Speaking yesterday at a meeting of the Military Officers Association of America, U.S. President George W. Bush vowed to work to keep weapons of mass destruction out of terrorist hands (Mandel Ngan/Getty Images). White House Releases Revised Antiterrorism Plan By Jon Fox, Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Preventing terrorist groups from acquiring weapons of mass destruction continues to be a priority for the United States, according to the most recent revision of the national antiterrorism strategy released yesterday by the White House (see GSN, Aug. 23). The strategy, the third version to be published since the Bush administration first released an antiterrorism plan in February 2003, declares that “weapons of mass destruction in the hands of terrorists is one of the gravest threats we face.”  ..Full Story

EU-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed A senior Iranian official said today that “a procedural matter” has led to the postponement of crucial nuclear negotiations with the European Union, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 5)...Full Story

U.S. Destroys Half of Chemical Munitions The U.S. Army as of Aug. 30 had eliminated half of the nation’s stockpile of chemical munitions (see GSN, April 18)...Full Story

	Wednesday, September 6, 2006

White House Releases Revised Antiterrorism Plan By Jon Fox, Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Preventing terrorist groups from acquiring weapons of mass destruction continues to be a priority for the United States, according to the most recent revision of the national antiterrorism strategy released yesterday by the White House (see GSN, Aug. 23). The strategy, the third version to be published since the Bush administration first released an antiterrorism plan in February 2003, declares that “weapons of mass destruction in the hands of terrorists is one of the gravest threats we face.”  The 2003 document also listed preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction as a central goal. The newest strategic outline also stresses the importance being able to trace nuclear material to its point of origin as part of a “new deterrence calculus.”  Attribution needs are not explicitly addressed in the 2003 outline “We will ensure that our capacity to determine the source of any attack is well-known, and that our determination to respond overwhelmingly to any attack is never in doubt,” the report states.  Not only would terrorists face retaliatory action but so would those who aid or assist such groups. The antiterrorism outline describes broad, vague plans to prevent the transfer of all WMD-related technology but indicated the specific focus was on weapon-usable fissile materials. Iran emerges in the report as a potential source of weapons of mass destruction or WMD technology for terrorist groups.  “Most troubling is the potential WMD-terrorism nexus that emanates from Tehran,” it said, while labeling Iran the most active state sponsor of international terrorism. The report also describes the hope to deter WMD attacks by improving the nation’s ability to mitigate the effects of such a strike — essentially limiting massive casualties, economic disruption and panic — as a short-term goal.  How that goal will be met is not outlined in the strategy. Frances Townsend, assistant to the president for homeland security and counterterrorism, told reporters yesterday that the newest White House strategy is “far more detailed” in terms of WMD-related information than documents previously made public.  Compared to the 2003 report, the most recent revision describes goals in preventing WMD proliferation more explicitly and in bullet-pointed items. “Together, we pledge we'll continue to work together to stop the world's most dangerous men from getting their hands on the world's most dangerous weapons,” President George W. Bush, echoing language from the report, said yesterday in a speech to the Military Officers Association of America. Nuclear Attribution The potential for a rogue nation to transfer nuclear material to a nonstate group is a possibility that has haunted antiterrorism experts, but deterring that transfer could be difficult.  If tracing nuclear material back to its source is not possible then threatening a counterstrike against the terrorists’ suppliers is more difficult. When nuclear terrorism experts consider attribution they often comment on the difficultly of that process (see GSN, June 21).  In 2002, the United States was still several years away from having the capability to determine the origins of nuclear material after any potential explosion, according to a National Academy of Sciences Report. Both government officials and nongovernmental experts have been tightlipped about the extent of U.S. attribution technology, and precise capabilities remain shielded behind a wall of classification (see GSN, July 28). At a hearing before the Senate Judiciary Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security Subcommittee in July, however, experts identified attribution as a issue of concern. “I don’t know if your committee wants a closed hearing sometime, but that is a big problem area,” said Fred Ikle, a scholar with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former defense undersecretary under President Ronald Reagan. Jay Davis, a former national security fellow at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, wrote in 2003 that “there is no assurance” that in the wake of a nuclear blast that the United States would be able “to uniquely determine a perpetrator.” While avoiding specifics of attribution abilities — technical forensics fused with intelligence and law enforcement data — the report released yesterday by the White House suggests that such capabilities are still being developed. “We will develop the capability to assign responsibility,” it said, listing the initiative as part of the nation’s short-term plan to combat terrorism.  No specific timeframe is noted. Back to top       U.K. Airline Plot Trial Expected to Begin in 2008 Suspects in the alleged plot to detonate explosives on passenger airplanes flying between the United Kingdom and United States are not expected to go on trial until 2008, the Financial Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 6). Prosecutors in London said they would be ready for trial no earlier than January 2008, due to what is expected to be an extended case involving a large number of people. Fifteen people have been charged to date in connection with the case.  Eight men face counts of conspiracy to murder and preparing an act of terrorism, while lesser charges were filed against the others. Police are questioning another five suspects, the Times reported (Nikki Tait, Financial Times, Sept. 5). Back to top

EU-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed A senior Iranian official said today that “a procedural matter” has led to the postponement of crucial nuclear negotiations with the European Union, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 5). “We will not have the meeting today in Vienna,” Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, Iran’s envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, told AP.  “Both sides are arranging for a couple of days later.” Iranian officials appeared reluctant to attend the session. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said the time and place of meeting was still “under discussion by both sides” (George Jahn, Associated Press I/Washington Post, Sept. 6). Meanwhile, Russia might back U.N. economic sanctions against Iran for ignoring the Security Council’s demand that it freeze sensitive nuclear efforts, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said today. “We will consider this from all points of view, in totality, based on our goal of not allowing the spread of WMD and technology that is linked with this,” Lavrov said.  “Whether we use (sanctions) or not has still to be decided, since any economic measures must be commensurate with real threats to international security” (Agence France-Presse I/Interactive Investor, Sept. 6). However, a senior aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that Moscow remained reluctant to support sanctions against Tehran, AP reported. Igor Shuvalov said sanctions could drive oil prices up further and undermine regional stability. “We could suffer more than anyone else if they built nuclear weapons,” he said.  “We don’t mind using a stick, but we don’t want that stick to hit us or our partners over the head.” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao also warned that sanctions could prove counterproductive (Jahn, Associated Press, Sept. 6). Elsewhere, U.S. President George W. Bush said the United States would not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, AP reported. “I am not going to allow this to happen,” he said.  “And no future American president can allow it, either.” Bush promised to work with other countries to find a diplomatic solution. “The world’s free nations will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon,” he said. Administration officials, meanwhile, said yesterday that several weeks of diplomacy would be needed before any potential sanctions were approved. “There is going to be some work that’s required in the Security Council,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.  “I would expect that that’s going to be tough, intensive diplomacy over the course of the coming weeks.” He added that the council’s resolution imposing an Aug. 31 uranium enrichment freeze deadline already provided for sanctions and that Washington intended to move “down that pathway” (Barry Schweid, Associated Press II, Sept. 5). U.S. Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Gregory Schulte yesterday called for the council to impose sanctions, AFP reported. “The time has come for the Security Council to back international diplomacy with international sanctions,” he said, calling Iran’s nuclear efforts a “threat to international peace and security.” “Iran’s leaders are making the negative choice, a course of confrontation over one of negotiation,” he said.  “This course will bring not reward but isolation and sanction.” Sanctions should be “applied in a graduated fashion” and “target Iran’s weapons programs and those who guide and support them,” he added (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse II/IranMania.com, Sept. 5). The International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest report on Tehran’s nuclear activities is prompting renewed debate over the nature of Iran’s nuclear activities, the New York Times reported today. Inspectors said in a report released Thursday that they had for the third time in three years found unexplained traces of highly enriched uranium at Iranian facilities.  In the first two instances, the agency concluded that some of the material likely came from contaminated equipment obtained from Pakistan.  However, the latest sample does not match the nuclear “fingerprints” of the particles in the other two, an official familiar with the inspections said. However, the report also says Tehran has made little progress in installing uranium enrichment equipment at its main operational site in Natanz. The apparent contradiction might indicate that the parts of Iran’s nuclear program it has revealed to the world are less advanced than other, covert efforts, said Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. “That’s not only plausible, but likely,” he said Monday.  “A prudent American approach should include the possibility that the negotiations about the overt track are essentially a conjurer’s distraction to keep us focused on the hand that’s moving while the other one is putting the rabbit into the hat” (Sanger/Broad, New York Times, Sept. 6). Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that God’s will was moving against Bush, AFP reported. “I am telling him (Bush) that all the world is threatening you since the general path that the world is taking is towards worshipping God and divinity,” Ahmadinejad said.  “This massive stream is moving and you are nothing in comparison to God’s will” (Agence France-Presse III/IranMania.com, Sept. 6). The Iranian parliament’s foreign affairs committee has approved a bill that could block international inspections of the country’s nuclear facilities, AFP reported yesterday. “The committee of foreign affairs and national security has adopted the bill after a first reading,” said Kazem Jalali, the committee’s spokesman. “The commission must then adopt the bill in a second reading, and it would come into force if there is pressure against Iran and in the case of [U.N.] sanctions,” he said (Agence France-Presse IV/IranMania.com, Sept. 5). Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, traveling in Washington, said yesterday that the United States is not likely to invade his country, the Washington Post reported. “America will not make the mistake of attacking Iran,” he added.  “Iran is not Iraq” (Robin Wright, Washington Post, Sept. 6). Back to top       India Upgrades Nuclear Security After Terror Warning India’s national security adviser announced yesterday that terror warnings have led the country to upgrade security at its nuclear facilities, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Aug. 15). “We can assure you that we have completely revamped security for nuclear establishments. ... The arrangements are adequate for the threats we face,” said M.K. Narayanan. New Delhi’s 22 nuclear installations remain under armed guard, including anti-aircraft weapons.  The atomic cores are kept behind blast-proof steel and concrete, AP reported. The U.S. Embassy in New Delhi warned last month of possible terrorist attacks on or around the country’s Independence Day, Aug. 15.  No incidents occurred (Elizabeth Roche, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 5). Back to top       Nuclear Black Market Leader to Undergo Surgery Pakistan announced today that former top nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan would undergo prostate cancer surgery in Karachi, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Aug. 22). Khan has been living under house arrest in Islamabad since 2004 for his involvement in an international nuclear black market enterprise. The government did not state the date for the operation, according to the Associated Press (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 6). Back to top       U.S. Conducts Subcritical Nuclear Test The Los Alamos National Laboratory on Aug. 30 conducted a subcritical nuclear test at the Nevada Test Site (see GSN, Feb. 24). The experiment, “Unicorn,” was the 23rd subcritical test conducted to date by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Subcritical experiments are used to collect information to help ensure the safety and functionality of the U.S. nuclear arsenal without conducting underground atomic detonations.  The tests do not create a critical mass, so there is no nuclear explosion, according to an NNSA press release (National Nuclear Security Administration release, Aug. 30). Back to top       U.S., Chinese Officials Consider Warning North Korea Against Nuclear Weapons Test The U.S. point man on the North Korea nuclear crisis said today in Beijing that he and his Chinese counterpart discussed the possibility of issuing a warning to Pyongyang that it should not conduct an atomic weapons test, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 5). Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said he and Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei discussed the need to make clear that a test “would be a very, very unwelcome development.” Hill said he and Wu also discussed a U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on the North for its July 5 missile launches. “I made it very clear that the United States would be pursuing our obligations,” he said. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, however, warned that sanctions “may even prove counterproductive.” “The parties involved should be cautious about moving towards sanctions,” he said. Hill accused Pyongyang of refusing to cooperate by boycotting multilateral nuclear negotiations. “Clearly we are in a very difficult moment in the six-party talks,” he said.  “That’s because (North Korea) is not giving any signals that it wants to return” (Audra Ang, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 6). Japanese Defense Minister Nukaga Fukushiro said yesterday that North Korea is unlikely to conduct nuclear weapons or more missile tests soon, Yonhap News Agency reported. “I do not believe we are in a situation facing an imminent underground nuclear test by North Korea,” Fukushiro told NHK broadcasting (Yonhap News Agency, Sept. 6). Meanwhile, a train reportedly carrying North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has turned back from the country’s border with China, Agence France-Presse reported today. Satellite imagery showed the train moving south from the border town of Shinuiju yesterday, Yonhap quoted South Korean government sources as saying. “The exact location of Kim’s train will not be disclosed but we can say that there is no sign of his impending trip to China,” an official said (Agence France-Presse, Sept. 6). Back to top

Smallpox Vaccine Virus Strain Could Determine Number of Deaths, Adverse Effects The strain of smallpox virus used to produce a vaccine could determine how many people suffer significant complications or die during a mass vaccination program, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 4). A study published last month in PLos Medicine examined the rates of death and postvaccinal encephalitis — swelling of the brain — linked to a number of smallpox vaccines. The New York City Board of Health vaccinia strain, the type stockpiled in the United States, caused 1.4 deaths per 1 million vaccinations, according to an analysis of historical records.  The death rate linked to the Lister strain, maintained widely in Europe, was linked to 8.4 deaths per million.  Older strains proved more deadly — the Bern strain had a death rate of 55 per million, while the Copenhagen strain was linked to 31.2 deaths per million patients. Cases of encephalitis followed the same trend.  There were 2.9 cases per million for people who received the New York strain vaccination, 26.2 with the Lister strain, 33.3 cases with the Copenhagen strain and 44.9 cases with the Bern strain. “People in the U.S. can count themselves lucky that they live where a less pathogenic strain of vaccinia is used,” study lead author Mirjam Kretzschmar told the Times. European nations continue to stockpile the Lister strain because its seed virus is widely available, she said. The potential for side effects from vaccines now being developed would not be known until they are used in a mass vaccination program. Some deaths are unavoidable in such a campaign.  The researchers figured that a mass vaccination effort in the Netherlands, a country of 16 million, would cause 10 deaths using the New York strain and 55 using the Lister strain. Smallpox itself can kill up to one-third of those who become infected (Nicholas Bakalar, New York Times, Sept. 5). Back to top

U.S. Destroys Half of Chemical Munitions The U.S. Army as of Aug. 30 had eliminated half of the nation’s stockpile of chemical munitions (see GSN, April 18). The Army Chemical Materials Agency has destroyed more than 1.7 million weapons since disposal began in 1990.  The tally includes bombs, rockets, mortars, projectiles, land mines and spray tanks carrying nerve and blister agents, according to an agency press release. Munitions eliminated to date contained more than 39 percent of the U.S. arsenal of chemical agent (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Aug. 30). Meanwhile, the Pine Bluff Arsenal in Arkansas last week announced a milestone in its work to destroy kits once used in training soldiers and civilians to identify and handle chemical agents. The facility has eliminated 4,906 K941 chemical agent identification sets — the largest known stockpile of such kits, according to a CMA press release.  Another 481 sets remain to be destroyed by next month following a brief changeover. The United States from 1928 to 1969 manufactured more than 170,000 identification sets, each containing small, diluted amounts of mustard and lewisite agents (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Aug. 29). Back to top       Russian CW Disposal Site Ready to Begin Operations A Russian state commission has cleared the way for operations to begin this week at the chemical weapons disposal facility at Maradykovsky, ITAR-Tass reported yesterday (see GSN, June 1). The Kirov Region site’s buildings, facilities, processing lines and utilities have all met technical and environmental safety requirements, the commission said. “Work has been done to a high standard.  As for defects and problems identified by the commission, they were removed in time.  There is nothing stopping the facility from being launched,” said regional official Mikhail Manin. The Maradykovsky depot stores 6.9 tons of chemical agent in 40,000 aviation bombs and missile warheads.  It contains the second-largest stockpile among seven Russian chemical weapons storage sites, ITAR-Tass reported. The first stage of work is scheduled to launch on Friday (ITAR-Tass/RedOrbit.com, Sept. 5. Back to top       Japanese Court Denies Sarin Attacker’s Appeal The Japanese Supreme Court on Monday dismissed a final appeal of a life sentence for a former cult member involved in a 1994 sarin attack in the city of Matsumoto, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Aug. 24). Noboru Nakamura was a member of the Aum Supreme Truth cult, which also carried out the deadly 1995 sarin release in the Tokyo subway system.  The Matsumoto attack resulted in seven deaths, according to AP. Along with taking part in the 1994 incident, Nakamura was convicted of killing two people and helping with construction of the cult’s sarin production plant. Thirteen other Aum members — including founder Shoko Asahara, who is sentenced to death — are still awaiting decisions on appeal, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse, Sept. 5). Back to top

North Korea Believes July Missile Tests Were a Mistake, South Korean Lawmaker Says A South Korean lawmaker said today that Pyongyang now regards this summer’s missile launches as a mistake due to the subsequent international condemnation, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Sept. 5). “North Korea’s leadership has concluded in an internal report that the missile tests were a mistake,” Choi Jae-cheon of the ruling Uri Party told AFP. He said the country’s leadership was taken aback by the level of condemnation, especially from longtime ally China. “North Korea’s leadership believes the missile launch has caused unwanted political results as it deepened the country’s isolation,” Choi said. He also said Pyongyang would carefully watch a Sept. 14 summit between South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and U.S. President George W. Bush. “At the summit, however, there will be no significant progress over the North Korean nuclear issue,” Choi added (Agence France-Presse, Sept. 6). Back to top

U.S. Missile Defense Program Could Lead to New Arms Race, Top Russian General Warns Russia’s top military commander has warned that the nascent U.S. antiballistic missile system could force the two countries into another arms race, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Sept. 5). “Deploying the large-scale U.S. antimissile shield threatens to spark a new arms race,” Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky told the Polish daily Dziennik. He said Washington’s plan to base interceptors in central Europe remained of particular concern to Moscow (see GSN, Aug. 21). “We are firmly convinced that, if the U.S. project is carried out, it could lead to the deployment near the Russian border of systems which threaten to upset the strategic balance in weapons positioning,” Baluyevski said (Agence France-Presse, Sept. 6). Back to top

San Francisco Uses Fish to Test Water Safety San Francisco is using bluegill fish as an early warning system for potential terrorist contamination of the city’s water supply, the San Francisco Chronicle reported today (see GSN, Feb. 23). Monitoring technology installed in April at a water treatment plant tracks the behavior of eight to 12 fish that live in a tank at the facility.  If it detects unexpected numbers of fish coughs or other signs of agitation, “the system immediately triggers water samples to be taken, and the staff are alerted by pager and e-mail,” said Tony Winnicker, spokesman for the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. Each system unit costs $110,000.  Units are expected to be placed at two more treatment plants, the Chronicle reported. The city already conducts regular testing and treatment to eliminate water-borne diseases, whether natural or introduced intentionally.  “We do more than 100,000 water-quality tests every year and hundreds of tests a day throughout the system,” Winnicker said. The new system would best be used for detection of nonbiological materials such as pesticides, mercury, cyanide, heavy metals, fuel and phosphates, according to Jeff Goodrich, president of manufacturer Intelligent Automation. “The fish are monitored 24/7,” Winnicker said.  “The fish lead quite happy lives — they’re well fed.  Amidst the computers and equipment is a big pile of fish food and treats” (Keay Davidson, San Francisco Chronicle, Sept. 6).   Back to top

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