By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — North Korea’s multiple missile launches on July 4 is increasing multinational cooperation to pressure the country into eliminating its nuclear weapons and programs, a senior U.S. official said yesterday (see GSN, July 19). North Korean leader Kim Jong Il “has really galvanized unity against him,” said Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Christopher Hill, the Bush administration’s chief negotiator on North Korea’s weapons. A U.N. Security Council resolution that condemned the tests suggests Kim “miscalculated,” he said. Hill nevertheless expressed pessimism about the prospect of Pyongyang ever seriously negotiating a deal to end its nuclear weapons efforts. “I’m less concerned about their thinking that they’re going to get a better deal from someone than I’m concerned about whether they really want a deal in the first place,” he said during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Hill said an initial joint six-party statement of objectives for negotiations released in September 2005 “is the best deal if they want a deal.” U.S. and North Korean officials publicly disputed meanings within the statement in the days after it was announced and the so-called six-party talks have not since resumed. The statement, as interpreted by the State Department, called for the internationally verified elimination of all North Korean nuclear weapons and nuclear activities, regardless of purpose; full adherence to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and international safeguards; and, once those conditions were met, “discussion” of offering light-water nuclear energy reactors and other benefits to Pyongyang. The statement was not as explicit as the U.S. interpretation, particularly on the timing of discussions. It ambiguously said that a light-water reactor would be discussed “at an appropriate time.” Suspected of attempting to develop nuclear weapons for decades, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003, citing the Bush administration for designating the country as a member of the “axis of evil,” thus making Pyongyang “a target of pre-emptive nuclear attack.” Prospect of a Regional Arms RaceIf North Korea continues with its nuclear weapons program, Hill suggested that the United States, Japan and South Korea might eventually seek to bolster their military capabilities. He indicated the latter two might at some point decide to build nuclear weapons. Asked whether South Korea might develop such weapons in response to its nuclear-armed neighbor, he said: “I think how the South Koreans regard their own defense is like in Japan, something that they discuss. They discuss it quietly now. But I think we could look ahead to a very bad scenario where North Korea develops nuclear weapons. Japan has to look very hard at that, and South Korea will also look hard at that. So I think there’s a lot at stake, which is why I think we’ve got to stick with this until we solve it.” Hill said the prospect of an arms race in Northeast Asia could encourage the Chinese, believed to have the most influence over Pyongyang, to take a more aggressive approach in the nuclear standoff. “I think the more [China] sees of what is going on, that is, the very negative trends that we outlined to them, and that they, in their very sober moments realize are happening, I think we can expect to gain more support,” he said. “And I’d like to think the Security Council resolution is an indication of that,” he added. He was citing a July 15 U.N. Security Council resolution that condemned the North Korean tests and demanded a suspension of its ballistic missile programs. The resolution also insisted that North Korea return to the six-party talks without preconditions. As for the Bush administration, he said, “The United States one way or the other is not going to accept North Korea with weapons of mass destruction. We’re just not going to accept it.” He also said, though, he has told North Korean officials repeatedly that the United States has no intention of attacking the country and said administration officials also are not seeking to change North Korea’s government. “We are not seeking regime change. We’re seeking a change in this regime’s behavior. Ultimately, what regime North Korea has will be determined by the North Korean people. It’s not for us to determine,” he said. Hill said U.S. officials believe one or more Iranian officials were in North Korea to witness the tests this month, possibly out of commercial interest. “Our understanding is that North Korea has had a number of commercial relationships in the Middle East with respect to missiles,” he said. A Dare?Hill appeared to back away from previous Bush administration assessments that North Korea might have built multiple nuclear weapons with its known quantities of plutonium. Hill would only say, “We know they have plutonium. We don’t know that they have taken the plutonium and, through an explosion, caused — caused a nuclear — or have the capability of causing a nuclear explosion.” Hearing Hill’s line and statements by President George W. Bush in recent weeks, according to East Asia expert Chris Nelson in a daily e-mailed analysis yesterday, “one senses that the administration’s statements about a ‘red line’ add up, however unintentionally, to a public dare. ... ‘If you have a nuclear bomb, then let’s see it explode.’” He added, “Unstated, by U.S. hardliners, is ‘and then, my boy, we have you by the shorts.’”
By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — A senior State Department official was unable yesterday to assure lawmakers that the pending U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear agreement would not give New Delhi the ability to ramp up production of nuclear weapons (see GSN, July 19). Acting Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Frank Record appeared before a House International Relations subcommittee to testify on U.S. nonproliferation strategy. After Record read through portions of 10 pages of prepared remarks, the committee launched into questions that he seemed unprepared to answer. Representative Howard Berman (D-Calif.) asked bluntly if the pending agreement with India would allow New Delhi to increase its production of nuclear warheads (see GSN, July 5). “I don’t have enough knowledge about the India system to give you a full answer to that question,” Record said. Pushed on details of the ongoing Cooperative Threat Reduction program to secure fissile material in Russia, Record was unable to provide the number of warheads dismantled. He could not say if a prioritized list of vulnerable global nuclear sites existed, and offered no explanation for a delay in a State Department report on nations that have transferred nuclear technology to Iran. At the conclusion of the hearing, Record’s testimony drew fire from the Republican chairman of the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee. “I have not been satisfied with your answers here today,” said Representative Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.). While making allowances for Record’s relatively recent appointment to his position in May, Rohrabacher said preventing nuclear proliferation is of utmost importance and that Record’s testimony did not seem to reflect the gravity of the challenge. “This administration has been in power for six years now, going on six years, and I would expect your testimony to reflect a much more organized effort in this area than what I have heard today,” Rohrabacher said. “If this had been someone with a little more experience it would have been even more disturbing,” Rohrabacher told Global Security Newswire after the hearing. House and Senate foreign affairs committees voted last month in favor of the U.S.-Indian deal, which is expected to move to the full House for a possible vote next week. Critics of the deal, however, have argued that the agreement strikes a forceful blow to the world’s nuclear nonproliferation regime by carving out exceptions for India, which has not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and tested a nuclear device as recently as 1998. Some opponents believe that the agreement would represent a U.S. violation of Article 1 of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which enjoins signatories from helping any non-nuclear weapons state from manufacturing or acquiring a nuclear bomb. Despite possessing nuclear weapons, under the conditions of the treaty India could only sign as non-nuclear state. Opponents contend that with a secured stream of nuclear fuel for its civilian reactors — part of the agreement — India could devote its domestic nuclear material to creating bomb fuel. The United States would be alleviating a bottleneck in Indian uranium mining and would, in effect, be assisting New Delhi’s weapons program, they argue. A former Indian intelligence official said recently in the Indian press that the deal would allow India to make as many as 50 warheads a year, up from of current production level of less than 10. The State Department has acknowledged that more indigenous uranium could be available for India’s weapons program following deliveries of foreign material. The department argues, though, that the supply would not violate the treaty, asserting the pact was not intended to prohibit such indirect benefits. Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Jack David said in June that Washington does not expect India to produce “many, many weapons.” In his opening remarks, Rohrabacher expressed his support for the U.S.-Indian deal, saying that “energy policy is foreign policy.” However, he later told Record that his support is “predicated on the idea that they’re going to be doing their best to make sure that we’re not providing India with the ability to produce nuclear weapons.” Nuclear Material SecurityRepresentative Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said he agrees with President George W. Bush’s identification of terrorist access to nuclear material as the nation’s paramount security concern. He added, though, “My concern is that we’re not acting” on the threat. In a series of three increasingly simple and direct questions, he asked Record how close the United States was to ensuring nuclear sites in Russia and elsewhere are secured. “Have you prioritized the most vulnerable sites of highly enriched uranium that al-Qaeda may obtain and in former Soviet Union and elsewhere?” Schiff asked. “Do you know how long it will take to secure those sites?” Record offered only a vague answer. “We’re going to draw up some specific timetables about some of the objectives in our global initiative and we’ll be briefing you on that as we go along,” he said (see GSN, July 17).
A European draft resolution delivered yesterday to U.N. Security Council proposes using the threat of sanctions, but not military action, to force Iran to halt uranium enrichment and address uncertainties about its nuclear programs, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 20). If Iran continues to resist, sanctions initiated under Article 41, Chapter 7, of the U.N. Charter could include economic or air travel sanctions or suspension of diplomatic relations. The document — proposed by the “EU-3” of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, with support from the United States — would require Iran to comply with previous council and International Atomic Energy Agency demands to stop uranium environment. While Washington had pushed for a vote on the resolution this week, the Lebanon is likely to delay such action, AP reported. Russia’s opposition to sanctions also appears to persist. The Security Council’s permanent members and Germany conducted talks yesterday, and delegates were scheduled to meet again today. “It’s now Thursday, I’m not sure how we’re going to do this by Friday, but creative minds might yet find a way through,” said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton. The draft resolution requires that Iran abide by the demands by August, but includes no reference to Tehran’s statement yesterday that it would respond Aug. 22 to a Western incentives package aimed at curtailing its nuclear program (Associated Press/New York Times, July 22). The draft resolution requires that states thwart ballistic missile and nuclear technology trade with Iran, the Washington Post reported today. It also calls on Iran to submit to additional, intrusive U.N. inspections — more than required by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The International Atomic Energy Agency would report next month on whether Iran had met the requirements, the Post reported. Russia made efforts to remove passages in the draft requiring Iran to stop enrichment and reprocessing of nuclear fuel. Moscow proposed, instead, that the council ask Iran to fulfill the obligation. Russia also offered amendments that would slow the potential imposition of sanctions and ensure the resolution could not be used to authorize military action (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, July 21). China and Russia might be backing away from the demand for a halt to Iranian uranium enrichment, one British diplomat said, according to Bloomberg. “We have seen this happen before with China and Russia,” said British Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Karen Pierce. “They think that if they can row back a bit, why not try?” (Bloomberg, July 20). Iran reaffirmed yesterday its determination to produce nuclear fuel on its soil, Reuters reported. “Based on law, Iran has planned to produce 20,000 [megawatts] of nuclear electricity in the next 20 years and needs to produce nuclear fuel inside the country for those reactors,” Larijani said in a statement (Reuters/New York Times, July 20).
British lawmakers will have a say on whether to replace the country’s Trident missiles with a new nuclear deterrent, House of Commons leaders Jack Straw said yesterday (see GSN, July 11). Prime Minister Tony Blair has appeared noncommittal as to whether the House would be allowed to vote on the issue. Straw said, though, that a vote is “inevitable,” according to Agence France-Presse. “Of course we should involve the House fully in a decision as important as the renewal of our nuclear deterrent,” he said. “And in practical terms it is inevitable that there will therefore be a chance for the House to express its view on this important matter in a vote” (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 20). Straw said he expected “significant support” from lawmakers in Blair’s Labor Party, according to the London Independent, which played down the likelihood of a vote against renewing the nuclear deterrent. Labor leaders will be pushing party members to back the measure, and the Conservative Party is also expected to supporting replacing the Tridents, the Independent reported (Andrew Grice, The Independent, July 21).
Ranking members of the U.S. House International Relations Committee yesterday blasted the State Department for giving them what they said is an inadequate amount of time to consider the planned sale of F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 20). The 30-day period for Congress to study the matter ends next week. Lawmakers said the White House did not give them the customary 20-day advance notice of the beginning of that period, AP reported. That “represents a deliberate and wholly inappropriate maneuver by the State Department to diminish the Congress’ lawful oversight of arms sales,” said committee Chairman Henry Hyde (R-Ill.). Top Democrat Tom Lantos (Calif.) said the agency “cut this committee, and this Congress, out of consideration of U.S. arms sales. This insolence flies in the face of both custom and the intent of the Constitution.” Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs John Hillen said the administration had conducted “unprecedented” consultations with Congress on the sale of up to 36 jets. “Never before have such extensive arms sales consultations taken place,” he told the committee (Foster Klug, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 21).
The U.S. Air Force yesterday conducted a successful test flight of an unarmed Minuteman 3 ICBM, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 18). Fake warheads fired from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California at 3:14 a.m. flew 4,200 miles to a water target near the Marshall Islands. The flight was used to test the reliability and accuracy of the missile. Originally scheduled for Wednesday, the test firing was postponed due to a power outage at a radar facility that guides flights in and out of Southern California. (Associated Press/Sun-Sentinel, July 20).
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