Iran to Increase Cooperation With Inspectors

Iran last week said it would cooperate partially with the U.N. nuclear watchdog as the agency investigates U.S. claims that Tehran is conducting covert uranium processing activities to produce material for a nuclear weapons program, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Aug. 24).

As a “sign of good will and cooperation with the [International Atomic Energy Agency] … Iran will review” documentation provided by the agency on the alleged secret program “and inform the agency of its assessment,” said a memorandum produced by Iranian and IAEA officials.

Tehran also provided a timetable for disclosing other details that IAEA officials have requested regarding the country’s more than two decades of secret nuclear activity (George Jahn, Associated Press/Washington Post, Aug. 28).

Meanwhile, IAEA officials said in a joint statement that Iran has resolved questions surrounding its previous experiments using plutonium, Reuters reported on Aug. 27.

The findings represent the first major issue resolved by the agency’s four-year investigation into Iran’s nuclear activities.

Iran and IAEA officials agreed Aug. 21 to a broader plan for clarifying Iranian nuclear ambitions following suspicions that Tehran’s civilian nuclear energy program could be serving as a cover for nuclear weapons development.  The plan also aims to allow IAEA inspectors to more easily access Iran’s underground uranium enrichment plant, which would manufacture nuclear fuel.

The plan said that information given to IAEA officials regarding Tehran’s plutonium program was consistent with the findings of IAEA inspectors.

“Thus this matter is resolved. This will be communicated officially by the agency to Iran through a letter,” the plan said, giving no description of how officials resolved the suspicions.

By November, Iran is expected to describe its efforts to construct P-2 centrifuges, which would enrich uranium two to three times faster than the country’s existing P-1 centrifuges. The current centrifuges are also susceptible to breakdowns.

Western powers are also seeking evidence of secret connections between Iranian uranium processing and activities such as the testing of powerful explosives and missile warhead design.  In a gesture of “goodwill and cooperation,”  Officials in Tehran said they would examine evidence previously rejected as “politically and baseless accusations.”

The nuclear watchdog called the plan a “milestone” for Iranian nuclear transparency, but a Western diplomat said the plan did not commit Iran to find access to “people, places and documentation” needed for questions to be fully resolved (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, Aug. 27).

Iran’s recent cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog could hinder U.S. efforts to impose a new round of sanctions against the country, the Washington Post reported Friday.

In a report to the agency’s governing board, agency officials said that although Iran continues to enrich uranium in defiance of two U.N. Security Council resolutions, the enrichment facility has produced “well below the expected quantity for a facility of this design.”

The report said Iran took “a significant step forward” when it agreed to the new plan for resolving questions surrounding its nuclear agenda, while U.N. officials said Tehran has slowed its construction of its Arak plutonium reactor.

“For the first time in a couple of years, we have been able to agree with the Iranians on a working arrangement, on how to resolve the outstanding issues,” said IAEA safeguards head Olli Heinonen.  “What Iran is now facing is actually a litmus test” on its willingness to meet its new obligations in spite of its past violations of Security Council resolutions, Heinonen said.

An IAEA conclusion that Iran is not running a clandestine nuclear weapons development program could raise new questions about U.S. intelligence in the Middle East.  The United States justified its invasion of Iraq on its contention that Saddam Hussein’s government was secretly pursuing nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, but U.S. forces found no evidence that such programs existed.

Analysts following Iran’s nuclear program noted that Tehran’s uranium enrichment program was falling far short of its stated goals for installing new centrifuges and enriching uranium in existing centrifuges.

According to IAEA findings, Iran has been producing about 31 pounds of low-enriched uranium each month although it had projected a monthly output of 200 pounds, said an analysis released Thursday by the Institute for Science and International Security.  Low-enriched uranium is used for power production and cannot be used in weapons without additional processing.

The low production suggests that Iran has faced technical difficulties or has deliberately slowed its production to “forestall negative reactions that would lend support for further sanctions,” said the institute’s report.

Iranian nuclear negotiator Mohammad Saeedi lauded the IAEA report in state media, stating that it “put an end to all U.S. baseless accusations” about the nuclear program and “once again endorsed the authenticity of the statements of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Critics of Iran noted that the country continues to refuse to halt its uranium enrichment efforts in compliance with Security Council demands.

“For the most part, Iran has made only promises,” U.S. Ambassador to the IAEA Gregory Schulte said in a statement Thursday.  The report “indicates that Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities, which is a violation of U.S. Security Council resolutions.”  Schulte said Iran must halt its uranium enrichment “for the international community to gain confidence that Iran's nuclear activities are exclusively for peaceful purposes.”

The IAEA report is expected to be reviewed by the agency’s 35-nation governing board at its meeting beginning Sept. 10, the Post reported (Anderson/Warrick, Washington Post, Aug. 31).

The IAEA report cast light on an expanding rift between the U.N. nuclear watchdog and U.S. officials and their allies, the New York Times reported Friday.

“This is the first time Iran is ready to discuss all the outstanding issues which triggered the crisis in confidence,” said IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

ElBaradei said he would welcome a delay in the U.S.-led drive for a new round of sanctions against Iran. 

“I’m clear at this stage you need to give Iran a chance to prove its stated goodwill.  Sanctions alone, I know for sure, are not going to lead to a durable solution,” he said.

“There is no partial credit here,” said State Department spokesman Tom Casey.  “Iran has refused to comply with its international obligations, and as a result of that the international community is going to continue to ratchet up the pressure.”

David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, used IAEA figures to estimate that Iranian centrifuges were operating at as little as 10 percent of their total capacity.

“That’s very low — and we don’t know why,” he said.

ElBaradei said he suspected that Iranian officials chose to deliberately slow uranium enrichment at Iran’s Natanz facility.

“They could have expanded much faster,” he said.  “Some say it’s for technical reasons.  My gut feeling is that it’s primarily for political reasons” (Sciolino/Broad, New York Times, Aug. 31).

Iran could miss its last chance to resolve its nuclear standoff with the international community if it fails to do so by the end of the year, ElBaradei said.

“By November, or December at the latest, we should be able to state whether the Iranians are keeping their promises. If they don't keep them, Tehran will have passed by an important chance, perhaps the last,” ElBaradei told Der Spiegel.

ElBaradei added that nations should “encourage” Iran to cooperate with IAEA inspections (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, Sept. 3).

Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said yesterday that Iran’s nuclear program reached a critical milestone by completing the installation of 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges, the London Telegraph reported.

The uranium enrichment process could yield a possible nuclear bomb ingredient.

“We have more than 3,000 centrifuges working and every week a new set is installed,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech.

He said that “world powers” were disappointed that Iran has refused “retreat” in pursuing its nuclear ambitions.

Analysts have said that even if Iran has installed as many centrifuges as it claims, running them successfully is difficult and it could take operators one or two years to master the necessary procedures (David Blair, London Telegraph, Sept. 4).

U.S. President George W. Bush said on Aug. 28 that a “nuclear holocaust” could unfold in the Middle East if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Agence France-Presse reported.

“Iran's actions threaten the security of nations everywhere, and the United States is rallying friends and allies to isolate Iran's regime, to impose economic sanctions,” Bush said.

“We will confront this danger before it is too late,” he said.

“Iran’s active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear weapons threatens to put a region already known for instability and violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust,” Bush said.

Shortly before Bush’s speech, Ahmadinejad discounted French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s warning of a possible military strike on Iran.

“There is no … possibility of such an attack by the United States,” Ahmadinejad said.

“Even if they take such a decision, they cannot implement it,” he said.

Sarkozy said in an Aug. 27 foreign policy address that continued nuclear negotiations with Iran together with the threat of sanctions were the only means to avoid “a catastrophic alternative:  an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran.”

“[Sarkozy] only recently came to power and wants to find a place for himself in the world,” Ahmadinejad said.  “He is still inexperienced, meaning that maybe he does not really understand the meaning of his own words” (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, Aug. 29).

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