Iran Slows Centrifuge Installation at Natanz Plant

Iran’s installation of uranium enriching centrifuges at its underground Natanz facility has slowed over the last two months, Reuters reported Friday (see GSN, Aug. 3).

Iran appeared on its way to having 3,000 centrifuges operating by the end of July in its drive to achieve “industrial scale” nuclear fuel production.  However, the country remains far short of that goal, according to diplomats who have been tracking U.N. inspections of the site.

Outside analysts have been unable to determine the cause of the installation shortfall, but diplomats and nuclear analysts have suggested technical obstacles and political motives as sources for the slowdown.

Iran has had difficulty operating significant numbers of centrifuges simultaneously for extended lengths of time at supersonic speed, a step necessary to enrich uranium in quantities sufficient to work as fuel or in weapons.

Iran announced achieving “industrial capacity” after installing about 2,000 centrifuges in the first half of 2007, although analysts said it had still not overcome technical problems at the Natanz plant.  Tehran ultimately aims to operate 55,000 centrifuges in 300 interlinked networks, or “cascades,” at Natanz.

“Last week we were told that Iran had only 10 cascades running, with two more in vacuum-testing (without uranium feedstock inside) and some other centrifuges being tested for leakage,” a European Union diplomat told Reuters.

“Iran has apparently deliberately slowed down the commissioning of centrifuges, which means they've made little progress since the last [International Atomic Energy Agency] report to us in May,” he said, referring to a report to the agency’s 35-nation governing board.

“Whether this is a technical issue, or political signal, no one knows yet,” he said.

One diplomat confirmed a continuation of the slowdown in centrifuge installation first discussed by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei on July 9.  The diplomat said, though, there was no evidence of technical problems at the Natanz plant.

“Iran rushed the commissioning in the spring to convey a fait accompli to Washington,” said the diplomat.  “The slowdown is political too.  They could speed up again whenever they want.”

Iran is probably struggling over technical problems with its existing centrifuges, according to some independent nuclear nonproliferation analysts.

“It never made any technical sense to install so many centrifuges before the cascades in the pilot plant were working well,” said Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.  “Perhaps the political leaders finally listened to their technicians that haste makes waste.”

Meanwhile, Western nations have put off placing new sanctions on Iran until September while Tehran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog discuss strategies for reducing concerns about the nuclear program (see GSN, July 23).

"The impression I get from governments is that they are pretty relaxed, that Iran has a pretty high failure rate with centrifuges, that it can't run them at high speed," said Gary Samore, director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"The critical point is tens of thousands of centrifuges. Iran won't reach that for five to 10 years," he said, ruling out the possibility that Iran is running a secret enrichment facility (Mark Heinrich, Reuters I/The Scotsman, Aug. 3).

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman yesterday denied any slowdown of the country’s nuclear program and reiterated that Tehran would not halt its atomic activities, Reuters reported.

"Iran's nuclear activities continue as planned and scheduled," Mohammad Ali Hosseini said at a weekly news conference.

The German publication Focus quoted top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani as saying that it remained possible that Iran might suspend uranium enrichment in response to negotiations with European nations.  However, Hosseini said the quote was inaccurate.

“I have talked to Mr. Larijani and this report was not a correct reflection of his comments,” Hosseini said.  “The suspension [of uranium enrichment] is unacceptable.  It is completely ruled out.” (Reuters II/Jordan Times, Aug. 5)

Meanwhile, IAEA negotiators were in Tehran today to lay the groundwork for future inspections of uranium enrichment sites, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 30).

A new round of IAEA inspections would aim to clarify Iran’s nuclear intentions.  Iranian officials have maintained that the country’s nuclear program is only intended for power generation, but Western nations have charged that its civilian nuclear program is a cover for producing nuclear weapons.

“Negotiations between the four-member technical delegation of the IAEA, which arrived today, and Iranian nuclear authorities will begin in the next few hours,” said an unnamed official.

The IAEA delegation headed by Michiro Hosaya is expected to meet with Iranian officials led by Mohammed Saeedi, deputy head of Iran’s atomic energy organization (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Aug. 6).

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