France Cools Nuclear Rhetoric on Iran

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner yesterday re-emphasized his country’s commitment to diplomacy as a means of pressuring Iran to halt its controversial nuclear activities, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Sept. 17).

Kouchner was rebuked by Iran and criticized by some French officials for discussing the possibility of war with Iran in an attempt to step up international pressure on the country over its nuclear program.

“The worst situation would be war,” Kouchner said.  “And to avoid the worst, the French position is very clear:  negotiate, negotiate, negotiate, and work with our European friends on credible sanctions.”

Kouchner said that no military action is being planned against Iran and he did not expect the United States to take military action against the country during the term of U.S. President George W. Bush.

The Sarkozy administration is pressing European nations to impose sanctions on Iran separate from a third round of U.N. Security Council penalties that could take several months to pass.

“These would be European sanctions that each country, individually, must put in place with its own banking, commercial and industrial system,” Kouchner said.  “The English and the Germans are interested in talking about this.”

High-level officials have said the French foreign intelligence service believes that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon earlier than dates anticipated by U.S. intelligence officials.  The United States estimates that Iran’s nuclear program could yield a bomb between 2010 and 2015 (Bennhold/Sciolino, New York Times, Sept. 17).

Following a Russian warning that war with Iran would prove “catastrophic,” Kouchner during a meeting today was expected to urge Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to adopt a harder line against Tehran, Agence France Presse reported.

Their meeting came before a planned session Friday of the U.N. Security Council, which is expected to examine proposed sanctions against Iran for its refusal to halt enriching uranium, which could produce a nuclear bomb ingredient.

Anticipating a possible attack on Iran, Moscow has prepared plans to evacuate Russian nuclear specialists from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant now under construction, said Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov.

Losyukov said that military intervention in Iran would “worsen the situation in the Middle East” and “bring a very negative reaction from the Muslim world.”

“Of course I cannot know what is being thought in the United States,” he said, adding that an attack on Iran “would be a big diplomatic and political error.”

U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei yesterday discouraged countries from taking premature military action in the nuclear standoff with Iran, but he added that French statements about the likelihood of military conflict were “a lot of hype” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Sept. 18).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad discounted Kouchner’s threat of war if Tehran pursues nuclear weapons development, the Associated Press reported.

“We do not take these threats seriously,” Ahmadinejad said.  “Media speculations are different from real words and we do not take these remarks seriously.”

Iran has denied that it intends to develop a nuclear weapon (Associated Press I/Google News, Sept. 18).

Meanwhile, retired U.S. Army Gen. John Abizaid said yesterday the United States could prevent Iran from using nuclear weapons should every effort fail to prevent Iran from acquiring them, the Associated Press reported.

“Iran is not a suicide nation,” said Abizaid, who led U.S. Central Command for almost four years.  “I mean, they may have some people in charge that don't appear to be rational, but I doubt that the Iranians intend to attack us with a nuclear weapon.”

He said that Iranian officials acknowledge U.S. military superiority, and they would not risk attacking the United States with a nuclear weapon when such a move could provoke a catastrophic retaliation.

“I believe that we have the power to deter Iran, should it become nuclear,” Abizaid said.

“There are ways to live with a nuclear Iran,” he said.  “Let's face it, we lived with a nuclear Soviet Union, we've lived with a nuclear China, and we're living with (other) nuclear powers as well” (Associated Press II/International Herald Tribune, Sept. 17).

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