U.S. Intelligence Finding on Iran Could Lead to Diplomacy, Analysts Say

By Jon Fox
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A pair of top nonproliferation analysts expressed hope today that the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iranian nuclear efforts would open a door to greater diplomatic engagement between Iran and the United States (see GSN, Dec. 3).

The Bush administration has long alleged that Iran is operating a nuclear weapons program and has refused any direct discussions with the Iranian government on the matter.

With the news yesterday that U.S. intelligence analysts concluded with “high confidence” that Iran suspended nuclear weapons research in 2003 and those efforts remained suspended as of mid-2007, the United States has arrived at a position held in many European capitals and at the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“What you have yesterday is the United States recalibrating itself,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.  “Perhaps it needed a two-by-four in terms of information to change its mind but it came to a point that many had come to much earlier.”

Albright, speaking at an Arms Control Association forum, said he hoped the new estimate removes the specter of military action against Iran.

“The military option appears increasingly unnecessary and counterproductive,” he said.  Albright called for a similar recalibration in the level of U.S. diplomatic engagement with Iran.

In discussing Iran, U.S. officials have said repeatedly that all options are open to consideration, including the use of force.

Nonproliferation expert Joseph Cirincione, speaking at the forum, called the new intelligence estimate a “nail in the coffin of the Bush doctrine.”  The idea that force and the threat of regime change can be used to address proliferation concerns “has proved to be a complete disaster,” said Cirincione, nuclear policy director at the Center for American Progress.

The new estimate, he said, “is a clear sign of the struggle within the Bush administration, within the executive branch, over proliferation policy, over strategic direction for the United States.”

In the short term, Cirincione suggested the new assessment from the 16 intelligence agencies could undermine U.S. efforts to exert pressure on Tehran but that over time the estimate could reap benefits.

“I wouldn’t see this as frozen in time,” he said.

The report could open the door for more pragmatic elements within the administration to push for a greater level of diplomatic contact with Iran.  Engagement, Cirincione argued, was used to great effect with Libya and seems to have aided progress in the nuclear standoff with North Korea. 

Talks could start at levels below Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, he said, perhaps through the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations or Nicholas Burns, the State Department’s point man on Iran, he said.

Both Albright and Cirincione warned that this new assessment does not mean Iran is not a concern. 

“I start from the premise that we do not know for certain what Iran’s intentions are.  Is it still interested in acquiring nuclear weapons or are they willing to end or defer the program for a different strategic relationship with the West?” Cirincione said.  “Our policy has to test the latter while minimizing the chances of the former.”

He called for efforts to contain the Iranian enrichment program and  to verify the extent of the nation’s nuclear activities.

Efforts to pressure Iran on the nuclear issue “remain valid and urgent,” Albright said.  “There is an urgency to this problem, the NIE is not saying everything is OK.”

“Iran continues to make progress on developing a nuclear weapons capability that would produce weapons grade uranium relatively quickly following a decision to do so,” he cautioned.

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