Iran-IAEA Nuclear Plan Receives Qualified Western Support

By Greg Webb
Global Security Newswire

VIENNA — Despite having serious concerns over the International Atomic Energy Agency’s plan to understand Iran’s past nuclear activity, the United States and other Western nations today agreed grudgingly to allow the initiative a chance to succeed (see GSN, Sept. 10).

The countries’ decision to reduce their criticism of agency head Mohamed ElBaradei might have been forced by a lack of support from other nations, but they could also be hoping that the plan fails and thus ratchets up pressure on Iran by early next year.

Officials in Washington today announced plans to convene a meeting among the permanent five members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany, to develop strategies for boosting that pressure, the Associated Press reported.

The United States hopes the council will impose a third round of economic sanctions against Tehran to pressure Iranian leaders to freeze the nation’s nuclear activities.  Iran has so far ignored earlier council resolutions.

“We of course would have liked to have seen a new Security Council resolution drafted by now, but again this works on the timetable of the Security Council which isn't always our timetable," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said today.  “We're confident we'll be able to move forward and get a new Security [Council] resolution.”

ElBaradei’s plan, announced late last month, calls on Iran to answer agency questions about seven key aspects of the nation’s past nuclear research, including its development of two types of uranium enrichment centrifuges.

Western nations have criticized the so-called “work plan” for seemingly limiting the scope of the agency’s investigation and for addressing the controversial issues in succession, creating concern that Iran could delay study of some nuclear activities by stalling the agency on others.

The issue has simmered at this week’s meeting of the agency’s governing board, boiling over yesterday when ElBaradei left the board meeting during a European Union statement that he felt failed to adequately support his work plan, according to diplomats here.

The statement lacked the usual courtesies afforded to ElBaradei and his staff, the diplomats said.  The tone “seemed unnecessary,” said one Western diplomat.

ElBaradei today publicly denied he was upset, but some officials knowledgeable of agency affairs confirmed otherwise.

The IAEA chief began the meeting’s final day of closed meetings this morning by issuing a call for more backing from the board.

“He told the board, ‘You can be firm in expressing your concerns, but you should support your Secretariat.  We have no hidden agenda,’” said another diplomat.

“ElBaradei has stuck his neck out,” the Western diplomat added.  “He has invested a lot in persuading Iran to decouple its cooperation with the agency from other issues.”

“He feels this is a crucial moment” in the nuclear crisis, the Western diplomat continued.  “He feels these are war and peace times.”

In statements to the board today, the United States and the so-called EU-3 — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — expressed great distrust over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but agreed to give ElBaradei’s plan a chance to work.  The three European nations have led Western efforts to persuade Iran to suspend its indigenous nuclear program in exchange for a package of economic and political incentives.

“To be honest, the United States fears that Iran has no intention of coming clean to the IAEA but rather seeks to delay further U.N. Security Council action while forging ahead developing bomb-making capabilities,” said U.S. Ambassador Gregory Schulte.

He also offered a conciliatory remark for ElBaradei.

“The work plan reflects the earnest efforts of the [IAEA] Secretariat to implement the decisions of the board and the U.N. Security Council in regard to resolving outstanding safeguards issues,” he said.

“Whether the work plan constitutes a significant step forward will depend solely on Iran,” added German Ambassador Peter Gottwald, speaking for the EU-3.  “If Iran delays or evades the clarification of the outstanding issues, the work plan will be a failure.”

Still, Gottwald expressed worry over the plan’s structure.

“We are … concerned by the sequential nature of the work plan, as it may possibly be used to delay the clarification of outstanding questions,” he said.  “We would have preferred an approach providing for parallel efforts on all those questions.”

For his part, ElBaradei acknowledged publicly today that the plan is not perfect but said it was a good effort worth pursuing.

“Some people have mentioned that this is sequential [and] it should have been simultaneous,” he told reporters.  “That is also my view.  It probably would have been good to have it all simultaneous.”

However, “in diplomacy, it takes time and people need to understand we need to use all tools available to us to get results,” ElBaradei said.

“If I can get the agency to resolve all the outstanding issues and move to the present with respect to Iran’s nuclear program in three months, I think that would be an excellent achievement,” he added.

“The key to success is the implementation of the work plan,” he continued.  “I call on Iran, I call on the international community to do their best, to try to help us to find a credible solution through verification, a peaceful resolution.   I don’t think we can afford to fail.”

While diplomats danced delicately around their dispute over the work plan, one Vienna diplomat vigorously defended the agency’s approach in remarks to Global Security Newswire.

Earlier criticism of the plan from Western nations showed “a lack of professionalism,” the diplomat said.

“These guys have never understood” the plan, the diplomat added.  “They read it too literally.”

Such a reading fails “to capture everything in the negotiating history” in which Iranian officials understood that the agency would be allowed to pursue new avenues of investigation if its inspectors made new discoveries, the diplomat said.

Although the language of the plan appears to limit the scope and quantity of questions the agency can ask, Iran understands that it would need to provide additional information if new questions are created by the agency’s investigation.

“If there is a new issue that comes up, we’ll be free to pursue it,” the diplomat said.

Iranian Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh concurred today.

“We are determined to clarify all issues, to remove ambiguities,” he said in a press conference.  “Therefore if there are questions, we would be happy and well-prepared to answer the questions.”

The language of the plan was necessary, however, to give Iran a sense that it would someday emerge from the microscope, according to the diplomat.

“We can’t be in a position to be chasing everything with no end,” the diplomat said.  “There has to be balancing point, you can’t leave the door open.”

The work plan, in any case, only addresses Iran’s past nuclear activities, and Tehran will need to cooperate fully with the agency into the future as inspectors review current operations.

The Western response, the diplomat said, was spurred by its frustration that Iran has ignored the Security Council sanctions imposed to pressure Tehran to suspend its nuclear activities.

“The Western strategy of suspension has failed,” the diplomat said.

Meanwhile in Moscow, Iran’s foreign minister was scheduled to meet today with Russia’s nuclear energy agency head to discuss plans to complete a Russian-built nuclear plant in Iran, Reuters reported.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was due to meet Russian nuclear chief Sergei Kiriyenko to try to break an impasse that has persisted despite recent reports to the contrary (see GSN, Sept. 7).

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