A report issued by the U.S. House Committee on Intelligence — led by Chairman Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.), shown earlier this year — has warned that Iran’s WMD threat may be greater than U.S. intelligence analysts have estimated (Getty Images). U.S. Congressional Committee Warns of Iranian Nuclear, WMD Threat A U.S. House committee report has warned that U.S. intelligence analysts, stung by inaccurate assessments prior to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, might be understating the security threat posed by Iran, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 23). “Intelligence community managers and analysts must provide their best analytical judgments about Iranian WMD programs and not shy away from provocative conclusions or bury disagreements in consensus assessments,” says the report released yesterday by the House Intelligence Committee, chaired by Representative Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.)...Full Story

India Reasserts Right to Test Nuclear Weapons The pending U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal would not affect India’s right to conduct explosive nuclear testing, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Parliament yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 18)...Full Story

Chemical Attacks Aimed at Enemy, Hussein Lawyers Say Lawyers for former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and members of his one-time regime are making the case that chemical weapons attacks in the 1980s were aimed at rebels and the Iranian military, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 23)...Full Story

	Thursday, August 24, 2006

U.S. Congressional Committee Warns of Iranian Nuclear, WMD Threat A U.S. House committee report has warned that U.S. intelligence analysts, stung by inaccurate assessments prior to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, might be understating the security threat posed by Iran, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 23). “Intelligence community managers and analysts must provide their best analytical judgments about Iranian WMD programs and not shy away from provocative conclusions or bury disagreements in consensus assessments,” says the report released yesterday by the House Intelligence Committee, chaired by Representative Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.). U.S. officials from multiple government branches and agencies told the Times that additional care in issuing alarming assessments was appropriate following the U.S. experience in Iraq, where no threatening WMD stocks have been found despite former CIA Director George Tenet’s assertion that it was a “slam dunk” case that Iraq had them. “Analysts were burned pretty badly during the run-up to the war in Iraq,” said committee member Rush Holt (D-N.J.).  “I’m not surprised that some in the intelligence community are a bit gun-shy about appearing to be war mongering” (Mark Mazzetti, New York Times, Aug. 24). The report calls for intelligence services to improve their efforts so as to provide more concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear-weapon ambitions. “American intelligence agencies do not know nearly enough about Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” it says, while acknowledging that Iran could be undertaking “a denial and deception campaign to exaggerate progress on its nuclear program as [former Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein apparently did concerning his WMD programs.” “We want to avoid another ‘slam dunk,’” Hoekstra told the Washington Post.  “We think it’s important for the American people to understand the kinds of pressures that we are facing and to increase the American public’s understanding of Iran as a threat” (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Aug. 24). The committee report generally sides with Bush administration officials and other Republicans who are pushing for a more aggressive policy toward Iran, the Times reported. “When the intelligence community says Iran is five to 10 years away from a nuclear weapon, I ask:  ‘If North Korea were to ship them a nuke tomorrow, how close would they be then?’” said former Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.  “The intelligence community is dedicated to predicting the least dangerous world possible” (Mazzetti, New York Times). The report was principally authored by committee staffer Frederick Fleitz, a one-time CIA officer who later served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton when Bolton was undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, the Post reported (Linzer, Washington Post). Meanwhile, the United States and other leading world powers have continued to confer following Tehran’s formal response to a Western-led package of incentives intended to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis. The Bush administration said the response failed to agree to a U.N. Security Council demand that Iran freeze its uranium enrichment activities and other nuclear programs. “We acknowledge that Iran considers its response as a serious offer, and we will review it,” said State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos.  “The response, however, falls short of the conditions set by the Security Council, which require the full and verifiable suspension of all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities.” “We are consulting closely, including with other members of the Security Council, on next steps,” he added. French officials also expressed regret at Tehran’s refusal to suspend its enrichment program, saying that negotiations could not proceed without a freeze. “The Iranians know the rules of the game:  first a suspension of sensitive nuclear activities,” said Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy yesterday (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 24). Back to top       India Reasserts Right to Test Nuclear Weapons The pending U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal would not affect India’s right to conduct explosive nuclear testing, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Parliament yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 18). Singh sought to quell domestic critics who have expressed concern that U.S. lawmakers have sought to limit India’s nuclear capabilities under the deal.  The pact would open the door for the United States to sell nuclear technology and materials to India’s nuclear power sector, but some Indian opposition leaders have said the deal could also limit India’s freedom to develop and field nuclear weapons. Singh has sought to ease those concerns. “There is no scope for capping of our strategic (nuclear) program,” he told Parliament in a statement, according to the Press Trust of India.  “It will be decided by the people, government and Parliament of the country and not by any outside power.” Singh said India plans to continue its unilateral testing moratorium, in place since the nation tested several weapons in 1998, but New Delhi would not commit in any other fashion to limit testing. “This has been made unambiguously clear (to the U.S.),” he said (Associated Press/Indianapolis Star, Aug. 24) Back to top       Diplomacy Intensifies on North Korea Nuclear Crisis Nations involved in the six-party negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program are staging a flurry of diplomatic meetings in hopes of reviving the stalled talks, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Aug. 23). Another published report yesterday indicated that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il might visit China to discuss the nuclear standoff. A “North Korea watcher” in China told the Yonhap News Agency that Beijing “has asked Kim to visit China as soon as possible, as it believes such a visit will help resolve problems” connected to Pyongyang’s July missile tests. “The government hopes the visit will take place within this year,” the source said. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun is scheduled to travel to China in October for talks on the North Korea standoff and other matters. “China is a key trading partner for us, which also plays crucial roles in helping peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and resolve the nuclear issue,” said Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon.  Roh also plans to meet with U.S. President George W. Bush next month in Washington for similar talks, AFP reported. Song Min-soon, Roh’s chief security advisor, is scheduled to leave today for meetings in China, while U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill is expected in East Asia in early September (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 24). Chief Japanese nuclear negotiator Kenichiro Sasae met for two hours today in Seoul with his South Korean counterpart, Chun Young-woo, the Associated Press reported. Chun offered a pessimistic take on the likelihood of a quick resumption of negotiations.  The last session occurred in November. “It is very dangerous to keep the current situation as it is indefinitely,” he said.  “At this moment the prospects for the resumption of the six-party talks are very dark as North Korea shows no signs yet of returning.” Sasae said it was not known whether talks might resume this year.  He and Chun discussed the potential for a North Korean nuclear weapon test, AP reported (Kwang-Tae Kim, Associated Press, Aug. 24). Back to top       Nuclear Disarmament Strategies Require Incentives, Penalties, Conference Participants Say Nations looking to stop the spread of nuclear weapons must combine incentives with potential penalties for nations such as Iran and North Korea, experts said yesterday at a U.N. disarmament conference in Japan (see GSN, July 18). Conference participants also called for enhancing the international nonproliferation regime, including the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Agence France-Presse reported. “It can be agreed, at least, that North Korea should be offered the clearest and most comprehensively specified options from which to choose:  engagement, assistance and security guarantees or further sanctions and isolation,” said James Cotton, a professor at the Australian Defense Force Academy. Chinese Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs Hu Xiadoi recommended direct talks between North Korea and the United States in order to strengthen the six-nation negotiating process on Pyongyang’s nuclear program. There are potential pitfalls to a carrot-and-stick strategy, experts said. The invasion of Iraq is likely to have pushed North Korea to seek a nuclear deterrent, said Chung Ok-nim, a professor at Sunmoon University in South Korea.  The tests of seven missiles in July might also have been Pyongyang’s response to pressure to disarm, she said. Experts also addressed the nuclear standoff with Iran, which this week submitted its response to an incentives offer from the world powers (see GSN, Aug. 23). “My own interpretation is that the Iranian government blinked a little bit,” said Gerald Steinberg, conflict management and negotiation program director at Bar Ilan University in Israel.  “I think the reason is they are afraid of the sticks” (Agence France-Presse/IranMania, Aug. 23). 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Boston Tempers Laboratory Regulation Plan The city of Boston has curtailed its ambitious plan to regulate biological laboratories that conduct research on infectious agents within city limits, The Boston Globe reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 16, 2005). The initial proposal called for all laboratories to obtain a city permit for research on any infectious organism.  Researchers would also have to prepare a list of viruses and bacteria in their laboratories that could pose a health risk, and to conduct yearly meetings to discuss their work with the public. The permit process would have given the public access to details of research conducted by hospitals, universities and pharmaceutical firms, the Globe reported. The Harvard Medical School, city hospitals and other medical heavy-hitters argued against the permit requirement, saying it could allow terrorists, competitors and activists to obtain details of their research. “Whether you’re doing cutting-edge research or developing a new product, usually it’s done under wraps until the final thing is ready,” said Andrew Levin, chief executive of Immunetics Inc. A new proposal issued in June mandates permits only for Biosafety Level 3 and 4 laboratories — which work with the most dangerous agents — and for lower-containment facilities that conduct research on weakened strains of anthrax or other deadly pathogens.  Thousands of Biosafety Level 2 laboratories that work with far less dangerous organisms would be exempted. The Boston Public Health Commission, which developed the proposal, expects to submit its final plan to the Boston health board within two months. If the proposal is approved, Boston would be the first major U.S. city to oversee research on dangerous pathogens at public and private laboratories, the Globe reported (Stephen Heuser, The Boston Globe, Aug. 23). Back to top       Pennsylvania Issues Powder Warning The state of Pennsylvania has advised hospitals and other health care agencies against opening mailings from a New York marketing firm that might contain a white powder, the Somerset Daily American reported today (see GSN, June 8). Roughly 4,000 Positive Promotions mailings went out this week to hospitals, home health agencies and hospice organizations in Pennsylvania, New York and Ohio, according to the Health Alliance of Pennsylvania. There have been no reports of illness connected to the mailings, and the FBI has not received any terror threats, according to the Daily American.  The Pennsylvania Health Department, however, has advised against opening the mailings. One sample from a mailing opened Tuesday came up slightly positive for the botulinum toxin under rapid testing.  Results from subsequent laboratory testing were “indeterminate,” according to the Health Department.  The state is conducting additional tests, with initial results coming back negative. Positive Promotions said it used corn starch in the mailing process (Dan DiPaolo, The Daily American, Aug. 24). Back to top

Chemical Attacks Aimed at Enemy, Hussein Lawyers Say Lawyers for former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and members of his one-time regime are making the case that chemical weapons attacks in the 1980s were aimed at rebels and the Iranian military, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 23). The seven defendants went on trial this week for allegedly directing the deaths of tens of thousands of Iraqi Kurds during the Anfal campaign of the late 1980s.  The Iraqi military dropped chemical bombs on northern villages and then forced surviving residents into prison camps, witnesses testified. Rather than focusing on the details of the testimony, defense lawyers have indicated that maimed and killed Kurds were collateral damage in the fight to repel the Iranian military from the region, the Times reported. Lawyers repeatedly asked witnesses whether fighters supporting Iran were staying in their villages.  They implied that village shelters were actually bunkers used by Iranian troops or Kurdish peshmerga rebels.  The defense asked one witness, Badrya Said Kheder, whether she understood the reason for the bombing. “There was no reason,” Kheder replied.  “They were just bombing us.” That last witness to testify yesterday acknowledged that he was a peshmerga fighter at the time of chemical attacks on his village, Ichmala, in 1987 and 1988.  One defense lawyer argued that because Mosa Abdullah Mosa knew to place a wet cloth over his mouth to help block the chemical agent, he must have been affiliated with the Iranian military. The defense then laid into Mosa with a series of questions:  Had he fought against Iraq?  Did the peshmerga take Iraq government personnel as prisoners?  Why did he take up arms against the government? Mosa, now a resident of Tennessee, said he was not asked to participate in military action.  “I was a guard in the First Brigade headquarters.”  He acknowledged that prisoners were taken, but said they were freed. The reason for resistance, he said:  “One goal was liberation, to have Kurdish identity, democracy and peace.” Defendant Ali Hassan al-Majid, also know as “Chemical Ali,” asked Mosa whether he knew any Iraqi military personnel, or solely the opposition.  The witness acknowledged that he did not know any Iraqi troops, and said Kurdish political parties led the region. “Then the state had no control at all over the area where he was,” said Majid, Hussein’s cousin and northern commander during the Anfal campaign. Added defendant and former intelligence officer Sabir Aziz al-Duri:  “The Iranians and Kurdish were joined” (Damien Cave, New York Times, Aug. 24). Back to top       Aum Chemist Appeals Death Sentence The Aum Shinrikyo chemist sentenced to death for helping the Japanese cult develop the sarin nerve agent it used to kill nearly 20 people has filed an appeal with the Japan’s Supreme Court, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Aug. 18). Masami Tsuchiya, 41, last week lost his appeal to the Tokyo High Court. He was convicted of murder and attempted murder for leading the cult’s efforts to develop VX, mustard and sarin agents, AP reported.  The group killed seven people with sarin in 1994 in the city of Matusmoto, then killed 12 and injured thousands in a 1995 gas attack on the Tokyo subway system (Associated Press, Aug. 24). Back to top

U.S. Speeds THAAD Missile Defense Deployment The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has accelerated plans to test and field the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense missile interceptor system, an agency official said last week (see GSN, July 13). The new schedule calls for deploying the first interceptors by late fiscal 2009 or early fiscal 2010, two years earlier than previous plans, by shortening the testing cycle and training troops at the same time, agency project manager Army Col. Charles Driessnack said during an annual missile defense conference in Hunstville, Ala. The THAAD system is designed to intercept enemy warheads in the final phase of flight, either in the upper atmosphere or above. Anticipating the most likely environments for using the system, the agency plans to test first in both desert and humid conditions, leaving other types of testing for later, InsideDefense.com reported. The agency plans to purchase two THAAD fire units while development activities continue, with the first unit to be delivered in fiscal 2009 and the second in fiscal 2010. The agency is scheduled next month to conduct the interceptor’s fourth flight test, the first with the official goal of intercepting a target.  The test will try to intercept a warhead that has separated from its booster.  The previous test in July successfully intercepted a nonseparating target, according to InsideDefense.com. An additional test, not scheduled to be an intercept effort, is set to occur shortly after the fourth, Driessnack said (InsideDefense.com/Military.com, Aug 24 Back to top       Japan Seeks More Missile Interceptors  Japan plans to speed deployment of missile defenses on its territory by purchasing 80 U.S.-made Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptors to be deployed in March 2007, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 20).  The planned purchase reflects Tokyo’s concerns following North Korea’s missile tests last month, after which Japanese defense chief Fukushiro Nukaga made the special request in a letter to U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, according to Kyodo News (see GSN, July 5). Japan had earlier planned to build its own PAC-3 interceptors (see GSN, Nov. 14, 2005), as well as Standard Missile 3 interceptors, which would have been deployed in 2008 and 2009.  The latest plan, however, calls for Tokyo to spend nearly $100 million to purchase U.S.-built systems, Kyodo reported (Carl Freire, Associated Press/Washington Post, Aug. 24).   Back to top

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