new relationship with India. People want to support it.” While lawmakers could “vote in a few months from now,” Boucher said it might be “maybe a year at best” before the deal is fully implemented, according to Agence France-Presse. “There are a lot of puzzle pieces (to put together),” Boucher said while in New Delhi to meet with Indian Foreign Ministry officials (Agence France Presse/Gulf Times, April 7). The White House has “pushed for India to further define its ‘minimum credible [nuclear] deterrent’ and we continue that today,” Boucher said Friday, according to the Press Trust of India. “We see this as an absolutely necessary step towards decreasing tensions in Asia,” he said (Press Trust of India II, April 7). Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran rejected the request, PTI reported Saturday. “What our credible minimum deterrent would be is really for India to decide,” he said. “Certainly there is no responsibility on part of India to declare what its minimum deterrent is,” he added, noting that he had said just that to U.S. officials. Saran also responded to criticism of the deal from former Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who argued that the agreement would force a legally binding freeze on nuclear testing upon New Delhi. “There is nothing legally binding,” Saran said. “But it is a fact that there is a U.S. law, which is of long-standing nature, which says that the U.S. will be obliged to stop all cooperation with a country which explodes a nuclear explosive device.” The law “has nothing to do with the initiative which is being negotiated with India,” Saran added (Press Trust of India II, April 8). Saran said congressional failure to approve the deal would be a blow to ties between the two countries, the Associated Press reported. There would “be a disappointment, a sense of lowered expectations that will impact on India-U.S. ties,” he told New Delhi Television. However, Saran expressed optimism about the deal in light of congressional testimony last week from U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. “After (Rice’s) testimony, it’s clear that opinion in the Congress is certainly looking at this initiative in a much more favorable light,” he said (Associated Press, April 9). House Majority Leader Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) yesterday was to lead a team of eight lawmakers to India for talks on the nuclear deal with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other officials, Agence France-Presse reported. The trip is scheduled from Sunday to Wednesday. “The delegation will discuss the recent initiatives between the two countries, including the importance of civil nuclear cooperation in strengthening the international nonproliferation system,” according to a statement from Hastert’s office. U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) was also scheduled to visit India, Pakistan and Afghanistan between Saturday and April 15, AFP reported. “The U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation agreement will be among the specific issues that I will discuss with Indian officials,” Hagel said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 7).
Pakistan said Friday it could accept a freeze on production of nuclear weapons in South Asia and again argued that it should be allowed access to nuclear technology along with India, the Pakistani newspaper Dawn reported (see GSN, April 6). “Pakistan has already made a proposal of strategic restraint regime in South Asia. These things can be discussed in the context of our proposal,” Foreign Office spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam said when asked about the government’s stance on the call by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for a South Asian moratorium on nuclear weapons production. “And that is why we have also emphasized a package approach for the region,” Aslam added (Dawn/BBC Monitoring, April 8). Meanwhile, Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri on Saturday urged the Nuclear Suppliers Group to adopt an even-handed approach on nuclear cooperation in South Asia, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported. Kasuri told Lars Danielsson, state secretary chief of staff to the prime minister of Sweden, that the package approach would head off an arms race and support a strategic balance in the region. Sweden is a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group, which governs nuclear-related exports and facilitates peaceful nuclear trade (Associated Press of Pakistan/BBC Monitoring, April 8).
North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan said Saturday there was little hope that the six-party talks on his nation’s nuclear program would resume, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 7). “The U.S already knows what they should do to resume six-party talks,” Kim said after arriving in Japan for a security conference, referring to the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions against North Korean entities accused of conducting illicit financial activity. He added, however, that he “would not reject” a request for bilateral talks with the United States at the conference. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill was said to have no plans for a bilateral meeting with the North Korean delegation, according to the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo. South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Chun Young-woo, however, said he met with Kim for 90 minutes Saturday afternoon to discuss the talks (Kwang-Tae Kim, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, April 8). Chun said Pyongyang still had serious reservations about resuming talks, Reuters reported. “I have not seen a situation that would give much hope or expectation for a breakthrough,” he said. “North Korea seems to be doing a lot of hard thinking about returning to the six-way talks,” he added. “Until those difficult issues are resolved, it would be difficult for the North and the United States to meet bilaterally” (Jack Kim, Reuters, April 9). Lead Japanese negotiator Kenichiro Sasae met with Kim for about two hours Saturday in Tokyo, the Asahi newspaper reported. Sasae encouraged North Korea to return to nuclear talks and to resolve the dispute over Japanese citizens abducted by Pyongyang during the Cold War, AP reported (Associated Press/China Post, April 9). Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso also urged North Korea to return to the table, Reuters reported. “Nothing will move forward unless North Korea takes part in the six-party talks again,” Aso told public broadcaster NHK. “I believe the United States will have talks with North Korea” (Kim, Reuters, April 9). North Korean Defense Minister Kim Il Chol warned on Saturday that Pyongyang would not wait for a U.S. attack, AP reported. “Now, the U.S. talks about six-party talks, but in reality, it has no interest in the talks and ... is seeking a chance to attack while putting us on its pre-emptive strike list,” he said (Kim, Associated Press, April 8).
The U.S. Air Force conducted a successful test of an unarmed ICBM on Friday, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 17). The Minuteman 3 was fired at 6 a.m. from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and hit a target 5,100 miles away, near Guam, 30 minutes later, said Maj. Todd Fleming. The test was primarily aimed at showing that the missile remains accurate at long distances, AP reported. Vandenberg tests approximately five Minuteman missiles per year, Fleming said (Associated Press/ABCNews.com, April 7).
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