U.S. Representative Edward Markey (D–Mass.) warned yesterday that the pending U.S.-Indian nuclear deal could trigger a nuclear arms race (Mark Wilson/Getty Images). U.S.-Indian Deal Could Spark South Asian Arms Race, Markey Says By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The proposed U.S.-Indian nuclear deal could catalyze an arms race between India and Pakistan and poses “one of the greatest threats” to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Representative Ed Markey said yesterday (see GSN, June 21). India now produces enough fissile material to make between six to 10 nuclear weapons a year while operating its civilian nuclear program, said Markey (D-Mass.), co-chairman of the congressional Bipartisan Task Force on Nonproliferation...Full Story

Bush Administration Rejects Call for Pre-Emptive Strike on North Korean Missile Site U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney yesterday dismissed a call by former Defense Secretary William Perry to destroy a North Korean Taepodong 2 missile before it could be launched, the Financial Times reported (see GSN, June 22)...Full Story

EU, Iran to Discuss Compromise Offer European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said yesterday that he planned to meet soon with top Iranian officials to discuss the world powers’ nuclear compromise offer, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, June 22)...Full Story

	Friday, June 23, 2006

Thousands Participate in Three-Day Terrorism Drill More than 4,000 federal, state and local officials participated this week in a $3.5 million national terrorism crisis drill in Virginia, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, April 14). The ‘TOPOFF 4 Command Post Exercise,” sponsored by the Homeland Security Department, was fourth in a series of national terrorism preparedness and response exercises. In the exercise, terrorists smuggled two weapons of mass destruction into the United States. One exploded on the West Coast and the second was anticipated to explode in Washington (Leef Smith, Washington Post, June 23). The exercise “provided an excellent opportunity to strengthen the nation’s capacity for effective, coordinated action to address terrorist threats and major disasters,” said Homeland Security Undersecretary for Preparedness George Foresman in a release. “Although the scenario is simulated, the risk is real. Every TOPOFF exercise builds on real-world and exercise experiences and lessons learn prior exercises, this drill was not conducted in public. The FBI kept its portion of activities confidential. Part of the drill occurred at a “master control cell” where 100 people sat in front of telephones and laptop computers while others worked from other designated sites. “TOPOFF allows us to identify gaps in our plans and capabilities that can be proactively addressed, ensuring that the country is better prepared for a real-world event,” Foresman said.  “The exercise is a real-time test of our planning, communications, and interagency decision-making capabilities during a crisis” (U.S. Homeland Security Department release, June 22) The next, full-scale TOPOFF drill is planned for next year in three states and territories (Smith, Washington Post). Back to top

Bush Hails Proliferation Security Initiative U.S. President George W. Bush today called for greater international cooperation in halting WMD proliferation, hailing the successes of the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 22). “Since this initiative was launched in Poland in May 2003, it has grown from a handful of nations to a global partnership of more than 70 countries,” Bush said in a statement read by Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph. “The PSI is dedicated to stopping all aspects of the proliferation trade, and denying terrorists, rogue states and their supplier networks access to WMD-related materials and delivery systems,” the statement says. “I commend all member nations for their readiness to take on this vital task and I urge all responsible states to join this global effort to end the WMD proliferation threat,” it ads. Delegations from nearly 70 countries met today in Poland to review the initiative’s first three years and future goals, according to AFP (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 23). “We have come a long way in three years,” Joseph said. Joseph said the initiative has led to “a good number of interdictions” of WMD-related materials. He said many interdictions are not discussed publicly due to the sensitivity of the intelligence involved. He called the 2003 interception of the BBC China, which was carrying centrifuge components to Libya, the initiative’s greatest success. “This was probably the greatest nonproliferation success story of past decades,” he told AP (see GSN, May 16). “In terms of the Libyan decision to give up its weapons program it was an immediate effect” (Associated Press, June 23). Back to top       Egypt Joins U.S. Nonproliferation Programs Egypt yesterday joined two efforts intended to avert the smuggling of nuclear or radioactive material into the United States, the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration said (see GSN, June 21). The United States and Egypt signed a Declaration of Principles yesterday that implements the Megaports Initiative and the Container Security Initiative. Oman, Honduras and Jamaica have also signed declarations committing them to the nonproliferation programs (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, June 22). Back to top

U.S.-Indian Deal Could Spark South Asian Arms Race, Markey Says By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The proposed U.S.-Indian nuclear deal could catalyze an arms race between India and Pakistan and poses “one of the greatest threats” to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Representative Ed Markey said yesterday (see GSN, June 21). India now produces enough fissile material to make between six to 10 nuclear weapons a year while operating its civilian nuclear program, said Markey (D-Mass.), co-chairman of the congressional Bipartisan Task Force on Nonproliferation. However, if the United States ensures a steady stream of nuclear fuel for India’s power reactors — one of the provisions of the deal — India could devote domestic fissile material production to its military program. That means India could produce as many as 50 warheads a year, Markey said, citing a recent report by The Hindu, an Indian newspaper. A former Indian intelligence official said Indian reactors operating outside the view of international inspectors could produce an additional 130 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium annually, The Hindu reported. Citing recent conversations with high-level Pakistani government officials, Markey said Islamabad would keep pace with any increased Indian weapons production. “The Pakistanis are telling me they are not going to stand still and let the Indians gain an exponential advantage over them,” he said during a hearing of the House Homeland Security Prevention of Nuclear and Biological Attack Subcommittee. Both nations have developed and tested nuclear weapons, and neither has signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. One Bush administration official, however, said yesterday that India is unlikely to greatly increase its weapons production. “We have some expectations that India will not be producing many, many weapons,” said Jack David, deputy assistant defense secretary for international security policy, speaking at the subcommittee hearing. Critics of the deal have called for India to cease production of fissile material and open all nuclear facilities to full inspections. India has rejected notions of a fissile material cutoff, and under the proposed agreement military nuclear facilities would remain outside the scope of international inspectors. Earlier in the day, Markey argued that the deal would place the United States in violation of a key restriction of the treaty, which requires states to not aid a nation in the construction of nuclear weapons. “Are we going to allow the Bush administration to casually throw the Nonproliferation Treaty into the trash heap of history?” Markey asked at a press conference. Opposing this deal is not “anti-India. It is anti-weapons of mass destruction,” he said. “With this deal the Bush administration … will trigger once again an arms race on this planet.” Markey, along with the Friends Committee on National Legislation, presented 150 Campbell’s soup-type cans to members of Congress — suggesting they “can” the U.S.-Indian agreement. The back of the can’s red and white label depicts a mushroom cloud. While the administration is lobbying against significant changes to the legislation proposed to Congress, Markey suggested debate on the agreement has just begun. “It’s a long way from today to the day this bill passes the United States House and the United States Senate,” he said. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) said recently he does not expect a decision on the deal to be reached in Congress this year (see GSN, June 20). Open legislative debate on the agreement is scheduled to begin next week. Back to top       EU, Iran to Discuss Compromise Offer European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said yesterday that he planned to meet soon with top Iranian officials to discuss the world powers’ nuclear compromise offer, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, June 22). “I expect to meet in the coming days, next week probably with [lead Iranian nuclear negotiator] Larijani,” Solana said. His spokeswoman said a high-level meeting was scheduled “for next week.” China and France, meanwhile, pressed for an expedited response on the deal from Tehran. “In our mind, it is a case of weeks rather than months,” said French Foreign Ministry spokesman Jean-Baptiste Mattei. “We believe that an early resumption of the talks on the Iranian nuclear issue as soon as possible is the common aspiration of the international community,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu. Diplomats told AFP that Iran was probably buying time, not wanting to give an answer before a July meeting of the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations in St. Petersburg. “The delay suits Iran for two reasons: Tactically, they want to pass the G-8 meeting, and from an internal point of view there may be structural difficulties within the regime to take a strategic decision,” a Western diplomat said. “Obviously we would like an answer by the end of the month. It looks like buying time, but there may also be a genuine debate within the Iranian leadership regarding a suspension,” another diplomat said. “Regardless of the date when they reply, Iran will be the center of the G-8 meeting,” the diplomat added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 22). U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said Iranian officials indicated to him that Tehran would not respond to the proposal before mid-July, the Associated Press reported. “I don’t think they will give an answer before the G-8 meeting in St. Petersburg,” Annan said after meeting with Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley said it would be “helpful and useful if we could get a response and know where the Iranians are” before June 29. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said that deadline would provide “an ample period of time, very reasonable time in which Iran could respond.” “I think we’ve made it clear that if the Iranians don’t choose the path that’s been presented to them, the alternative path is one of increasing isolation — that we’d be prepared to move very quickly in the Security Council,” Bolton said (Alexander Higgins, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, June 23). Larijani said experts are “working round the clock” to formulate a response, which would include specific counteroffers, the London Guardian reported today. “We are not trying to construct the bomb. We don’t want the bomb.  The Americans know this. And [U.S. Director of National Intelligence John] Negroponte announced some time ago that that Iranians don’t have the bomb and wouldn’t be able to make the bomb, even if they wanted to, for more than 10 years,” he said (The Guardian, June 23). Meanwhile, the Bush administration yesterday backed a U.S. Senate proposal to extend sanctions designed to steer foreign firms away from investing in Iran’s energy sector, AP reported. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns asked the Senate Banking Committee to refrain from toughening the sanctions, a move he said could weaken international efforts to put pressure on Iran over its nuclear program. The proposed Iran Sanctions Extension Act of 2006 would replace the 1996 Iran-Libya Sanctions Act. The new act would no longer include Libya, according to AP. Tehran’s controversial nuclear efforts “placed a premium on the effectiveness of sanctions targeting Iran, especially those sanctions intended to minimize the financial assets” available to potentially develop nuclear weapons, said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) (George Gedda, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, June 23). Back to top       Cheney Urges Congress to Approve India Deal U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney yesterday encouraged Congress to expedite legislation necessary for implementing a pending civilian nuclear technology sharing deal with India, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 22). “We hope Congress will be quick to enact legislation that enables our two nations to move forward on this important agreement without delay,” he said. “We must be sure amendments or delays on the U.S. side do not risk wasting this critical opportunity,” Cheney added (see related GSN story, today). Cheney said the agreement is “one of the most important strategic foreign policy initiatives of the government” and hailed New Delhi’s “very good nonproliferation track record” (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 23). Meanwhile, Representative Tom Lantos (D-Calif.) warned India against siding with nonaligned states in supporting Iran’s controversial nuclear program, Reuters reported yesterday. Lantos advised New Delhi to “act responsibly” and criticized its recent decision to endorse a statement by the Nonaligned Movement “diametrically opposed” to the U.N. Security Council’s position demanding that Iran halt nuclear work. “This is a very negative phenomenon and I honestly hope there will be a great deal of care taken by our Indian friends if they want this (nuclear cooperation agreement) to get through Congress and become reality,” he said (Carol Giacomo, Reuters, June 22). Back to top       U.S. Senate Demands New North Korea Envoy The U.S. Senate yesterday voiced disapproval over the Bush administration’s North Korea policy by asking that the top U.S. envoy to nuclear talks be replaced, Reuters reported (see GSN, June 19). A defense authorization bill amendment sponsored by Senate minority leader Harry Reid (Nev.), and Carl Levin (Mich.) and Joseph Biden (Del.), senior Democrats on the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, carried the request for the appointment of a new senior envoy within 60 days after the bill becomes law. The amendment is pending approval by the House of Representatives. “It says we are not confident in the direction of U.S. policy,” a Democratic Senate staff member told Reuters. “It reflects the frustration of five years of Bush’s neglect of the North Korea problem, during which the North expanded its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs,” said the staff member (Reuters, June 22). Meanwhile, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick called on China and South Korea to make a greater effort to persuade North Korea to end its nuclear weapons effort, Agence France-Presse reported today. Without a “very strong effort” by Beijing and Seoul, the suspended multilateral negotiations on the issue are likely to fail, Zoellick told the Sydney Morning Herald. “To make it work, you’ve got to get some very strong effort by China and South Korea,” he said. “The South Koreans can’t just see their role as offering concessions every time the North Koreans engage in bad behavior,” he said. “China is going to have to also recognize the risks of maintaining the current status quo,” he added (Agence France-Presse/DefenseNews.com, June 23). Back to top

Military Smallpox Vaccine May Have Killed Soldier Required military vaccines might have killed a 26-year-old U.S. Army soldier in 2005, the U.S. Defense Department said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 5, 2005). Pfc. Christopher Abston received smallpox and influenza vaccine injections in November. He died 16 days later, on Dec. 4 in his Fort Bragg, N.C., barracks, Reuters reported. A medical expert panel said it was “possible” the vaccines administered by the military caused the death, the Pentagon said in a release. An autopsy report revealed that Abston experienced myocarditis, or an inflammation of the heart muscle, a reaction that can be triggered by the smallpox vaccine. “The expert panel cautioned that the findings pointing to vaccinations were neither probably nor unlikely, but they do suggest the possibility that the vaccines may have caused Abston’s death,” the release said. Military troops have questioned the safety of required shots and some have been discharged after refusing to be vaccinated. The Pentagon said that out of 1 million military personnel who have received the smallpox vaccine since 2002, 120 people contracted myocarditis or comparable conditions. Abston is the only reported fatality. An earlier panel said the 2003 death of an Army medic might have been linked to a set of mandatory vaccinations, including shots for anthrax and smallpox (Will Dunham, Reuters, June 22). Back to top

Old Chemical Weapons Found in Iraq Ignite Debate on Risk, Threat and Political Agenda The more than 500 chemical weapons found in Iraq since the 2003 invasion might have been prepared for use in that country’s war against Iran, a former U.S. weapons inspector said yesterday (see GSN, June 22). A report released Wednesday describes the types of weapons that have been located — mostly 155-millmeter shells with mustard gas or sarin nerve agent — and their approximate age. The report also warns that the old chemical weapons could be sold on the black market. David Kay, who led the search for unconventional weapons in Iraq from 2003 to 2004, said experts were in “almost 100 percent agreement” that the sarin nerve agent from the 1980s was degraded and would not be dangerous, the Associated Press reported. “It is less toxic than most things that American have under their kitchen sink at this point,” Kay said. He added that any mustard agent left in Iraq from the 1980s would not be lethal. One official said insurgents have been known to update conventional weapons and could possibly do the same with these. Insurgents are not yet known to have located such weapons. “They are weapons of mass destruction,” said U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, responding about the danger the weapons could pose to U.S. troops. “They are harmful to human beings. And they have been found.” Representative Jane Harman (D-Calif.) voiced concern of the timing of the report. “What worries me is that the intelligence community, [National Intelligence Director John] Negroponte in particular, may be playing a partisan role in the 2006 election,” said Harman, ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.) said the report is not a “smoking gun.” He pointed out that the report said the munitions could, in fact, be lethal. The chemical agents might have been inserted into the munitions more recently than the 1991 Gulf War, Hoekstra said. “David Kay says anything produced prior to 1991 is not lethal anymore, so what is the discrepancy here?” Hoekstra said. “I am 100 percent sure if David Kay had the opportunity to look at the reports that describe these things, he would agree with the finding that … these things are lethal and deadly.” The munitions were found over the years in small groupings, said intelligence officials. The weapons were not a threat to U.S. troops prior to the 2003 invasion, one official said. Former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein did not include them in an organized weapons program, AP reported (Katherine Shrader, Associated Press/Star Tribune, June 23). Back to top

Bush Administration Rejects Call for Pre-Emptive Strike on North Korean Missile Site U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney yesterday dismissed a call by former Defense Secretary William Perry to destroy a North Korean Taepodong 2 missile before it could be launched, the Financial Times reported (see GSN, June 22). “At this stage, we are addressing the issue in a proper fashion,” Cheney said. “Obviously, if you’re going to launch strikes at another nation, you’d better be prepared to not just fire one shot” (Sevastopulo/Alden, Financial Times, June 23). Cheney called North Korea’s missile capabilities “fairly rudimentary” and said the Taepodong 2 is probably not able to reach U.S. territory, the Associated Press reported (Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, June 23). Charles Pritchard, a former U.S. special envoy to the North Korean nuclear talks, today called for renewed dialogue with Pyongyang. “A missile test is a step in the wrong direction, and the appropriate first response would be for the United States to re-impose the specific sanctions that were lifted in 2000 as a direct result of the missile moratorium,” Pritchard wrote in the Washington Post. “But the missile test is not a violation of anything more than our pride, ripping a gaping hole in the false logic that talking with the North Koreans somehow rewards and empowers them,” he wrote. “To the contrary, we should be opening avenues of dialogue with Pyongyang” (Charles Pritchard, Washington Post, June 23). U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley said yesterday that the United States could use its fledgling missile defense system defend against a North Korean missile, Agence France-Presse reported. “We have a missile defense system … that is basically a research, development, training, test kind of system” that possesses “some limited operational capability,” he said. “And the purpose, of course, of a missile defense system is to defend the territory of the United States from attack,” he said. North Korean “preparations are very far along, so you could, from a capability standpoint, have a launch,” Hadley said. “Now what they intend to do, which is what a lot of people are trying to read, of course, we don’t know. What we hope they will do is give it up and not launch,” he said. A senior U.S. official, meanwhile, warned there would be “some cost” to Pyongyang for launching a long-range missile. “If such a launch takes place, we would seek to impose some cost on North Korea,” Peter Rodman, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the House Armed Services Committee. A U.S. defense official, meanwhile, said the United States was unlikely to attempt use of its missile defense system if a North Korean missile were headed into open ocean (Agence France-Presse I/SpaceWar.com, June 22). No “reliable information” exists regarding North Korea’s plans, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said yesterday, according to AFP. “Assuming that such a launch is planned, we do not know what it is for: to deploy a satellite or simply to launch a ballistic missile,” he said (Agence France-Presse II, June 22). However, Moscow expressed concern over the issue to North Korea’s ambassador to Russia, AP reported today. The Russian Foreign Ministry said it told Ambassador Pak Ui Chun against any move that might “complicate the search for a settlement to the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear problem” (Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, June 23). A top South Korean official warned Pyongyang today that it should not expect U.S. concessions as a result of any missile launch, AP reported. “It seems clear that even if North Korea fires a missile, the United States would not make a compromise,” said Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok (Burt Herman, Associated Press III/Fox News, June 23). Back to top

U.S. “Hit-to-Kill Missile” Test Deemed a Success A U.S. Navy ship yesterday shot down a warhead in Hawaii as part of a test conducted by the Missile Defense Agency, the Associated Press reported. (see GSN, April 19). The test had been planned for months and was not motivated by a possible upcoming North Korean missile launch, the agency said. The USS Shiloh used a Standard Missile 3 interceptor to bring down a warhead fired from the Pacific Missile Range facility on Kauai. Interception occurred after the target separated from the rocket booster 250 miles northwest of Kauai and 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean, officials said. Medium- and long-range ballistic missiles generally consist of two stages, which make it more difficult for interceptors to determine which part is the warhead and which the body. “We are continuing to see great success with the very challenging technology of hit-to-kill, a technology that is used for all of our missile defense ground and sea-based interceptor missiles,” said Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, Missile Defense Agency head (U.S. Missile Defense Agency release, June 22). In eight efforts, the military has seven times successfully used a ship-based interceptor to destroy a target. Including yesterday’s test, ships have twice successfully fired on a separating target. For the first time, Japan joined in on the exercise, the release said. The Japanese cruiser Kirishima tracked the missile during the test (Associated Press/Boston Globe June 23). Back to top       Japan, U.S. Expand Missile Defense Partnership Japan and the United States moved today to boost their cooperative missile defense efforts, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 28). An agreement signed today calls for the joint production of missile interceptors, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said. A missile-detecting radar was deployed on a northern Japanese base just hours before U.S. and Japanese officials signed the deal. The X-band radar was moved to the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force base in Tsugaru from a U.S. air base in Misawa, the Defense Agency said. The radar should start monitoring for ballistic missiles sometime this summer, an official said. The radar would be used only to monitor missiles and is equipped with an interceptor, she said. The agreement would allow Japan to share missile defense technology with the United States — an area of contention for Japan considering its pacifist views and prohibition of arms exports.  Foreign Ministry official Saori Nagahara said the United States and Japan do not yet have a scheduled for production of interceptor missiles and expect the development to take nine years (Joseph Coleman, Associated Press/New York Daily News, June 23).   Back to top

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