The detonation of a nuclear weapon at the Port of Long Beach in California would be catastrophic for the entire United States, leading to 10 times the economic damage caused by the Sept. 11 attacks, according to a report released yesterday by the RAND Corp. (see GSN, Aug. 25, 2005). RAND’s Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy examined the effects of a 10-kiloton nuclear explosion at the port. Such a blast could “devastate a vast portion of the Los Angeles metropolitan area” within 72 hours, kill 60,000 people immediately and expose another 150,000 to radiation, according to the analysis. The explosion and fires could destroy the infrastructure of the Port of Long Beach and neighboring Port of Los Angeles, along with all ships docked at the two facilities. The ports handle about one-third of U.S. imports. Some 2 million to 3 million people might also be forced to relocate from contaminated areas, and destruction of port area oil refineries could result in large-scale gasoline shortages. If all U.S. ports were subsequently closed for security reasons, there could even be global repercussions, the report warns. “It would take years to recover economically” from such an attack, Michael Wermuth, RAND homeland security research director, told the Los Angeles Times. “It would take any number of years before some of the area close to ground zero could be rebuilt, and some of it would not be habitable for 20 years” (Greg Krikorian, Los Angeles Times, Aug. 16).
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday rejected the U.N. Security Council resolution demanding a freeze on Tehran’s sensitive nuclear work, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Aug. 15). “If they think they can use a resolution as a stick against us, they should know that Iranian people do not bend to language of force,” Ahmadinejad said. Ahmadinejad reiterated that Iran would respond Tuesday to the world powers’ incentives offer aimed at curbing his country’s nuclear program. Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, meanwhile, said Tehran planned to maintain “industrial enrichment” (Aresu Eqbali, Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Aug. 15). Washington this week reaffirmed its intention to seek economic and political sanctions against Iran, either through the United Nations or unilaterally, should the regime defy the U.N. resolution. “There are steps that individual states can take,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack, according to AFP. The Security Council set an Aug. 31 deadline for Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment. However, some analysts have suggested that other crises in the Middle East might prevent the United States from acting hastily on Iran. “I don’t think the world is ready to take the Iranians to the mat at the end of August over this,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The Bush administration has a full plate.” “You still have problems in Gaza, you’re going to have monumental problems in Lebanon, and the administration is being hurt politically by Iraq, which is not going anywhere helpful,” he said. “They will push on Iran, they will make incremental progress, but this is not going to sweep away the rest of the agenda” (David Millikin, Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, Aug. 15). An open letter by 21 former U.S. generals, diplomats and national security officials is expected to criticize the Bush administration's “hard line” on Iran, the Los Angeles Times reported today. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert Gard, one of the signatories, said the group — which includes retired Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Hoar, head of U.S. Central Command from 1991 to 1994, and Morton Halperin, a senior State Department and National Security Council official during the Clinton administration — does not believe that Iran is capable of manufacturing an atomic weapon in the near term and that Washington should negotiate with Tehran. “It’s not a crisis,” Gard told the Times. “To call the Iranian situation a ‘crisis’ connotes you have to do something right now, like bomb them.” Gard added that warnings from former Israeli military officials about the possible need for a military strike on Iran was of particular concern (Peter Spiegel, Aug. 16). Elsewhere, Indonesian Ambassador to the United States Sudjadnan Parnohadiningrat yesterday urged the world to find alternatives outside the Security Council for addressing the standoff, AFP reported. “When it comes to the dealing of this issue at the global level by the United Nations, we believe that there is still room for negotiations beyond the Security Council,” he said (P. Parameswaran, Agence France-Presse III/IranMania.com, Aug. 16).
Moscow yesterday announced it was pleased with progress made in a U.S.-Russian effort to repatriate highly enriched uranium from foreign nuclear reactors, United Press International reported (see GSN, May 30). The Russian Federal Agency for Nuclear Power said 360 pounds of the nuclear material had been returned to Russia from power plants in Serbia and Montenegro, Romania, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Libya, Latvia, Poland and Uzbekistan, RIA Novosti reported (see GSN, Aug. 10). The agency has said it wants all spent nuclear fuel from 17 Russian-built reactors returned by 2013 (United Press International, Aug. 15).
Russia in December plans to conduct additional tests of its Topol-M mobile missile system at the Plesetsk spaceport, ITAR-Tass reported (see GSN, July 14). The tests are set to involve the “modernized” RS-12M2 ICBM, according to Plesetsk. “Missile test engineers are continuing to work on new versions of the Topol family missiles, which have much better specifications as compared with the ICBMs of the previous generation,” a source said. “The new system is equipped with a highly reliable and maneuverable missile which ‘is not afraid of’ the currently existing and future missile defense systems of a potential enemy.” Roughly 500 ICBM launches have occurred at Plesetsk, including more than 80 involving Topol system missiles, ITAR-Tass reported. The facility has also been used to test 11 missile systems (ITAR-Tass, Aug. 15).
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and U.S. President George W. Bush are expected to meet next month in the United States, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Aug. 11). Bush and Roh are expected on Sept. 14 to discuss “strengthening their alliance, handling North Korea’s nuclear and missile issue and other issues in Northeast Asia,” Roh’s office said in a statement (Agence France-Presse, Aug. 16). Roh yesterday called on North Korea to resume multilateral nuclear disarmament talks and offered assistance to Pyongyang, the Associated Press reported. “North Korea should return to the six-way talks without conditions,” he said, adding that Seoul “will spare no efforts and assistance to ensure that North Korea abandons its nuclear (weapons program), improves relations with major countries, including the U.S., and moves toward the path of peace and prosperity” (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 15).
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