Indian Nuclear Negotiation “On Track,” Analyst Says

A senior Indian nuclear analyst said yesterday that the government in New Delhi appears to be making progress in enacting a pending civilian nuclear trade agreement with the United States in spite of strong opposition from Indian communists, the Hindustan Times reported (see GSN, Sept. 13).

“I think the deal is on track,” said K. Subrahmanyam, who is leading a task force tracking Indian nuclear policy.  “I do not think the deal is off-track.  I think the government is proceeding broadly according to schedule.”

He made the comments as Anil Kakodkar, chairman of India’s Atomic Energy Commission, represented India at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Kakodkar did not say whether he planned to address the agency about a safeguards agreement that India must negotiate with IAEA officials before New Delhi can seek approval for the deal from the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group.

“The safeguards agreement will not be a very complicated affair,” said Subrahmanyam, noting that standard agreements exist for nations with and without nuclear weapons stockpiles.

“The India-specific agreement would be a hybrid agreement which will blend elements from both,” he said.

After the IAEA safeguards agreement is settled, U.S. officials are expected to lobby the Nuclear Suppliers Group to offer a special exception for providing nuclear fuel to India, which is not a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

U.S. lawmakers must approve the deal by an “up-down” vote before the end of February 2008, after which the country would be focused heavily on the 2008 presidential election, the Times said.

Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee is now visiting South Korea, a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, in an attempt to raise support for the resumption of Indian nuclear trade after a three-decade pause.  South Korea has not supported the U.S.-India agreement as it has contended with North Korea’s nuclear program.  Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon is making a similar pitch to China.

Subrahmanyam said he expects the administration of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to continue pushing to put the nuclear deal into operation.

“Mukherjee and Menon are on a mission to persuade these two countries about the deal in the [Nuclear Suppliers Group],” he said.  “All those things (canvassing for support) will not be done unless India meant business on going ahead with the deal” (Nilova Chaudhury, Hindustan Times, Sept. 17).

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