U.S. President George W. Bush warned yesterday that Iran could trigger “World War III” (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images). Nuclear-Armed Iran Could Trigger World War, Bush Says U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that Iran could trigger “World War III” if it developed nuclear weapons, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Oct. 17). “We got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel,” Bush said during a press conference, referring to a statement by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Israel “will disappear soon” (Sheryl Stolberg, New York Times, Oct. 18)...Full Story

U.S. Team Leaves North Korea An eight-person team of U.S. experts returned to China today after spending a week conducting talks in North Korea on disabling the Stalinist regime’s nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Oct. 17)...Full Story

Russian General Defends INF Treaty A senior Russian military official warned yesterday that scrapping a bilateral arms control agreement banning medium-range missiles could promote proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, RIA Novosti reported (see GSN, Oct. 12)...Full Story

	Thursday, October 18, 2007

Senate Panel Passes Terror Insurance Bill By Bill Swindell CongressDaily WASHINGTON — The U.S. Senate Banking Committee yesterday approved legislation that would reauthorize the federal government's terrorism risk insurance program, with the added boost of picking up the support of the White House (see GSN, Oct. 16). The panel voted 20-1 for the bill, which would reauthorize the program for seven years.  Unlike a House-passed measure, though, it does not include language that would require carriers to make available coverage for a nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological attack.  Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) said he wants to bring the bill quickly to the Senate floor, perhaps as early as next week.  The program expires at year's end. Dodd's bill picked up key support yesterday from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who wrote to him saying the administration would not oppose the Senate bill — unlike its veto threat issued against the House-passed measure. The administration would like a shorter extension and an increase on carrier retentions, but threw its weight behind the Senate measure as the best deal it could get in a Democratic-controlled chamber and to give it an advantage in conference negotiations against a House bill that would vastly expand the program and reauthorize it for 15 years. "Should the amendments be adopted that move the current [Senate] bill further from our key elements, the president's senior advisors would recommend that he veto the bill," Paulson wrote. Lawmakers will have to sort out many other differences in conference.  The Senate bill draft would keep the program's trigger at its current level of $100 million; the House bill lowered it to $50 million.  The House bill also added group life coverage to the program, a priority for the life insurance industry; the Senate bill did not.  Both bills would expand coverage for domestic acts of terrorism. One issue that could be pivotal in negotiations would be whether to allow the program to decrease deductibles for areas that have previously suffered a terrorist attack.  The issue is important to the New York delegation, which contends such language is needed to aid in rebuilding the World Trade Center site.  The House bill would reset the deductible for such areas down 5 percent from the prior year's insured losses if there is a nuclear, chemical, biological or radiological attack.  The current deductible is 20 percent and would be retained in both bills.  But Dodd did not include the provision in his bill, only authorizing a Government Accountability Office study to determine if businesses in certain high-risk areas such as Manhattan have problems in securing coverage. Senator Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he would push for the House language as the bill advances. "Twenty percent is a huge amount of money that would bankrupt just about any insurance company, including the largest.  So they stay away," Schumer said.  "The reset provision is vital for the rebuilding of ground zero." Senator Wayne Allard (R-Colo.) was the only member to oppose the bill.  Allard said when the program was created in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the insurance industry told him it would be temporary, but he now feels that it has become a permanent fixture even with limited reauthorizations. "Unless they [the insurance industry] are forced to come up with solutions, they will simply continue to rely on the federal government," Allard said. Back to top       Revised Terror Rules to Exclude U.S. Chicken Farms The U.S. Homeland Security Department is expected not to require poultry growers to file risk assessments on propane used to heat chicken houses in new federal regulations aimed at preventing terrorists from acquiring dangerous chemicals, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 21). New regulations proposed in April covered 344 chemicals, adopting specific weight limitations on the amounts businesses could possess without having to file the new risk statements.  Chicken farmers railed against the new rules after learning that the reporting rules applied to businesses holding more than 7,500 pounds of propane. “It's just silly,” said Gary Pilchard, a chicken farmer Pocomoke City, Md., who uses more than 7,500 pounds of propane to heat each of his six chicken houses.  “That's the problem sometimes in Washington.  You get folks sitting behind a desk, that might sound like a lot of propane, but in our world, that's not.” The list contains 105 chemicals that businesses must report owning in any quantity, including hydrogen chloride, which can be used to make a dangerous acidic gas.  Laboratories at Yale University are currently allowed to store between 3 and 5 pounds of hydrogen chloride at one time for use in experiments, but the new regulations would require the school to report any amount of the substance, said Peter Reinhart, the university’s environmental health and safety director. Association of American Universities lobbyist Toby Smith said the list is likely to ultimately contain threshold levels for reporting of all chemicals.  “We do not expect to see any chemical have a threshold of ‘any amount,’” he said (Wyatt/Sullivan, Associated Press/Houston Chronicle, Oct. 17). Back to top

Nuclear-Armed Iran Could Trigger World War, Bush Says U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that Iran could trigger “World War III” if it developed nuclear weapons, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Oct. 17). “We got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel,” Bush said during a press conference, referring to a statement by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Israel “will disappear soon” (Sheryl Stolberg, New York Times, Oct. 18). “So I've told people that, if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon,” he said (Matt Spetalnick, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Oct. 17). Bush said that sanctions and other diplomatic efforts against Iran were intended to force a change in leadership, the Times reported. “The whole strategy is that, you know, at some point in time leaders or responsible folks inside of Iran may get tired of isolation and say, ‘This isn’t worth it,’ and to me it’s worth the effort to keep the pressure on this government,” Bush said. “My intent is to continue to rally the world, to send a focused signal to the Iranian government that we will continue to work to isolate you in the hopes that at some point somebody else shows up and says it’s not worth the isolation,” he said. Bush rejected the idea that he is at odds with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Iran nuclear standoff.  Putin recently said there was “no evidence” of an Iranian nuclear weapons program and this week traveled to Tehran.  Moscow has also been reluctant to consider a third round of U.N. sanctions on Iran. “We don’t agree on a lot of issues,” Bush said.  “We do agree on some:  Iran is one; nuclear proliferation is another” (Stolberg, New York Times). Bush added that he was waiting for details from Putin about his meeting with Ahmadinejad and an undisclosed proposal he reportedly made to Iran’s supreme leader to end the standoff over Iran’s refusal to stop enriching uranium  Agence France-Presse reported. “I'm looking forward to getting President Putin's readout from the meeting,” Bush said. “The thing I'm interested in is whether or not he continues to harbor the same concerns that I do,” he said. “Because when I visited with him, he (said he) understands that it's in the world's interests to make sure that Iran does not have the capacity to make a nuclear weapon.” Hours after Putin completed his visit to Iran, Israel announced that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would today hold what one official called a “last-minute, urgent meeting” with the Russian president in Russia, AFP reported. “The two intend to discuss a series of regional issues, including the peace process with the Palestinians, Iran's threat and attempt to acquire nuclear weapons, and developments in the region,” Olmert's office said (Agence France-Presse/Google News, Oct. 17). Meanwhile, European nations remained split over the timing and severity of proposed EU sanctions against Iran for its refusal to halt its uranium enrichment activities, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Oct. 16). EU foreign ministers held discussions Monday over possible sanctions against Iran independent of a possible future U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution.  Officials said the meeting was “fractious” and “intense,” adding that there was “a bit of blood left on the carpet” from the debate. France and the United Kingdom have pushed for proposed EU sanctions while Italy and Austria have only supported much smaller measures while Germany has sought a middle ground, officials said. The Bush administration has expressed concern that the international community has been losing focus on the U.S. goal of economically isolating Iran.  Russia and China blocked a new Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran last month until the U.N. nuclear watchdog and EU foreign policy chief report on their progress in nuclear negotiations in November. In an effort to continue stepping up pressure on Iran, the United States and Europe announced in September that they would move to impose independent sanctions.  However, a European official close to the talks said the United States has advocated moves to punish Iran for its Al-Quds force’s suspected involvement in Iraq while Europe has not wanted to “confuse” the issue with Iran’s uranium enrichment program. “We want to keep our eyes on the nuclear file,” said another European official. A U.S. official said yesterday that the United States does not seek to “foist” a specific set sanctions agreement on Europe.  “We have not suggested that they emulate exactly what we may or may not do,” he said. A high-level U.S. official in Europe said there is no divide on Iran policy between the United States and Europe.  “They're accepting our premise and just haggling over the details,” he said (Robin Wright, Washington Post, Oct. 18). Back to top       U.S. Team Leaves North Korea An eight-person team of U.S. experts returned to China today after spending a week conducting talks in North Korea on disabling the Stalinist regime’s nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Oct. 17). Delegation chief Sung Kim briefed Chinese and Russian diplomats on the trip, according to a U.S. Embassy official.  He did not speak to reporters. Kim then left to meet with South Korean officials in Seoul, while another team member set off for Japan (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Oct. 18). North Korea agreed earlier this month to fully disclose and disable its nuclear program by the end of 2007, following years of negotiations with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States.  In return it stands to receive energy aid and diplomatic and security benefits. The team led by Kim was expected to establish a program for disabling the three primary facilities at the Yongbyon, the Associated Press reported.  Other teams would put those measures into place (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 18). The State Department announced yesterday that another team of roughly 12 experts is expected to arrive Saturday in Pyongyang, the Yonhap News Agency reported (Yonhap News Agency/Korea.net, Oct. 18). Back to top       Russian General Defends INF Treaty A senior Russian military official warned yesterday that scrapping a bilateral arms control agreement banning medium-range missiles could promote proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, RIA Novosti reported (see GSN, Oct. 12). “Breaking this treaty could lead to irreversible consequences, when a large number of countries will equip missiles with high-precision warheads and more exotic types of WMD,” said Army Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, military chief of staff. “Today, I would not favor a hasty decision to abandon the treaty, although Russia does need missiles of this (intermediate-range) type,” he said, noting Russia’s proposal to expand the treaty to include other nations. Baluyevsky said that independently withdrawing from the treaty would encourage other countries to develop their own intermediate-range ballistic missile arsenals. Under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the United States and the Soviet Union eliminated ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges between 300 and 3,400 miles.  The United States destroyed 846 missiles and the Soviet Union eliminated 1,846 missiles before the deadline of June 1, 1991 (RIA Novosti, Oct. 18). Back to top       Facing Trouble at Home, Indian Leaders Continue to Build International Support for Nuclear Deal Echoing U.S. statements, Indian officials yesterday denied that a bilateral nuclear trade agreement has been mortally wounded by domestic opposition in New Delhi, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Oct. 17). “The deal is not in cold storage and is very much in the offing,” said ruling Congress party spokesman Shakeel Ahmed.  “It is not correct to say that the deal has been put on hold or put on the back burner.” The U.S. and Indian statements followed a Monday phone conversation in which Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told President George W. Bush that “certain difficulties” were preventing Singh from pressing the deal toward implementation. Singh has faced criticism from both communist and nationalist parties who have argued that the nuclear deal would permit excessive U.S. influence over Indian nuclear policies.  The communist opposition has been particularly troublesome because four parties have threatened to force early elections, endangering Singh’s leadership (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 17). While working on domestic concerns, Singh has also been actively working to gain international support the deal.  For the agreement to take effect, the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group would need to modify trade guidelines that currently bar key nuclear sales to nations, such as India, that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or do not allow international monitoring of all their atomic facilities. Singh met yesterday with South African and Brazilian leaders in Pretoria, where the three “agreed to explore approaches to cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy under appropriate International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.” Both Brazil and South Africa are NSG members, and both presidents appeared to express support yesterday for the modifying the group’s rules to allow the Indian deal to proceed, the Times of India reported (Times of India, Oct. 18). Two European nuclear suppliers have also expressed support recently. “I believe that the civil nuclear cooperation between the U.S. and India contains positive elements to answer India’s energy demands in the future,” said Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen.  “The Netherlands, as a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, is prepared to consider the possible request from the U.S. to look at the NSG guidelines with regard to export of nuclear technology in a constructive manner,” he added (Press Trust of India I, Oct. 17). Meanwhile, a French official also backed the idea Monday and said the nation would seek its own bilateral nuclear deal with India. “I am pleased to say that we are closer than ever to achieving this objective and France actively supports the current process aimed at a decision by the Nuclear Suppliers Group which will allow the resumption of international nuclear cooperation with India,” said French Ambassador to India Jerome Bonnafont (Press Trust of India II, Oct. 15). Back to top       Several U.S. Air Force Personnel Face Disciplinary Action for Role in Accidental Nuclear Flight The U.S. Air Force is expected to announce disciplinary action tomorrow against officers and enlisted personnel involved in the accidental loading of nuclear weapons onto a strategic bomber, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Sept. 28). In the Aug. 29 incident, ground crew members at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., mistakenly attached six nuclear-armed cruise missiles to a B-52 bomber that flew to Barksdale Air Force Base, La.  Nobody noticed the presence of nuclear weapons until about 36 hours after they were removed from their Minot bunker, and the weapons received no special security protection during that time. The disciplinary measures, which still require final Defense Department approval, are expected to be the most severe ever meted out in regard to nuclear weapon handling personnel, according to the Post. “The Air Force is getting back to the roots of accountability,” said one senior Air Force official. At least five officers, including a colonel commanding an air wing, would be relieved of command and several enlisted personnel would receive letters of reprimand, the Post reported.  In addition, the Air Force was considering whether to seek criminal charges, such a dereliction of duty or willful disobedience of an order (Ricks/Warrick, Washington Post, Oct. 18). Back to top       Syria Did Not Mention Nuclear Site, U.N. Says A U.N. interpreter’s error was responsible for this week’s confusion over whether a Syrian diplomat acknowledged that Israel had attacked a Syrian nuclear facility last month, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 17). A U.N. summary of the diplomat’s remarks to the General Assembly’s disarmament committee Tuesday indicated he acknowledged that Israel had attacked a Syrian nuclear site, apparently confirming a Saturday New York Times report (see GSN, Oct. 15). Syria’s Foreign Ministry quickly denied that any admission had been made, and the United Nations yesterday agreed. “There was an interpretation error made yesterday when the First Committee was in session,” said U.N. spokesman Farhan Haq.  “There was no use of the word ‘nuclear.’” Listening to the diplomat speak in Arabic, a U.N. interpreter initially provided this English translation: “An entity that is the fourth largest exporter of weapons of mass destruction in the world, an entity that violates other countries' airspace, and that takes action against nuclear facilities, including the attack on 6 July this year on a nuclear facility in my country — that entity has no right to lie, which it has done consistently.” A re-examination of the statement, however, produced this translation yesterday: “The (entity) that is ranking number four among the exporters of lethal weapons in the world; that which violates the airspace of sovereign states and carries out military aggression against them, like what happened on Sept. 6 against my country, such entity with all those characteristics and even more, has no right for its representative to go on lying without shame” (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/London Guardian, Oct. 17). Back to top       Russia Tests ICBM, Announces New Weapon Russia today conducted a test launch of a RS-12M Topol ICBM to evaluate the reliability of the missile’s flight stabilizers over extended ranges, Reuters reported (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2006). The test was conducted under a program to keep the missile in operation for 23 years.  The RS-12M is designed to carry a 550-kiloton nuclear warhead up to 6,215 miles (Chris Baldwin, Reuters/Washington Post, Oct. 18). Following the launch, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his country was developing a “completely new” nuclear weapon and planned to build a new nuclear submarine in 2008, Agence France-Presse reported. "We have grandiose plans and they are absolutely realistic," Putin said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Oct. 18). Back to top

Wyoming Workers Conduct Anthrax Exercise Wyoming emergency response workers responded to a simulated anthrax incident Tuesday at a Cheyenne post office, the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle reported (see GSN, Aug. 17, 2006) A biological hazard alarm sounded at the facility at 4 p.m., after which U.S. Postal Service personnel closed off the site and set up decontamination command centers at both ends of the building. Workers wearing protective gear swept through the facility to retrieve and remove the cartridge from the biological hazard detection system that had detected the anthrax.  They then proceeded to decontaminate themselves and employees at the site. “This was a simulated event that we’ve been planning for months,” said Lisa Gamboa, consumer affairs and claims manager for the Postal Service’s Denver office.  “It was a live drill where all employees were removed and (mock) DNA samples of what was detected was taken to a lab.” Postal Service workers in Wyoming and Colorado began conducting biological attacks response drills after four letters containing live anthrax were sent through the postal system in the eastern United States in 2001, according to Gamboa. Biological hazard detection systems deployed at 282 postal facilities across the country since that time have not detected any anthrax (Cameron Mathews, Wyoming Tribune-Eagle, Oct. 17). Back to top

Legal Disputes Delay “Chemical Ali” Execution The man known as “Chemical Ali” remained in legal limbo as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki established a committee to investigate the legal situation around the planned execution of the former Saddam Hussein regime official, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Oct. 4). “Our understanding is that there is still discussion within the government of Iraq about how to proceed with this case and we are awaiting further clarification from Iraqi authorities,” said Mirembe Nantongo, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad (Agence France-Presse/Google News, Oct. 18). A helicopter has taken Ali Hassan al-Majid from a U.S. base to a location near a Baghdad prison gallows, an Iraqi police official said yesterday. Al-Majid ended up near the Kadhimiya prison gallows together with former Defense Minister Sultan Hashim Ahmad al-Tai, who has also been sentenced to death. Iraq’s high court upheld al-Majid’s death sentence on Sept. 4 for his role in the killings of as many as 180,000 Iraqi Kurds in the late 1980s.  He is believed to have ordered the use of chemical weapons against Kurds. The court ruling called for al-Majid and al-Tai to be executed together within a legally mandated 30-day period, but al-Maliki delayed the executions in observance of the holy month of Ramadan, which ended late last week. The U.S. military maintained custody of the men and planned to turn them over to Iraqi officials two hours before their executions, the Iraqi police official said. A U.S. military spokesman confirmed that al-Majid remained in U.S. custody but declined to say where he was being held (Andrew Kramer, New York Times, Oct. 17). Back to top       Russian Plant Destroys 21,000 Chemical Weapons The Russian Maradykovsky plant has destroyed 21,806 chemical weapons since beginning operations last year, Russia Today reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 7). A total of 96 munitions undergo chemical neutralization each day. Nearly one-fifth of Russia’s chemical stockpile is stored at the depot that houses the plant.  Moscow has pledged under the Chemical Weapons Convention to eliminate its world’s-largest arsenal by 2012, though analysts say it is unlikely to meet that deadline (Russia Today, Oct. 17). Back to top

U.S. Makes Missile Defense Offer to Russia Senior U.S. officials told Russian President Vladimir Putin last week that the Bush administration could keep its planned European missile defense installations from becoming operational until the two countries found consensus on the Iranian missile threat, the Financial Times reported (see GSN, Oct. 12). The offer came during Putin’s meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. “It is our intention to proceed with the construction of missile defense in Europe,” said U.S. Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell.  “But the pace at which it becomes operational could be adjusted to meet the threat.” Moscow has routinely blasted the U.S. intention to deploy a radar base in the Czech Republic and 10 missile interceptors in Poland.  Putin and other Russian officials have characterized the plan as a threat to their country’s security and have played down Iran’s missile capabilities. The Bush administration hopes that Russia would reconsider its assessment of the Iranian missile threat and continues to be worried by long-range missiles that could carry biological or chemical agents, the Times reported.  U.S. officials believe Iran could possess missiles capable of reaching Europe or the United States by 2015, while their Russian counterparts question that timeline.  However, Washington points out that the Iranian schedule for deployment of missiles following flight tests is significantly shorter than what is generally seen in Russia. Russian and U.S. officials have agreed to set criteria for determining Tehran’s missile capabilities (Financial Times, Oct. 17). A senior State Department official said yesterday that plans for the missile defense installations could be slowed if Iran halted uranium enrichment, Agence France-Presse reported. “Our real concern is not Russia,” said Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried. The missile shield is “intended against the major problem we see developing, which is Iran, and if that problem went away or attenuated we would obviously draw conclusions,” he said. “Our position is that our negotiations with the Poles and the Czechs will continue, but we don’t feel the need to spend money at quite as fast a rate for a threat that is attenuated,” Fried added.  “You don’t stay on autopilot, you use your brain and judge things as they actually emerge” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Oct. 17). A top Russian military official yesterday did not appear impressed by the latest U.S. proposals, which also included permitting Russian inspections of the missile defense sites, Reuters reported. “As head of the General Staff and an expert from the Russian side, I saw nothing novel in these proposals,” said Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, according to Interfax. “What novelty there was could be wrapped up by saying or radars in Gabala and Armenia were supposed to become an addition to their antimissile defense system,” he added. However, the head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said Russian officials indicated yesterday at a NATO meeting in Brussels that the proposals remain under consideration “because they did represent new ideas and concepts.” “It is a major step ahead from our perspective in terms of showing even more willingness to cooperate and even more willingness to be inclusive of our Russian allies,” said Lt. Gen. Henry Obering (Reuters/Washington Post, Oct. 17). There was “progress and a positive tone” at the meeting of officials from Russia and NATO nations on the U.S. missile defense plan, Fried said.  “We all agreed to keep working,” he said. “I’m not announcing huge breakthroughs.  I’m announcing a constructive meeting,” Fried added (Paul Ames, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Oct. 17). Back to top

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