India Could Delay Pursuit of U.S. Nuclear Trade Deal

Hardening domestic opposition to a nuclear trade deal with the United States could force Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to postpone asking for a change to international nuclear export rules, Bloomberg reported today (see GSN, Aug. 22).

Political parties on the left and right have criticized the deal, which would allow India to purchase U.S. nuclear materials and technology if New Delhi agrees to allow international inspectors to monitor its civilian nuclear activities.

To take effect, the deal must receive U.S. congressional approval of details finalized last month and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group must agree to exempt India from trade guidelines that ban nuclear exports to nations that have not joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

The United States has already exempted India from many of its own nuclear nonproliferation rules (Thomas/Pradham, Bloomberg, Aug. 23).

Indian parliamentary approval is not technically required for the deal to advance, but lawmakers’ opposition could threaten Singh’s leadership.

On the left, one of four communist parties that have opposed the pact announced today that it would oppose Singh’s government if he pursued the deal.

“We will withdraw support to the government if it goes ahead with operationalizing the agreement,” said the members of the central committee of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in a statement released after a two-day meeting.

Communist parties are not a formal part of Singh’s ruling coalition, but their lack of support could nevertheless force early elections, according to AFP.

The leftist groups have expressed concern that the deal would reduce India’s sovereignty by allowing too much U.S. influence over the nation’s domestic affairs.

On the right, the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party has also opposed the agreement, warning that it would threaten the New Delhi’s nuclear weapons programs, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Aug. 23).

One political analyst said all the parties needed more time to find a compromise solution.

“The problem … is that neither side agrees with the other, but neither wants to break with the other, because that would possibly lead to the government’s fall and elections,” said analyst Pran Chopra.  “So the question over the next few days is how to find a reasonable, acceptable way of continuing to wait while the problem sorts itself out” (Henry Chu, Los Angeles Times, Aug. 23).

Despite the prospect of delays, Singh yesterday expressed confidence that the deal would eventually take effect, the Associated Press reported.

“It is certainly true that there is political turbulence here in New Delhi, but I am confident we will overcome it,” he said.  “As someone said, if winter comes can spring be far behind” (Rajesh Mahapatra, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Aug. 22).

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