North Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Kye Gwan shakes hands with his U.S. counterpart Christopher Hill following talks Friday in Beijing (Andy Wong/Getty Images). Tentative Deal Set on Closing North Korea Nuclear Program Envoys to the six-party talks yesterday reached a tentative agreement on a plan to disable North Korea’s nuclear program before the end of 2007, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 28). The document “lays out an entire roadmap until the end of the year,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said following four days of talks in Beijing.  “We’re into the nuts and bolts now of implementing denuclearization.” The talks recessed for at least two days while negotiators from China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas communicated with their governments.  Hill was returning to Washington...Full Story

U.N. Powers Delay Iran Sanctions Until November Six major powers said Friday that they would wait until November to place new U.N. Security Council sanctions on Iran to give the country a chance to share details of its nuclear history and halt controversial elements of its nuclear program, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 28)...Full Story

Review Panel Says RRW Certification Not “Assured” By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — An independent scientific review has cast doubt on U.S. plans to design and deploy a next-generation nuclear warhead without underground nuclear testing (see GSN, Aug. 2)...Full Story

	Monday, October 1, 2007

Tentative Deal Set on Closing North Korea Nuclear Program Envoys to the six-party talks yesterday reached a tentative agreement on a plan to disable North Korea’s nuclear program before the end of 2007, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 28). The document “lays out an entire roadmap until the end of the year,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said following four days of talks in Beijing.  “We’re into the nuts and bolts now of implementing denuclearization.” The talks recessed for at least two days while negotiators from China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas communicated with their governments.  Hill was returning to Washington. Pyongyang agreed in February to end its nuclear program, in exchange for 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil or related aid, along with diplomatic and security concessions from the other negotiating nations.  Diplomats have been pressing North Korea to fully declare and disable its nuclear complex after it shut down operations at the Yongbyon site. The draft plan sets schedules for North Korea and the other nations participating in the talks, according to South Korean negotiator Chun Young-woo. North Korea reaffirmed its pledge to carry out declaration and disablement by Dec. 31, with the understanding that it would not receive the full complement of aid in that time period, Chun said.  Seoul anticipates delivering roughly one-third of its pledged economic and energy assistance by the end of the year, he said. Washington said again it would take North Korea off the list of state sponsors of terrorism, but the draft agreement includes no date for that to occur, Chun said. “Many countries exerted the spirit of compromise.  In particular, North Korea made many concessions,” he said. It was not immediately known if envoys had resolved some thorny issues, including the definition of disabling.  The United States is seeking to ensure that it would take at least one year to resume operations at a nuclear facility, AP reported (Anita Chang, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 30). The agreement is expected to be made public after negotiators report to their capitals, Bloomberg reported.  Chun said he believes it will be approved. “If that doesn’t happen there is a problem of renegotiations and I hope that it does not come to that,” he said.  “If there is no approval, then there is no agreement.  Still, I don’t feel we need to worry about that kind of situation at this point” (Koo/Cheng, Bloomberg, Sept. 30). U.S. President George W. Bush on Friday signed off on shipping 50,000 tons of fuel oil to North Korea at a cost of $25 million, Agence France-Presse reported. “This action is in accordance with the principle of ‘action for action’ under the six-party talks and demonstrates the U.S. commitment to the denuclearization of the D.P.R.K.,” said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe. South Korea shipped 50,000 tons to its neighbor in July, followed this month by China.  Russia plans to provide another shipment, though Japan said the issue of its citizens abducted by North Korea must be resolved before it follows suit (Laurent Lozano, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 28). Back to top       U.N. Powers Delay Iran Sanctions Until November Six major powers said Friday that they would wait until November to place new U.N. Security Council sanctions on Iran to give the country a chance to share details of its nuclear history and halt controversial elements of its nuclear program, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 28). The Security Council intends to finalize and vote on a new sanctions resolution against Iran next month unless reports from the EU foreign policy chief and head of the International Atomic Energy Agency “show a positive outcome of their efforts,” said a joint statement issued by China, France, Germany, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom.  “We call upon Iran … to produce tangible results rapidly and effectively by clarifying all outstanding issues and concerns on Iran’s nuclear program including topics which could have the military nuclear dimension,” the statement said. “Full transparency and cooperation by Iran with the [International Atomic Energy Agency] is essential in order to address outstanding concerns,” it said (Lederer/Lee, Associated Press/Google News, Sept. 28). IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei is expected to report on progress in completing a “work plan” developed by Iran and the agency for Tehran to gradually disclose information about its nuclear program, the Financial Times reported. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana’s report is expected to address the Security Council demand that Iran halt its uranium enrichment efforts, which could yield a nuclear weapon ingredient. Top foreign officials for the six nations also asked Solana on Friday to meet with top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani “to lay the foundation for future negotiations.”  Occasional meetings between Solana and Larijani over the past two years have not yet yielded any significant breakthroughs in the nuclear standoff (Daniel Dombey, Financial Times I, Sept. 28). Larijani said yesterday that the advanced level of Iran’s nuclear program made suspending uranium enrichment out of the question. “From a technical point of view we have reached a stage that no one can take away what we've achieved.  This status cannot be ignored.  I'm surprised to hear suspension is still being talked about,” he said (Khalaf/Bozorgmehr, Financial Times II, Oct. 1). Iran intends to maintain cooperation with IAEA inspectors, Reuters reported Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini as saying yesterday. “The process that certain radical countries have followed so far is to disrupt the positive climate that has been put in place through the cooperation of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the agency,” he said. “That has not helped them, therefore they have been forced to be patient,” he said (Reuters, Sept. 30). Meanwhile, this week’s edition of the New Yorker reported that the office of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney led a Bush administration effort over the summer to revise plans for U.S. air attacks against Iran to emphasize “surgical” strikes on Revolutionary Guard sites over known and suspected nuclear facilities and other military targets. Three primary developments have led the Bush administration to reorient its rationale for an attack on Iran from counterproliferation to counterterrorism, the magazine reported. The White House believes that the U.S. public has not been persuaded that Iran is an immediate atomic danger, meaning the public support does not exist for a significant bombing effort.  The Bush administration also has quietly accepted intelligence assessments that it would take Iran five years to produce a nuclear weapon.  Finally, Washington and the Middle East are increasingly viewing Iran as coming out ahead geopolitically in the war in Iran (Seymour Hersh, New Yorker, Oct. 8). However, the Bush administration has ordered U.S. diplomats to catalog Iranian violations of international law, possibly with an eye toward justifying attacks against Iranian nuclear sites, the London Telegraph reported. U.S. diplomatic personnel at the United Nations were asked in September to start “searching for things that Iran has done wrong.” “There are people more beholden to the Cheney side who have people searching for things that Iran has done wrong — making the case.  They've been given instructions to build a dossier.  They’ve been scouring around for stuff over the last couple of weeks,” said one U.S. diplomat. A Newsweek report last week said that David Wurmser, former Middle East adviser to Cheney, had told other neoconservatives that the vice president had looked at asking Israel to conduct limited missile attacks on Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility.  That could have set off an Iranian retaliation that could have given the United States a reason to conduct additional military action, according to the newspaper. Prominent, neoconservative Norman Podhoretz lobbied for an attack on Iranian nuclear plants during a 45-minute meeting President George W. Bush.  He said that he believed that “Bush is going to hit” Iran before the end of his term in power (Tim Shipman, London Telegraph I, Oct. 1). The U.S. Air Force has been working with its counterparts in Middle Eastern nations to ensure they could work together in the event of conflict with Iran, the Telegraph reported. “We need friends and partners with the capabilities to take care of their own security and stability in their regions and, through the relationship, the inter-operability and the will to join us in coalitions when appropriate,” said Air Force Deputy Undersecretary Bruce Lemkin (Tim Shipman, London Telegraph II, Oct. 1). Back to top       Review Panel Says RRW Certification Not “Assured” By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — An independent scientific review has cast doubt on U.S. plans to design and deploy a next-generation nuclear warhead without underground nuclear testing (see GSN, Aug. 2). Released Friday in an unclassified form, a report from the JASON group, a handful of scientists often requested by the government to provide advice on nuclear weapons issues, indicated that assuring a warhead is reliable absent explosive testing “is not yet assured.” “The certification plan presented needs further development,” the scientific advisory panel found. The Bush administration has argued that weapons developed under the Reliable Replacement Warhead program would be easier to produce and maintain than the aging Cold War-era arsenal.  It has pledged to doubtful lawmakers that the warheads would not require underground nuclear testing before being “certified” as ready for the U.S. arsenal.  The White House hopes to put the design, based on work carried out at both Lawrence Livermore and Sandia national laboratories, into production as soon as 2012.  A more “reliable” design, officials have said, could lead to a reduction in U.S. stockpiles, maintained in part as a hedge against the failure of any one weapons system. The proposed warhead could also reduce the risk that the United States would have to return to underground nuclear testing to ensure that the current warheads remain viable, Energy Department officials contend. The United States has signed but not ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.  It has, however, observed a moratorium on nuclear testing since 1992. The design selected earlier this year to become the first RRW warhead — later called WR1 — is based on an explosive package that was tested when the United States still carried out nuclear blasts.  Officials argue that because the design would be a descendant of one for which there is live testing data, certification would be possible. The JASON group suggested that computer modeling based on earlier nuclear tests might have limitations.  “A concern remains,” members wrote, “that even though codes can reproduce the performance of previously tested weapons, it is not yet possible to quantify how well excursions from a tested design can be modeled and predicted.” Warhead certification would require “new experiments, enhanced computational tools and improved scientific understanding of the connection of results from such experiments and simulations to the existing test data,” according to the group, whose review was requested by Congress. It also noted that “substantial work remains” on the understanding of additional safety measure planned for the new design. In addition, the scientists concluded that in the absence of explosive testing, certification challenges must be met with strong peer reviews, which would have to “play a larger role” than currently proscribed by Energy Department and national laboratory plans. The group called for a “broadly constituted” peer review team to pose formal experimental or computational questions to the warhead designers. Representatives Peter Visclosky (D-Ind.) and David Hobson (R-Ohio), chairman and ranking member of the House Appropriations Energy and Water Subcommittee, called for the questions raised in the JASON report to be addressed before the United States pushes forward with the RRW plan. The subcommittee sets funding in the House for the nation’s nuclear weapons complex, and both representatives have expressed serious doubts about the Bush administration initiative.  In May, their panel’s funding bill completely zeroed out the president’s fiscal 2008 $88 million request for the program. Instead, Visclosky called for a new comprehensive nuclear defense strategy as well as a stockpile plan to guide the transformation and downsizing of the U.S. arsenal that has roughly 10,000 deployed and reserve weapons (see GSN, May 24). “The JASON panel has extended the set of policy and strategic questions raised in the House Energy and Water Development appropriations bill and report, and the committee is grateful for their insight,” Visclosky and Hobson wrote in a joint statement on the response.  “Only when the Department of Energy has completed the work recommended by the JASON report can the nation appropriately consider what role an RRW might play as a 21st century nuclear deterrent.” Within the Energy Department, the National Nuclear Security Administration took the report as a sign it was proceeding with “appropriate scientific principles.” “I am pleased that the JASON panel feels that we are on the right track,” said NNSA Administrator Thomas D’Agostino in a statement.  “NNSA has developed a tremendous amount of scientific and engineering expertise over the years to maintain the reliability of the stockpile without underground nuclear tests.   We are applying this knowledge to developing a replacement warhead that will be more secure, safer, more reliable and more efficient to maintain, and we embrace the ideas of continued study and peer review.” The recommendations will be “fully considered,” the National Nuclear Security Administration said in a press release. Meanwhile, the Energy Department today is expected to announce that it has dismantled three times as many nuclear warheads as originally planned in the past fiscal year, which ended yesterday, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, June 7). Back to top       U.S., Kyrgyzstan to Work Against Nuclear Smuggling The United States and Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement yesterday to cooperate in efforts to track and interdict nuclear materials being smuggled through the Asian nation, the U.S. State Department said (see GSN, Jan. 31, 2006). The countries agreed on 20 measures to increase Kyrgyzstan’s ability to effectively respond to nuclear smuggling efforts.  While Bishkek pledged to take what steps it can, Washington plans to look within the U.S. government and international community for sources of assistance Kyrgyzstan requires in carrying out the measures.  Assistance would be coordinated with aid provided to Kyrgyzstan by other U.S. and non-U.S. assistance programs. This is the fourth agreement reached by the U.S. Nuclear Smuggling Outreach Initiative, following similar deals with Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Georgia.  The program aims to reach agreements with roughly 20 more countries considered at high risk of hosting nuclear smuggling efforts. So far, the United States has received assistance from eight countries and three international organizations to provide assistance in implementing the agreements (U.S. State Department release, Sept. 30). Back to top       U.S. Issues Final Notice on Los Alamos Security Lapse The U.S. Energy Department issued a final notice Friday of its intent to fine the University of California $3 million for security lapses last year, when officials found classified nuclear weapons documents at the home of a Los Alamos National Laboratory subcontractor worker (see GSN, July 16). The department’s National Nuclear Security Administration said the university can accept the fine or contest it within 30 days (National Nuclear Security Administration release I, Sept. 28). In accompanying documents, the administration castigated the university for its failure to apply a wide-ranging set of security rules that might have prevented the employee from leaving the laboratory with the classified information last year (National Nuclear Security Administration release II, Sept. 28). The university, which was the laboratory’s sole manager until mid-2006 (see GSN, June 1, 2006), is reviewing the notice, said spokesman Chris Harrington.  University officials have argued that the subcontractor, not the university, should be held responsible and that the university was not managing the site when the security lapse was detected in October 2006, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Energy Department officials, however, rejected those arguments. The university “may not escape liability for those deficiencies because an individual subcontractor employee exploited weaknesses in UC’s security management controls shortly after the university’s tenure ended,” says the second NNSA release (Sue Major Holmes, Associated Press/Santa Fe New Mexican, Sept. 29). Back to top       Indian Communists Stand Firm on U.S. Nuclear Deal Leaders of India’s largest communist party today gave no indication that they are prepared to budge from their opposition to the pending U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear trade agreement, Reuters reported today, (see GSN, Sept. 24). The communists have maintained that the agreement would undermine Indian sovereignty and foreign policy independence, and they have vowed to withdraw support from the Singh administration if it pushes forward with the deal (see GSN, Sept 13). If Prime Minister Manmohan Singh loses the communists’ support, he could be forced to call early elections next year before his term expires. Leaders of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) plotted their political strategy over the weekend in India’s eastern city of Kolkata.  They are expected to announce a new party resolution today. “We have decided not to compromise on the nuclear deal, but will wait and see if the Congress (party) can get concessions on the deal before taking the final call,” said Jyoti Basu, a senior leader in the party. A panel formed to address communist objections to the deal is scheduled to meet again in October. “Let us see what comes out of it before we talk on the lines of withdrawing support,” Basu said (Reuters, Oct. 1). Back to top       Russia Plans Floating Nuclear Plant for 2011 Russia plans to commission its first floating nuclear power plant in 2011, a regional leader said last week (see GSN, July 17). “The construction of the first such power unit with 70 [megawatt] capacity was started this year, and should be completed by 2010,” said Nikolai Kiselyov, governor of Russia’s Arkhangelsk region.  “The plant is most likely to operate in [the Arctic port city of] Severodvinsk.  Its launch is planned for 2011.” Six additional floating reactors are planned to be finished in the next 10 years, to meet an expected international demand for power, RIA Novosti reported (RIA Novosti, Sept. 27). Back to top

University Prepares New Disease Research Center Construction began last week at George Mason University in Virginia on a new center to research infectious diseases that could spread naturally or through acts of biological terrorism, the Manassas Journal Messenger reported (see GSN, Sept. 9, 2005). Operations at the 53,000-square-foot Biomedical Research Laboratory in Prince William County are expected to begin in fall 2009.  The facility is intended to include a Biosafety Level 3 laboratory and would be among 13 biocontainment laboratories being built in the United States.  It would be used for animal studies of vaccines and other countermeasures against airborne disease particles, particularly anthrax, plague and other potential bioterrorism threats. “The events of 2001 unfortunately provided a stark emphasis to the vulnerability that we as a nation and as a global community face to deliberate threats in multiple forms,” Michael Kurilla of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said at a groundbreaking ceremony Thursday.  “Subsequently in 2003 with SARS and in 2005 with avian flu, we have seen how the limitations in our public health preparedness further emphasize vulnerability that needed to be addressed.” The federal agency provided $25 million for the facility, which was matched by $15.3 million from the university and another $2.5 million in state funds for land acquisition (Elisa Glushefski, Manassas Journal Messenger, Sept. 28). Meanwhile, the Sandia National Laboratories/California is developing a portable device that would allow emergency responders to quickly determine if a person has been exposed to a biological agent, Inside Bay Area reported Saturday. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases provided $3.2 million for the project to develop a 7-pound sensor that would test a small amount of blood for toxins such as botulinum or shiga.  Results when screening even for multiple toxins could be ready on-site in 10 minutes, compared to the hours now needed for testing at a laboratory.  That would allow responders to more quickly determine the appropriate medical care needed for a patient. “National security used to be defending against nuclear weapons and things like that,” said chemical engineer Anup Singh.  “Now the scenario has changed a lot and that means defending against chemical and biological terrorism.” “Our goal is to have this available wherever responders are going to be,” he added. The laboratory expects to submit the device for approval by the Food and Drug Administration within five years (Betsy Mason, Inside Bay Area, Sept. 29). Back to top

Dried Mustard Found at Deseret Chemical Depot A small amount of dried mustard agent was found Friday on two 155 mm projectiles stored at the Deseret Chemical Depot in Utah, the U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency said (see GSN, Sept. 4). A passive filter system prevented mustard gas from escaping outside of the storage igloo.  Workers in protective gear sealed the leaking munitions in airtight containers for continued storage (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Sept. 28). Back to top

U.S. Missile Interceptor Passes Test A missile interceptor launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California on Friday destroyed a target projectile flying from Alaska in a test of the U.S. missile defense system, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, June 28). Launched from an underground silo just after 1:15 p.m., the ICBM interceptor eliminated the mock enemy missile that took off from the Kodiak Launch Complex in Alaska, said the Boeing Co., the main contractor for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense System. Early evaluations of the test data indicated that the interceptor missile’s rocket motor system and exoatmospheric kill vehicle functioned as expected (Associated Press/Google News, Sept. 29). The interceptor destroyed the missile by colliding with it, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said. The target missile was also successfully tracked by the SPY-1 radar carried by an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense ship, the Sea-Based X-Band radar and the Upgraded Early Warning Radar at Beale Air Force Base in California, the agency said. The land and sea-based radars tested were components of an extensive ballistic missile detection framework being developed by the agency (U.S.  Missile Defense Agency release, Sept 28). Over the next five years, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency is expected to spend $49 billion on developing and deploying the ballistic missile defense program (Associated Press). Back to top       Czechs Divided Over Missile Defense Radar The U.S. plan to deploy a missile defense radar in the Czech Republic has become a divisive topic in the European nation, where the government strongly supports the proposal in the face of a less supportive citizenry, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Sept. 28). “I have not experienced a topic that would divide the Czech population as much as this radar,” said lawmaker Josef Rihak, coordinator of the League of Mayors Against the Radar.  “I think my son is the biggest ally of the radar in the entire Czech Republic.” Rihak’s 18-year-old son, also named Josef, said “I want American people in our country.” While there is historically strong support for the United States in the Czech Republic, a recent poll found that 49 percent of Czech citizens opposed the radar while only 22 percent backed the installation. Czechs fear that their nation could become a target by housing the radar base.  Russia’s missile chief has threatened to aim weapons at Eastern European nations participating in the missile defense program, the Times reported. “I’ve never been a coward, but that feeling when the Russians tell you they’ll be aiming their missiles at you, of course we are afraid of that,” said Rihak, who serves in Parliament and is mayor of Pribram. Doubts about U.S. credibility, particularly in the wake of incorrect intelligence on prewar Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, are another barrier to those promoting the radar base. The government is conducting a widespread public relations campaign and organizing a series of town hall meetings on the base.  Residents of some towns have yelled or thrown eggs at the government speakers. The Bush administration made a strategic error by planning bilateral agreements with the Czech Republic and Poland, which would house 10 missile interceptors, rather than working with NATO, said Ronald Asmus, director of the Trans-Atlantic Center of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.  It also assumed its initiative would receive automatic support in the two U.S. allies, rather than offering details of the technology and explaining why it was needed. “I remember sitting in my office, having just left the Pentagon, and being startled when I saw the announcement and saying to myself, ‘They didn’t do a rollout,’” said James Townsend Jr., former European relations chief at the Defense Department. Czech lawmakers are expected to consider the radar plan no earlier than January.  The government is seeking support from 102 of 200 members of the lower chamber of Parliament, but that backing remains in question (Nicholas Kulish, New York Times, Oct. 1). Back to top       Air-Launched Missile Interceptor to See Spring Test Defense contractor Lockheed Martin plans to test-launch a ballistic missile interceptor from a fighter aircraft in the spring, Inside the Air Force reported Friday (see GSN, Jan. 11). The Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptor has so far served as a ground-launched system designed to shoot down ballistic missiles as they near their targets.  The air-launched plan calls for the interceptor to be fired by an F-15 fighter. “We are integrating two battle-proven systems to create a much more effective system,” Lockheed Martin program manager Glenn Haskins told a group last week.  “We have matured the concept of operations for launching the PAC-3 from tactical fighter aircraft.” The company has worked on the project for three years and in January received $3 million in continued Missile Defense Agency funding, according to Inside the Air Force. Should the delivery method prove successful, the Air Force could deploy the interceptors by arming routine patrol flights or by scrambling aircraft when needed to crisis points, a Lockheed Martin official said (Marina Malenic, Inside the Air Force, Sept. 28). Back to top

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