IAEA to Report Some Progress on Iran, Diplomats Say

Diplomats close to the International Atomic Energy Agency said a highly anticipated report on Iran’s nuclear program is expected to note some cooperation from Tehran in disclosing its past nuclear activities but that some important questions might be left unanswered, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 13).

The report from IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei was expected as early as today.

The U.N. Security Council is likely to use the agency report on Iran’s nuclear transparency and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana’s separate report on continued Iranian uranium enrichment efforts in determining the timing and severity of new sanctions against the country.

Diplomats said Solana would almost certainly report that Iran has continued to refuse to halt its uranium enrichment program, which Western powers suspect is producing nuclear weapons fuel but Tehran insists is aimed solely at power production.

IAEA diplomats said ElBaradei’s report would probably find that Iran has made some progress on boosting nuclear transparency.

Western powers fear that such a finding could bolster an argument put forward by China and Russia that new Security Council sanctions would compromise Iran’s cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. 

The West has worried that Tehran might seek to sustain Chinese and Russian opposition to a third round of sanctions by offering a certain level of cooperation, Reuters reported.  Iranian leaders, theoretically, could then delay responses to IAEA inquiries while they stockpile weapon-grade uranium.

“We may well see some clear cooperation from Iran but it's unclear whether it will be enough to actually move forward in the ‘work plan,’” said one Western diplomat in reference to details on Iran’s nuclear program that Tehran promised to gradually disclose in August.

Diplomats also said Iran might have handed IAEA officials classified documentation on its uranium-enriching centrifuges that could allude to Iranian attempts to use its enrichment process for military ends. 

The diplomats were uncertain whether IAEA officials were allowed to interview leaders in Iran’s nuclear program thought to be connected to the country’s military establishment, or whether the officials viewed laboratories developing a new line of high-speed P-2 centrifuges.  To date, Iran has relied on older, less reliable P-1 centrifuges for its uranium enrichment work.

“Whether everything was put on the table (by Iran) that needs to be there remains to be seen,” said an EU diplomat.

Meanwhile, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Iran did not turn down a request by ElBaradei to meet with Iranian nuclear officials this week before completing his report.

“This is false.  He has a standing invitation to meet senior officials. He contemplated accepting it but due to conflicting schedules he decided to do this visit at a later time,” said IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming (Mark Heinrich, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Nov. 13).

Iran has given IAEA officials a long-sought document that describes shaping uranium into hemispheres to form the “pit” of a nuclear weapon, the New York Times reported today.

Iranian nuclear officials did not explain why they held the document or their plans for its use.  U.N. nuclear watchdog officials had previously examined the document inside Iran, but have pushed for two years to obtain a copy to study in detail.

The nuclear core instructions are not likely to flesh out the agency’s understanding of Iran’s two-decade nuclear history, but Iran is likely to refer to their release as an example of its full cooperation with the nuclear agency, the Times said.

The Iranian move is expected to be included in ElBaradei’s report.

Iran obtained the instructions as part of a 1987 transaction with the nuclear smuggling ring run by Abdul Qadeer Khan, who was then a top Pakistani nuclear scientist.  The deal also included uranium enrichment equipment (Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, Nov. 13).

In Washington, U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell said yesterday that an intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear program would be completed by the end of November, the Washington Post reported.

He said the report’s completion has been delayed by information obtained in late spring that required officials to rethink some of the estimate’s conclusions.

“We had more information that inserted some new questions, so the effort has been to sort that out,” McConnell said, adding that the government would not release an unclassified report of the estimate’s primary findings under a new administration policy (see GSN, Oct. 29).

McConnell said he aimed “to present the clinical evidence and let it stand on its own merits with its own qualification,” implying that it would include dissenting opinions.  “There are always disagreements on every national intelligence estimate,” he said.

When asked how he would react if the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush misused the estimate for political purposes, he said, “If it were cherry-picked in an inappropriate way, then for me there's a professional obligation to object, and I would submit my resignation” (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Nov. 14).

Iran’s intelligence minister said today that Hossein Mousavian, a former top Iranian nuclear negotiator, has been accused of turning secret information over to the British Embassy and other foreign entities, the Associated Press reported.

Mousavian worked as Iran’s chief nuclear envoy during the tenure of reformist President Mohammad Khatami.  He was detained for a short time in May on espionage suspicions, Iranian state media said.

“He has been informed of the charges that he has given the British Embassy information contrary to the security of the country,” Iranian state media quoted Intelligence Minister Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi as saying.

The report did not give the starting date for his trial (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press/Google News, Nov. 14).

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