Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran has ignored a U.N. deadline to suspend sensitive nuclear activities, the Washington Post reported Friday (see GSN, Aug. 25). In response to the agency’s report, U.S. President George W. Bush called Iran a “grave threat” and said “there must be consequences.” Other top U.S. officials called for U.N. sanctions. “We are going to move this toward a sanctions resolution at the United Nations,” said Nicholas Burns, undersecretary of state for political affairs. “We expect others to join us.” However, no other world leaders who publicly addressed the issue used such harsh rhetoric, according to the Post. European officials expressed disappointment with Tehran but scheduled a meeting this week with Ali Larijani, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, remained defiant. “The Iranian nation will not accept for one moment any bullying, invasion and violation of its rights,” he said. Nuclear experts said, though, that Iran’s nuclear progress was slower than anticipated. Iranian officials had said there were plans to operate three cascades of 164 centrifuges by now. However, only one cascade has been assembled and it is not working consistently, the Post reported. “Their progress is far less than expected,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. “Whether it’s because of technical problems or self-restraint it’s hard to gauge, but I don’t think the U.S. can deliver on its promise to get hard sanctions when Iran is barely progressing.” Other experts warned that tough U.S. rhetoric was undermining diplomatic efforts. “Concerns about a slippery slope toward a military conflict with Iran have hurt U.S. efforts at diplomacy,” said Robert Einhorn, a former assistant secretary of state. “The administration approaches the idea of negotiations with Iran as if we are prepared to take yes for an answer, but also engages in activities that suggest regime change is the real objective.” Iranian officials have privately said they could freeze nuclear efforts if talks with the West were to resume, the Post reported (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Sept. 1). British Ambassador to the United Nations Emyr Jones-Parry said last week the Security Council would not press to penalize Iran for defying the Aug. 31 deadline before mid-September. “Once we’ve had the report from the [International Atomic Energy Agency], had a further chance to discuss that, capitals will have a clearer view of exactly how this should be carried forward, but I would expect activity here to resume toward the middle of September,” he said. Permanent Security Council member Russia has indicated reluctance to support sanctions, according to AP (Nick Wadhams, Associated Press I/Washington Post, Aug. 29). European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Larijani have tentatively arranged to meet tomorrow, AP reported. Senior negotiators of the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany are expected to meet Thursday in Berlin to discuss the outcome of that meeting. Washington and its allies agreed last week to wait for those results before pushing for punishment of Iran, according to AP. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan called for a negotiated solution to the standoff. “The best solution to the issue is talks,” he said. Annan on Sunday met with Ahmadinejad, who said Iran favored talks but would not first halt uranium enrichment. As a result, Germany expressed doubts about the Solana-Larijani meeting. “We must remain skeptical” that the talks will achieve results, said Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. “If not, the road to the U.N. Security Council will be unavoidable” (George Jahn, Associated Press II/Washington Post, Sept. 5). The European Union on Saturday agreed to give negotiators two weeks to clarify Tehran’s position, Reuters reported. “If the meeting goes well and Iran accepts the philosophy of the cooperation project we presented to it in June, I think we will be able to start a more formal negotiation,” France’s Le Journal du Dimanche quoted Solana as saying. “There’s no deadline, whenever we finish. ... We are going to start in the coming days and I hope that it will be very short. We don’t need many meetings,” he added. EU ministers said Solana would report to them in Brussels on Sept. 15 (Ingrid Melander, Reuters/Washington Post, Sept. 2). Meanwhile, a study by U.S. nuclear experts has found that Iran is spending significantly more on its nuclear program than could be justified economically for a program meant only to produce energy, the Albuquerque Journal reported Friday. The report from two U.S. national laboratories analyzes how cost-effective the program would be in dealing with Iran’s energy needs in order to evaluate the credibility of its claims about the program’s peaceful nature, according to the Journal (John Fleck, Albuquerque Journal, Sept. 1).
Representatives from North Korea, South Korea and the United States are reportedly meeting today in Beijing, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Aug. 24). U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill is in China as part of a regional tour. Earlier today in Tokyo, Hill said he was willing to meet with North Korean officials if delegates from other countries were in attendance. “We can look at other formats,” Hill said. “The time for organized, multilateral diplomacy in Asia is now” (Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Sept. 5). A U.S. official told Reuters, however, that Hill was not scheduled to meet with North Korean officials during the trip. “We’re not going to see the North Koreans while they are boycotting the six-party talks,” the official said (Carol Giacomo, Reuters/Washington Post, Sept. 2). North Korean leader Kim Jong Il might have entered China on Wednesday, prompting increased speculation that the North could be preparing for a nuclear test, the London Guardian reported. South Korean media reports of a special North Korean train entering Chinese territory came amid increased tension between the two allies over Pyongyang’s missile tests in July, according to the Guardian. “It’s quite clear that relations between China and North Korea are tense now,” said Shi Yinhong of Renmin University in Beijing. “Since the North Korean missile test, China has been indirectly supporting U.S. sanctions on Pyongyang. If today’s visit is confirmed, it may show that Kim Jong Il wants to complain about this.” “It is a critical time for North Korea. They are clearly frustrated. The financial restrictions are getting tighter and the Bush administration is showing no sign of flexibility,” said Peter Beck, a North Korea expert at the International Crisis Group in Seoul. “If North Korea wants to do a nuclear test, they would want to consult with China first” (Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, Aug. 30). South Korea, meanwhile, is considering possible responses to a North Korean nuclear test, Agence France-Presse reported Friday. “The government has started working on a concrete contingency plan in case North Korea carries out a nuclear testing,” said Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon. “I am willing to go to Pyongyang if it will help” bring Pyongyang back to negotiations on its nuclear program, Ban added (Park Chan-Kyong, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 5). Japan plans to declare a national emergency if Pyongyang conducts a nuclear test, AP reported Saturday. Tokyo would organize a crisis headquarters within the office of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, according to defense officials (Associated Press II/CentralChronicle.com, Sept. 2). North Korea has probably not perfected the technology to create deliverable warheads that would carry its full stockpile of plutonium, the Congressional Research Service said in a report released yesterday. Pyongyang might have one or two Nagasaki-type nuclear weapons, but could have sufficient fissile material for six bombs, according to the report. “The question of whether North Korea produced additional nuclear weapons with the plutonium that it apparently acquired after 2003 may depend on whether North Korea is able to develop a nuclear warhead that could be fitted onto its missiles,” the report says. “North Korea has few delivery systems that could deliver such a bomb to a U.S. or Japanese target,” it adds. “Thus, Pyongyang probably would not produce additional Nagasaki-type bombs but would retain its weapons-grade plutonium until it could use it in producing a nuclear warhead,” the documents says (Yonhap News Agency, Sept. 4).
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov met last month to discuss Washington’s plan to place conventional warheads on submarine-launched missiles that now carry nuclear warheads (see GSN, Aug. 9). The United States plans to convert a number of long-range Trident missiles for potential rapid use against terrorists or weapons of mass destruction. Rumsfeld said Russia should also consider converting its missiles, according to a State Department release. “If either of our countries or our friends and allies were threatened at some number of years into the future with a weapon of mass destruction or a capability that was lethal, I think any president, whether Russia or the United States, would like to have available a conventional weapon that could attack that party quickly and accurately and precisely and not feel that the only thing they had might be a nuclear weapon which they would not want to use,” Rumsfeld said. Rumsfeld noted concerns that the flight of a converted Trident could be mistaken for a nuclear launch and lead to an atomic response. Ivanov said that danger is of particular concern to his nation, the release states. Additional talks are necessary on the matter, he said. “These are preliminary plans,” Ivanov said. “I cannot announce right now that Russia will join such (an) initiative.” Rumsfeld argued that countries with nuclear weapons possess the technology to detect and track a missile launch, and to determine what sort of payload the weapon carries before it lands. Ivanov countered that consideration should be given to cruise missiles or new types of intermediate-range missiles. The two defense chiefs urged openness in dialogue on the issue during their Aug. 27 meeting in Alaska. Washington backs development of “appropriate communications links and confidence-building measures” in any missile conversion plan, Rumsfeld said (David McKeeby, U.S. State Department Washington File, Aug. 30).
A Japanese company that manufactures precision instruments is suspected of supplying Iran with technology that could be used to produce nuclear weapons, the Associated Press reported last week (see GSN, Aug. 25). Japanese authorities in August arrested the president and four other executives and employees of Mitutoyo Corp. They have also searched the offices of the Tokyo-based Iranian trading company Seian, said Japanese Trade Ministry official Hiroyuki Murakami. Mitutoyo is suspected of having exported dual-use equipment through Seian from 1984 to 1992 to a company connected with Iran’s nuclear program, according to Kyodo News (Carl Freire, Associated Press/Washington Post, Aug. 29). Mitutoyo has since 1995 exported roughly 10,000 precision measuring devices, most illegally, Kyodo reported Thursday. Investigative sources said some of the equipment might have been sent to North Korea and other countries by way of a black market network created by former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan (Kyodo News/Yahoo!News, Aug. 31).
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei last week observed the 10th anniversary of the adoption of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty by calling for nations to bring the pact into force (see GSN, July 18). The treaty is “our best hope of stemming nuclear proliferation,” he said. “The CTBT is key to a system of security we are trying to build. A system of security that does not rely on nuclear weapons,” ElBaradei said during a two-day symposium in Vienna on the treaty. “We either send a clear message that we want to see a world free from nuclear weapons or we will continue to see a gradual erosion of the kind of system we have tried to build since the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons was adopted in the late 1960s.” The treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons tests must be approved by 44 specific countries — nations that participated in the 1996 session of the Conference on Disarmament and had nuclear power or research reactors at the time. Seven countries — China, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Israel and the United States — have signed but not ratified the treaty. Another three nations — India, North Korea and Pakistan — have yet to sign the pact. Delays in bringing the treaty into force are “symptomatic of the slow progress with the regard to movement toward disarmament,” ElBaradei said, according to an IAEA release (IAEA release, Sept. 1).
Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran has been named special envoy for negotiations on a pending civilian nuclear technology sharing agreement with the United States, Reuters reported Thursday (see GSN, Aug. 24). Saran is expected to take over the post after retiring as foreign secretary at the end of the month, according to a statement by New Delhi. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has reaffirmed in recent statements that he would reject any potential changes made by the U.S. Congress to the deal. “We had concerns with both the House bill and the Senate bill,” said Anil Kakodkar, head of the Atomic Energy Department. “That is why the prime minister made the statement.” “This will clear many things and address the concerns raised,” he said (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Aug. 31).
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