Construction of the U.S.-funded Russian chemical weapons destruction facility at Shchuchye is behind schedule (artist drawing courtesy DTRA). New Contracts Could Speed Russian CW Destruction By Jon Fox, Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Defense Department officials expect a crucial contract at a U.S.-funded Russian chemical weapons destruction facility to be awarded in early July, allowing the behind-schedule project to progress (see GSN, June 2)...Full Story

G-8 Wants Iran Nuclear Response by Wednesday Foreign Ministers from the Group of Eight world’s leading industrial nations plus Russia yesterday demanded that Iran provide a “clear and substantive” response to a nuclear compromise offer from the world powers by Wednesday, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, June 29)...Full Story

Former U.S. Weapons Inspector Plays Down Significance of Chemical Weapons Found in Iraq By Jon Fox, Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — That U.S. military forces in Iraq have discovered chemical weapons from the 1980s should come as no surprise, the former chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq said yesterday (see GSN, June 23)...Full Story

	Friday, June 30, 2006

Study Calls for More Port Security Spending A new study has concluded that the United States is likely to experience a terrorist attack on at least one of its 361 seaports, Inside the Bay Area reported yesterday (see GSN, June 8). “We’re currently devoting a vast amount of our resources toward preventing an attack,” said Jon Haveman, study author and program director at the Public Policy Institute of California. “To be a little fatalistic about it, unless we impose draconian measures, there’s still going to be a significant probability that terrorists will get their material through.” Haveman said a radioactive “dirty” bomb, a chemical weapon “or in a worst-case scenario, a nuclear weapon” could be smuggled into a U.S. port. “We need to be spending more money overall, and a larger share of that needs to be devoted to response and recovery,” he said. The Coast Guard has said it needs some $7.3 billion for port security, according to the study. However, Washington has provided only $780 million. The study examined what would happen to the U.S. economy if one of the country’s largest ports were attacked. It found that the immediate effect of shutting down one of the major seaports could cost some $45 billion, an attack on a smaller California port such as Oakland or Richmond could also be devastating. “The Port of Oakland could be an appealing target for a terrorist, because there’s always the chance of an auto-immune response,” such as shutting down every U.S. port, Haveman said. “That’s the sort of reaction that terrorists would enjoy, watching us inflict damage upon our economy far greater than the attack itself,” he said. While “it’s not possible to create a fail-safe system, it is possible to increase the probability of stopping an incident,” said Earl Agron, vice president of security at APL, the seventh-largest container carrier in the world. Simon Labov, a physicist and director of the Radiation Detection Center at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said eliminating all probability of an attack is impossible. “To be realistic, there’s a huge range of attack scenarios by groups with different capabilities. Some of them we might actually stop, and some we might not. And in those cases we ought to look at managing the consequences,” said Labov (Erik Nelson, Inside Bay Area, June 29). Meanwhile, an Indian expert warned yesterday that shipping containers could be used to transport weapons of mass destruction, the New Straits Times reported. “The container shipping appears to be most vulnerable and has the potential to be the Achilles heel of maritime trade,” said Observer Research Foundation senior fellow Vijay Sakhuja. Vijay said seaports are the weakest link in the container transport chain. He suggested deploying sensors to detect underwater attacks (Hamisah Hamid, New Straits Times, June 29). Back to top

WMD Threat Poses Largest Security Concern for Russia, White Paper Says; 20 Nations Could Acquire WMD Weapons of mass destruction within reach of Russia’s neighbors comprise the largest security threat to Russian security, according to an official white paper released this week, Interfax reported today (see GSN, June 2). “Expanding the ‘club’ of countries which have WMD is dangerous from the viewpoint of undermining the international nonproliferation regime, which has been formed over decades, and of initiating a ‘chain reaction’ with the emergence of new countries wielding the most deadly kinds of weapons,” the paper says. “For this foreseeable future the main threat in the area of nonproliferation is likely to come from terrorist using some elements of WMD,” the paper continues. “While the doctrine of deterrent will still apply to countries that have WMD capabilities, it obviously will not have any effect on terrorists” (Interfax, June 30). In addition to the terrorist threat, Russia must face threats posed by other nations said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. In addition to the eight nations widely believed to have nuclear stockpiles, 20 additional countries have unofficial access to weapons of mass destruction, Ivanov said. “For some of them, it is a matter of political will” (Sergei Babkin, ITAR-Tass, June 30). Back to top

G-8 Wants Iran Nuclear Response by Wednesday Foreign Ministers from the Group of Eight world’s leading industrial nations plus Russia yesterday demanded that Iran provide a “clear and substantive” response to a nuclear compromise offer from the world powers by Wednesday, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, June 29). The officials said in a statement that they were “disappointed” Tehran had not yet responded to the offer of economic incentives intended to resolve the standoff. U.S. officials said G-8 foreign ministers would meet July 12 to discuss any response from Iran and decide to begin negotiations or resume U.N. Security Council debate on possible punitive measures, the Post reported. The statement, however, did not mention any possible sanctions. When EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana presented the offer to Tehran on June 6, the incentives were in written form, while he mentioned a list of potential sanctions only orally, according to the Post. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday refused to comment on whether they were in agreement over potential punitive measures. “We did not discuss anything beyond the offer which we all made in good faith to Iran, which is a positive offer,” Lavrov said. Solana met with senior officials from the world powers Wednesday. A senior U.S. official said they agreed that a suspension of Iran’s enrichment activities would have to include a shutdown of centrifuges, a suspension of putting uranium hexafluoride into centrifuges, a moratorium on activities at the uranium enrichment facility in Nantanz and no new construction of centrifuge cascades (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, June 30). Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani is scheduled to meet Wednesday with Solana and senior diplomats from France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom to discuss the offer, the Los Angeles Times reported today (Gerstenzang/Holley, Los Angeles Times, June 30). Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki yesterday dismissed the Wednesday deadline, the Associated Press reported. Mottaki said Iran planned to raise questions about the proposal in the talks with Solana. “Iran is seriously and carefully reviewing the proposed package,” he said. “Questions and ambiguities on the Iranian side are pending. Therefore, we welcome the discussions and negotiations for clarification of those ambiguities.” Mottaki said that when Solana presented the package in Tehran earlier this month “we did not agree on any specific date to respond.” “I think the time until August is not a long time for submitting a response,” he said. However, Mottaki told the German weekly magazine Stern, in remarks published Wednesday, that Tehran could respond before the G-8 summit (Associated Press/USA Today, June 29). Back to top       Bush Administration Clears F-16s to Pakistan The Bush administration formally notified Congress Wednesday of a planned sale of F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 28). Islamabad would be given the option to purchase 18 new jets, order as many as 18 more, and have 26 of its existing aircraft refurbished, according to AP. The Bush administration yesterday denied that the sale was an attempt to balance the pending U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear agreement (see GSN, June 29). “We believe in treating each country individually,” said State Department spokeswoman Julie Reside. “Each faces defense issues different from the other” (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 30). Back to top       China Announces Strategic Missile Plans Chinese President Hu Jintao yesterday announced a plan to boost Beijing’s strategic missile forces, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 2). “To establish a strategic missile armed force and build up the Second Artillery Corps is a major strategic decision of the Communist Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission,” state television quoted Hu as saying. “The army should bring into full play the role of science and technology and carry out reforms and innovations, so as to set up a scientific system for military training under the new circumstances,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 29). Back to top       NNSA Refurbishes First B-61 Bomb After a six-year startup effort, the National Nuclear Security Administration has refurbished its first B-61 nuclear bomb, the first step in the Energy Department’s program to extend the life of the oldest weapons in the U.S. nuclear stockpile, officials said today (see GSN, Aug. 1, 2002). The program is an effort to ensure that aging nuclear weapons will perform as expected without conducting underground tests. Refurbishing the B-61 should extend the warhead’s life by 20 years, officials said. The program will also extend the life of the earth-penetrating B-61 Mod 7 and Mod 11 gravity bombs. “Completing the B-61 first production unit is an important step in keeping our nuclear weapons stockpile safe and reliable,” NNSA Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs Tom D’Agostino said in a statement. “Our nuclear weapons were never intended to last this long and they were not designed to be taken apart, so it is a credit to our scientists and engineers across the complex who have come together to deliver this unit on time.” “The B-61 bombs are an integral part of our nation’s strategic defense and are the oldest weapon in the nuclear stockpile, many of which were originally produced in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The B-61-7/11s are slated to be refurbished by fiscal year 2009,” according to the release (National Nuclear Security Administration release, June 30). Back to top

New Contracts Could Speed Russian CW Destruction By Jon Fox, Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Defense Department officials expect a crucial contract at a U.S.-funded Russian chemical weapons destruction facility to be awarded in early July, allowing the behind-schedule project to progress (see GSN, June 2). Construction of the primary destruction building at the sprawling Shchuchye complex is roughly one year behind schedule and has been hindered by difficulties working with Russian subcontractors, according to a report from the Government Accountability Office released last month. The project, supported almost entirely by U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction funding, has also been stalled by a labyrinthine Russian bureaucracy and the remote nature of the site east of the Ural mountains, according to Paul Boren, head of the Defense Department’s Treaty and Threat Reduction Office. A U.S.-funded building at the heart of the complex – a destruction facility where nerve agents will be removed from munitions and encased in a type of asphalt – has been dragged behind schedule by an inability to get a reasonable bid from Russian subcontractors, Boren said Wednesday during a panel discussion at the Washington offices of the Monterey Institute of International Studies (see GSN, Jan. 17). The “hiccup” involves what Boren called the “systemization” of the plant. The chemical weapons are destroyed in an automated process operated by a computer system. However, getting a Russian subcontractor to install that system and link the automated elements together has been difficult. One firm had requested roughly $300 million, more than six times what U.S. officials believe the work to be worth, Boren said. He said he expects an acceptable bid to be presented within weeks. In 2005, the Defense Department estimated that that the facility would be completed and transferred to Russian control by 2009 at a total cost of just more than $1 billion. In March, however, officials said the failure to award the contract for the central destruction facility had hampered their ability to estimate both the date of completion and the cost, according to the GAO report. The Defense Department is still trying to hold the line at $1 billion and is talking with Russian officials about ways to cut costs, Boren said. The project was halted in 2000 when Congress demanded that Russia inject a certain amount of funding into the site, Boren said. Moscow has since committed funds, he said, but Russian government opacity has made difficult to know how much. When GAO officials traveled to the Russian site in February, they found the complex about 40 percent complete. Initial target dates had projected the building to be more than half done by that point. The exterior of Building 101, the crucial destruction building, was complete at the time of the GAO trip, but the U.S. contractor had still not selected a Russian company to complete the rest of facility. Parsons Global Services, the U.S. firm leading the project, had hoped to have that contract awarded by June 2005. U.S. contractors and the Defense Department have been compelled to navigate a Russian bureaucracy that seems to be constantly in flux, according to Boren. “Bureaucracies spring up and change all the time in Russia,” he said. In one case documented by the GAO, a new Russian regulatory agency appeared at the site in November 2005 with a list of additional project requirements. However, the existence of Rostekhnadzor, the agency performing the surprise audit, was unknown to both Defense Department officials and Russian officials at Shchuchye, Boren said. Foreign workers are required to temporarily leave Russia every six months to renew their visas, a bureaucratic hoop that has added $3 million in costs as of November 2005, auditors found. Recently, however, the Defense Department has noticed an improvement in the speed of those renewals, the GAO report states. Work was also delayed in early 2004 when a reorganization of the Russian government temporarily eliminated the office in charge of waiving import taxes on the heavy equipment used for construction. For six months all equipment shipped from the United States was stopped and construction fell three months behind schedule, the GAO reported. Government auditors also said the U.S. firm leading the project has had a hard time getting its accounting experts go to Shchuchye. A mandatory accounting system provides U.S. officials with early warnings of schedule delays and cost spikes, but Parsons employees familiar with it have been reluctant to travel to the swampy and often frigid Russian site. “When you work overseas at a remote site in a swamp, you want to get out of there,” Boren said, adding that even “the people who live in Shchuchye want to get out of there.” Back to top       Former U.S. Weapons Inspector Plays Down Significance of Chemical Weapons Found in Iraq By Jon Fox, Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — That U.S. military forces in Iraq have discovered chemical weapons from the 1980s should come as no surprise, the former chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq said yesterday (see GSN, June 23). Testifying before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, David Kay played down the danger and significance of 500 chemical weapons shells and rockets the U.S. military has reported finding in Iraq since 2003. In the midst of a highly partisan debate, Republican members of Congress have been pushing for the Pentagon to fully declassify a report by the Army’s National Ground Intelligence Center on the munitions (see GSN, June 22). The report was created to apprise military commanders in Iraq of possible risks to their troops. Only portions of the report that have been cleared for public discussion, but Republican lawmakers have pointed to the report as evidence of a WMD threat posed by Iraq prior to the U.S.-led invasion. Defense Department officials say the rounds were produced in the 1980s. Thursday’s hearing was called by committee vice chairman Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) to discuss the report and call for its full release. The shells — which contain or were intended to contain sarin and mustard gas — were degraded to such a degree they could no longer be used as they were designed, according to Defense Department testifying before the committee. “It really should not be a surprise to anyone that chemical munitions produced in Iraq between 1980 and roughly 1991 have been found,” Kay said, adding that such rounds were routinely found in Iraq from 1991 until U.N. inspectors were ejected in 1998. The bulk of Iraqi chemical weapons were produced between 1984 and 1988 and were dispersed across the country in bunkers without an accurate accounting system, he said. “I fully expected that we would find chemical rounds from the 1980s in Iraq,” Kay said. The nerve agent sarin produced by Iraq was of such poor quality that it is unlikely to pose much risk after years of degradation, he said. “While it’s not something I’d like to rub up next to, it was not going to be a major concern,” he said. Kay said the Iraqi mustard gas, a blistering agent, was of a higher quality and more stable. Still, mustard gas from the 1980s would no longer be lethal, Kay has said. Republican members of the committee repeatedly pressed other witnesses yesterday to say if the weapons could be used by terrorists if sold on the black market. While the lifespan of the rounds themselves may have expired, terrorists might be able to siphon off the chemical agent and wage an attack on U.S. soil, the lawmakers suggested. Kay told the committee that extracting the chemical weapons from the aging shells would be exceedingly difficult and dangerous. “While it is possible to draw it off, you are more likely to result in the death of the people” attempting it, he said. Back to top       Group Says It Launched Chemical Weapon at Israel A Palestinian group claimed yesterday to have fired a chemical warhead at Israel, in retaliation for Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 27). No rocket launch or impact was confirmed by an Israeli Army spokeswoman. “We fired a rocket with a chemical warhead on Sderot,” said al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades spokesman Abu Qussai, referring to the home of Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz, located close to the Gaza border. The group is loosely affiliated with Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas’ Fatah party. (Agence France-Presse/TurkishPress.com, June 29). Back to top       Source of Intelligence for London Antiterror Raid Was Credible in the Past, Police Say London police yesterday defended a raid conducted early this month after a source indicated that the raided site might contain a chemical weapon (see GSN, June 6). Senior Metropolitan Police officers apologized for the outcome June 2 raid of Abul Kahar and Abul Koyair’s east London home, including the wounding of one of the suspects, but said the decision to conduct the operation was appropriate, the Daily Telegraph reported today. “This time we did not find what we were looking for and it seems we were wrong,” the Metropolitan Commissioner Sir Ian Blair told the Metropolitan Police Authority. “Once again, I apologize for the harm and disruption.” Blair made a point, however, to distinguish that his version of “wrong” pertained only to the chemical device not being found in the brothers’ home. “The raid itself I am perfectly content was justified and the raid was carried out extremely well by the Metropolitan Police,” he said. Police added that Kahar’s gunshot wound to the shoulder was a source of “much regret.” “This is not a major error. It is working in an incredibly difficult environment where the difference between success and failure cannot be guaranteed before the action. One thing we can guarantee, though, is that we will not shirk from protecting public safety,” Blair continued. He said three years ago an investigation at a London mosque uncovered weapons to be used in an alleged ricin plot (see GSN, Jan. 21, 2003). Assistant Commissioner Andy Hayman, head of Scotland Yard’s specialist operations department said in a report, “The operation is still in progress and remains operationally sensitive. Information was received from a credible, sensitive source who, in the past, has provided corroborated information. “There will be other raids but the lesson of Forest Gate is that we have to find new methods of engaging with the Muslim community in particular to reassure them of the necessity and appropriateness of police actions. The information suggested that there was a chemical device,” said Hayman. “On the basis that time was of the essence, the information could not be proved or disproved without searching the promises,” he added. “Further delay was not believed to be acceptable given the threat to public safety and the fear that if the intelligence is correct there was no guarantee the device would remain at the location leading to a loss of control. Not to have interdicted would have been a dereliction of duty” (John Steele, Daily Telegraph, June 29). Back to top

Japan, U.S. Warn Against North Korean Missile Test Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday warned North Korea not to test a long-range missile and called on Pyongyang to fulfill its “denuclearization pledges,” Reuters reported today (see GSN, June 29). “We both agreed that it’s very important for us to remain united in sending a clear message to the North Korean leader that, first of all, launching the missile is unacceptable,” Bush said. He added that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il should disclose the payload and the planned trajectory of the Taepondong 2 long-range missile. “There’s been no briefings as to what’s on top of the missile. [Kim] hasn’t told anybody where the missile’s going. He has an obligation ... to those of us who are concerned about this as to what his intentions are,” Bush said. Koizumi said Tokyo “would apply various pressures” in case of a launch (Spetalnick/Nishiyama, Reuters, June 29). Japan announced yesterday that its Aegis-equipped destroyer Kirishima would return from U.S.-led exercises off Hawaii, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse I/SpaceWar.com, June 29). Top South Korean presidential security advisor Song Min-Soon plans to hold talks on the issue with his U.S. counterpart, Stephen Hadley, in Washington next week, according to AFP (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, June 29). Song warned yesterday that Pyongyang risked losing economic aid if it went through with a launch, Yonhap news agency reported. “If North Korea fires a missile, I don’t think the South Korean people will continue to support economic cooperation with the North, and the international community will not side with it,” he said (Yonhap news agency, June 29). Meanwhile, the top U.S. envoy to stalled North Korea nuclear talks said a missile test would endanger pledges from the United States other countries involved in the talks to provide security guarantees and aid in return for an end to North Korea’s nuclear program, Bloomberg news reported today. “While a launch would raise questions about the future of the six-party talks, I want to also be very clear that we are prepared to — we continue to be prepared to return to those talks without preconditions,” Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told the U.S. House of Representatives (Bloomberg, June 30). Back to top

Polish Officials Express Caution on Missile Defense Polish Deputy Defense Minister Stanislaw Koziej said today that his country has still not determined whether hosting a U.S. missile defense interceptor would be advantageous, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, May 23). “We’re not absolutely forced to accept this offer if we judge that it’s not advantageous for us,” Koziej told the Dziennik daily. “We don’t have to have this installation on our territory if it doesn’t clearly serve to increase our security,” he said. U.S. Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman last month indicated that the Pentagon was holding consultations with interested European allies. Koziej said Poland was awaiting a concrete offer from Washington. “For the moment Poland is not committing itself,” he added. “No final decision has been made” (Agence France-Presse, June 30).   Back to top

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