North Korean and U.S. nuclear negotiators shake hands in September during talks on an agreement to disable North Korea’s nuclear weapons complex. North Korea is now attempting to prove it never ran a uranium enrichment program for nuclear weapons (Andy Wong/Getty Images). North Korea Looks to Resolve U.S. Uranium Enrichment Claim North Korea hopes to prove that it never operated a uranium enrichment program by opening equipment and documents to review by U.S. experts, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Nov. 10). “They have shown us some things, and we are working it through,” said one high-level U.S. official.  “We are having a discussion about things.  Some explanations make sense; some are a bit of a stretch.” “This is now in the process of being clarified,” according to a senior South Korean official.  “The North Koreans are now ready to prove that they did not intend to make a uranium enrichment program by importing some materials.”..Full Story

Congress Sets Chemical Weapons Disposal Deadline The fiscal 2008 defense funding bill approved last week in Congress requires the U.S. Defense Department to finish chemical weapons disposal by 2017, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 25)...Full Story

U.S. Has Plans to Prevent Nuclear Theft in Pakistan The United States some time ago made plans to prevent the theft of nuclear weapons in Pakistan, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 9)...Full Story

	Monday, November 12, 2007

Senate Gives Nunn-Lugar Program $80M Boost The U.S. Senate approved a defense funding bill Thursday that would provide $80 million beyond the Bush administration’s request for the Cooperative Threat Reduction program, U.S. Senator Richard Lugar announced (see GSN, Sept. 19). The legislation includes a total of $428 million for the 15-year-old Nunn-Lugar program that provides funding and technical assistance for securing or eliminating weapons and materials of mass destruction in the former Soviet Union and beyond. Lugar in April urged the Senate Armed Services Committee to allocate $100 million in additional funding to secure stores of deadly agents such anthrax, bird flu, hemorrhagic fever, plague and smallpox that could potentially end up in the wrong hands.  Lugar testified that additional funds would allow projects to begin in another seven countries. Fiscal 2008 CTR funds include $5 million in initial money for a chemical weapons incinerator in Libya.  U.S. negotiators last year refused to cover a greater share of the project’s expenses, hindering efforts to develop a bilateral weapons disposal agreement, Lugar said in a press release (see GSN, June 12). Libya is believed to possess 23 metric tons of mustard agent.  It also has enough chemical agent precursors to produce additional weapons, Lugar said. To date, the Nunn-Lugar program has supported deactivation or destruction of 7,191 strategic nuclear warheads, 662 ICBMs, 615 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 456 SLBM launchers, 30 ballistic missile-capable nuclear submarines, 155 strategic bombers and 906 nuclear air-to-surface missiles.  The Cooperative Threat Reduction program has also eliminated 485 ICBM silos, closed 194 nuclear test tunnels, secured 363 train shipments of nuclear weapons, boosted security at 12 nuclear weapons storage sites, and built and equipped nine biological monitoring stations. Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan — formerly the third, fourth and eighth largest nuclear powers — no longer possess nuclear weapons.  Nearly 58,000 former weapons scientists have been engaged in civilian work (Senator Richard Lugar release, Nov. 9). Back to top

North Korea Looks to Resolve U.S. Uranium Enrichment Claim North Korea hopes to prove that it never operated a uranium enrichment program by opening equipment and documents to review by U.S. experts, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Nov. 10). “They have shown us some things, and we are working it through,” said one high-level U.S. official.  “We are having a discussion about things.  Some explanations make sense; some are a bit of a stretch.” “This is now in the process of being clarified,” according to a senior South Korean official.  “The North Koreans are now ready to prove that they did not intend to make a uranium enrichment program by importing some materials.” Pyongyang claims that 150 tons of Russian aluminum tubes imported in 2002 and other materials were to be used for conventional weaponry and dual-use programs that did not involve weapons of mass destruction, according to the South Korean official. The Bush administration claimed in 2002 that intelligence showed that North Korea was preparing a uranium enrichment plant that by 2005 would operate alongside its known plutonium weapons program.  It said the regime acknowledged this effort, though Pyongyang denied ever making such an admission. The allegation undid the 1994 Agreed Framework, a  Clinton administration deal intended to halt North Korea’s nuclear program.  After years of negotiations, the Stalinist state this year accepted another denuclearization plan. The deal calls for it to disable and declare its nuclear program by the end of 2007.  Disablement of key facilities at the Yongbyon nuclear complex is under way. Evidence contradicting the U.S. allegation would constitute an intelligence embarrassment, the Post reported. The Institute for Science and International Security said in a 2007 report that “ample evidence” exists that North Korea sought to operate a limited centrifuge program.  It questioned allegations of a more widespread program to enrich uranium to weapon levels. If the aluminum tubes are shown to remain whole — rather than halved and reworked to become centrifuge casings — the U.S. case would be significantly undermined, said ISIS President David Albright.  He said, though, that North Korea would have a hard time explaining centrifuges it reportedly obtained from the nuclear black market ring operated by former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. “I think the North Koreans are making a big mistake” if they deny ever seeking uranium enrichment, Albright said.  “They are going to create a lot of trouble of they stick to this” (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Nov. 10). Meanwhile, the Bush administration reportedly said it would this year take North Korea off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, the Associated Press reported.  Pyongyang has sought removal as a reward for denuclearization. A recent deal says the move is to occur “in parallel with” North Korean nuclear disablement, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported. North Korea could end its participation in the six-party nuclear talks if it remains on the list, said South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon. “We should not give each other any justification of reneging from this agreement,” he said (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 10). Song was in Washington last week for talks with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.  He said they addressed moves to be taken in 2008 to further North Korean denuclearization, the Yonhap News Agency reported. “We need to have preparatory consultations on actions to be taken after Jan. 1 next year,” Song said.  “We discussed what we would give and receive at the dismantlement phase” (Yonhap News Agency, Nov. 9). Back to top       U.S. Has Plans to Prevent Nuclear Theft in Pakistan The United States some time ago made plans to prevent the theft of nuclear weapons in Pakistan, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 9). Little detail was available regarding the intelligence plans, but former officials said the intent would be to remove a weapon that appeared set to be acquired by terrorists.  Scenarios involve situations in which the Pakistani military is able to provide assistance or is unable to help, said Harvard University nonproliferation expert Matthew Bunn. “We’re a long way from any scenario of that kind,” he said.  “But the current turmoil highlights the need for doing whatever we can right now to improve cooperation and think hard about what might happen down the road.” Doubts about the stability of the government in Islamabad, continued operations by anti-Western insurgents in the country, and the proliferation activities of former top nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan have raised worries about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.  The concerns have been highlighted by the chaos that erupted after President Gen. Pervez Musharraf on Nov. 3 declared an emergency and suspended the country’s constitution. The Bush administration in recent years has poured tens of millions of dollars into nuclear security safeguards in Pakistan.  However, U.S. experts have not received direct access to sites that contain the nuclear weapons. “We can’t say with absolute certainty that we know where they all are,” said one former U.S. official.  “It could be very messy” if the United States attempts to take control of the weapons, the official said. The greatest perceived nuclear threat in Pakistan now is that weapons would be diverted to terrorists seeking to strike the United States rather than a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India. The country’s estimated 50 nuclear weapons are stored in separate parts at military installations, forcing thieves to “knock over two buildings to get a complete bomb,”  Bunn said.  “Theft would be more difficult to pull off, though presumably in a crisis that might change.” U.S. officials believe Pakistani nuclear security can handle a “fair amount of political commotion,” said former National Counterterrorism Center chief John Brennan.  However, that assessment could change in the face of a rapidly deteriorating situation. “There are some scenarios in which the country slides into a situation of anarchy in which some of the more radical elements may be ascendant,” he said.  “If there is a collapse in the command-and-control structure — or if the armed forces fragment — that’s a nightmare scenario.  If there are different power centers within the army, they will each see the strategic arsenal as a real prize.” Even if military security holds, some nuclear personnel might seek to profit by selling nuclear material or parts, said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. “If stability doesn’t return, you do have to worry about the thinking of the people with access to these things,” he said.  “As loyalties break down, they may look for an opportunity to make a quick buck.  You may not be able to get the whole weapon, but maybe you can get the core” (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, Nov. 11). Islamabad today reaffirmed its nuclear security, the Associated Press reported. “Pakistan’s nuclear program is very well guarded,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Sadiq (Associated Press/Washington Post, Nov. 12). Back to top       Experts Doubt Existence of Suitcase Nukes Experts question whether any suitcase-borne nuclear weapons actually exist, despite warnings from lawmakers and federal agencies and prominent roles in fictional thrillers, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 27, 2004). Creating such a weapon would be complicated and expensive, experts say.  Once built, it would need regular maintenance.  If there was ever a threat from a suitcase bomb, it has probably passed, according to counterterrorism authorities. “The suitcase nuke is an exciting topic that really lends itself to movies,” said Vahid Majidi, assistant director of the FBI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate.  “No one has been able to truly identify the existence of these devices.” This has not prevented public warnings.  “Perhaps the most likely threat is from a suitcase nuclear weapon in a rusty car on a dock in New York City,” Senator Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) said during one hearing. The Federal Emergency Management Agency said in a document posted online that an act of nuclear terrorism would “probably be limited to a single smaller ‘suitcase’ weapon.” The United States during the Cold War produced a “backpack nuke” that could be used in acts of sabotage against an enemy.  The portable weapons were never used and are now only museum pieces. Soviet defectors reported in the 1960s that the communist superpower had military intelligence officers carrying suitcase nuclear weapons.  Reports continued to drift in from former or defected Russian officials following the end of the Cold War.  Critics noted inconsistencies in the claims and U.S. officials have never seen such weapons. One person could not carry the significant amount of uranium and explosives needed for a weapon using the radioactive material in a suitcase, AP reported. Only 22 pounds of plutonium would be needed for a suitcase bomb.  However, it is likely that a nation with a plutonium reprocessing program would have to support the weapon’s creation.  That means the material in the device could be tracked back to the country.  “I don’t think any nation is willing to participate in this type of activity,” Majidi said. Theft of the fissile material is also unlikely, he said.  “It is very difficult for that much material to walk away,” Majidi added. A greater threat is that a terrorist would obtain nuclear material through theft or the black market and use it in an improvised weapon, according to Majidi and other officials. That weapon would be “like SUV-sized.  Way bigger than a suitcase,” said Laura Holgate, a vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (Katherine Shrader, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 11). Back to top       India’s Iran Ties Threaten Nuclear Deal With U.S. Some U.S. lawmakers said that India’s ties with Iran gives them pause about approving the Bush administration’s proposed nuclear trade agreement with New Delhi, Bloomberg reported today (see GSN, Nov. 8). The United States and India finalized the nuclear deal in July, but the accord must win the endorsement of Congress — along with approval from international bodies — before it can go into effect. Many U.S. lawmakers who supported the “123 agreement” with India in 2006 have protested India’s military training exercises with Iran as well as New Delhi’s recent plans to invest in an Iranian natural gas pipeline. “The potential support that existed at one time I'm not sure remains,” said Senator John Kyl (R-Ariz.), who backed the nuclear agreement last year but co-signed a letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in September expressing concern about relations between India and Iran. In October, three House Foreign Affairs Committee members co-sponsored a resolution stating that the final agreement might not establish sufficient limitations on Indian nuclear trade with third parties. The deal has to “be considered in the context of the growing military, political and commercial relationship between India and Iran at a time when responsible nations are curtailing their dealings with Iran,” Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), the ranking Republican on the committee, said in August. In a letter written to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh earlier this year, Ros-Lehtinen, committee Chairman Tom Lantos (D-Calif.) and other panel members expressed “grave concern” about matters including “India's strengthening relationship with Iran,” Bloomberg reported. India’s growing energy needs make it unlikely that the country would cut off ties with Iran that have persisted for years, said Karl Inderfurth, a former U.S. government specialist on the region and an international relations professor at George Washington University. Inderfurth said he had “no doubt” that congressional support for the nuclear agreement remains “as strong today as it has been.”  He added that India could secure approval from the Nuclear Suppliers Group and a required safeguards arrangement with the International Atomic Energy Agency as early as March 2008. Representative Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) said the deal is “in greater danger in New Delhi than it is in Washington, but we in Washington have concerns about the India-Iran relationship.” “I, for one, would like to see India even more vocal and more determined to make sure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons,” Sherman said (Viola Gienger, Bloomberg, Nov. 12). Meanwhile, the Indian parliament has decided to debate the nuclear deal when it convenes for its winter session on Thursday, Reuters reported. A joint panel that originally planned to hold talks Friday over the nuclear deal has postponed its session until a later date (Reuters/Washington Post, Nov. 10). Back to top       Iran, EU Plan Nuclear Talks EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana plans to meet with new top Iranian nuclear envoy Saeed Jalili in late November in another attempt to defuse international tensions over Tehran’s uranium enrichment program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 9). “The two sides agreed during a phone call on a meeting at the end of November,” Iranian state media quoted Javad Vaidi, deputy head of Iran’s supreme national security council, as saying (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Nov. 11). Solana’s office said today that no date has been set for the meeting, AFP reported.  He is scheduled this month to submit a report to the U.N. Security Council regarding negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Nov. 12). German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with U.S. President George W. Bush at his Texas ranch Saturday to discuss a strategy for dealing with Iran’s nuclear activities, AFP reported. Merkel has said that Germany, which now conducts more trade with Iran than any other European nation, would push for “further, tougher sanctions” if negotiations do not persuade Tehran to comply with Security Council demands that it halt its controversial nuclear activities (Agence France Presse III/Turkish Press, Nov. 10). France and Germany accept the potential for a new round of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said today after meeting with Merkel in Berlin, AFP reported.  Both leaders met with Bush over the last week to discuss the nuclear standoff. “We are on the same wavelength:  no nuclear weapons for Iran," Sarkozy told reporters. "Germany and France believe in the usefulness of sanctions” he said. Merkel said that there was “broad agreement” on the necessity to press China and Russia to back further sanctions against Iran.  The two countries have been reluctant to support a new round of penalties (Agence France Press IV/Spacewar.com, Nov. 12). Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday that there is no language in a recent U.S. Senate resolution that would permit the Bush administration to intervene militarily to halt Iran’s nuclear work, the Associated Press reported. Senators Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) sponsored the resolution that was approved by a 76-22 Senate vote in late September.  It calls for the U.S. State Department to list the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist entity. The resolution received wide bipartisan support, but a Democratic contingent expressed concern that it could later be put forward as a congressional authorization of military action against Iran. “There is nothing in this particular resolution that would suggest that from our point of view.  And, clearly, the president has also made very clear that he's on a diplomatic path where Iran comes into focus,” Rice said (Associated Press/Washington Post, Nov. 11). The head of U.S. Central Command, responsible for coordinating the military in the Middle East, said that a strike on Iran was not “in the offing” although diplomacy with Tehran has remained a “challenge,” the Financial Times reported today. “None of this is helped by the continuing stories that just keep going around and around and around that any day now there will be another war which is just not where we want to go,” said Adm. William Fallon. “Getting Iranian behavior to change and finding ways to get them to come to their senses and do that is the real objective.  Attacking them as a means to get to that spot strikes me as being not the first choice in my book,” he said (Financial Times, Nov. 12). The United States and Israel plan to establish two committees to coordinate a joint strategy against Iran’s nuclear program, AFP reported Friday. While one committee works with intelligence related to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the other group is expected to coordinate the campaign for further international sanctions (Agence France-Presse V/Google News, Nov. 9). Elsewhere, China said today that Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi is scheduled to visit Iran tomorrow to discuss the nuclear standoff, Reuters reported (Reuters, Nov. 12). Back to top       U.S. Deploys Nuclear Detonation Detection Satellite The U.S. Air Force yesterday launched a satellite carrying two payloads of Energy Department equipment for detecting a nuclear detonation, the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration said (see GSN, Feb. 17, 2004). The Air Force satellite was the last of its kind to be put into operation.  For more than 35 years, the model has been used to provide advance warning of nuclear explosions and missile launches. “[The National Nuclear Security Administration] and the Department of Energy have a long history of developing these components of the nuclear detonation detection system which is vital to U.S. national security,” said NNSA Deputy Administrator William Tobey in a press release.  “This launch marks not an ending, but a new beginning for this sophisticated and crucial system.” The agency is developing a new line of orbital nuclear sensors at the Sandia and Los Alamos national laboratories.  A new Global Positioning System satellite block and future Air Force Space-Based Infrared System satellites are expected to be outfitted with the new line of nuclear detection instruments (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, Nov. 11). Back to top       Utah Lawmakers Seek Restrictions on Nuke Tests Congress would have to approve any future nuclear tests under legislation being pressed by Utah’s two U.S. senators, the Salt Lake Tribune reported Thursday (see GSN, June 8). The bill, co-sponsored by Republican Senators Bob Bennett and Orrin Hatch, has already died twice in Congress. It would require congressional approve and detailed reviews prior to test blasts at the Nevada Test Site or other locations. The United States observes a voluntary moratorium on nuclear tests but has not joined the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. “While the current administration does not have plans to resume testing, Utahns want greater assurances against the policies of a future administration,” Bennett said. Utah Representative Jim Matheson (D) has introduced a House version of the legislation (Thomas Burr, Salt Lake Tribune, Nov. 8). Back to top

Congress Sets Chemical Weapons Disposal Deadline The fiscal 2008 defense funding bill approved last week in Congress requires the U.S. Defense Department to finish chemical weapons disposal by 2017, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 25). The Pentagon has previously indicated that work would not be completed before 2023.  The Chemical Weapons Convention requires the United States to eliminate its chemical arsenal by 2012. “It is vitally important that we keep the pressure on the Department of Defense to get the job done,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). McConnell’s home state houses the Blue Grass Army Depot, one of two chemical arsenal storage sites where construction has yet to begin on a weapons disposal facility.  The other is the Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado.  Construction is expected to begin in early 2008 of a plant that would chemically neutralize 523 tons of nerve and blister agents contained in munitions at Blue Grass, McConnell said. Chemical weapons elimination has finished at two U.S. sites and is under way at depots in Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Utah and Oregon. One observer said he believes the new deadline gives the Pentagon enough time to finish the job, AP reported. “Eliminating the risk that is posed to our own citizens by our own weapons of mass destruction has to be a No. 1 priority,” said Craig Williams, head of the Chemical Weapons Working Group (Bruce Schreiner, Associated Press I/Lexington Herald-Leader, Nov. 10). The defense bill provides $142 million for preparations of the Pueblo disposal facility, AP reported Saturday.  More than 2,600 tons of mustard agent is stored at the depot. It was not immediately known when President George W. Bush might sign the legislation (Associated Press II/FOX 31, Nov. 10). The bill includes $79 million in extra funding for preparations of the Blue Grass and Pueblo disposal plants, the Richmond, Ky., Register reported (Ronica Shannon, Richmond Register, Nov. 9). Back to top       U.S. Refuses to Turn Over Former Iraqi Officials The U.S. military today refused to turn over the man known as “Chemical Ali” and two other former senior Iraqi officials until Iraq’s government resolves internal legal and constitutional questions surrounding their planned executions, Reuters reported (see GSN, Oct. 19). In September, an Iraqi appeals court upheld the death sentences of former Hussein regime officials Ali Hassan al-Majid, former Defense Minister Sultan Hashim Ahmad al-Tai and former army commander Hussein Rashid Muhammed.  All were linked to the late-1980s Anfal campaign that prosecutors said resulted in the deaths of 180,000 Iraqi Kurds. “The Coalition Forces are not refusing to relinquish custody.  We are waiting for the GOI (government of Iraq) to come to consensus as to what their law requires before preparing a physical transfer,” said Col. Steve Boylan, spokesman for Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq. “Changes in Iraqi law subsequent (to) earlier executions have led to disagreement within the GOI as to what the applicable requirements now are,” Boylan said.  The three-member presidency council argues that is has the last say on carrying out death sentences while Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has asserted his authority and is pushing for the executions. “There continues to be differences in viewpoint within the government ... regarding the necessary Iraqi legal and procedural requirements for carrying out death sentences issued by the Iraqi High Tribunal,” he said. “Coalition Forces will continue to retain physical custody of the defendants until this issue is resolved in accordance with their laws,” Boylan said in an e-mail to Reuters (Ross Calvin, Reuters, Nov. 12). Al-Maliki yesterday expressed his determination to execute the prisoners, the Xinhua News Agency reported. Iraqi law required the men to be hanged within one month of their September sentencing. “We are determined that the law be applied and those (convicted) be handed over to [the] judicial system,” al-Maliki said.  “We have asked the side concerned (U.S. officials) to hand over the prisoners but regrettably the U.S. Embassy has a role to prevent handing over of them or tried to hand over some of them and delaying some others,” he said (Xinhua News Agency, Nov. 11). Back to top

South Korea Seeks Antimissile Laser Researchers from South Korea’s Defense Ministry are working with private defense firms to create a mobile laser that could shoot down incoming North Korean missiles, Agence France-Presse reported Saturday (see GSN, July 31). Seoul hopes to deploy the truck-mounted laser by 2010 as a defense against missiles and long-range artillery shells, according to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper. North Korea conducted test launches of seven missiles in July 2006 and has launched several short-range missiles this year, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Nov. 10). Back to top

Japan to Boost Monitoring of Radioactive Material A Japanese government agency plans to boost monitoring of 700 institutions that use radioactive isotopes that could be diverted for acts of terrorism, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 27). Revised regulations planned by the Education, Science and Technology Ministry would require medical facilities, industrial plants and other sites to prepare reports on their management of radioactive isotopes.  Reports could be required regarding handling or transfers of certain materials. There are believed to be roughly 5,000 Japanese entities that work with radioactive isotopes.  The new regulation would target facilities that house cesium 137 or other materials that could cause death through exposure in a matter or minutes or hours, Yomiuri reported (Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 11). Back to top

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