Analysts See Possible Shift in U.S. “Regime Change” Policy

Some U.S. foreign policy analysts believe that the Bush administration’s consideration of toppling governments as a primary response to WMD proliferation is on the decline, the Christian Science Monitor reported today (see GSN, May 19).

“The days of ‘regime change’ and the days of being tough with regard to Iran and North Korea are waning, and they are waning because the influence of the people who championed those positions — [Vice President Dick] Cheney, [Defense Secretary Donald] Rumsfeld, and [U.N. Ambassador John] Bolton — is not as great as it once was,” said Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Washington.

The term “regime change” has come to mean not only the United States removing dangerous leaders from power, but also supporting internal dissident movements intent on overthrowing their own governments, according to the Monitor.

The U.S. announcement last week that it would restore full diplomatic relations with Libya (see GSN, May 16), in conjunction with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s framing of the decision as a message to Iran and North Korea, led to speculation about a policy shift.

World powers are scheduled to meet tomorrow in London to discuss a new package of incentives and negative consequences to be presented to Iran in an effort to persuade it to give up its uranium enrichment program. European officials have said that while they understand U.S. concerns about providing security guarantees to Tehran or conducting bilateral talks with the regime, Washington did both to press Tripoli into abandoning its nonconventional weapons programs.

“[Libyan leader Col. Muammar] Qadhafi wanted to be certain that [the U.S.] goal was not to kill him or to end his regime,” said one European diplomat. “Until the day [the U.S.] says that [to Iran], we may be in a stalemate.”

Nonproliferation experts, however, have said the restoration of relations with Libya and renewed debate on North Korea could indicate a move by the Bush administration toward separating ideology from the national security goal of curbing WMD proliferation.

“If the U.S. is signaling it is no longer mixing regime change and its nuclear nonproliferation objectives, that would be very useful,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. 

He added that the U.S. plan on dealing with North Korea is “not working,” and the lack of options on Iran could be leading to consideration of new alternatives.

“[Bush administration officials] may have learned their own lesson from Libya — that the most effective way to persuade a rogue state to dismantle its WMD program is to assure that state that its government won’t be overthrown,” Kimball said.

Sokolski, however, said he believes Qadhafi eliminated his WMD efforts because he believed he was “next on the list” for removal from power after deposed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

“If you don’t have something to hold over these regimes, it can be seen as weakness,” he said.

Other experts remain doubtful that the Bush administration is turning its back on regime change at all. 

“I don’t see the administration buying into that perspective any more than I see them giving the nuclear problem parity with their other concerns about these regimes,” said Robert Einhorn of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Still others believe there is an ongoing tension and debate on the issue within the administration.

“We’re seeing the ascendancy of the pragmatists over the ideologues, but we don’t know yet if that rise is anything definitive,” said Joseph Cirincione, senior vice president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress.

Cirincione said he believes that debate within the White House over potential overtures to North Korea “may be the first step in a reorientation of U.S. proliferation policy.”

However, he added that the administration would have to admit that regime change is not an option to make such a move convincing to Pyongyang.

“The day Vice President Cheney gives a speech about negotiating with the North Koreans, then it will be a done deal,” he said (Howard LaFranchi, Christian Science Monitor, May 23).

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White House Open to Changes to India Deal

The White House could accept changes to its planned civilian nuclear technology cooperation deal with India in order to see it approved in Congress, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said yesterday (see GSN, May 22).

“We’re trying to be understanding of congressional prerogatives and flexible in our approach provided that it results in really … moving the legislation forward,’ Boucher said in an interview with Reuters.

“We haven’t quite reached closure yet on how that might happen, but we’re certainly open to suggestions from the Hill,” he added. 

The Bush administration hopes to see the agreement approved within the next two months, Boucher said. He called on New Delhi to respond officially to the U.S. draft of the plan. “The sooner they can get back to us, the sooner it helps move this along.”

India has yet to conduct significant talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding monitoring of all civilian nuclear sites required by the deal, Reuters reported.

There is talk among experts that the government in New Delhi, facing opposition to the deal at home, might be reconsidering the agreement.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns is scheduled to discuss the plan with Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran this week in London. Burns plans to tell Saran that “we’ll continue to work with you. … We need to move forward together,” Boucher said.

National security adviser Stephen Hadley is due to meet Wednesday for talks on the deal with senior members of the House International Relations Committee.

Ranking committee Democrat Tom Lantos (Calif.) has devised a plan under which lawmakers would agree to support the plan but delay making the necessary changes to U.S. law until after Congress had studied the final agreement and the IAEA safeguards pact.

“We understand there is significant sentiment in support [in Congress] of the concept Lantos put in his legislation (and) that others have other observations or conditions they’d like to insert,” Boucher said. “We’re trying to work with them” (Carol Giacomo, Reuters/AlertNet, May 23).

The U.S.-Indian deal opens the door for similar offers to other countries, said Scott Sagan, director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation.

“It will set a precedent for other similar deals including China and Pakistan,” Sagan said, according to the Press Trust of India. “That would be a serious setback for global security.”

“Our goal should be to minimize the costs while keeping the benefits,” he added during a seminar organized by the PIR Center (Press Trust of India/Hindustan Times, May 22).

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Bolton Urges Iran to Give Up Nuke Ambitions

Iranian officials should relinquish their suspected nuclear weapons ambitions to ensure that they remain in power, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said yesterday (see GSN, May 22).

Bolton said later that his comments were not a threat of regime change against the government in Tehran, the Associated Press reported. He said, rather, that by following Libya’s lead in eliminating its WMD programs Iran could see improved relations with the international community and avoid potential penalties from the U.N. Security Council.

“This is a sign to the rulers in Tehran that if they give up their long-standing support for terrorism and they give up their pursuit of weapons of mass destruction that their regime can stay in place and that they can have a different relationship with the United States and the rest of the world,” he said.

Bolton expressed skepticism that Iran would accept a new incentives package to be considered by world powers tomorrow in London. He noted that Tehran had rejected similar European incentives over the last three years.

“Needless to say, they haven’t yet commented on the package of disincentives but you can imagine what their reaction to that will be,” he said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press I/Deseret Morning News, May 23).

Tehran announced yesterday that it would continue to develop an industrial-scale uranium enrichment capacity, Agence France-Presse reported.

“The right to enrichment within the framework of the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] and under the surveillance of the [International Atomic Energy Agency] is an absolute right,” said Iranian spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham.

“Nuclear technology is a right that nobody can challenge, and all Iranians are unanimous in claiming this right,” he said (Pierre Celerier, Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, May 22).

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was in Washington today for talks on the Iranian nuclear crisis and other issues, Reuters reported.

“I don’t want to go into details,” a senior Israeli official said about the planned discussions with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other top U.S. officials. “I can tell you that the coordination we had in the past is going to continue and probably improve” (Jeffrey Heller, Reuters, May 23).

Arab nations on the Persian Gulf support the European efforts to resolve the nuclear crisis, but also hope for direct talks with Iran, AFP reported yesterday.

Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah met yesterday with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

“We expressed our great respect for the German side for its constant efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution that is acceptable for all the parties concerned,” he said.

Steinmeier said the Omani official shared his fears about the possibility of an Iranian nuclear capability (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, May 22).

However, Arab leaders sent mixed messages on the issue, AP reported.

United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan said the Gulf Cooperation Council, a group of the region’s Arab countries, planned to send a “low-level Omani delegation” to Tehran to express the organization’s concerns about the nuclear program.

“There are worries, no doubt,” Abdullah said.

Earlier in the day, though, Alawi denied that there were plans for a diplomatic mission to Tehran.

“I personally am planning no direct contact with Teheran. Those are just ideas,” he said.

“A Tehran visit on behalf of the GCC is not on the agenda,” he added (Lara Sukhtian, Associated Press II/Khaleej Times, May 23).

Meanwhile, China told visiting U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan that the international community must pursue diplomacy to resolve the issue, AFP reported.

“It is pivotal for the relevant parties to continue dialogue and negotiation, to increase trust and find a solution with broad support,” state media quoted State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan as telling Annan.

Tang said the issue concerned “the authority and efficiency of the international nonproliferation mechanism” (Agence France-Presse III/IranMania.com, May 22).

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U.S. Imposes New Rules on North Korean Flagged Ships

The Bush administration on May 8 began prohibiting U.S. and U.S.-based companies from flying North Korea’s flag on commercial seafaring vessels, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, May 19).

The Treasury Department’s Foreign Assets Controls Office announced the new rules, which prohibit companies operating within the United States from owning, leasing, operating or insuring ships carrying the flag of North Korea. Shipping companies were reportedly purchasing North Korean flag registry to evade rules and regulations imposed by other countries.

“North Korea is aggressively selling its flag as a flag of convenience,” said one U.S. official. “One would think that in light of North Korea’s illegal activities, U.S. companies would not want to be registered in North Korea.”

North Korea stands to incur significant financial losses if other countries follow Washington’s lead, U.S. officials told the Times. They said the State Department has been pressing Japan, South Korea and other nations to do so.

“We ... will expand as necessary and appropriate, our defensive measures to ensure that we can protect ourselves from the proliferation threats from North Korea, as well as from its illicit activities, including money laundering and counterfeiting,” Robert Joseph, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in February.

The State Department’s Asian affairs bureau fought the new sanctions over concerns that they would further antagonize Pyongyang (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, May 23).

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan today called on China to renew efforts at resolving the North Korean nuclear standoff, Agence France-Presse reported.

“We cannot allow the current stalemate to continue. All parties will need to redouble their efforts,” Annan said.

“China’s ongoing leadership will be essential to ensure that multilateral diplomatic efforts result in a (Korean) Peninsula free from nuclear weapons,” he said.

Annan discussed the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea with President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao while in China, according to AFP (Cindy Sui, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, May 23).

Former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung today urged Pyongyang to give up its nuclear programs as he prepares to visit the North next month, the Associated Press reported.

“North Korea should give up its nuclear (programs) completely and in return, the United States should guarantee North Korea’s security and lift financial sanctions,” Kim said.

Kim said he is visiting Pyongyang only as a private citizen, according to AP, but he is expected to discuss the nuclear issue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press/Pravda, May 23).

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Russia, U.S. Discuss Nuclear Security Cooperation

Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency head Sergei Kiriyenko met yesterday in Washington with U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and other key officials to discuss implementation of nuclear security measures, ITAR-Tass reported (see GSN, May 22).

“We have something to be proud of and … to report to the presidents,” Kiriyenko told journalists after a meeting of a working group established after the U.S.-Russia summit in Bratislava early last year (see GSN, Feb. 24, 2005). The two countries agreed then to boost security at Russian nuclear sites and to secure atomic material in other countries.

Kiriyenko said meeting participants noted that “much (has) been done for physical protection and the system of control and accounting in the two countries,” as well as for the nuclear fuel from Russian-supplied research reactors around the world.

The two sides also discussed energy security, he said.

“We share the view that it is impossible to ensure the energy security in the world for the next 30-40 years without the large-scale development of atomic energy. This needs cooperation from us, as the atomic energy market cannot be formed in one country, it is a global market,” Kiriyenko said.

Kiriyenko met with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Nils Diaz (Alexander Plakhov, ITAR-Tass, May 23).

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CW Sample Sent from Arkansas to Maryland

The U.S. Army shipped a small amount of chemical agent Saturday from the Pine Bluff Arsenal in Arkansas to the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 10).

A helicopter and plane were used to transport the material, which remained under guard by soldiers from the Army’s 22nd Chemical Battalion.

The samples, totaling less than half a cup of agent, are to undergo analysis to help identify safe processing options for bulk containers of the nerve agent sarin at Pine Bluff, AP reported. Chemical weapons incineration began there in March 2005 (Associated Press/WREG.com, May 22).

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U.S. Conducts Talks on Europe Missile Defense Site

The United States is continuing talks with nations in Europe about deploying U.S. missile defense interceptors there, but no immediate decisions are expected, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, May 22).

“We expect these consultations will continue in the coming weeks and months with countries that have expressed an interest,” said Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman. “We are collecting and evaluating information on a variety of sources prior to making any sort of a decision on whether or not to move forward on placing additional ballistic missile defenses in Europe.”

The New York Times reported yesterday that Poland and the Czech Republic are among the nations being considered to house 10 interceptors. A Czech official said such consideration is “just an idea, there is no concrete proposal.”

A Pentagon official last year said a European missile defense site, akin to the installation at Fort Greely, Alaska, could protect the United States and Europe against long-range missiles coming from the Middle East or North Africa. Radars would also be necessary for quick detection of incoming missiles, AFP reported.

Russia has expressed strong reservations about the plan, particularly regarding the potential selection of Poland for the interceptor site.

“This is not a proposal designed to counter Russia’s offensive missiles,” Whitman said. “When you’re talking about a small number of interceptors you wouldn’t be talking about the types of capabilities to counter Russian capabilities” (Jim Mannion, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, May 22).

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Japan Allows U.S. PAC-3 Deployment at Okinawa

Japan has approved the deployment of Patriot Advanced Capability 3 antimissile batteries at the U.S. Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Asia Pulse reported yesterday (see GSN, May 9).

The deployment, which could occur this fiscal year, would be designed to boost defenses against a possible missile attack from China or North Korea.

Japan and the United States are cooperating on a layered missile defense system that includes ground-based PAC-3 missiles and Standard Missile 3 interceptors fired from warships equipped with the Aegis ballistic missile defense system.

The Japanese air force also plans to position PAC-3 batteries at bases in the Saitama and Shizuoka prefectures near Tokyo, among other locations, Asia Pulse reported (Asia Pulse, May 22).

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California School Issues Homeland Security Degrees

San Diego State University on Sunday handed out its first homeland security master’s degree diplomas, amidst questions about the value of such academic programs that have developed since the Sept. 11 attacks, the Los Angeles Times reported (see GSN, May 9, 2005).

The California program and counterparts at other institutions consider terrorism, along with topics ranging from technology to disease outbreaks and drug trafficking. The societal effects of natural and man-made disasters are also studied.

“What we are trying to do is education, not training. There is a distinction,” said geology professor Eric Frost, co-director of the San Diego State program.

That means instruction would focus on prevention and response to a terrorist incident involving the nerve agent sarin, rather than installing and reading chemical detectors, the Times reported.

“There is not a specific outcome that we want you to do,” Frost said. “It’s that we want you to think. And people are going to wind up thinking in lots of different directions. Our society really needs that.”

New or expanded terrorism courses have developed at many universities in recent years, while a number of institutions have produced full bachelor’s or master’s degree programs.

Some observers question whether the programs are simply a revised assortment of existing courses designed to increase enrollment. Homeland security programs “could be stretched to include almost every discipline and topic imaginable,” the National Research Council said last year. However, efforts to produce such new programs are “a strength rather than a weakness,” the report said.

It takes a decade for certain academic subjects to come together, said Laura Petonito, acting university programs director at the U.S. Homeland Security Department.

“Homeland security may be one of those areas that is constantly evolving as we get new information,” she said (Larry Gordon, Los Angeles Times, May 22).

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