Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (left) met yesterday in Tehran with Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (Getty Images). Iranian President Suggests Nuclear Advances Iran may be developing more sophisticated nuclear technology that would enable it to significantly accelerate its uranium enrichment capability, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, April 14)...Full Story

U.S. Readies Billions for Nuclear Detection The United States in the next few weeks plans to issue or accept bids for contracts worth $3 billion for sensors designed to detect nuclear or radiological material being smuggled into the country, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, March 28)...Full Story

China, Japan Seek Extension for CW Weapons Disposal Beijing and Tokyo next week plan to request a five-year extension for disposing of chemical weapons abandoned in China during World War II by the retreating Japanese army, Kyodo News reported yesterday (see GSN, March 21)...Full Story

	Monday, April 17, 2006

U.S. Slow to Prepare Mobile Hospitals The United States has fallen badly behind in efforts to develop mobile field hospitals that could be erected to respond to natural catastrophes or terrorist attacks, USA Today reported today (see GSN, Dec. 8, 2005). The process of establishing standards for how such facilities should be operated remains unfinished, as does a Homeland Security Department program to develop a prototype hospital, according to medical and disaster response officials. The department “by and large has not been serious about the medical issues,” said Jerome Hauer, former head of the Office of Public Health Preparedness. “They don’t get the notion that during a disaster one of the fundamental needs is taking care of the large numbers of patients.” Department official Bennet Waters said the Bush administration “recognizes the need for these capabilities” and would seek additional funds from Congress to advance them. The mobile hospitals would differ from military field hospitals by offering services to people of all ages and health conditions (Mimi Hall, USA Today, April 17). Back to top

Indian Military Considers WMD Preparedness Military chiefs in India today began a weeklong conference to examine their troops’ preparedness for conflicts involving weapons of mass destruction, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, March 14). Military scientists were attending the annual meeting for the first time, joining the heads of the Indian army, navy and air force. “The focus is on our military’s preparedness to fight in environments of [nuclear, biological and chemical] warfare and the progress our scientists have made so far to provide protective technologies,” according to one commander. Scientists at the meeting are expected to discuss antiradiation clothing, tanks and armored carriers resistant to WMD attacks and battlefield command stations, AFP reported. An Indian paramilitary unit in March announced that it would organize two specially trained anti-WMD battalions by the end of 2006. “We have achieved a lot but still we have miles to go in this direction,” the commander said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 17). Back to top       U.S. Buying Stolen Computer Drives U.S. officials are trying to buy back computer drives stolen from a military base in Afghanistan, the Associated Press reported Saturday (see GSN, April 13). Some of the drives contain sensitive military information, including the names of soldiers who have gone through nuclear, chemical and biological warfare training. Afghan employees at the U.S. base in Bagram are believed to have stolen the drives and passed them on to local merchants. Soldiers on Thursday made the rounds of a local market with “a box full of afghanis (the Afghan currency), buying all they could find,” according to one merchant. “They said they wanted them all and price wasn’t important,” the shopkeeper said. Dozens of the drives remained on the market Friday, AP reported. Most contained no information or were not functioning. However, three working drives contained a military discharge certificate, troop resumes and photographs of Air Force One taken while U.S. President George W. Bush was in Afghanistan in March (Daniel Cooney, Associated Press/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, April 15). Back to top

Iranian President Suggests Nuclear Advances Iran may be developing more sophisticated nuclear technology that would enable it to significantly accelerate its uranium enrichment capability, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, April 14). In an announcement last week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Tehran had reached an enrichment milestone by concentrating a small amount of uranium to the levels needed for nuclear reactor fuel. He also said the nation was “presently conducting research” on a more efficient uranium enrichment centrifuge, known as the P-2, which could quadruple the production capacity of the nation’s current centrifuges. That claim has drawn the attention of officials at the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been investigating Iran’s nuclear program for the past three years. Ahmadinejad’s assertion contradicts earlier descriptions submitted to the agency claiming that research into P-2 centrifuges was virtually dormant. The president’s claim was “the first time I’ve ever heard the Iranians admit” to pursuing the more efficient technology, said U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph. Iran “has never come clean on this program, and now its president is talking about it,” he added. If Iran has advanced work on the better centrifuge, Western intelligence agencies might need to adjust their estimates of how soon Iran could potentially produce enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. “This is a much better machine,” said one European diplomat. U.S. intelligence services have judged that Iran could produce enough material for a weapon somewhere between 2010 and 2015 with its less sophisticated enrichment technology, the Times reported. IAEA officials have persistently questioned Iran’s previous claims about P-2 research in part because its black market supplier delivered complete P-2 centrifuges to Libya and North Korea, according to the Times. Former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, the leader of the black market network who has been questioned by Pakistani officials since being placed under house arrest, has provided little information on how much P-2 information he delivered to Iran. His reluctance led to his dismissal as head of Pakistan’s nuclear program, according to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. After learning that Khan planned a secretive visit to Iran in 2001, Musharraf questioned him about the purpose of the trip, but Khan refused to provide details. “I said, ‘What the hell do you mean?   You want to keep a secret from me?’” Musharraf said in an interview with Times reporters for a documentary called “Nuclear Jihad” that is scheduled to air tonight on Discovery Times. “So these are the things which led me to very concrete suspicions,” Musharraf said, “and we removed him.” Khan’s involvement has fueled U.S. charges that Iran has sought uranium enrichment technology for weapons purposes rather than for power reactor fuel.  “A.Q. Khan was not in the business of civil nuclear power development,” said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in the documentary (Broad/Sanger, New York Times, April 17). New Construction Meanwhile, recent satellite imagery appears to have shown that Iran has made significant progress in defending its uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz from attack by burying them under several meters of dirt and concrete, according to a report released Friday by the Institute for Science and International Security. A comparison of site photos taken since September 2002 show that the floor of the facility is about 25 meters below ground level and the roofs to the various chambers of the site are about 17 meters above the bottom, leaving them 8 meters below ground level. The images indicate that layers of dirt, cement and concrete have been laid on top of the submerged structures, the report says. In addition, workers appear to be expanding or reinforcing the nation’s uranium conversion site at Isfahan, the report says. A satellite photo taken March 26 shows evidence of a new tunnel entrance to the site. “This new tunnel entrance is indicative of a new underground facility or the further expansion of the existing one,” the report says. “Iran is taking extraordinary precautions to try to protect its nuclear assets,” said institute President David Albright (Mark Heinrich, Reuters/Washington Times, April 17). Albright also cautioned that IAEA inspectors are losing ground in their efforts to investigate Iran’s uranium enrichment equipment. Since Iran ended its suspension of its enrichment activities earlier this year, it has also ceased transparency measures that exceeded the minimum required by its nuclear safeguards agreement with the agency. “As a result, the IAEA is slowly losing knowledge regarding the use and location of many of these items,” the report says (ISIS report, April 14). Smuggling Efforts Continue While Iran received much of its nuclear technology from the now-closed Khan network, it continues to pursue WMD and conventional weapons technology from other parts of the world, including the United States, the Washington Post reported today. Arms dealers have attempted to ship nuclear-weapon applicable technology as well as aerospace equipment from the United States to Iran, according to U.S. officials. The nuclear equipment included machines for assessing the strength of steel, and the aerospace technology included components for missiles and fighter jets. “Iran’s weapons acquisition program is becoming more organized,” said Stephen Bogni, acting chief of the Arms and Strategic Technology Investigations Unit of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The smuggling efforts have often involved attempts to ship equipment that is legal to own in the United States but illegal to export to Iran, officials said. “Most of the material the Iranians are seeking is aging technology, but it’s technology that could still hurt the United States and its allies today,” said Serge Duarte, acting special agent in charge of ICE investigations in San Diego (John Pomfret, Washington Post, April 17). Lawmakers Debate Diplomatic Strategy In Washington, some U.S. senators have urged the Bush administration to engage Iran directly in a diplomatic effort to resolve the nuclear crisis, while others have supported the Bush strategy of letting France, Germany and the United Kingdom lead the way. “We’ve been basically a nonparticipant,” said Senator Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) in an interview with Fox News Sunday. “I don’t think we’ve been muscular enough, if you will, on the diplomatic front” (Associated Press I, April 17). “I happen to believe that you need direct talks,” he said. “It doesn’t mean you agree with them. It doesn’t mean you support them.  It doesn’t mean you have formal diplomatic relations. But there’s an option.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) agreed that direct U.S.-Iranian talks might help. “I think that would be useful,” he told ABC’s “This Week” yesterday. “The Iranians are part of the energy picture,” he said. “We need to talk about that” (Hope Yen, Associated Press II/Boston Globe, April 17). Lugar’s Republican colleague Mitch McConnell (Ky.) disagreed however. “This is a situation that cries out for U.N. Security Council action and for multilateral sanctions that actually mean something,” he told Fox News yesterday. “Nobody seriously thinks there is a unilateral solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. It has to be done on a multilateral basis” (Associated Press I). Military Consequence In Tehran, Iranian officials warned that any military actions taken against the nation or its nuclear facilities would have grave consequences for the attackers. “You can start a war, but it won’t be you who finishes it,” Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said Friday. Specifically, he said U.S. troops stationed in neighboring Iraq and in the region were “vulnerable” (Agence France-Presse/IranMania.com, April 16). Iran’s response to an attack could come from a legion of suicide bombers, the London Sunday Times reported. As many as 40,000 trained bombers have been assembled in special battalions, according to the Times. Enrolled at a Tehran recruiting site recently, battalion volunteers were asked to indicate a preference for attacking U.S. targets in Iraq or Israeli targets, the Times reported (London Sunday Times, April 16). Back to top       U.S. Readies Billions for Nuclear Detection The United States in the next few weeks plans to issue or accept bids for contracts worth $3 billion for sensors designed to detect nuclear or radiological material being smuggled into the country, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, March 28). The choice for officials is between known technology of restricted capability and unproven equipment that costs more but potentially offers higher levels of accuracy. The Bush administration since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks has spent more than $5 billion on homeland security detection systems.  Not all the purchases have proven useful, the Post reported. An early monitoring system cost $300 million but was not able to differentiate between uranium and materials such as cat litter. New airport baggage screening systems that cost $1.2 billion initially offered no improvement over previous technology. “A lot of money we threw out there was wasted because the technology was not so good,” said James Carafano, national and homeland security senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation. A project to place 470 radiation monitors at sites including ports and mail facilities “was not based on any scientific, technical or cost-benefit analysis that was the next best to spend our dollars,” one senior federal scientist said. “Somewhere in there, just the importance of showing that you’re doing something … came into play.” Carafano and other analysts question the focus on preventing nuclear terrorism rather than other, potentially more likely, threats. “This is the equivalent of a comet hitting the planet. Of all the things that are in the world, why are we fixated on this one thing,” Carafano said. “Scanning containers full of sneakers for a ‘nuke in the box’ is not a really thoughtful thing.” The Bush administration has “hyped the threat, and that has been a political advantage,” said former Virginia Governor James Gilmore, who led a congressional commission on weapons of mass destruction. “You can’t rule out the possibility of something like this happening, but there isn’t any evidence that I’m aware of that al-Qaeda or other terrorists have their hands on these weapons.” Critics should not assume that strong intelligence could be gathered on the capabilities of terrorist organizations, said Vayl Oxford, head of Homeland Security’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office. Worst-case scenarios and vulnerabilities must be considered when planning U.S. defenses, he said. “If you don’t see a direct intelligence report that says there is something there, someone will leap to the conclusion the threat is not there,” Oxford said. “But I don’t think it’s political hype. It’s prudent planning to take action on this count. Sitting in hindsight, saying ‘Why didn’t we see it in the intelligence?’ is not the kind of hearing I want to go to.” The federal government plans to distribute thousands of monitors around the nation, from hand-held devices to portal detectors used to scan railcars and cargo containers. The United States, Canada and Mexico are preparing detector deployment plans, and Washington and London are looking to share technology, the Post reported. Oxford’s office in May plans to select a contractor for a $1.5 billion contract for deployment of thousands of Advanced Spectroscopic Portals by 2001. It is hoped the project would reduce the number of false alarms by monitors. The office also this month plans to take bids for development and eventual installation of automated systems designed to scan for nuclear materials or of materials such as lead that might indicate shielding of such a substance. One bidder for the ASP contract, Ametek Inc., warned against repeating mistakes and promoted the accuracy of its product. “Post-9/11, money has been spent on nuclear radiation measurement technology that doesn’t work. Here we are again,” said Ametek spokesman William Burke. “Are we going to … take the technology that will actually do the job?” It would take $20 billion and 20 years to prepare a domestic nuclear detection system, according to Richard Wagner Jr., head of the Nuclear Vision Project at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. While there is value in detection spending, “We shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking that provides a very reliable defense,” said Matthew Bunn, senior research associate at the Managing the Atom project at Harvard University. “These materials are small and easy to hide,” he said. “It’s really like a football team defending on its own goal line, but the goal line is thousands of miles wide, and millions of legitimate vehicles and passengers pass over it every year,” he said (Spencer Hsu, Washington Post, April 15). Back to top       Russia Plans Mobile ICBM Deployment This Year Russia plans this year to deploy the first mobile regiment of its most modern ICBM, the Topol-M, RIA Novosti reported last week (see GSN, Jan. 31). Five regiments of silo-based Topol-Ms have been deployed to date, according to the missile’s chief designer, Yuri Solomonov, director of the Institute of Thermal Technology (see GSN, April 14). He said the missile was 15-20 years ahead of technology available in other nations (RIA Novosti, April 13). Back to top       Chinese Defense Minister Visits South Korea Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan is in South Korea for talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and other matters, Asia Pulse reported today (see GSN, April 14). Cao began his five-day visit on Saturday. He is expected to discuss his recent trip to North Korea with South Korean defense chief Yoon Kwang-ung (Asia Pulse, April 17). Back to top

China, Japan Seek Extension for CW Weapons Disposal Beijing and Tokyo next week plan to request a five-year extension for disposing of chemical weapons abandoned in China during World War II by the retreating Japanese army, Kyodo News reported yesterday (see GSN, March 21). Between 300,000 and 400,000 munitions remain in Dunhua, Jilin Province. They cannot all be found and eliminated by the present 2007 deadline set by the Chemical Weapons Convention, according to Japanese government sources. China and Japan are expected to ask the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the treaty monitoring agency, for an extension allowed under the pact to spring 2012, Kyodo reported. Roughly 40,000 shells have been processed since the disposal effort began in 2000. Japan has yet to receive permission from China to build disposal facilities in the area, which is slowing the effort, Kyodo reported (Kyodo News/Yahoo!News, April 16). Back to top       Officials Investigate Safety Problems at Aberdeen Officials have begun an investigation into the cause of two power outages on consecutive days last week in chemical weapon laboratories at the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland (see GSN, April 13). Although both incidents involved the failure of fans that protect researchers from deadly vapors, the outages occurred in separate buildings and site officials believe their timing was a coincidence, the Baltimore Sun reported Friday. Nobody was injured, but several workers could have been exposed to lethal chemical agents, according to the Sun. “It certainly has raised a lot of questions,” said Timothy McNamara, the facility’s safety, health and environment director. “They were unrelated operations — in two different buildings — with two unrelated electrical circumstances; however, both resulted in the (ventilations systems’) closing.” The first incident occurred Tuesday at the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense, where 15 employees were working with mustard and nerve agents. A computer that controlled the ventilation system failed and two workers went to a local hospital for observation. The following day at the Edgewood Chemical Biological Center, three staffers were working with liquid mustard, sarin, hydrogen cyanide and cyanogen chloride in a laboratory box when the box’s ventilation system stopped working. In both cases, the workers followed safety protocols by dialing 911, securing the chemicals and closing the laboratories before they evacuated, McNamara said. Local residents expressed concern over the events. “If they don’t have enough redundancy in their safety electrical systems, if they don’t have enough backup, that scares me,” said Richard Ochs, a former member of a citizens’ watchdog group. A final assessment by Aberdeen officials could take weeks, said facility spokesman George Mercer. The Maryland Environment Department is also investigating the incidents (Justin Fenton, Baltimore Sun, April 14). Back to top

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