Experts Say Bioterror Attack in Australia Unlikely

Security experts said today they did not expect Australia to face a bioterror attack, but added that prevention requires an understanding of the thinking of those who might attempt such a strike, the Australian Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 28).

The experts gathered at the Infectious Diseases and International Security Symposium in Sydney. Among topics discussed were biological weapons, their possible use by terrorists and avian flu, according to AAP.

Experts at the symposium agreed there was only a small chance of a biological attack against Australia.

“It still remains easier to make bangs than bugs,” said Sydney University professor John Hearn.

Australian Defense Force Academy global security expert Christian Enemark said that the threat of a biological attack was overstated following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

“From a government point of view, yes, you enunciate the worst-case scenario,” he said. “They feel as if they need to have covered the spread of possibilities.”

There have been only three historical cases of nonstate actors using biological weapons, according to AAP. Al-Qaeda was not involved in any of them. 

Australian Federal Police official James Robertson said the greatest concern in connection with a public health threat was panic.

“It seems to me that in this area our worst enemy is fear and it's fear of the unknown,” he said. 

He added that the public, security and health agencies must share “accurate, nonsensationalist information” on biological threats (Amy Coopes, Australian Associated Press, April 20).

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National Intelligence Office Budget Nears $1 Billion

A House intelligence committee report indicates that the proposed fiscal 2007 budget for the Office of the National Intelligence Director might be near $1 billion or more, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, April 12).

The funds are allocated for coordinating intelligence programs, preparing budgets for the 16 agencies within the intelligence community, and paying for the National Counterterrorism Center and other agencies that became part of the intelligence office. While the exact budget is classified, the report by the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence contains a Congressional Budget Office estimate of $990 million for the account from which office funds are collected, the Post reported.

The budget is about one-third the size of all CIA funding in all years prior to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Under the previous arrangement headed by the central intelligence director, the intelligence community management account totaled an annual average of less than $200 million, according to the Post (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, April 20).

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Kansas Law Creates New Terror Crimes

Kansas has instituted a law that creates three new terrorism-related crimes, Infozine.com reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 19).

Two of the crimes — terrorism and illegal use of weapons of mass destruction, both carrying a maximum penalty of life imprisonment, have no statute of limitation. They are subject to the state’s electronic surveillance law, according to Infozine.com.

Furthering the commission of the crimes of terrorism or illegal use of weapons of mass destruction carries a penalty between 147 months to 653 months.

“First and foremost we hope we never have to deal with acts of terrorism in our state,” said Governor Kathleen Sebelius. “However, these steps ensure we have the ability to appropriately deal with anyone who commits these heinous actions” (Infozine.com, April 19).

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Former British Ambassador Still Believes Iraq Might Have Had Weapons of Mass Destruction

The former British ambassador to the United States said yesterday he still believes Iraq might have possessed weapons of mass destruction prior to the U.S.-led invasion of the country, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, March 27).

“I am not convinced that somewhere, in a garage in Damascus or under a hill in Iran, there is some of the stuff that the intelligence picked up as being in Iraq,” said Christopher Meyer. “I think the verdict is not yet final.”

Meyer also said “the die was cast for war” before Prime Minister Tony Blair met with U.S. President George W. Bush on Jan. 31, 2003, to discuss the perceived threat from Baghdad.

“By the time that Tony Blair came to the meeting I was saying that, absent of a coup in Iraq or (then Iraqi president) Saddam (Hussein) suddenly deciding to go off into exile to some inhospitable place like Minsk, the die was cast for war,” he told Parliament’s foreign affairs committee.

“Blair had decided that the right thing to do was to be with the president of the United States whichever decision he chose to take ... to try to ensure he had the maximum influence possible,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 19).

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Weapon-Grade Uranium Returned to Russia From Uzbekistan

Authorities yesterday completed a multinational effort to transfer 139 pounds of spent research reactor fuel from Uzbekistan to Russia, the New York Times reported today. The move was funded by the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration as part of its Global Threat Reduction Initiative, a program intended to reduce the risk of terrorists stealing nuclear weapon-usable materials (see GSN, Sept. 14, 2004).

This is the first time spent fuel from a reactor in a former Soviet state has been returned to Russia, its country of origin. Previous transfers have involved fresh reactor fuel, according to the Times.

The United States this year has bankrolled four fuel transfers from Uzbekistan. This most recent transfer ends a period of significant cooperation between the two countries. Relations have deteriorated since last year, after Uzbek security forces opened fired on antigovernment demonstrators and escaped prisoners.

“This kind of cooperation is important, and is especially important when times are tough politically,” said Jon Purnell, the U.S. ambassador to Uzbekistan.

The fuel transfer to Russia cost about $11 million. U.S. officials said that fuel repatriation programs are a key component of nonproliferation efforts, as they consolidate materials that could be used in weapons.

The National Nuclear Security Administration supervises repatriation programs with help from the International Atomic Energy Agency and Russia. The programs, which began in 2002, have collected fuel from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Latvia.

According to the Times, the amount of spent fuel transferred was enough to make a crude nuclear weapon (C.J. Chivers, New York Times, April 20). 

An IAEA release said that highly enriched uranium was transferred from the 10-megawatt research reactor at Uzbekistan’s Institute of Nuclear Physics in Tashkent (International Atomic Energy Agency release, April 20)

Spent fuel from research reactors poses a significant proliferation danger, said Anthony Wier, a research associate at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.  

“The fact that it’s highly enriched uranium means that it could be fashioned into a nuclear bomb,” he said. When asked if the material is less of a proliferation concern because it could only be used to produce a crude nuclear weapon, he said, “A nuclear explosion is going to make for a bad day, crude or not.”

Before being irradiated in the Tashkent reactor, most of the fuel assemblies contained weapon-grade uranium, composed of 90 percent of the key isotope uranium 235.

“Because the reactor does not have a high enough burn-up, there’s still a very high enrichment level after it’s spent,” Wier said of the irradiated reactor fuel. “Potentially, it’s generally a problem for a lot of research reactors. It’s not as highly radioactive, so it generally doesn’t meet the kind of self-protecting standard” found in spent fuel from larger reactors (David Francis, Global Security Newswire, April 20).

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Top Diplomats Agree on Action, But No Plan on Iran

U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said yesterday that top diplomats from the U.N. Security Council’s five permanent members agreed that action must be taken in the nuclear standoff with Iran, though no concrete plan has been developed, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, April 19).

“Nearly every country is considering some form of sanctions, and this is a new development,” Burns said at the conclusion of a two-day meeting in Moscow. “Every country said that some type of action had to be taken … to, in effect, erect a barrier to Iran’s progress. So the challenge for us will be what can we all agree on.”

A source familiar with the talks said Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai offered criticism of Iran and that he had delivered a “tough message” to Tehran during a visit there en route to the Moscow meeting.

“All participants in the meeting agreed that urgent and constructive steps are demanded of Iran,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday.

The United States has asked the council to invoke Chapter 7 of the U.N. charter, which provides for the use of force and other measures “to maintain or restore international peace and security.” Russia has objected to such a move over concerns that it would open to the door to use of military force against Iran, the Post reported.

Russian officials said they would, however, discuss punitive options after the release of an International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran’s compliance with council demands that it halt uranium enrichment activities

“We are convinced of the need to wait for the IAEA report due at the end of the month,” Lavrov said (Peter Finn, Washington Post, April 20).

British Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday urged unity among the world powers, Agence France-Presse reported.

“I would have thought that this is the time for the world to send a clear and united message to the Iranian regime,” Blair said.

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy echoed Blair’s call.

“If, on the contrary, the Chinese and the Russians, if the international community is not united it makes it easy for the Iranians to continue” to defy international demands, he said.

Meanwhile, an Iranian delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi yesterday made a surprise visit to Moscow (Agence France-Presse I/IranMania.com, April 19).

A senior French official who attended the impromptu meeting between British, French and German officials and the Iranian delegation said the group asked European countries to assist with Tehran’s plan to redouble its uranium enrichment effort, AFP reported.

“They asked the political directors to take note of this situation and invited them to negotiate in taking part in this enrichment program,” the French official said.

The official said the European officials told the Iranian delegation that there was “no question” of allowing the breach of any U.N. Security Council or International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions. They warned the delegation to freeze all sensitive nuclear work in line with those resolutions.

“If it does not, then far from creating a situation allowing the resumption of discussions, Iran will face measures that will isolate it further,” the French official said (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, April 19).

Diplomats told the Associated Press that the U.S. delegation to the International Atomic Energy Agency has over the past few days been gauging support for a special Board of Governors meeting on Iran.

State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said Washington was waiting for IAEA report.

“We will study that report carefully and decide on next steps at that time,” Ereli said (George Jahn, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, April 19).

“I believe we can make the diplomacy work,” U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday. “And long before we get to the point that we have to contemplate diplomacy failing I believe we have options at our disposal.”

She added, however, that potential U.S. military action could be unilateral.

“The right to self-defense does not necessarily require a U.N. Security Council resolution,” she said.

“It is important to note that the president doesn’t take any options off the table,” she said. “We are prepared to use measures at our disposal — political, economic or others — to persuade Iran” (Agence France-Presse III/Yahoo!News, April 19).

Senator Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Tuesday that the Bush administration should negotiate directly with Iran over its nuclear program, AP reported.

He also said the United States has no military option in Iran.

“We don’t have the resources to do it” due to continued involvement in Iraq, he said (Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, April 19).

Elsewhere, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has warned that it would be illegal for the United Kingdom to support any U.S. military action against Iran, while Blair has said that ruling out such action would send a message of weakness to Tehran, the London Independent reported today.

“I do not think this is the time to send a message of weakness,” Blair said yesterday.

Straw, meanwhile, has told other British Cabinet members that Attorney General Peter Goldsmith was unlikely to approve the legality of British military action because Iran does not pose a direct threat to the country (Brown/McSmith, The Independent, April 20).

A top Russian military officer said Moscow does not plan to intervene in any potential military conflict with Iran, AFP reported.

“You are asking which side Russia will take. Of course Russia will not, at least I as head of the general staff, suggest the use of force on side or the other, said Gen. Yury Baluyevsky.

He added that he did not think military action against Iran was likely to occur.

“In my view a military solution to the Iranian problem would be a political and military mistake,” he said (Agence France-Presse IV/Sunday Times, April 19).

Russia plans to wait for the IAEA report later this month before deciding how to proceed on the issue, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak told ITAR-Tass today.

“We’ll determine our reaction depending on the contents of the report,” he said.

“The IAEA has ideas of what is happening and what is not happening in Iran,” Kislyak said. “We’ll be leaning on these evaluations.”

Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency head Sergei Kiriyenko said construction by Moscow of the Bushehr nuclear power plant does not create a proliferation threat.

“Any country of the world has the right to accessible and cheap nuclear energy,” he said.

“When the intergovernmental agreement on the return of [spent] fuel to Russia was concluded last year, the international community removed all questions on the construction of the nuclear power station in Bushehr,” he said (ITAR-Tass, April 20).

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to discuss Iran’s nuclear activities next week, Reuters reported (Reuters, April 19).

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Baltic Sea Chemical Weapons Resolution Passes

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe last week passed a resolution focusing on ecological threats from World War II-era chemical weapons dumped in the Baltic Sea, the Baltic Times reported (see GSN, Jan. 13).

Russia and Germany last fall agreed to build a $5 billion gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea. However, Baltic states fear that construction could disturb the weapons, which have been resting on the sea floor for 60 years after being dumped by the former Soviet Union and its allies.

Environmentalists in Lithuania claim there is a real threat that weapons would be struck during construction of the pipeline. Scientists have not agreed on the risk posed by the weapons, but many believe that an ecological disaster is possible, the Times reported (Baltic Times, April 19).

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Chinese Company Officials Visit United States to Lobby for End to Weapons-Related Sanctions

A delegation from a Chinese company accused of involvement in weapons proliferation by the Bush administration is accompanying President Hu Jintao on a visit to the United State to lobby for the lifting of sanctions, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, May 23, 2003).

The White House in 2003 accused state-owned China North Industries Corp. (NORINCO) of aiding Iran’s ballistic missile program. The United States prohibited exports by the company and its subsidiaries to the United States, causing a rift before a previous meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and Hu. 

The government last year lifted the sanctions following pressure from China and customers in the Untied States, who lobbied for the import of products such as optic fiber and hunting rifles.

NORINCO still faces financial sanctions issued in December under the Iran Nonproliferation Act. These restrictions forbid the company from receiving sensitive U.S. exports, participating in military trade with the United States or receiving contracts or aid from the U.S. government.

“NORINCO is the poster child for serial proliferators,” said Wade Boese, research director of the Arms Control Association. 

When asked about the delegation in the United States, company official Zhang Guoqing said, “I don't know about this matter, but if things are as you say then it would be very secret. I suggest you do not ask any more questions.”

NORINCO Vice President He Xiadong is scheduled tomorrow to tell the American Bar Association how his company meets Chinese export control standards.

The company is helping Iran to develop the subway in Tehran. Some analysts suggest that NORINCO’s business with Iran might be more lucrative than its business with the United States (Guy Dinmore, Financial Times, April 20).

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U.S. Senator Slams Iran’s Election to U.N. Panel

U.S. Senator Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) yesterday called for the United States to divert funds from the U.N. Disarmament Commission to humanitarian efforts in response to the selection of Iran as vice chairman of the panel, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 13, 2004).

“The election of Iran as a vice-chair of the U.N. Disarmament Commission at the same time as Iran clandestinely pursues its own nuclear ambitions provides yet another example of the U.N.’s inability to establish credible institutions to deal with global issues,” Coleman said in a statement. “Having the Iranians serve on this commission is like asking the fox to guard the hens, and will only ensure its ineffectiveness” (Frederic Frommer, Associated Press/West Central Tribune, April 20).

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